BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT 2015 · PDF fileBLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT 2015...

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT 2015 NEW YORK 14 APRIL 2015

Michael Liebreich, Chairman

of the Advisory Board

Twitter: @mliebreich

1 Michael Liebreich, New York, 14 April 2015 @MLiebreich #BNEFSummit

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

46%

45%

36%

17%1%

31%

16%-8%

-9%15%

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital

energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-14 ($BN)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind30%

50%

27%

12% -9%

35%

7% -7%

-8%12%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind


Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital

energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-14 ($BN)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind30%

50%

27%

12% -9%

35%

7% -7%

-8%12%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

30%

50%

27%

12% -9%

35%

7% -7%

-8%12%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind


WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2010–14 ($2014 / BARREL)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World Bank

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Note: WTI crude oil prices adjusted to inflation


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, 2000–14 ($2014 / BARREL)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World

Bank Note: WTI crude oil prices adjusted to inflation

or ?


Images: Bloomberg

OIL PRICE CRASH – V OR L?

Abdalla El-Badri, Secretary General,

OPEC

“If you don’t invest in oil

and gas, you will see

more than $200”

You won’t see $100 oil

again “for a long time”

Bob Dudley CEO, BP


Source: The Economist

THE ECONOMIST COVER, “SHEIKHS VERSUS SHALE”, DECEMBER 2014


0m

2m

4m

6m

8m

10m

12m

14m

16m

18m

20m

22m

1970

1972

19

74

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

19

92

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

20

06

2008

2010

2012

2014

Production

Consumption

Source: EIA

US PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION, 1970–2014 (BARRELS PER DAY)


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

US VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED (MILLION MILES)

Source: US Federal Highways Administration

Gap to trend:

17% in 10

years

Note: Moving 12-month total of vehicle miles travelled in the US. Created from monthly data, and not seasonally adjusted


Source: US Department of Transportation NHTSA

US TOTAL VEHICLE FLEET FUEL EFFICIENCY, 1990–2014 (AVERAGE MILES PER GALLON)

25.424.5 24.5

31.6

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

20

04

2006

20

08

2010

2012

2014

25.424.5 24.5

31.6

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Improvement

60% in 13 years

http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/June_2014_Summary_Report.pdf


Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until

they're within reach of the average family.

THE FUTURE IS ELECTRIC

Images: BMW, Detroit Electric, 2015, courtesy of EVASD

The Washington

Post 1915


ELECTRIC VEHICLE UPTAKE

Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE

WORLDWIDE, 2013

1.2 billion

ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN

USE WORLDWIDE, 2014

0.75 million (to scale)


Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT

LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE

2010

H1 2014

m=21.6% 0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

His

torica

l p

rice

(U

SD

/Wh)

Cumulative production (MWh)

Li-ion EV battery

pack


Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT

LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE

1976

1998 2004

2014

2008

2010

H1 2014

m=21.6%

m=24.3%

1988

0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

His

torica

l p

rice

(U

SD

/W, U

SD

/Wh)

Cumulative production (MW, MWh)

Crystalline Si PV

module

Li-ion EV battery

pack


Photo: Reuters/NASA

BEIJING, CHINA


Photo: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

SHENZHEN, CHINA


Photo: TheMarySue

SHANGHAI, CHINA


Photo: JE Poirrier, Creative Commons

DELHI, INDIA


Photo: Greenpacks

HONG KONG


Photo: Bloomberg

SINGAPORE


Photo: Matt Champlin / Flickr

CAIRO, EGYPT


Photo: Shinil GCP

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO


Photo: Thomas Hobbs

SAO PAULO, BRAZIL


Photo: UCLA

LOS ANGELES, USA


Photo: EarthInTransition

MOSCOW, RUSSIA


Photo: D€NNI$/Creative Commons

PARIS, FRANCE


Photo: HHRCA

LONDON, UK


URBAN TRANSPORT REVOLUTION

Images: Transport for London, Zipcar, Uber, Proterra


OIL AND GAS PRICES: HENRY HUB, NBP, BAFA, AND NE LNG, 2004-2015 (US$/MM BTU)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ICAP, Platts Note: Japan-Korea Marker is based on broker assessments of the spot price of un-contracted LNG

cargoes delivered into the Northeast Asia market.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

