Bhatkal Re-emerges as the Finishing School of Terror

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OPEN TO OPINION Share Next POLITICS GAURAV C SAWANT @gauravcsawant | SITREP | 3-minute read | 05-01-2015 Was the Coast Guard chasing suspected terrorists or "poor innocent" drug mafia on the high seas on the night of December 31, 2014? Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has weighed in, saying they were suspected terrorists, given the nature of intelligence inputs, intercepts and suspicious movement of the Pakistani boat in the Arabian sea. Parrikar clarified the operation was mounted by Coast Guard based on specific intelligence input and positive identification by a Coast Guard Dornier aircraft. Subsequently a Coast Guard Inshore Patrol Vessel found the movement of the Pakistani vessel suspicious – loitering on high seas, with its lights switched off, not responding to repeated Coast Guard calls to identify itself and then the chase on the high seas. Five unanswered questions that indicate the boat had suspected terrorists: #1. Why didn't the sailors jettison the incriminating evidence? Top ranking officials dealing with counter smuggling operations in the Arabian Sea told Headlines Today that this is not how smugglers behave. Smugglers immediately jettison incriminating evidence. "Such is the nature of the game that smugglers immediate throw the incriminating cargo overboard. At 2,000 metres depth on the high seas, especially when the seas are choppy it is POLITICS | SPORTS | LIFE | SCI-TECH | MONEY | HUMOUR | ART & CULTURE More from TS Sudhir | POLITICS | Latest of the lot Bhatkal re-emerges as the finishing school of terror http://www.dailyo.in/opinion/bhatkal-re-emerges-as-the-finishing-school... 1 of 24 1/14/2015 09:07

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    GAURAV C SAWANT @gauravcsawant

    | SITREP | 3-minute read | 05-01-2015

    Was the Coast Guard chasing suspected terrorists or "poor innocent" drug

    mafia on the high seas on the night of December 31, 2014? Defence Minister

    Manohar Parrikar has weighed in, saying they were suspected terrorists, given

    the nature of intelligence inputs, intercepts and suspicious movement of the

    Pakistani boat in the Arabian sea.

    Parrikar clarified the operation was mounted by Coast Guard based on

    specific intelligence input and positive identification by a Coast Guard

    Dornier aircraft. Subsequently a Coast Guard Inshore Patrol Vessel found the

    movement of the Pakistani vessel suspicious loitering on high seas, with its

    lights switched off, not responding to repeated Coast Guard calls to identify

    itself and then the chase on the high seas.

    Five unanswered questions that indicate the boat had suspected terrorists:

    #1. Why didn't the sailors jettison the incriminating evidence? Top

    ranking officials dealing with counter smuggling operations in the Arabian

    Sea told Headlines Today that this is not how smugglers behave. Smugglers

    immediately jettison incriminating evidence. "Such is the nature of the game

    that smugglers immediate throw the incriminating cargo overboard. At 2,000

    metres depth on the high seas, especially when the seas are choppy it is

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    General Coast Guard said.

    #2. Why didn't they identify themselves? The occupants of the suspect

    Pakistani vessel were repeatedly told on loud hailers to identify themselves.

    According to United Nations Convention on Laws of the Seas, all vessels when

    stopped by the maritime security agencies are supposed to prepare for

    boarding and examination of documents and cargo. But the suspect Pakistani

    vessel tried to speed away, repeatedly attempting to dodge the Coast Guard

    Inshore Patrol Vessel. Smugglers do not do that. Such is the nature of the

    game that smugglers often do go to prison for a limited period of time but get

    off without adequate evidence.

    #3. Why did they set their boat on fire? Coast Guard officials find it

    strange that the sailors on board the suspect vessel, when challenged, went

    below deck and set the boat on fire. Smugglers do not burn their boat or

    commit suicide when challenged by the Coast Guard. The occupants of the

    Pakistani vessel did not want to be caught alive. The nature of their

    conversation with their handlers and the fact that they preferred to end their

    lives rather than be arrested points towards something far more sinister than

    a smuggling operation gone awry.

