Biopharma report

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A REPORT ON DEVELOPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE INDIAN BIO/PHARMA INDUSTRY IN 2020 (DELPHI STUDY APPROACH)

By: ARUN GUPTA 09BS0000425

SMI BRAIN NET.1|Page Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in 2020

A REPORT ON DEVELOPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE INDIAN BIO/PHARMA INDUSTRY IN 2020 (DELPHI STUDY APPROACH) BY Arun Gupta 09BS0000425 SMI BRAIN NET

A REPORT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULLFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT OF MBA PROGRAM OF THE ICFAI UNIVERSITY, DEHRADUNSUBMITTED TO:-

FACULTY GUIDE: Prof. A. Lakshminarasimha Associate Dean IBS-Bangalore

COMPANY GUIDE Prof. Dr. Roger Moser Director SMI India

DATE OF SUBMISSION: 2|Page

14/5/10

Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in 2020

DECLARATION

I declare that the study entitled Developing Future Scenario for the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in 2020 conducted at SMI BRAINNET, Bangalore is a record of independent work carried out by me during the academic year 2010. I have completed my study under the guidance of my faculty Guide Prof. Lakshminarasimha .A. of IBSBangalore and company guide Prof. Dr. Roger Moser of SMI BrainNet. I also declare that this study is the result of my effort and has not been submitted to any other University or Institution for the award of any degree or personal favor whatsoever. All the details and analysis provided in the report hold true to the best of my knowledge.

Date: 14 May 2010 Place: Bangalore

Arun Gupta IBS Bangalore

3|Page Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in 2020

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express our heartfelt gratitude and thankfulness towards our Industry Analytics professors, Dr. Prof. Roger Moser for giving us an opportunity to work on this project, which has helped us gain an in depth understanding of the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry. Also the expert comments given timely helped a lot. The timely advice given by Prof. A. Lakshminarasimha has gone a long way in ensuring that we do not lose focus while working on the project. The constant guidance and meaningful suggestions provided by them also helped in making this project a relevant and a rich source of learning for the students of Industry Analytics. With his kind reference we have visited a government manufacturing plant KAPL (Karnataka Antibiotics and Pharmaceuticals Limited) and get a knowledgeable exposure about all the departments of a company. We come to know how the functioning is done in an organization. We hope that this project would enable the readers understand present and the future scenarios of Indian Pharmaceutical Industry.

Regards, Arun Gupta.

4|Page Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in 2020

Table of ContentsDECLARATION ................................................................................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ..................................................................................................... 4 ABSTRACT: ......................................................................................................................... 7 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 8 Company Profile: ............................................................................................................. 8 SMI:............................................................................................................................... 8 SMI India ....................................................................................................................... 8 Our academic partner IIM-B ....................................................................................... 9 Our corporate partner(s) ................................................................................................. 9 Research ........................................................................................................................ 9 BrainNet ..................................................................................................................... 10 DEVELOPING A FUTURE SCENARIO ............................................................................ 11 Fundamental Steps of Scenario Planning ..................................................................... 12 Objective of the project.................................................................................................. 14 Limitations of the project .............................................................................................. 14 METHODOLOGY: ............................................................................................................. 14 Overview of Delphi Technique: ..................................................................................... 15 RealTime-Delphi Procedure for Respondents ........................................................... 15 Experts focused approach: ............................................................................................ 18 INTRODUCTION: INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY....................................... 19 INDUSTRY SEGMENTATION .......................................................................................... 22 DOMESTIC GROWTH DRIVERS: .................................................................................... 25 CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS....................................................................................... 27 New product development ............................................................................................. 27 Therapeutic coverage ..................................................................................................... 28 Exports ........................................................................................................................... 29 Low cost production through scale ............................................................................... 29 FACTORS WHICH MAKE INDIA MOST FAVORITE OUTSOURCING HUB: .............. 30 PEST Analysis of Pharmaceutical Industry: ......................................................................... 33 Political Factors.............................................................................................................. 33 Economic Factors ........................................................................................................... 34 Social Factors ................................................................................................................. 35 Technological Factors .................................................................................................... 36

5|Page Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in 2020

SWOT ANALYSIS OF INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY ................................ 38 Strengths ........................................................................................................................ 38 Weakness ........................................................................................................................ 39 Opportunities ................................................................................................................. 39 Threats ........................................................................................................................... 40 Projections: .......................................................................................................................... 41 Outcome Projections:..................................................................................................... 41 Enabler Projections: ...................................................................................................... 42 Impact on Industry: ....................................................................................................... 44 EXPLANATION OF THE OUTCOME PROJECTIONS AND 6 ENABLERS PROJECTIONS with EXPERT COMMENTS ..................................................................... 49 Outcome projections ...................................................................................................... 49 Enabler projections: ...................................................................................................... 49 Short Stories Which Will Support the Above Projections: .................................................... 60 Lifestyle Diseases: DIABETES in India ........................................................................ 60 BRANDED PILL BITTER DOSE ................................................................................ 61 Chronic diseases cost India more than $ 1 billions. ...................................................... 62 Government support ...................................................................................................... 62 REGRESSION ANALYSIS ................................................................................................ 63 Impact on Industry:- ...................................................................................................... 63 APPENDIX ......................................................................................................................... 69 Experts Rating regarding Impact on Industry ............................................................. 69 Calculations for Conclusion: ......................................................................................... 70 References: .......................................................................................................................... 71

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ABSTRACT:

The proposed project is about future scenario development of Indian Pharmaceutical industry by 2020. For projecting the most probable/likable scenarios, existing Political, Economical, Social as well as Technological factors are considered and a