NBP (UK)

Henry Hub (US)

BAFA (Germanyborder price forRussian gas)

North East Asia LNG

~ $5 spread

to Henry Hub

~ $5 spread to

Henry Hub? > $8 spread

to Henry hub


US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, 2000–14

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2005 2010 2015

Marcellus

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Utica

Other Shale

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2005 2010 2015

Marcellus

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Utica

Other Shale

Canada

Iran

Qatar

Norway0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2005 2010 2015

Marcellus

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Utica

Other Shale

Gas rig count

Total rig count

Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

BCFD Number


Note: For the underlying data to this chart, go to BI LNGGG<GO> Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

LNG EXPORT CAPACITY BY COUNTRY/REGION (MMTPA)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

8002

00

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

Other

North America

Russia

East Africa

West Africa

Australia

Other

North America

Russia

West Africa

North Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Australia

Qatar

Demand

Pre

-FID

O

pe

rati

on

al,

un

der

co

nstr

uc

tio

no

r p

os

t-F

ID


RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION, 2013 (%)

Source: Oxford Energy, China Electricity Council, BDEW, UK Govt, REE, NRCAN, EIA, USEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

No data

<5%

5-10%

11-20%

21-40%

>50%

Brazil

71%

Germany

28%

India

6%

China

22%

Spain

43%

US

13%

Australia

16%

UK

19%

S. Africa

2%

Canada

76%

Japan

11%


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

6-CENT SOLAR – THE NEW NORMAL?

Name:

Event:

Record:

Usain Bolt

100m

9.58 seconds

Name:

Event:

Record:

Paddy Padmanathan

Solar PV

US$5.84c



FOSSIL FUEL CLEAN ENERGY

GLOBAL GROSS POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS, 2010–30 (GW)

105

141

110

91

62 64

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Oil

Gas

Coal

Forecast

93

143

164

208

242

279

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydro

Nuclear

Solar

Wind

Biomass& waste

Geotherm.

Forecast

Note: Underlying data is from GREMO 2014



US & CHINA CAPACITY BUILD OUT (GW)

792 810

302575

1,094

1,384

2014 2030

Low-carbon

Fossil fuels

US

9201,163

442

1,438

1,362

2,601

2014 2030

Low-carbon

Fossil fuels

China

Existing

low-carbon

Fossil fuels

996

442

Incremental

low-carbon

575 302

442

Incremental

low-carbon

273

China’s low-carbon

additions 2015-2030

~ 90% of US 2015

capacity



RENEWABLES IN INDIA, 2006–22 (GW)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Upto2006

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Solar 0.6 GW/year

Wind 4.7GW/year




0

50

100

150

200

250

Upto2006

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Solar 0.6 GW/year

Wind 4.7GW/year

Solar 6 GW/year

Wind 3 GW/year




0

50

100

150

200

250

Upto2006

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

X

Solar 0.6 GW/year

Wind 4.7GW/year

Solar 6 GW/year

Wind 3 GW/year

X

Modi target:

Solar 12 GW/year

Wind 8 GW/year


NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS – HISTORIC CONSTRUCTION

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; IAEA, World Nuclear Association

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

Chart Title

0-10

11-19

20-39

40-59

60+

566 nuclear

power stations

ever built


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; IAEA, World Nuclear Association

NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS – CURRENT CONSTRUCTION

66 nuclear power

stations under

construction

Chart Title

1

2

3-5

6-9

10+


Source: ACEEE, NAESCO, LBNL, CEE, IAEE,

ANEEL, BNDES, KfW, Emmy, ADEME, DECC,

OFGEM, GME, GSE, AEEG, IDAE, EMCA,

JAESCO, Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT VIA FORMAL FRAMEWORKS, 1990–2013 ($BN)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '13e

Japan

China

Spain

Italy

UK

France

Germany

Brazil

Canada

US

Note: Nominal dollars. Includes residential, commercial and industrial spending. For more details, see our H1 2014 Global

