Museum Scenarios 2020

Bridget McKenzie

Three ways to model futures

1. Normative: desired future built on common ideals 2. Extrapolating: probable future built on trends 3. Scenarios: possible futures built on both ideals and trends

• Understand megatrends (or major driving forces) for your focal issue

• Distinguish between trends and megatrends.

• Understand the critical uncertainties for your issue

• Distinguish between gamechangers and Black Swans

Driving Forces and Uncertainties

To simplify it…

Gamechangers Trends

Black Swans Megatrends

Driving forces

Critical uncertainties

Scale, complexity and power

Trends affecting museums by 2020

For example:• Public resources as open commons• Traditional education challenged by open

and informal learning • Pressure for museums to have ever more

social impact• More democratic participation

Event at Santa Cruz Museum of Art & History

Megatrends affecting museums

• Unemployment in Europe • Austerity measures: cuts to museumsBUT

• Growth in cultural tourism• Rapid advances in technology (especially

‘hypernature’ – enhancing bioservices)

Gamechangers affecting museumsFor example, • 3D printing• Alternative currency• Wearable tech• Crowds (positive

but also a shadow side)

Black Swans affecting museums

…and everyone

• Global warming: two orders of magnitude greater in C21 than in last Ice Age; CO2 now at 400pmm

• Ecocide: biodiversity losses • Resource insecurity• Social awareness of injustice causing unrest

Scenarios need constant feeding

United Micro-kingdoms

Europe in 2020?

Europe2020EU’s ‘Smart, Sustainable, Inclusive’ goals to tackle the crisis by 2020:• 75% employment• 20% less GHG emissions, 20% more efficient• 40% completing higher education• Lift 20 million out of poverty

Can you use any of this to build your scenarios?

Tech in 2020?

Tech visions 2020‘Internet of Things in 2020’ is one of several. IoT2020: megatrends for this focal issue: • Data deluge: exacerbated by IoT• Energy shortage: devices must harvest own• Miniaturisation• Autonomic resources: self managing &

healing

Brain control interface

Museums2020• Museum Association project• Bold vision for future of UK museums • Help museums think long term• Doesn’t aim to predict future• Questioning the sector & public on role &

impact of museums on individuals, society & environment

How can we map future museum scenarios?

People’s museum

Green museum

Attraction museum

Unmuseum

DisruptionTradition

Mission: diversity and wellbeing

Mission: wealth creation

Social justice

Ecotopia

Growth is god

Techno-utopia

Without radical disruption…

People’s heritage destroyed through conflict.Syria now, what next?

Attraction museum with no visitors?

Green Museum: Biomuseo in Panama

Green Museums 2020?

• Using and promoting alternative currencies, or gifting • Constituted as community co-

operatives• Modelling the ‘circular economy’ • Education to develop future skills

such as bioempathy

Unmuseum: Museum as base or catalyst

Unmuseums 2020?• Unlimited by walls or traditions• Focus on what people will pay for• Partnerships generate profit for creative

industries?• 3D printing: museums in your home? • FabLab: tap museum knowledge of

materials and context?• Neuroscience and immersive memory

narratives: as therapy?

Ideal: The Disruptive Museum?Mix the Green and the Unmuseum?

A movement of disruptive museums?

• Global commons to conserve cultural and natural diversity, built on heritage

• Reflect on things: Promote wellbeing beyond consumption of things

• Act as hubs for sustainable communities: showcase and commission ecosocial innovation

• Contemporary art and creative tech as catalysts for change

Think the unthink-able

Talk to me on @bridgetmckthelearningplanet.wordpress.comwww.flowassociates.com