NATIONAL PARK SERVICE INVENTORY & MONITORING SOUTHWEST ALASKA NETWORK (SWAN) CLIMATE CHANGE...

NATIONAL PARK SERVICE INVENTORY & MONITORING

SOUTHWEST ALASKA NETWORK (SWAN)

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TRAINING 2010-2011

OVERVIEW

Climate Change Planning in

Alaska’s National Parks

Project Background

NPS and SNAP collaborate to help managers, personnel, and key stake-holders develop plausible climate change scenarios for Alaska NPS areas.

Changing climatic conditions impact environmental, social and economic conditions in National Park System areas.

Alaska park managers need to understand changes in order to more effectively manage various ecosystems and human uses.

National Park Service Areas in AlaskaArctic Network

(ARCN)

Southwest Alaska Network

(SWAN) Southeast Alaska Network

(SEAN)

Central Alaska Network (CAKN)

The Aleutians World War II Monument was not included in this assessment of the SWAN network.

SWAN Parks and Sites

Lake Clark

Aniakchak Kenai Fjords

Katmai

Workshop Participants

REPRESENTATIVES FROM:

National Park Service (NPS)

Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning (SNAP)

United States Geological Survey (USGS)

Alaska Sea Life Center (ASLC)

Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA)

U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS)

U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) – Forest Service

SNAP: Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning

What is most important to Alaskans and other Arctic partners?o What changes are most likely?o What changes will have the greatest

impact?o How can we adapt to those changes? o What are we best able to predict?

Scenarios are linked to SNAP models, including:o Climate models o Models of how people use land and

resourceso Other models linked to climate and

human behavior

www.snap.uaf.edu

The science of climate change

Unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet is warming

How this warming will affect climate systems around the globe is an enormously complex question

Uncertainty and variability are inevitable

Climate change presents significant risks to natural and cultural resources

Understanding how to address uncertainty is an important part of climate change planning

http://geology.com/news/labels/Global-Warming.html

Pre-workshop webinars

Feb 2, 2011:

Basic concepts of scenarios planning outlined by GBN

Data and resources available through SNAP and others

Importance of planning for climate changeFeb 9, 2011:

Climate drivers for SWAN parksFeb 16, 2011:

Climate effects table created for SWAN parks

SNAP Methods: Projections based on IPCC models

1. Calculated concurrence of 15 models with data for 1958-2000 for surface air temperature, air pressure at sea level, and precipitation.

2. Used root-mean-square error (RMSE) evaluation to select the 5 models that performed best for Alaska, 60-90°N, and 20-90°N latitude.

3. Used A1B, B1 and A2 emissions scenarios.

4. Downscaled coarse GCM output to 2km using PRISM data.

SNAP data: climate projections

TemperaturePrecipitation (rain and snow)Every month of every year from

1900 to 2100 (historical + projected)

5 models, 3 emissions scenariosAvailable as maps, graphs,

charts, raw dataOnline, downloadable - in

Google Earth, GIS, or printable formats

Projected Temperatures

2000s

2090s

Projected January

Temperatures 2000s & 2090s

SNAP data: climate projections

Temperature

Precipitation (rain and snow)

Every month of every year from 1900 to 2100 (historical + projected)

5 models, 3 emissions scenarios

Available as maps, graphs, charts, raw data

Online, downloadable - in Google Earth, GIS, or printable formats

2000s

2090s

SNAP data: complex linked models

Season length

Shifting plants and animals (biomes and ecosystems)

Water availability

Forest fire

Soil temperature and permafrost (example at left)

Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF

Soil Temperature at 1m depth

1980s

2040s

2080s

NPS Talking Points Papers

Available for Alaska Maritime and Transitional and Alaska Boreal and Arctic

Accessible, up-to-date information about climate change impacts to park resources

Each paper has three major sections:

1. Information on regional changes based on seven impacts

2. No Regrets Actions that can be taken now 3. Discussion of global climate change based on four

topics

Access these and other documents at http://www.snap.uaf.edu/webshared/Nancy%20Fresco/NPS/

Scenarios planners look at the general and specific changes expected in each climate driver, as well as the size and patterns of the expected change.

Climate Drivers, or “Scenario Drivers Based on Climate”

Temperature Precipitation Relative humidity Wind speed Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(PDO) Extreme weather events Sea ice Permafrost Snow Freeze-up date Sea level Water availability

Atmosphere Climate Effects Selected and ranked by participants

[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]

ATMOSPHERE

Greenhouse gasesIncreased carbon storage where forests spread; decreased where drought causes loss of forest or where fire and permafrost release methane and CO2

Air temperature Air temperature increases ~1°F per decade; greatest change in the north and in winter.

