BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook...share of global EV market in 2030: 72% 13 Electric Vehicle...

1 Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 – Statkraft Nordic Launch

BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook

The Electric Vehicle Outlook is BloombergNEF’s annual long-term forecast for road

transport. It looks at how electrification, shared mobility, autonomous driving and

other trends will impact transport from today to 2040.

Segments:

• Light duty passenger vehicles

• Shared mobility fleets

• Commercial vehicles

• Buses

• Two/three-wheeled vehicles

Impacts:

• Automotive sales and fleet

• Oil markets

• Electricity markets

• Infrastructure

• Battery metals and materials

• Emissions


1. Covid-19: EV sales drop in 2020 but hold up better than combustion vehicles and rebound

faster

10 findings from EVO 2020


Source: BloombergNEF

Covid-19: passenger EV sales holding up better than internal combustion vehicle sales

Region Country Internal combustion passenger car sales Passenger electric vehicles sales

APAC China -45% -60%

Japan -10% -17%

S. Korea -7% +26%

AMER U.S. -13% +5%

EMEA Germany -25% +148%

U.K. -34% +127%

France -39% +123%

Italy -36% +100%

The Netherlands -13% +22%

Sweden -25% +87%

Norway -42% +4%

Year-on-year change in vehicles sales, 1Q 2020

Drop - more than 50% Drop - less than 50%

Rise - more than 50% Rise - less than 50%


0.71.3 1.6 1.3

1.9

2.9

3.9

0.4

0.60.5

0.4

0.7

1.1

1.6

0.71.1

1.92.1

1.7

2.6

4.0

5.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Million

Plug-in hybrid Battery electric

Source: BlombergNEF. Note: Based on Covid-19 Scenario 2.

Covid-19: Updated short-term passenger EV sales forecast

Global passenger EV sales forecast by type

EV share of global

sales in 2023: 7%


● Government stimulus: Priorities, politics, and trade-offs

● Consumer attitudes: To public transit, ride hailing, and private car ownership

● Automaker strategies: What to restart when?

● Covid-19 and urban air quality: clean air push?

Covid-19: Open questions


Source: BBC

● Government stimulus: Priorities, politics, and trade-offs

● Consumer attitudes: To public transit, ride hailing, and private car ownership

● Automaker strategies: What to restart first?

● Covid-19 and urban air quality: clean air push?

Open questions



faster

2. Two tipping points: EV price parity and infrastructure slowdown



Source: BNEF

1: EV price parity: By mid-2020s for most segments

Two tipping points

2: Infrastructure slowdown: In mid-2030s for most countries


Source: BNEF

Sales Fleet

Two tipping points

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Million

Internalcombustion

Fuel cell

Plug-inHybrid

BatteryElectric 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Billion

Batteryelectric

Plug-inhybrid

Fuel cell

Internalcombustion

EV share of global

sales in 2040 58%EV share of global fleet

in 2040 31%

Global passenger vehicles by drivetrain


Source: BNEF, Marklines

The lessons from the Nordics?

EV share of Norwegian passenger vehicle sales

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EV share of new sales

Many years to get to 10%

5 years to go from from 10% to +50%



faster


3. China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.



Source: BNEF. Includes battery electrics and plug-in hybrids

China and Europe pull further ahead of the U.S.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2015 2020 2025 2030

%

China

Europe

U.S.

S. Korea

Japan

Global

RoW

India

EV share of new passenger vehicle sales

Europe and China

share of global EV

market in 2030:72%


Source: BNEF, European Commission

EU policy is driving EV adoption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

gCO2/km

Historicalemissions

Target

Historical and target average vehicle CO2 emissions in Europe


Source: BNEF, Marklines. Shaded region shows the range of EV market share needed to hit EU CO2 targets in the given year.

EU policy is driving EV adoption

EV share of sales needed to hit EU automotive CO2 emissions targets

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

EV share of new vehicle sales

PHEV

BEV


Source: BloombergNEF U.S. Census Bureau, 2018.

……But the U.S. catches up in the 2030s

8.7%

33.0%

37.3%

21.0%

~120 million U.S.

households

No vehicle

1 vehicle

2 vehicles

3 or morevehicles

Cars per U.S. household



faster



4. Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s



Source: BNEF

Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2015 2017 2019

Million

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2015 2017 2019

Million

0

80

160

240

320

2015 2017 2019

Million

JapanChina Europe U.S. S.Korea RoW

Commercial vehicles Buses Two-wheelers

Current fleet of electric:


Source: BNEF

Several ‘killer apps’ for electrification are emerging for the 2020s

Commercial vehicles Buses Two-wheelers

<0.5% 16% 20%

Tipping point: Next 2-3 years Reached Reached

Current EV

fleet share:



faster




5. Overall passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036. Internal combustion vehicle sales have

already peaked




Demand for mobility keeps rising….

Global annual kilometers travelled by the passenger vehicle fleet by region

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

RoW

India

U.S.

Europe

China

Trillion kilometers



…but vehicle sales peak

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

RoW

India

U.S.

