Black Sea Flood

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TIMING OF THE LAST MEDITERRAI\EAN SEA_,BLACK SEA CO¡{I\ECTION FROM ISOSTATICMODELS-ANDREGIONAL

SEA-LEVEL ÐATA

KurtLambeck,r)orit Sivan,2ndAnthonyPurcell lI

ReseurchSchool o/'Eurrh Scienc'es, trtr¿tlitttt N¿ttion¿tl lnivcr.titt,.Clunhcrnt. L'T ()200

Australict2

De¡tartmentof Muritinre Cit,ilixttiott.s und he Ree'uttttlinslitttle./itt' t4ut'itinteSlttdie.s

(RIMS), Univer.sit.t, l'lluilh. Huilh 31905 srut'l

Abstract: watcr lcvels n thc McditerraneanndulackScas ince hc Lastci lacialMaxintt lnttavc ar icd ubstant ial lycrosshc cgion rccausc.l ' t l rcnl ìucnccof thenrelting f the astgreatcc sheetsn rcdistributingccandwater vcrthcEarth'sut ' face.his ¡ lat ialar iabi l i tyssigrr i f ìcantbrcl isctrssionsf hctinringof water xchangeetweenheAegcan nclBlackSea.vhichcacher{c 'u . -10 l re la t iveopresentsea levc la t2kyca l t lP . n thcat rscnccofd i rcc tobservationalvidence,ea-levelhange t sil l locationss prcclicteclereusing sostaticmodels hathavcbeen aliblated gairrst bscrvationalatafrontothcrMcditcnaneanocalitics.f oueassurncsdc¡rth f - 32m for heBosphorus ill, the BlackSea s predictcclo havebcc¡l eachedry risingMediten'aneanaterbetween bout10.3 nd9.5

ky calBP.Altcr.natively,ftheBosphorusedrock orge t - 100urdcpthsacloptcds hcsill, henhcfìrstMcditcrraltcannfluxover heshallowc-r ardancllcsil l at - -80 nr spredictedo havcoccurreclctweeu5 ancl -'ì.7 y calllP.

sca-lcvel rediction, lacio-hydloisostasy,ill lrcight,UlackSea,MarrnaraSea

Kevwords:

1 . INTRODUCTION

Thecotrnectiou etweenheBlack Seaand heMecliten'anearìeaviathe Seaof Mannara enrains controversialssue.Was tlrerea catastro¡lhicfloodingof the Black Sea when a rising Meditclrancarì ca breacheclheBosphorusill as Ryan et al. (1997,2003),Ryanand Pitnran 1998),Major

797V. Tanko-Homltachet al. (eds.). Tlte Bluck Seu 'ltnl Qttestio¡t,797-tl0tl



798

etal. (2002),andRyan thisvolume)haveproposed,r was heconnection neof gradualwaterexchange sdescribedy Aksuetal. (2002),HiscottandAksu(2002),andHiscott et al. (thisvolume)?And whendid thiseventoccur?Someresearchers lace the first post-LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) incursionof

Mediterranean ater nto theBlackSeaasearlyas 12,800BP (oneof thetwoscenariosresentedy Majoreta\.2002),whileothers ate t later. t tookplaceabout 1,000-10,500 P accordingo Aksuet at. (2002)andHiscott ndAksu(2002),but t was aterstill at 9100BP accordingo Kaminskiet al. (2002).dateof 8400BP hasbeenproposedn Ryanet at. (2003)and in the secondscenario f Majoretal. (2002), nd t wasplaced s ecently s7100Bp in Ryanet al. (1997).

If sea-levelhanges knownor canbepredicted, nd hedepths f thetopographic arriers eparatingheAegeanandBlackSeas realsoknown, henit becomespossible o predict the timing of the fìrst contactsbetween heAegean,Marmara, ndBlackSeas. heprincipal ources f uncertainty ouldbe ( I ) the accuracy f the local sea-level urve,and(2) whether herehasbeensignificantmodification fthe sillsby erosion, edimentation,r local ectonics.