Precipitation

Average annual precipitation increases. Relative amounts of snow, ice or rain change.

Many areas experience drying conditions despite increased precipitation.More freezing rain events affect foraging success for wildlife, travel safety, etc.

Storms

Lightning and lightning-ignited fires continue to increase.

Storm and wave impacts increase in northern Alaska where land-fast sea ice forms later.

Air quality More smoke from longer and more intense fire seasons.

Contaminants Increased contaminants and shifting contaminant distribution.


CRYOSPHE

RE

Snow/ice

Later onset of freeze-up and snowfall + earlier spring snowmelt and break-up.

Arctic snow cover declines with higher air temperatures and earlier spring thaw.

Lack of snow cover leads to deeper freezing of water in the ground or rivers.

Cultural resources are exposed as snow and ice patches melt and recede.

Glaciers

Most glaciers diminish as warming continues, though a few are still advancing.

Glacial outwash affects aquatic productivity and forms deposits in shallow water.

Glacial lakes fail more frequently, creating risk of flash floods and debris flows.

Surging glaciers could block rivers and fjords, resulting in severe flooding.

Sea ice

Less sea ice complicates travel, impacts ecosystems, and adds energy to storm surges.Seasonal reductions in sea ice increase the risk of spills contaminating coastal resources.

Ice roads Reduced winter transportation affects opportunities for travel and subsistence.

Permafrost

Mercury & other pollutants are released into aquatic environments as permafrost thaws.

Cryosphere Climate Effects Selected and ranked by participants


HYDROSPHERE

Sea level

Global average sea level is predicted to rise 1-6 feet by the end of the 21st Century.

Increased storm surges and permafrost erosion compound effects of change in sea level.

Some coastal villages rapidly lose ground from storms, erosion and subsidence.

Marine

Increasing sea surface temperature affects fish, seabird, and wildlife populations.

Falling global phytoplankton could reduce ocean productivity and CO2 sequestration.

Freshwater influx from thawing glaciers dilutes marine waters, stressing animals.

Toxic marine algae & shellfish poisoning attributed to changes in water conditions.

Ocean acidification affects food sources of fish, marine mammals & birds in the Arctic.

Estuarine

Coastal erosion and sea level rise increase the frequency of saltwater flooding.

Some shallow water areas convert to terrestrial ecosystems with post-glacial rebound.

Freshwater

Stream flows from melting glaciers increase and then decrease over time.

Ponds shrink as ground ice thaws or thermokarst drainage occurs in permafrost areas.

Groundwater Groundwater supplies dependent on seasonal glacial recharge become less predictable.

Hydrosphere Climate Effects Selected and ranked by participants

Climate Effects, as selected and ranked by participants

LITHOSPHERE


LITHOSPHE

RE

Ground level Ground level rises in recently de-glaciated areas because of isostatic rebound.

Ground stability

More roads and infrastructure fail or require repairs due to permafrost thaw.

Landslides and mud flows increase on steep slopes. Rapid glacial retreat and permafrost thaw leave steep and unstable slopes in valleys and fjords.

Earthquake activity increases in recently deglaciated areas due to isostatic rebound.

Large and small tsunamis could result from collapse of unstable slopes in fjords.

Coastal erosion claims both natural and cultural resources and constructed assets.

Burials and other remains are exposed as cultural sites thaw and erode.

Soil Soil moisture declines due to rising soil temperature, thawing permafrost, and drainage.


BIOSPHERE

Vegetation

Average number of frost-free days for the Arctic could increase between 20 and 40 days by 2100.

Increased agricultural production in Alaska because of longer growing season.

Potential large-scale shift of tundra to shrubs, to conifers, to deciduous forests or grass.

Atypical outbreaks of pests and diseases affect native species and increase fire hazards.

Invasive exotic plant species and native species from other areas expand their ranges.

Forests

Black spruce may expand with warming – or contract as permafrost soils thaw and fires increase.

Mature forests and “old growth” decline because of drought, insects, disease, and fire.

Mature yellow cedars decline across southeast Alaska, possibly due to lack of insulating snow.

Fire

Models show a warmer climate leads to larger, more frequent and intense fires.

Wildland fire hazards increase, affecting communities and isolated property owners.

