Breaking the Conflict Trap: On the Factors Contributing

to Civil War Recurrence

TIM KOVACHAMERICAN UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL SERVICE

MARCH 22, 2013

Overview

Introduction to research topic

Review of literature on civil conflict

recurrence

Describe variables, data sources

Discuss preliminary results

Provide final results, analysis

Conclusion

Introduction

Introduction

Research Question: Which factors are the most significant determinants of civil conflict recurrence within a ten-year period?

Literature Review Conflict recurrence literature breaks

into 3 groups:• Root causes of original conflict• How original conflict was fought• Settlement & peacebuilding process

Dependent Variable Dependent variable: civil conflict recurrence Analyzed civil conflicts ending from 1946-2001

• Tested whether conflicts relapsed within 10-year period• Included 5-year measure for sensitivity analysis

Courtesy of Uppsala Conflict Database

Independent Variables Conflict Termination variables

• Military Victory, Peace Agreement, Ceasefire Agreement

Conflict Context variables• Conflict duration, identity conflict, natural resource

conflict, UN peacekeeping operation Post-Conflict Development (interval variables):

• Infant Mortality Rate, Natural Resource Rents as % of GDP

Controls:• Population, Anocracy, Cold War conflict, African

state

Descriptive Statistics

Bivariate Statistics - Correlations

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression

Results Military victories more than 80% less

likely to relapse Natural resource conflicts 2-3x more

likely to recur Anocracies 3-4x more likely to

experience recurring conflict

Conclusions Military victory results may support

Luttwak’s thesis Natural resource conflicts more

intractable than other conflict types Democratization process fraught with

risks

Thank You

Tim KovachAmerican University,

School of International Servicetimothy.kovach@american.edu

Questions?