This paperenrploys predictive pproacho estimatinghe inringofinter-basinonnection

ased pon sostaticmodels f sea-levelchangehathavebeen alibrated gainstegionalMediterraneanea-level ata.Previous tudieshaveused heBarbados ea-level urveof Fairbanks19s9)-e.g.,Aksu el ø/.(2002)-or earliermodelsby Milliman and Emery (1968)-e.g.,Ryan et al.(1997)-orChappell ndShackleton1986)-e.g., ksuet al. (2002)-toesrimarethe timing of thepost-LGM floodingof the Black Seaby the Mediterîaneanwithout first testingwhether hese ocal sea-levelunctionsare appropriateorthe BlackSeasill location. n fact,asdernonstratedy Lambeck 1995,1996),sea evels rom theAegean o theBlackSeavary substantiallyecause f thecombined ffects f glacio-andhydroisostasy,ven n theabsence f tectonics.Furthermore,he resultscan be expected o differ from observedvaluesatBarbados r similar sitesbecauseMediterraneannd Black Sea evelswerestrongly nfluenced y the nearness f theformerEuropeancesheetandby thecoastline eometry f theocean asinsnto which heglacialmeltwater rained(Larnbeck ndPurcell2005).

There appear o be no sea-levelobservationsrom areasnear theBosphorus ndDardanelles ills thatcontrolled heexchange f waterbetweenthe Aegeanand heBlack Sea,so nsteadwe usea regionalmodel or theMedi-terraneanhat hasbeen compareclo sea-level lata i'oln tectonically tableregions. hecalibrated odel s thenused o predict ea-levelchanget thesillsbased n theassuntptionshat(l ) therewasno tectonic ontributiono thesea-levelsignalor that hishasbeencorrectedn someway, and(2) lateralvariatiorr

in theeffectiveparametershatdefìne heEarth's esponseochanging aterandice oadson timescales f 104 ears s unimportant.



7()9

The irstassumptionasbecn ested gainst iteswhcre he rosit ionFthe ast nterglacialhorelines known. heseconclssurnptionrr¡stenrain narticleof faithunti l ful l three-dimensionalantle esponserodelshavebeendeveloped nd tested gainst bservatiorralata.Unti l this is aclrievect.hefollowingpredictionslt¡st e based n a range f eff 'ectivearthnrodel ara-lnetershatyieldpredictionsonsistentith f ielddata hat rave een btaineclacrosshe region. he dataused ncludenfornrationrom Israel Sivanet c/.2001,2004), rom ocationsn Greece here ertical ectonic isplacementsrebelieved o be small(van Andel andShackleton 982:Lanrbeck1996), ronrItaly (Lambeck ra\.2004),and rom he FrenchMediterraneanLarnbeck ndBard2000).These ata pan hecrit ical eriod uringwhich hesil lsguarding

theBlackSeawere ikely o have een reachedy a post-LGMMecliterraneatransgressiorr.

2. PREDICTION OF MEDITERRANEAN SEALEVEL

Thenrodel rcdicts ea-levellrangelueo tlrcgrowtlr rrcl Jccayf tlreicesheets f the astglacial ycle, .e., rolrr he ast lrterglacialo thepresent.It incorporatesheplanet's ef'ormationswellas hevariationsn gravitationalfìeldcar¡sed y slr ift ing ce and water oadsancl heirreclistributionver heEartlt 's urface. eltwatereturnso theoceans,ndas t does. lreconfigura-tionof theoceatì asins nd heshape f theirnrarginseco¡reirnedepenclent.but hroughoutheprocess,heocean urfaceenrainsquipotential.ce oatls re

constrainedyexamininghe esponsef thecrust mainly efìectedy sea-levelchange)n the ormerlyglaciated reas, hile he inrehistoryof the otal cevolulne s inferred rontsea-level ata ar fì'om heglaciateclegions. he mostrecent iscussioltf the heory sed eres n LanrbeckndJohnston1998) ndLanrbeck t ctl. 2003).The theory s consistent ith that ofì f 'orexarrrple,Mitrovica ndMilne 2003).Modelparametersor heMecliterraneanppearrrLalnbeck ndPurcell nd),and he ce-volumequivalerrtea evelused s that

of Lanrbeck ndChappell2001.Figure il lusttateshepredictedea evel relativeo toc{zry'salues)ntheMediterratleanndBlackSea orca. 12,000 P . t clearly howshespatialvar iabi l i tyn sca- lcvclcs¡ronschatcr¡rr c cx¡rcclcd:rcl ' r lsshc rcgiorr . hcdol tr inantigh requcncypat ia lsignalsclueo hcchangcsnsca-f louroat l ingby nrel twatcraddcdi l tceheo¡tset f 'post-L( iM lcglaciat ion.'h is ssccn rr i -nrari ly sa subsidenceithin hebasins,uch s heUlackSea nd heWestern

