Martin Junginger, Utrecht University

International workshop:

Towards sustainable international biomass

trade strategies

24.10.2014, Brussels, Belgium

Biomass trade for energy:

history & future expectations

History of bioenergy trade

• In the last century, the vast majority of bioenergy use was a local or regional form of energy

• Main reasons were (sufficient) local demand, but most importantly difficulties of transporting raw biomass over longer distances (due to high moisture content, difficulties with storage, no existing supply chains, etc. etc.)

• But…

(Source: J. Swaan, WPAC)

Global wood pellet trade 2010-2013

(Source: Lamers et al., Chapter 3 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013;

John Bingham, Hawkins Wright, October 2014, USIPA conference)

Total traded volume over long-distance:

>6 million tonnes

Global bioethanol trade 2008-2011

(Source: Lamers et al., Chapter 2 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013)

(Source: Lamers et al., Chapter 2 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013)

Global biodiesel trade 2008-2011

Trends and drivers

• International bioenergy trade of biodiesel, bioethanol and wood pellets have all increased by a factor of 10 between 2000-2010

• Volumes around several million tonnes

• Main drivers are: availability of abundant, cheap biomass, pretreatmenttechnologies, RE / climate targets of industrialized countries (Europe, US, Korea), security of supply and others

• But: is this enough?

Current bioenergy feedstock use+ other refs (2008)

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

2050 Bioenergy Potentials &

Deployment Levels

2008 Global Energy Total

Chapter 2 Possible

DeploymentLevels

2011 IPCC

Review*

Land

Use

3

and 5

million

km2

Chapter 10

Modelled

Deployment

Levels for CO2

Concentration

Targets

Past Literature

Range of

Technical

Potentials

0-1500 EJ

Glo

ba

l P

rim

ary

En

erg

y S

up

ply

, E

J/y

2008 Global Biomass Energy

2050 GlobalEnergyAR4, 2007

2050 Global

Biomass AR4,2007

<440

ppm

440-

600

ppmTechnical

Potential

2050 Projections

Minimum

median75th

Maximum

100

300

150

190

80

265

300

Technical Potential

Based on 2008

Model and Literature

Assessment

118

20 25

25th

Percentile

2000 Total Biomass

Harvest for

Food/Fodder/Fiber

as Energy Content

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

World

North America

75

168

204

39

Oceania

55

93114

40

Japan

2 2 2 2

19 25 30

W.Europe

13 E.Europe

13 2429

5

CIS &

Baltic States

111

223

269

83

Caribean &

Latin America

160

232

279

87

sub-Saharan

Africa

117

282

347

49

Middle East &

North Africa

23139

2

South Asia

26 31 3723

East Asia

28

158

194

22

1270

1545

607

364

agricultural and forestry

wastes and residues

dedicated woody

bioenergy crops

surplus forest growth

agricultural and forestrywastes and residues

dedicated woody bioenergy cropson surplus agricultural land

Total bioenergy production potential in 2050 based on different agricultural

production systems (efficiency increasing form left to right)

Bioenergy production potential

In 2050 for different levels of

change in agricultural managementS

ourc

e:

Sm

eets

, F

aaij

2006

(Source: Kranzl et al., Chapter 8 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013)

Global solid trade by 2030/2050?

(Source: Kranzl et al., Chapter 8 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013)

Global liquid biofuels trade by 2030/2050?

Future of bioenergy trade…

• Main demand expected in OECD, China, India; main supply potential in Russia, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

• To make future supply and demand meet, significant further growth in biomass trade is needed.

• But: how to govern sustainable production and sourcing of biomass? How to deal with current and future demand for food, fuels and materials in the exporting regions…

To be discussed today…

Core objective:

‘to support the development of

sustainable, international bioenergy

markets and international trade,

recognising the diversity in resources and

biomass applications’

IEA Bioenergy Task 40

Martin Junginger

(Academic)

Peter-Paul

Schouwenberg

(Industry)

Task Leaders

Triennium 2013 – 2015

Task members:

• 10 chapters

• Summarizing the lessons of three triennia

• Solid & liquid biomass trade, logistics, sustainability,

country case studies, barriers & opportunities for

trade, outlook on future trade flows & required

investments, and more…

• With contributions from all Task 40 member

countries

• Available both as hardcopy and as e-book

• www.bioenergytrade.org