Fire-related landcover and soil changes result in vegetation shifts, permafrost thaw, etc.

Biosphere Climate Effects – 1 of 4Selected and ranked by participants


BIOSPHERE

Wildlife

Changes to terrestrial and aquatic species occur as ranges shift, contract, expand.

Animals and plants will expand into landscapes vacated by glacial ice.

Migratory routes and destinations will change (e.g., wetlands, open tundra, snow patches).

Birds

Arctic and alpine birds’ breeding habitats reduced as trees and shrubs encroach on tundra.

Waterfowl shifts occur as coastal ponds become more salty.

Productivity of nesting shorebirds may increase if schedules change to coincide w/ insects.

Predation on ground nesting birds could increase if prey (lemming) abundance declines.

Coastal seabirds (e.g. Ivory Gull and Aleutian Tern) are vulnerable to climate change.

Population cycles of birds and their prey could be out of sync due to higher temperatures.

Marine Mammals

Arctic marine mammals (e.g. seals, walrus, whales) are affected by sea ice decline.

Less sound absorption (ocean acidification) affects marine mammals that rely on echolocation.



BIOSPHERE

Caribou/ Reindeer

Caribou and reindeer health are affected by changes in weather, forage, and insects and pests.

Earlier green-up could improve caribou calf survival because of more available forage.

Caribou may suffer heavy losses if rain events prevent successful feeding during cold weather.

MooseShifts in forests could mean less habitat for caribou, but more habitat for moose.

Climate change could hinder moose calf birth success and moose calf survival.

Small Mammals

Fire may create new burrowing habitat and forage growth to help vole populations.

Less snow cover = increased predation & cold stress for subnivian species.

Fisheries

Commercial fisheries affected by changes to ocean communities in the Bering Sea.

Some marine plant and animal populations may decline with ocean acidification.

New stream habitats become available for fish and wildlife as glaciers decline.

Some salmon waters may become unsuitable for migration, spawning and incubation.

Fish habitats in permafrost areas are degraded by slumps and sediment input into rivers.

Inverte-brates

Ice worm populations decline locally as glacier habitats melt.Exotic pests expand from warmer areas, endemic pests expand as host species are stressed.



BIOSPHERE

Subsistence

Altered animal migration patterns make subsistence hunting more challenging.

Sea ice changes make hunting for marine mammals less predictable & more dangerous.

Managing new species and intensified management of native species may be needed.

Tourism Longer summer seasons and more cruise ships in the Bering Strait could increase tourism.

Hazards Safety hazards related to climate change, e.g. thin ice, flooding, changing fire regimes, etc.

TEK Uses of traditional ecological knowledge become less predictive and less reliable.

Development

More natural resource development in Alaska with increasing global demand.

More developmental pressures, e.g. opening of Northwest Passage, community resettlement, etc.


Aug 2010 Training Workshop: Scenarios Planning Process

Led by Global Business Network (GBN)

Participants learned how to develop scenarios based on a nested framework of critical uncertainties

Participants fleshed out beginnings of climate change scenarios for two pilot park networks

Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group ©2010 Monitor Company Group

+10%-10%

Forecast Planning One Future

Uncertainties

What we know today

Scenario PlanningMultiple Futures

What we know today

Forecasts vs. Scenarios

Global Business Network (GBN) ©2010 Monitor Company Group

Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process

What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them?

What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address?

What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?

How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories?

As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions?

This diagram describes the 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process


Scenario Creation Process

Step One: Orient

Strategic issue or decision:

How will climate change effects impact the landscapes within NPS management units over the next 50 to 100 years?

How can NPS managers best preserve the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of climate change?

To address this challenge, we need to explore a broader question:

Kenai Fjords National Park

Photo credit: Kenai Fjords | http://www.ent.iastate.edu/sip/2005/companiontours

What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?

Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty

Copyright © 2010 Monitor Company Group, L.P. — ConfidentialERT-HLY 2010 1

CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESBIOREGION: ______________

Over the next 50 – 100 years, what will happen to . . . ?

CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESBIOREGION: ________________

Over the next 50─100 years, what will happen to…?



