Book Industry TRENDS 2007 BookExpo America 2007 Working to create a more informed, empowered, and...
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Transcript of Book Industry TRENDS 2007 BookExpo America 2007 Working to create a more informed, empowered, and...
Book Industry TRENDS 2007BookExpo America 2007
Working to create a more
informed, empowered, and efficient
book industry supply chain.
Agenda Introduction Methodology and Sources of Data Key Highlights and Findings Questions and Answers
Introduction
Introduction
Michael Healy, Executive Director
Book Industry Study Group, Inc.
About BISG Industry’s leading trade association for
policy, standards and research. Develops and maintains standards that
enable effective communication among all segments of the industry supply chain.
Conducts research and gathers data on issues affecting the book industry as a whole.
BISG Mission
Working to create a more
informed, empowered, and efficient
book industry supply chain.
How We Accomplish Our Mission
Provide a forum for the book industry Policy development Best working practices Consensus on industry issues
Develop standards for effective industry supply chain communications
Conduct research on issues affecting the book industry
Research & Publications
Book Industry TRENDS 2007
The only complete view of today’s book-publishing industry
More than 250 pages of tables, charts, and analysis
An up-to-date report that covers the growing segment of small to mid-size publishers
Methodology and Sources of Data
Methodology and Sources of Data
Jeff Hayes, Vice President & General Manager, InfoTrends
Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research
Robert Wharton, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research
Tracking Small Publishers Most book publishing revenue data is on
large publishers Significant publishing activity by smaller
entities Self-publishers Trade Associations Small businesses Corporations Specialty publishers Non-profit organizations
Need new primary research to quantify Concerns about generating reliable data
The Long Tail of Book Publishers
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
1 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
Annual book publishing revenue
Rank OrderSource: BISG Under the Radar Research
The Long Tail …
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
15 115 215 315 415 515 615 715 815 915 1015 1115
Annual book publishing revenue
Rank OrderSource: BISG Under the Radar Research
The Long Tail …
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
80 180 280 380 480 580 680 780 880 980 1080
Annual book publishing revenue
Rank OrderSource: BISG Under the Radar Research
Profile of Small Publishers (<$50M)
Self-publisher,
39.7%
Independent publisher,
48.4%
Type of Publisher
N = 1117
11.9%Educational institutionCorporationAssociationRetailerDistributorPrinterGovernment
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Elhi
College
Religious
Juvenile
Professionalor scholarly
Adult trade
Category of Books Published
Percentage of Publishers
Small Publisher Key Research Findings 53% earn revenue from non-book activities
(e.g. speaking, seminars, consulting, editing, distribution, education)
Nearly 90% use Internet for marketing and/or sales Growing portion of revenue from paperback
(73.7% vs. 71.6%)
Lower average selling prices in 2006 vs. 2005 ($11.21 vs. $13.46)
Getting retailers to carry books and production costs are top concerns
Used books, competition, and returns are not of high concern
Small Publisher Market Projections
193,802
records of US entities
with an ISBN
Not in business31.6%
In business68.4%132,52661,276
Not active33.2%
Active Publishers66.8%
88,52843,999
MedianRevenue ($K)
$3.6
$65
$177
$637
$2,000
NA
X
67,907
6,434
7,442
1,860
4,651
233
Under $50K 76.7%
$50K to $99K 7.3%
$100K to $499K 8.4%
$500K to $999K 2.1%
$1M to $49.9M 5.3%
$50M+ 0.3%
Annual Revenue
ProjectedRevenue ($M)
$418
$1,321
$1,186
$9,302
NA
=
$246
$12,474Total
2005 2006 Change % ChangeBowker DB publishers 182,566 193,802 11,236 6.2%
% in business 63.8% 68.4% 4.6%Publishers in business 116,477 132,526 16,049 13.8%
Generated revenue in last year 74.8% 66.8% -8.0%Active publishers 87,125 88,528 1,403 1.6%
Small publishers (<$50M) 86,759 88,295 1,536 1.8%Revenue from small publishers ($M) $11,008 $12,474 $1,466 13.3%
Year Over Year Comparisons
Statistical variance is an issue Most increase from $1M to $49M publishers
Analyzed survey data by key segments Format Category Channel Foreign vs. domestic
Additional analysis to incorporate into TRENDS 2007 Eliminate double counting Apportion to TRENDS segments
Integrating Small Publisher Projections
Additional Data Sources U.S. Department of Commerce
Census Bureau
International Trade Administration
Monthly Retail and Book Store Data
The Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
U.S. Department of Education
Additional Data Sources Congressional Budget Office
Annual Reports & 10-Ks
Wall Street Reports
Industry Reporting Services
Major Publications
Trade Associations
R.R. Bowker
Additional Data Sources Financial Reporting Services
Data from NBER, Federal Reserve, etc.
Discussions with Industry Experts
Discussions with Book Publishers
Discussions with Academic Researchers
ARIMA Models
Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages
Time series forecasting tool
Uses lags and shifts in historical data to uncover patterns and predict the future
Key Highlights and Findings
Key Highlights and Findings
Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research
Summary Data
ALL BOOKS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Publishers' Net Dollar SalesMillions USD$ 34,628.90 35,686.10 37,085.20 38,298.00 39,595.90 40,732.50% change 3.2% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 2.9%
Publishers' UnitsMillions 3,085.80 3,102.70 3,148.10 3,180.00 3,205.70 3,223.20% Change 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5%
Domestic Consumer ExpendituresMillions USD$ 51,919.80 53,615.50 55,695.80 57,455.10 59,332.80 61,053.70% change 3.3% 3.9% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9%
ESTIMATES PROJECTIONS
Adult Trade
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
Juvenile Trade
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
Mass Market Paperback
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
Religious
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
Professional Publishing
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
College Textbooks
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
Elhi
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
University Press
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
Standardized Tests
For additional statistics from
Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html
to purchase a copy of the publication.
Thank you
Questions?
For more information:
Book Industry Study Group, Inc.
(646) 336-7141
www.bisg.org