Energy Efficiency Market Outlook

https://www.bnef.com/Insight/10039

https://www.bnef.com/Insight/10039


Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004–FY2025

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260

FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24

TWh AUD trillion

GDP

Historical




0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260


TWh AUD trillion

GDP

Historical

2010




0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260


TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

Historical

2010




0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260


TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

2012

Historical

2010




0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260


TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

20122013

Historical

2010




0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

160

180

200

220

240

260


TWh AUD trillion

GDP

2011

20122013

2014

Historical

2010


THE AGE OF

PLENTY…

…THE AGE OF

COMPETITION


Images: Various; Wikimedia

OIL AND GAS MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS


IMPACT OF LOWER OIL AND GAS PRICES ($BN/YR)

Note: Calculation based on $5 drop in natural gas price and $50 drop in oil price; based on

import/export volumes 2011-2013, excluding impact of changes in volumes since then Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; CIA Fact Book; IEA; EIA; World Bank; IMF

??? Asia

+ 393 billion

Europe

+ 300 billion

USA

+ 180 billion

Latin America

- $60 billion

Canada

- $40 billion

Norway

- $53 billion

North Africa

- $62 billion

Middle East

- $357 billion

Sub-Saharan Africa

- $89 billion

Russia & C. Asia

- $218 billion


Note: Data comes from the IEA Global Statistics database. Where actual 2013 data was unavailable, IEA produced an estimate

figure Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

COAL DEPENDENCY, G20, 2013 (% OF PRIMARY ENERGY)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

G20 average 33%


Notes: Bloomberg New Energy Finance base case build forecasts; historical build from EIA Form 860 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

US CAPACITY BUILD, 2008–20 (GW)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Renewables Other

Up to 23GW of US

coal capacity coming

offline in 2015


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Chinese Government

CHINA COAL CONSUMPTION, 2000-14 (MILLION TONS)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


In the old world, I’m selling

whale oil.

In the developing world,

I’m selling crack cocaine.

CONFESSIONS OF A COAL TRADER

Anonymous

coal trader


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: Prices have been adjusted for inflation Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

ARA AND NEWCASTLE COAL PRICE 2007–15 (2014 US$/TONNE)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ARA

Newcastle


Note: Values as of 01 April 2015; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013–15 YTD

0

50

100

150

200

Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15

S&P 500 Oil & Gas

Stowe Global Coal

NEX


PARIS COP 21 – DECEMBER 2015


Notes: Countries’ inclusion of land-use and forestry in emissions calculations vary. China’s 2020 target estimated from

announced emissions intensity target per unit GDP, and no absolute emissions level set for its 2030 pledge.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,

UNFCCC

EMERGING COMMITMENTS FOR COP21 IN PARIS (MTCO2E)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2030 targettrajectory


Historicalemissions

EU

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



Historicalemissions

Japan

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



Historicalemissions

US

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


2020 targetlevel

Historicalemissions

China


● System right-sizing

● Sale of surplus power

● Resilience

(back-up)

● System management

and maintenance


GRID DEFECTION – I DON’T THINK SO

● Distribution charges

● Resilience

(black-out)

● Sense of

independence

Don’t defect? Defect?


Having a solar panel that isn’t

connected to the grid is like

having a computer that’s not

connected to the Internet.

GRID DEFECTION?

Ellen Hayes, PG&E

spokeswoman

Picture: Ellen Hayes


0

100

200

300

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Note: Other includes taxes, levies, carbon costs, profits

COMPOSITION OF RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY TARIFFS ACROSS THE WORLD, 2008-2014 (EUR/MWh)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Other

Network costs

Wholesale power

New South Wales (Aus)

Germany

UK

Spain

Denmark

0

100

200

300

400

2010 2011 2012 20130

100

200

300

400

20092010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

100

200

300

400

200920102011201220132014

0

100

200

300

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: Australian Energy Regulator, Eurostat Bloomberg New Energy Finance


POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN

Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand




Old world

$$$





Old world

$$$

Age of plenty





Old world

$$$

$$$

Age of plenty





Old world

Age of plenty $$$





Old world

$$$ Age of plenty


EON SPLIT



ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW ENTRANTS - STARTUPS

Behavioural

engagement

Smart thermostats,

home automation

Load disaggregation

Solar PV and

energy monitoring

HEM tools

Smart

thermostats

Smart

thermostats

Connected home

/ IoT

Load

disaggregation Heating controls



ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW SERVICES FROM INCUMBENTS

Home energy

management

HIVE home

heating

controls

Virtual mobile

operator – 80k

customers

Smart home

partnerships/investment

IHD and smart

thermostat

program

BEMS for DR

and energy

efficiency

Smart thermostats

and load

disaggregation

Integrated smart homes

Smart lighting

/ home

automation

Smart

thermostats and

‘behavioural’ DR

Residential

energy

storage

HEM tools

and DR

Smart

thermostats to

reduce churn



ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW ENTRANTS - MAJORS

HEMS

platform

DR and retail

services

Energy supply and

services

Smart home

hubs

Registered

energy supplier

Smart home

platform (AT&T)

