Black Swan Disaster Scenarios

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Post-Fukushima Disaster Research

01 "Disaster Information WG" http://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/nankai/taisaku_wg (current)

M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 2/22...

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The Scenario Method

• hand-made scenarios

• region- and event-specific

• scenarios are improved via local drills


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Problems

• rare events are completely ignored

• BigData does not help -- so it is not used

• very little room for automation -- mostly manual work


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Blackswan Scenarios


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BlackSwan : The Definition

.Black Swans..

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... are extremely rare but also extremely heavy impact events02

• other names: low predictability events, rare events, etc.

• BlackSwans are already defined in engineering 03 04

• BlackSwan scenarios focus on rare events

03 L.McGinty+1 "Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds" Springer LNAI vol.5650 (2009)

04 A.Nafday "Consequence-based structural design approach for black swan events" Elsevier J. Structural Safety (2011)

02 N.Taleb "The black swan: the impact of highly improbable" Penguin (2008)


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The BlackSwan Scenario : Basics

Occurrence Frequency

Increasing Impact

1 2


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Scenario (1) Combine and Review.Event .....

....can be primitive or complex (consist of other events)

Occurrence Frequency

Increasing Impact

1 2

• fix a swan method is used inconstruction -- resilient design04

• the main problem is todiscover BlackSwans

04 A.Nafday "Consequence-based structural design approach for black swan events" Elsevier J. Structural Safety (2011)


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Scenario (1) Event Order• complexity of BlackSwan events should have finite order

Order

1

2

3

Enough!


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Components


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Components (1) Rating

• w is weight, F(v, t) is the evaluationof an event within a time window,occurrence probability (rank) then is:

Rk =∑i=1..t

wiFk(v, t), (1)

• w is a distribution (matrix math)

• potential (risk) of a given event:

Pk = |Rk,i − Rk,i−1|. (2)

• the entire blackswan scenario can beevaluated as.

E = var({Pk}). (3)

• evolution of that evaluation in time:

EVO = var({Et}). (4)

• the conventional bin packing problemcan be applied to potential (of risk):

minimize∑i=1,n

∑j=1,m

Pij. (5)

06 T.Aven "Identification of safety and security critical systems and activities" J of Rel. Eng. Sys. Safety (2009)

07 R.Kennet+1 "Quality, Risk and the Taleb Quadrants" IBM T.J.Watson Research Chapter (2009)


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Components (2) Hotpots• 4 sets: normal versus hot and baseline hot versus Flash Crowdhot

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e)09 M.Zhanikeev+1 "Popularity-Based Modeling of Flash Events in Synthetic Packet Traces" CQ研 (2012)


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System Design


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BlackSwan Scenario : Specs

• create and maintain BigData• discover BlackSwans by processing BigData

• use automation as much as possible


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BlackSwan Scenario : Design• at least 3 classes of textual soup that makes events

Accident Something happened at Site A Causes Part A, Part B, Part C, … Human Factors… All Parts Part Z, Part Y, …, Human Manuals, … Rating

Blackswan scenario management platform

Storage, Database

Human judgment

Auto judgement

Report on site


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BlackSwan Discovery


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BlackSwan Discovery Automation


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BlackSwan Automation (2)• complexity is reduced by using humans as trainers

A very complex system

A less complex system

Tell what to do

Robot

Human

Search the space

Robot

Human

Search the space What

should I do?

Guide through feedback


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BlackSwan Autumation (3)

Rebot

(careless) Input

Human Human

{structure}

(pinpoint) Select

Browse (or use otherwise)

Some Knowledge

(folksonomies, knowledge bases, databases, indexes, ontologies, etc.)

(metromaps )


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BlackSwan Automation = Context

• ← NOTE! the two previous slides came from my research on contextmanagement


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BlackSwan Automation : Software

• improved Bayesian classifiers that learn via feedback• I use metromaps as visual interface between human and machine

• already have/published some prototypes


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Wrapup

• decent Disaster Relief can only happen if the BigData from previousdisasters is digested

• predictable events are easy, BlackSwans are hard• with automation, proper context management and social design it canbe done


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Black Swan Disaster Scenarios

Technology

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