Mediterranean,nda relative pliftof adjacentalrcl oclies. u¡lerirnposednthis s a lortgerwavelengthariatio¡r, ainlywith a norlh-southrencl.hat s



800

theplanet's ea-levelesponseo changesn ice oadovernorthernEurope ndNorth America,detailsof which may be found in Lambeckand purcell (nd).Thus, the Black Seawill havea differentsea-level esponsehan, say,the

Levantinecoast,which liesfarther rom theformer ce loads.

Figure /. Predictedea evelacross he Mediterraneant 12,000 alBP.Prcdictions ssumetectonic tability f thecrustbut nclude lacio-hydro-isostaticffects ased n realisticceandearthmodels hathavebeencalibrated gainstobservationalata rom across he region fromLambeck ndPurcell 005).

Thisspatial ariability s further llustratedn Figure2 as a timeseries

at the four Meditemaneanitesdiscussed elow. n this case,predictionsorVillefranche on the FrenchMediterraneanoast)and Tirins (Peloponnese,Greece) reverysimilar,but heydiffer from he Levantine oast esultby -10m at 10,000 earsBP.As a consequence,neshouldnot usea sea-level urvefronr any other location n the Mediterranean s a proxy for change n theBosphorus ithout irstcorrectingordifferentialsostaticffects. ikewise, necannot se heBarbadosea-levelunctionunlesst canbeder¡lonstratedhat he

isostatic ffects re ortuitouslyhesanreor these ites s heyare or theBlackSea i l ls.In thispaper,wecalibratehe sostaticeboundmodelat ocationsn the

Mediterraneanhere ertical ectonicdisplacementsresmallor known(fromthc MIS 5.5shorcli l lc lcvatiort), c cstinlatc l ' l 'cctivcarth trd ccshect ara-lnetershatdescribeheobservedesponse,nd henwe interpolateo looationsof particularnterest,n thiscaseheconnection etweenheMediterraneannd

theBlackSea.Figure showsoneresultof suchan nterpolationor theMedi-terranean ndBlackSeabasins sa whole.



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8 0 r

In the textsection, redictionsrebasecln theLarntrcckllclPurcell(2005)nrodel, ndaccuracy stirnateslepend porÌuncertaintiesn both heearth-and ice-nrodel aralneters,s well as the accuracy f the global cevolullresor thepost-LGM eriod, sdiscussedherein. henrodel redictions

have been successfully ested against observations ì'onr outsi{e theMediterrarrean,nclucl-ingheBarbadosata see anrbeck ¡/ 1.2002\.

t 5 l 0 5 (

time x1000) altsP

Figr<' 2. Predictccl ca evelsat four Mediten'ancanocationsbascdorr hc modcl in Fipurc l.

CALIBRATIOI{ OFTHB SEA-LEVELMODEL

Figure3 i l lustratesredicted ea evels t sevcralocalit ics ¡clcorlr-paresheltt o observedaluesor thesame ocations.--igureA describesheCarnrel oast f Israel. ere, nderwaterncl oastal rchaeologicalcscarchlasprovidedconstraintsn the localsea-level urve ioln -9500 caltlP to the

present.heoffshorevidencencludesubrncrgcdrchistoriccttlcnte¡lts,atcrwells,andshipwrecks hose ges anbeestablishedy rrctclatinge.g.,Gali l iandWeinstein-Evron985; al i l ietal . 1988; al i l iandNir 1993).Thenshorecvidcllcc ltclt¡clcsc¡t 't l l¿ttttsf 'anchuragcs,l i¡rways,riscirras,¡uarricdorrds,an< l a te rwe l l s e .g . ,Raban 981, 983 ;Raban nc lGa l i l i t ) t l 5 ;Ga l i l iandSharvi t 999; ivan ndGal i l i1999),utwehave scclr r ly l roscncl icatorslratcan be relatedo sea eveland whoseagedetenlinationsrebelieveclo be

reliable.Generally,hepredictionsreconsistent ith theotrservationalata.althoughhe atter re i lnited o ti¡rres fter 9 kv Bp.