    #4. If they were smugglers, what was their cargo? Diesel and alcohol

    smuggling is no longer lucrative and especially not on the high seas, 200

    nautical miles from the coast line. The difference in prices of diesel in India

    and Pakistan is less than Rs 3 per litre and a 10 metre boat does not carry

    enough volume of diesel to make smuggling of diesel or even alcohol

    profitable for the operation or worth the risk. Even if the consignment was of

    drugs, dealers and peddlers are not likely to embrace "shahadat" for the loss

    of one consignment. Reports also indicate that the Pakistani vessel took the

    same route from Pakistan as was taken by the 10 Pakistani terrorists who

    attacked India on 26/11.

    #5. Even if they were smuggling arms, doesn't that make them

    terrorists? And finally even if intelligence inputs did not give the entire

    picture, smugglers are no innocents. Dawood Ibrahim was a smuggler used by

    ISI to ferry explosives to Mumbai before the 1993 blasts that left 257 people

    dead and over a thousand injured. Smugglers have been used by Pakistans

    ISI to explore chinks in the coastal security armour. This time those who

    dispatched the Pakistani vessel clearly bit more than they could chew.

    #Porbandar blast

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    P NARASIMHA @narsim1961

    HUMOUR | 0-minute read | 12-01-2015

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    P NARASIMHA @narsim1961

    Professional Cartoonist for past 30 years

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    #Vibrant Gujarat, #Mamata Banerjee, #Gujarat, #Anandiben Patel

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    TS SUDHIR @iamtssudhir

    POLITICS | 3-minute read | 12-01-2015

    All is clearly not well on the Karnataka coast. Especially with the port town of

    Bhatkal in Uttara Kannada district once again showing up on the terror radar.

    The town attained notoriety for having left an imprint in the world of jihadi

    terror thanks to the exploits of the Bhatkal brothers - Yasin and Riyaz. Now if

    the claims of the Bangalore police are anything to go by, the Bhatkal legacy

    lives on through more foot soldiers.

    Four men arrested last week have a Bhatkal connection, sending a shiver

    down the khaki spine. Interestingly, this Indian Mujahideen module was put

    under watch after a intel tip-off from the Andhra Pradesh police. After the

    Church street blast in Bangalore on December 28, the police moved in for the

    kill, presuming the module's hand in the blast. While it has not been to

    establish a link between the two, it unearthed in the bargain, the module's

    explosive CV.

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    TS SUDHIR @iamtssudhir

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    doctor who practices both in Bhatkal and Bangalore. Ideologically part of the

    Indian Mujahideen since 2004, he received training in assembling a bomb in

    2011 in Pakistan. Police sources claim he used the cover of visiting his in-laws

    in Karachi, to meet his handlers across the LoC. He is allegedly the person

    who supplied explosives to Indian Mujahideen operative Asadullah Akhtar

    alias Haddi and Pakistani national Waqas alias Hasan (both now arrested) to

    carry out the twin blasts in Hyderabad's Dilsukhnagar area in February 2013.

    The police claim this module procured and supplied explosives, using hawala

    channels to transfer money. Afaque procured the explosives from another

    accused, Saddam Hussein, who arranged it for a price. Hussein is reportedly

    not ideologically indoctrinated to the same extent as Afaque and has a

    business-like approach to terror, almost like a paid mercenary.

    That Dr Afaque was singing like a canary during the police interrogation was

    obvious when based on his information, the police picked up Riyaz Sayeedi on

    Saturday night when he was about to board a flight to Dubai from

    Mangalore's Bajpe airport. But even as there is hope that the arrest of the four

    men will help break the backbone of terror in this part of Karnataka, that may

    not happen. That is because the IM ensures each module operates

    independently of the other. One is not aware of the existence of the other

    modules.

    The fact that these sleeper cells managed to operate, keeping their head down,

    is obvious from the reaction of their families. They insist that they have been

    arrested only because of their postal address. Noor-ul-Nisa, Dr Afaque's

    mother asks if travelling to the home of his in-laws in Pakistan is a crime.

    Riyaz's sister Nafeesa says he works for a hardware company in Dubai. She

    adds the police found nothing at their home, which the cops corroborate.