Europe

China

Million

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Robotaxis

Sharedvehicles

Privatevehicles

Million

Global annual passenger vehicle sales by region Global annual passenger vehicle sales by type


Source: BloombergNEF, United Nations, World Bank. Note: Country income groups come from the World Bank.

Why do vehicle sales peak?

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

RoW (33%)

India (19%)

Global (17%)

Australia (16%)

U.S. (4%)

U.K. (3%)

S. Korea (0%)

China (-8%)

Germany (-12%)

Japan (-16%)

100 = 2020 levels

Growth in population of 16-59 year olds

100

110

120

130

140

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

India (+33%)

China (+24%)

Global (+15%)

S. Korea (+12%)

U.S. (+5%)

U.K. (+5%)

Germany (+5%)

Australia (+4%)

Japan (+2%)

100 = 2020 levels

Growth in urbanization



Total passenger vehicle sales peak in 2036 Combustion vehicles sales have already peaked

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Million

Internalcombustion

Fuel cell

Plug-inhybrid

Batteryelectric

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

%

Electric

Internalcombustion

Fuel cell

Global annual passenger vehicle sales by

drivetrain

Global share of total annual passenger vehicle sales

by drivetrain



faster





already peaked

6. Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030s



Fuel cell vehicle sales have an impact on some commercial segments in the 2030sLight commercial FCV sales Medium commercial FCV sales Heavy commercial FCV sales

FCV share of light commercial fleet FCV share of medium commercial fleet FCV share of heavy commercial fleet

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Thousand

Rest of World

India

South Korea

Japan

U.S.

Europe

China0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Thousand

Rest of World

Japan

India

S. Korea

Europe

U.S.

China0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Thousand

Rest of World

India

South Korea

Japan

U.S.

Europe

China

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

%

S. Korea

U.S.

Japan

Europe

China

RoW

India

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

%

China

South Korea

U.S.

Europe

Japan

Rest of World

India0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Share of fleet

Japan

South Korea

Europe

China

U.S.

Rest of World

India



faster





already peaked


7. Adoption of new EV battery chemistries accelerates, costs continue to drop




faster





already peaked



8. Much more charging infrastructure needed, but most is at home/work



Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Public includes Tesla destination and supercharger network even though this is semi-private.

Current public charging connectors installed globally

Much more charging infrastructure needed, but most is at home/work

49141

214300

516

70

94

149

202

255

31

44

48

61

72

73 96131

185

317

456

628

927

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Thousand

RoW

Japan

U.S.

Europe

China

Public charging:

Today: 1 million connectors

By 2040: 12 million needed



faster





already peaked




9. Oil demand from passenger vehicles has already peaked



Source: IEA, BNEF. Note: Includes biofuels. Advancements include fuel efficiency improvements and alternative drivetrains.

Passenger vehicle oil demand has already peaked.Overall oil demand from road transport peaks in 2031

0

10

20

30

40

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040

Million barrels per day

ImprovedefficiencyEV penetration

Shared mobilityEVO 2020 trajectory

Trajectory without advancements

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040

Million barrels per day

RoW

Australia

S. Korea

India

Japan

Europe

China

U.S.

Passenger vehicle oil demand

forecast

Oil demand avoided by privately owned electric and

fuel cell passenger vehicles, and shared mobility


Source: BNEF. Note: Uses general electricity demand projections from BNEF’s June 24, 2019 “New Energy Outlook 2019” research note. Electric vehicle electricity

demand includes demand from passenger EVs, commercial EVs, e-buses (municipal and non-municipal) and electric two-wheelers. Rest of World includes Australia

and other rest of world. Percentages refer to the increases in electricity demand caused by EVs in 2030 and 2040.

Impact on electricity demand is limited

3% 7%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

TWh

2% 10%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

TWh

2% 9%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

TWh

China Europe U.S.

020,000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040General electricity demand Electric vehicle electricity demand

Electricity demand with and without EVs


Source: BNEF. Note: Light commercial EVs are considered within home and public infrastructure. 11kW hardware is assumed to encompass 7-22kW chargers.

The EV load profile gets flatter as more segments electrify

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

% of electricity demand

E-buses

Heavy commercial

Medium commercial

Light commercial

Robotaxi

Shared passenger

Private passenger

24-hour electricity demand by EV segment in 2035 based on "dumb" charging curves



faster





already peaked





10. Emissions are still not on track



Source: BNEF. Includes power sector emissions from EVs

Emissions are still not on track

-50% 0% 50% 100%

India

RoW

China

Australia

Japan

South Korea

Europe

U.S.

%

0

2

4

6

8

10

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

GtCO2

Emissionsavoided byEVs and fuelcell vehicles

Roadtransportemissions

Growth in road transport CO2 emissions by

country, 2018-2040

Road transport emissions avoided by the penetration of

electric and fuel cell vehicles



faster





already peaked





10. Emissions are still not on track



● Charging infrastructure business models

● Aggregation, grid integration and forecasting tools

● New mobility business models

● Marine: electric and hydrogen applications

● Other?

Opportunities in transformation

Where are the opportunities for the market leaders?


Thank you


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