3.



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Figure 3. Comparison f predictedand observed elativesea evels at four Mediterraneanlocalities. pperand ower inrits or predictedaluesthegreyzone) rebased n unceftaintiesin themodelparameters;or details, eeLambeck ndPurcell 2005).Observationalccuraciesor upper nd ower imitsareshownwhere ppropriate.atasources rediscussedn the ext.

Figure38 compares everalsites n the Greek Peloponnese,here

tectonic tabilityssuggestedy theoccurrençef theLast nterglacialeaevelsat a few nteters bove resent ea evel Kelletatet al. 1976;vanAndel l9S7).Data frorn severalsites. ave been combinedhere: from the headsof theArgolikós,Messiniakós,ttdLakonikós ull 's,ì 'orrr av¿¡ri¡rouìay(Kraftelø/.1975,1977,1980),nda LGM sea-levelstirnateiorn lreArgolikósvanAndelandLianos1984). ome patial ariabil i ty etweenhese ites spredicted,utthis s ess han heobservationalccuracy. he esults avebeen ombined ere

into a singlesea-levelurve.Predicted alues re or themeanof thesites, ndthe associated ccuracyncludes he contribution rom the expected patial

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variabil i ty,Muchof theevidencesagain f a l inl i t irrg ature; pperimitsareprovided y terrestrialrtaterialnd ower i¡ l l i tsareprovidecly nrarine lateri-al.Agreelrlentf t l tepredictedeaevelswith hisevidenccsagain atisfactory,altlrough hedatapointsbefore 7 ky Bp are ew.

A nrore etailed oloceneecord ithdata xtenclingrack 0,000earsis availablet'onrheVersil iaPlairr f northern uscarryArrtorriol it ut.2000).The conti lrentale<li l lrentsenerallyie above,and the marinenraterialsiebelow,predicted alues Figure C).Data ronrother tal ian ocalit ieshatareeither ectonically table, r where ectonic orrections¿rnre nade, realsoconsistent ith themodelback o about 1,000Bp (e.g., r.onr apepalinura,Calabria,nd heNorthAdriatic; anrbecktst.2004). he ourth ocalityson

the FrenchMediterratleanoastwhere ea-levelndicat<lrsf variablc ualityextendback to the LGM (Larnbeck nd Bard2000).F'orconvenience,ndbecausehe observationalccuraciesregenerallyarger han he predicteclspatial ariabil i ty or theobservationites.he ielddatahaveherebeenpro-jected ntoa single ea-levelcurve,hich scompared ith hepredicteclaluesin Figure 3D. Flerealso, the agreenrents satisfactory, nd frorn this briefcomparison, s well as front cornparisonsith other ocalit ies eyond lre

MediterralteanLaltrbeck

ru|.2002),we concluclehat lremodel redictionsprovidca satisfactoryntcrpolationlcvicc'orcalculati l tgca-levcl hangenunsurveyedreas,n thiscase or theAegean-Marnrara-Blackea onnection.

4. PREDICTBD SEA LEVEL AT THEMARMARA AND BT,ACKSEA SILLS

Two sill locationsare considered, ne at the southemend of theBosphorusFigure4A) and theotherwithin the DardanellesrearCapeNaraBururt Figure B). In addition, ea-levelrofi les avebeenpredicted lo¡gasectiottrom tlteAegeano theBlackSea hat uns hrough heDardanelles.heSeaof Manttara, rrd heBosphorusFigure C).One nlnecliate bservationsthat hepredictedea evels or he wosil l ocationsresubstantial lyif erent:

-5 m at 10,000 P and>9 nt after14,000 P.Also¡rotables hat heBlackSeapredictionieswell below hat or the ocalit iesllustratecln Figure ancl hatobservatio¡rsrotunoneof these iteswould onrra goocl roxy ìlrsea evel nthe upperBosplrorus.