    Cops in Karnataka believe both IM and SIMI modules are in different stages

    of activity or inertia and that their targets would be towns in Maharashtra,

    Goa, Hubli and Mangalore. What the arrests have done is to bring the heat

    back to the investigation trail that had gone cold, with the sleuths unable to

    establish how the explosives were sourced. Now with Afaque's arrest, the

    police believes they are in a position to connect the dots.

    #Bhatkal, #Indian Mujahideen, #Terrorism

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    position of DailyO.in or the India Today Group. The writers are solely responsible for any claims arising out of the contents of

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    RAJEEV DHAVAN

    POLITICS | 5-minute read | 12-01-2015

    The attack on the Charlie Hebdo office, the killing of unarmed innocent and

    the ensuing hostage crisis has excited trenchant controversy in India. One one

    hand, Haji Yaqub Qureshi justified the attack and offered Rs 51 crore to the

    killers (which we assume he has) inviting a police case against him. Qazi

    Rashideen of Meerut responded with: There is no place for terrorists in

    Islam.

    Mani Shankar Aiyar called the Charlie Hebdo attacks a backlash against the

    wanton attacks on Muslims. Sonia Gandhi is chastised for not correcting

    Aiyar. Bhanu Mehta has an inconclusive argument which counsels

    self-restraint, and liberal democracies not fighting bad guys to the end of the

    earth. Rushdie defends the cartoons as "satire". All government leaders of

    liberal democracies condemn the attack. Life will not be the same in France or

    Europe. At the end of the hostage crisis, the attackers have won martyrdom

    and huge publicity. Charlie Hebdo remains courageous to exercise its right of

    free speech to provoke at will.

    Martyrs

    How are we left at the end of this controversy, which is actually the

    beginning? First: there cannot be a right to kill. We live in a world where

    "right to kill" has curious recognitions in peace and war. The last century

    portrayed the worst killing machines of all time. The example of killing has

    been set by the US and others. Arms producers become merchants of death,More from TS Sudhir | POLITICS | Latest of the lot

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  • ambiguity in the Heller and McDonald cases (2008-10) over gun sales is

    symptomatic. True moral indignation against killings has lost its edge

    somewhere to become temporary and inconsequential. West Asia has been

    pulverised by the US and by jihadi groups. Israel claims the right to kill at all

    or any cost. We need a movement against the culture of killing. More so, the

    innocent and children. Ironically, two non-involved persons killed in Paris

    were Muslims Ahmed Mehrban and Mustapha Ourad. Nobody weeps, there

    is only outrage. All become heroes. There is need for a moral campaign

    against death merchants and guns. As technology advances, this becomes all

    the more important. Look at "mad" people in the US killing kids in schools,

    Khaps and terrorists killing in India, other groups elsewhere, "gun laws"

    encourage killing machines Hollywood movies glorify killing as action. We

    have become a world of "state" and "civil" terrorism, accepting (under-

    transient protest), killing as a way of life. The 21st century sports "state and

    "private killings" with weapons of increasing sophistication.

    The second issue relates to free speech. Let us be clear. Although gun-killing is

    what an Oxford philosopher would call a "speech-act", there is no way that

    killing is an exercise in free speech at all. No matter how provocative the free

    speech of others or actions of the state is, there is no right to kill as a "speech

    act", even if you feel retaliation justified. Cartoons and satire are a part of free

    speech. I believe in near absolute speech but there are limits to it in terms of

    its consequences. Consider Justice Holmes example of a person shouting

    "fire" in a crowded theatre. Consequences matter.

    Consequences

    Who should limit the consequences when there is an anticipated or existing

    clear and present danger? Life today has all the fragility of a tinder box. Who

    will effect restraint? The speech maker? Societys demonstrations? The jihadi

    or the terrorist? Or the state?

    India has strong laws to prevent free speech against public order, obscenity

    defamation, and affecting group sentiments, including religious believers. (On

    the latter (Section 153(a) (provoking enmity) Section 295A (outraging or

    insulting religious beliefs)).

    The problem with Indian laws, as interpreted by the government and the

    courts, is the total lack of balance in punishments.

    For example, Satanic Verses, Laine on Shivaji, Doniger on Hinduism,

    Sahmats Ramayana exhibition the list in endless, and is decided by vote

    bank politics. This mindless use of state power undermines confidence in

    state censorship. The silence of our politicians in the conversion controversies

    was deafening.