Step Two: Explore

Climate Scenarios

Combining two selected drivers creates four possible futures

BIOREGION: ______________


Driver 1

Driv

er 2

“Nested Scenarios”

Lack of senior commitment

Varied approach & alignment

Short-term concerns

Senior commitmentInternational

alignmentLong-term

perspectives

Widespread indifference

Competing concerns

Degre

e o

f S

oci

eta

l C

once

rn

Big problems, Big solutions…

Riots and Revolution…

Is Anyone Out There?... Wheel-Spinning…

1 2

3 4

5 6

7 8

9 10

11 12

13 14

15 16

Broad UnderstandingHeightened Urgency

Nesting each story in a social framework creates 16 possibilities

Nature of Leadership


Step 3: Synthesize

Describe This World in 2030

Major Impacts on the Bioregion

Issues Facing Management

Nested Scenario Details

The 16 possible futures created in the preceding steps must be narrowed down to 3-4 scenarios that are relevant, divergent, challenging, and pertinent. Each has its own narrative (story).

BioregionClimate

Socio-Political

BIOREGION: ________________

Robust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or okay) in any of the four scenarios

- OR -

Bet the Farm: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality

- OR -

Hedge Your Bets: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size

- OR -

Core/Satellite: Place one major bet, with small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, real options


Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Core

Satellite

Bet theFarm

RobustSatellite


Step Four: Act

Categorizing Options to Help Set Strategy

SWAN Workshop Results

Example: Riverine

Step 1: Orient

Nuka River, Kenai Fjords National Park | Photo credit: Sandra Healy

Strategic issue or decision:

To address this challenge, we need to explore a broader question:

Step 2: Explore

Climate drivers selected by workshop participants for Riverine:

• Thaw Days (more/less)

• Precipitation (low/high variation)

Precipitation

Tha

w

D

ays

Climate Scenarios (Riverine)

Precipitation

T

haw

Day

s

More with warming PDO phase

Less with cold PDO phase

High Variation Less Variation

“Juneau-Helly/Hansen”

2

“Freeze Dried”

3

“Smokey”

1

“Tiny Ice Age”

4

Each quadrant yields a set of future conditions which are:

• plausible

• challenging

• relevant

• divergent

1) “Smokey”2) “Juneau/Helly Hansen”

Drought stressed vegetation Increased disease/pests Maximum shrub expansion Long-term reduction stream

flow Initially higher stream flows

from glacial melt Reduction/loss of glaciers Increased fire on landscape 40% reduction in salmon fry Lowering of groundwater

tables Decrease in stream flow Decrease in subsistence

Increase in rain-on-snow events

Thicker vegetation Increased erosion Increased evaporation (soil

drying) More berries Increase in park

infrastructure impacts Decrease in backcountry

visitation (more rain, fewer flying days)

Increased difficulty in controlling contamination (runoff)

Increase in avalanches

Step 3: Climate scenarios 1&2 (Riverine)

3) “Freeze Dried” 4) “Tiny Ice Age”

Permafrost persists Decrease in productivity

(plant, berries)…impact on wildlife

Overland access continues Competition of water

resources (mining, communities)

Facilities/infrastructure stable Slow retreat of tundra ponds Extend range of Dahl Sheep Lichens stable, supporting

caribou High wind potential Brown bear decrease

Increase damage risk in cultural resources/infrastructure

Increase bear activity for Brooks Camp (KATM)

Decrease in ungulates Decrease in bark beetle and fire KATM Brooks Camp barge has

adequate Naknek Lake water depth to access

Stable glaciers High summer stream flows Increase in winter access.

Step 3: Climate scenarios 3&4 (Riverine)

Step 4: Choosing Response Strategies

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Core

RobustSatellite

Satellite

Bet theFarm

Robust responses are common no-regrets actions, but they are not the only possibility.

In some cases, it may make sense to hedge bets to avoid an occurrence that appears in only one or two scenarios, or to set up core and satellite responses to deal with variability among scenarios.Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group ©2010

Monitor Company Group

Step 4: Common No Regrets Actions

Coordinate communication with other agencies

Tune planning process to account for multiple possibilities

Create seamless data sets Get missing players to the climate change

scenario table at subsequent meetings Provide science outreach and education to

multiple audiences

Next Steps

• Teleconferences and webinars to confirm results and fill in gaps

• Discussion of how to turn plans into concrete actions

• Development of outreach tools and information, including final report

• Dissemination of scenarios and explanations of the process and results to a broad audience

• Feedback from a wider audience

• Linkages with planning for other park networks

The scenario planning process doesn’t end with “SYNTHESIZE”

Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group ©2010 Monitor Company Group

NATIONAL PARK SERVICE INVENTORY & MONITORING SOUTHWEST ALASKA NETWORK (SWAN) CLIMATE CHANGE...

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