Wc hcrclì)rc sc hc lroclcl¡ lrcclictiorrs,alibratcclagairrstbscrvcclt l¿rLfront hcot l tcr ocal i t ics,o cst inratehc irnes t whicl l hcsi l lswoulclikc lyItave een reached.orexantple,f thepresent osphorusil l depth f - -32

rnMajor

etal.2002)sused,hen heMeditenarleanater n heManlrara asinwould ltave reachedhis elevation etweelt bout 10.300 ncl9500calBP.



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-120 t-400

C300 200 100 0

Distance from the Black Sea sill (km)

Figure 4. Predicted ea evelsat two sill locations etweenhc AegeanandBlackSeas; resentsil ldepths ndpredictedimes ftransgressionre ndicated. . ThcBlackSca illat hcsot¡thernendof theBosphorus.ith wopossibleil l depthsitspresent epth t -32ntandbcdrock epthat - -100 m). B. The Dardanellesill nearCapeNaraBurunat a depthof - -80 m. C. Variation

in predictedea evel or selectedntervals longan Aegean o BlackSea ransect. ariationwithin heDardanelless generally mall, nd hepreciseocation f thissil l is not mportant.

thc s¡rreadeflectinghc t¡nce¡taintyn thc nroclcl rcdictions. hisconlpareswitlr the imitsof 9400calBPand8000calBPproposed y Major etal. (2002)and Ryan et al. (2003), espectively. lternatively, f the - -100 m bedrockdepth s adopted s the top of the ancientbarrier, hen the first post-LGMMediterraneannflow ispredictedo haveoccurred etween 5,700and14,600calBP,with theproviso hat herewasno higherbarriern theDardanellest hattime. If the Dardanellessill was at -80+5 m (Major et al. 2002), hen this

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805

elevatiott ould havebeenbreachedetween15,000 ncl13,700 alBp, heunbeftaintyeflectingboth the rnodel's imitationsand the unceftaintyn thereported il l depth.Thiscompares ith thedatingof 15,000 o 12,g00 alBpproposed y Major et al. (2002).Note hatat theseearly

irnes. irculation e-tween henorthernAegealtand herestof theMediterranean as nuchnrorerestrictedhan t is today Lanrbeck 996).

4. CONCLUSION

ln the absencef directobservationalvidenceur relative ea-levelchange ithin heAegean-Blackea orriclor,lacio-hydro-isostaticroclelsre

usedhereas interpolationeviceso predict hanges t sil l locationshatareunderstoodo have conttolled he exchange f water between he Aegean.Manttara, ndBlackSeas. heabsolute ccuracy f the¡rroclelreclictions-reston theability to separateheparametershatdescribehe Earìh's esponseoloadingand hose hatdefine hesurfacece oads.When hernodels used orinterpolationurposes nly, ful l dccoupling l 'thc paranrctcrss ¡ot crit ical,providedhat he noclel aralletersre alibratedgainstegionalea-lcvelata.For hecxalttples¡sed erc, greerrrentssatisf¿rctoryndwithin hc¿rccur.acicof both heobservationalvidencenclhenroclel rcclicticlns.

Based ll theseesults,nd n theabsencef local ectonic 'ìovenrents,we esti l l tatehat,assuminghat heBosphorusil l elevation as emainecl¡-changed t- -32 m, tlteMeditenaneaneachedhisheight or he ,rrstinre incetheLGM at between 0,300 nd9500 alBP, nd heDarclanellesil l ,at - -82

rn,was eachedetween 5,000 nd13,700 alBp.Beinghigherhan he ow-levelbedrock lackSea il l , hisalsoestablisheshealternativeiming or theBlackSea loodingby theMediterranean.

Accuracy f theobservationalevidencesgenerally othigh,however,and rnprovedest¡ltsredesirableronr lre cgion f thcscinrcs lf ' tr.arrsgrcssiare o be refined.Obtainingnrproved stimates il l rec¡uirecldit iolraligh-accllracynfornratiol ll l ocal ea-levelhangen the egion.l l t l l is e_qarcl,ata

fronl the Black Seacoast tselfntaybe useful,particr.rlarlywayfrom tecton-icallyactive ones, ecausef thevariation redicteclo occurhcre Figure ).

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