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    RAJEEV DHAVAN

    Supreme Court lawyer.

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    This takes us to self-censorship. The Danish and French cartoons went well

    over the top. The motive was to ridicule Islam until it became as banal as

    Catholicism. Or it was just perverse fun. In Islam, no pictorial representation

    of the Prophet has been permitted for 15 centuries. And now we have

    malevolent cartoons in what appears as a cartoon jihad against Islam? This

    does not absolve killing as counter-jihad. I have seen ridiculous Danish

    cartoons which, like the French, depict the Prophet as weird and that too as

    an animal. No! No! No! No! No!

    Third: how do you react to perverse speech? Certainly not by violence? Bhagat

    Singh notwithstanding, Gandhis answer was clear: (i) speech for speech and

    (ii) non-violent protests. The state, too, must permit this. The state must allow

    non-violent protests, which it often clamps perversely.

    Fourth: the Paris and Mumbai attacks were carried out by people prepared to

    die for martyrdom and publicity. Those of the faith must tell them that this

    route to be a martyr is not condonable. Evidently, India had information on

    Mumbai way earlier but ignored it.

    We have lost all moral sense of self-restraint and non-violence treating

    "death" perfunctorily. God help us. We are losing our capacity to help

    ourselves. Free speech is being debased.

    #Freedom of Expression, #Paris Shooting, #Charlie Hebdo

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    position of DailyO.in or the India Today Group. The writers are solely responsible for any claims arising out of the contents of

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    PIYUSH SRIVASTAVA

    POLITICS | 4-minute read | 12-01-2015

    The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawatis talisman seems to be

    crumbling. Mayawati may remain a factor in UP politics and indeed the state

    will remember her for the innumerable statues and memorials in Lucknow

    and Noida. However, there can not be denying she faces serious problems.

    The first problem Mayawati faces is infighting. Though disgruntled BSP

    leaders have alleged in the past that she runs the party as her personal

    fiefdom, it is for the first time that a Dalit leader has attacked the "Dalit Diva".

    Jugul Kishore, a former Dalit leader of the BSP, who was suspended for anti-

    party activities has dubbed the former chief minister as a daulat ki beti

    (daughter of wealth) instead of "Dalit ki beti" (daughter of a Dalit). Kishore

    went on to allege that Mayawati demanded Rs 60 crore for a Rajya Sabha seat,

    Rs one point five crore for an Assembly ticket and Rs 50 lakh on reserve

    Assembly seats. He also claimed he has a diary which will expose Mayawatis

    corrupt practices and has declared he will finish her politically.

    Even a Dalit is supposed to cough up at least Rs 50 lakh for a ticket in

    Mayawatis party. She has finished the BSP by collecting money in the name

    of Dalit politics and the result is for everyone to see. While the party used to

    be the third largest party in the country and the first in UP, it is now the third

    party in the state, Kishore said.

    But Mayawatis supporters allege that even Kishore is not totally free from

    allegations of corruption. They say Kishore, in the name of Dalit politics, has

    amassed wealth disproportionate to his known sources of income in the last

    15 years. Kishore has two luxury cars, two houses in Lucknow and

    Lakhimpur Kheri, a college in the name of his family members and over 100

    acres of land. He is known for asking ticket-seekers: I have a vote bank for

    you. What do you have to offer me in return? said a Mayawati loyalist.

    Corruption claims against Kishore are not new. But so far, the needle of

    suspicion is very much on the BSP supremo and her loyalists. A prime

    example is the case of former family welfare and mining minister Babu Singh

    Kushwaha, who is currently languishing in jail for the Rs 5,400 crore National

    Rural Health Mission (NRHM) scam. Critics claim Mayawati, as chief

    minister of UP, had defended Kushwaha in 2007 and 2011 because he

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    PIYUSH SRIVASTAVA

    Mail Today journalist based in Lucknow.

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    Dalit community remain fiercely loyal to her. But allegations of corruption are

    denting her image and that of the partys. Kishore alleges that this lust for

    money has blurred her political vision. Akhilesh Das, the partys former Rajya

    Sabha member too has made similar allegations against her. He claims

    Mayawati had demanded money from him to resend him to the Upper House.