Home

automation HomeKit

1m connected

home customers

Digital Life

connected

home service

Nest

acquisition Home

automation

Home automation



ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW SERVICE BUNDLES

Bundled insurance,

telecoms and energy

Bundled electricity

telecoms services

Bundled electricity,

entertainment and

home automation

Bundled telecoms and

energy

Bundled telecoms,

energy. Residential

energy storage.

Bundled telecoms,

electricity supply

beginning in 2016

Bundled telecoms,

electricity and gas


ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD

HIVE home

heating

controls

Residential

energy

storage

Smart

thermostats to

reduce churn

BEMS for DR

and energy

efficiency

Digital Life

connected

home service

1m connected

home customers

Smart home

platform (AT&T)

Smart home

hubs

???

Bundled electricity,

entertainment and

home automation

HEMS

platform

DR and retail

services

Energy supply and

services

Virtual mobile

operator – 80k

customers

Registered energy

supplier Bundled telecoms and

energy supply

Smart home

partnerships/investment

Smart lighting

/ home

automation

Bundled telecoms,

electricity supply

beginning in 2016

Bundled insurance,

telecoms and energy

Bundled electricity

telecoms services

HEM tools

and DR

IHD and smart

thermostat

program

Home energy

management


APPLE’S SOLAR SHOPPING SPREE

$850 billion

Over 25 years


Images: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

SELECTED COMMERCIAL BUILDERS OR BUYERS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY


CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN)


Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume

capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in

countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was

commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q1 2015 figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an

annual basis only.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

30% 50%

27%

12% -9%

35%

-7% -8% 12% 7%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind


Note: This shows the percentage yield of 30 year generic government bond rates downloaded on 09/04/2015 from the

Bloomberg Terminal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

YIELD ON 30-YEAR BONDS, 1977-2015 (%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

US

Eurozone

UK

Japan

Italy

Germany

France


Photo: ZDF / Jan Böhmermann?

CAVEAT – GREXIT



Bloomberg Terminal

GREEN BOND ISSUANCE, 2007-14 ($BN)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e

ABS

Project

US municipal

Labelledcorporate

Supranational,sovereign &agency


EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES, 2015

???

Operating

Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: The size of each circle is proportional to GHG emissions covered. Based off the CA ETS covering 334 million tonnes of

CO2 per year as of 2015

300 Gt

CO2/year

New Zealand

Tokyo

Republic of Korea

Kazakhstan

EU ETS

Ca ETS Switzerland

RGGI

Quebec

7x Chinese pilot

projects


EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES, 2015

???

Operating

Under

consideration

Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: The size of each circle is proportional to GHG emissions covered. Based off the CA ETS covering 334 million tonnes of

CO2 per year as of 2015

300 Gt

CO2/year

New Zealand

National Japanese

system

Tokyo

Republic of Korea

National Chinese

System

Russia

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Turkey

EU ETS

Ca ETS Switzerland

RGGI

Quebec

British

Columbia

Manitoba

Ontario

Mexico

Chile

Brazil

Sao Paulo

Rio de

Janiero

Thailand

7x Chinese pilot

projects








annual basis only.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

30% 50%

27%

12% -9%

35%

-7% -8% 12% 7%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1







annual basis only.

-15%

30% 50%

27%

12% -9%

35%

-7% -8% 12% 7%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1






annual basis only. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Capex of top 20 quoted oil

and gas companies plus top

20 quoted coal companies

-15%

30% 50%

27%

12% -9%

35% 7%

-7% -8% 12%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015 Q1

Expected

Large hydro

Other

Solar

Wind


CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance


CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN)

Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

?

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driving change in the energy system

[email protected]

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