    It is not, just not money that governs Mayawati. An insider within the party,

    gave a unique perspective into the way the BSP supremo worked: In 2008,

    when the Congress government was in minority in Parliament on the issue of

    India-US nuclear deal, Behenji had assigned the job of promoting herself as

    the prime ministerial candidate to an IAS officer of the state. He added that

    the said officer camped in Delhi for over a month, allegedly trying to lure MPs

    to back Mayawati but had to return empty handed. Mayawatis PM dream was

    further demolished by the Samajwadi Party (SP) president Mulayam Singh

    Yadav, who ditched all his alternative front partners and sat in the lap of the

    Congress to protect the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government from

    falling.

    Now the way Mayawatis own men are exposing her is a danger signal that she

    will not be able to regain power in the state, at least in the near future.

    Kishores and allegations by other former partymen have also ended her

    ambitions of being prime minister. More worrying for the BSP supremo is

    that she has already lost all her seats in the Lok Sabha and has only ten

    members in the Rajya Sabha currently. In the UP Assembly, the BSP has only

    80 legislators in of a House of 403.

    Despite all this, Behenji still remains a force to be wary of. A senior BSP leader

    reportedly advised to Kishore: Be careful of the wrath of Mayawati and her

    followers.

    Kishore clearly has heeded this advice. He has written a letter to home

    minister Rajnath Singh on Saturday demanding Z category security as he

    feels that his life is in danger. The fact that Mayawati can still instill such fear

    is a sign that the Dalit leader is still a force to be reckoned with.

    #Mulayam Singh Yadav, #UP, #BSP, #Mayawati

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    VIKRAM JOHRI @voharijikram

    POLITICS | 6-minute read | 12-01-2015

    Eerily, the Charlie Hebdo killings happened on the same day that a friend and

    I had a discussion about the contents of my Facebook account. For those of

    you who, in the slim chance, are not aware of this feature, Facebook provides

    a cover photo option on the profile page, where users put up things that are

    personal or meaningful to them.

    My cover photos are generally images of male love, with two men embracing,

    kissing, or just lying together in bed. I pick up these pictures from a film that I

    have watched, or a website that I am reading, because they feel personal

    and meaningful. When I watched Lilting, for example, I was so

    consumed with the tenderness between Richard and Kai (Ben Whishaw and

    Andrew Leung), that writing about it did not seem enough. I wanted to

    consecrate it in some grander way, and for weeks, my Facebook cover was a

    picture of the protagonists kissing.

    For obvious reasons, some of my friends do not agree with my cover photos

    subject matter. Not for any homophobic reasons but for proprietys sake. They

    think these pictures take away from the seriousness they associate with me,

    first as a person, but more pertinently, as a writer. They worry that I am

    tarnishing my image with the pictures. I totally get that you are gay, but

    when was the last time you saw someone put up pictures of straight people

    making out on their profile? a friend asked me the other day, as we watched

    news of the Charlie Hebdo massacre flash on TV (I will explain the connection

    in a bit).

    My friend has a point she does. I understand that the images are mildly

    provocative even if there is no pornography involved. The current picture, forMore from TS Sudhir | POLITICS | Latest of the lot

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  • directions. I concede it can be disconcerting to log into Facebook, say, early

    morning and be overwhelmed by the sight of too much entangled male skin, if

    one is not into that sort of thing. Is that a good reason for me to stop posting

    the pictures?

    Why provoke, right? When some of my relatives started complaining to my

    family about the photos, I was forced to consider if I should perhaps find a

    middle ground between expressing myself in whatever way I deemed fit and

    hewing to more conventional definitions of good taste (my immediate family,

    to their credit, never bothered me). They were only photos after all, I told

    myself, and were, at any rate, not a match on some of the stuff I was putting

    out there emotive write-ups in which I freely explored elements of gay

    identity that I found cute, difficult, or both. Why bother with a bunch of

    photos?

    But I kept coming across moments when a photo of two men would hold a

    resonance that a 1,000-word article bawling with rhetoric could only hope to

    achieve. One such moment happened as I watched the Italian gay web series

    G&T on YouTube recently. Tommaso and Guilio are childhood buddies who

    go through confusion, heartbreak and loss before discovering that they are,

    after all, meant for one another. The two make for such a beautiful couple,

    and not just because of their tortuous story. They are also really good-looking

    and come together on screen in a delicate simulation of how I imagine a

    perfect relationship to be. (I would like to say more, such as how desire

    between men plays itself out, how it is feeds off not merely the physical, but

    much more; but thats a topic for another piece.) There was no way I was

    going to rest until I had, in some way, let the world know about Tommaso and

    Guilio. So I picked up a picture of them nestling their necks and pasted it as

    my Facebook cover picture.

    Every gay man discovers his own way of locating himself in respect to his

    sexuality after coming out (if he finds the time and space to come out, that is).

    Sometimes this may involve overstepping conventional boundaries. It is only

    natural. Gay men and women go through their early lives, through school and

    college, in the hope of a real existence. If they are not being summarily

    bullied, they are at least keeping their most intimate desires to themselves for

    fear of ridicule and ostracism. When they gather the courage to finally come

    out, they cannot but begin to see the world through their sexuality. They come

    to wear it on their sleeve and rejoice in it as if it were a secret personal gift,

    until they find themselves and settle into calmer waters.

    My way of this celebration, among others, has been the Facebook pictures. Its

    not even a political statement anymore Look here, I am gay. It was, at one

    time, but my ship sailed a while ago and now I only post pictures of something

    that really moves me.

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  • Writer

    VIKRAM JOHRI @voharijikram

    Vikram Johri is a Bangalore-based writer.

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    not so adamant about it, I may have eventually given up on the goddamn

    thing out of sheer monotony. But now that I am assailed with questions of

    respectability, I make it a point to double down on my efforts and refuse to

    retire into the bunker. I dont think posting gay pictures puts me in a bucket

    that strips me of my standing as a writer. If anything, my choice to post

    whatever, melds with my choices as a writer to produce an all-encompassing

    gay identity. Remember, provocation is (or was) only partly my aim.

    Expression is another, and I dont see how I can resolve the conflict between

    that and someones discomfort without compromising on either my idea of

    propriety or theirs. To me, propriety is borne of love, or respect, or one of

    those gentle, worth-aspiring for emotions. Propriety is personal and

    malleable. And if it means I am going to get on some peoples wrong sides,

    that is a choice I am happy to make.

    As for the Charlie Hebdo link, I know the contexts are very different and there

    is no comparison between the complexity of terror and my own niche

    dilemma. But here it is. In the aftermath of the Paris massacre, Shekhar

    Gupta wrote on this website that he agreed with the cartoonists right to

    offend, even if he himself would not publish the cartoons in question. That is a

    laudable aim but one that I find untenable. I dont think I can sit on the fence

    and merely dip into the intellectual without getting my hands dirty, as it were.

    If I am called upon to take sides, I prefer to have my skin in the game. I am

    willing to earn the opprobrium that comes with putting (perhaps

    inappropriate) pictures of men making out online, if that is the price I am

    expected to pay for expressing myself.

    #Paris Shooting, #Charlie Hebdo

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    SANDEEP BAMZAI @sandeep_bamzai

    MONEY | 6-minute read | 11-01-2015

    You sell fear and panic and finally the public spectacle turns into a public

    execution. The last few days have seen a global risk aversion to equities with a

    former member of an exclusive club called PIGS Portugal, Italy, Greece and

    Spain Greece once again lurching its way to a new crisis. The slayings at

    Charlie Hebdo by Islamic gunmen and the resultant "Islamophobia" in France

    is only going to accentuate the complexities in Europe.

    Canadian political economist Daniel Drache reckons that Europe could well

    be on the verge of a fresh crisis. The happenings in France over the last couple

    of days have done nothing to change that feeling. A double whammy of weak

    economies struggling to find their feet forming a combustible mixture with

    deadly Islamic terror making its presence felt in Europe.

    Drache in an interview to Don Pittis of CBC News said that there is a lot of

    turmoil ahead and when you move to highly ideologised mentalities, then all

    sorts of things can happen. When institutions fail to adapt or change, then

    new policies and practices become possible in the crisis. Its a door opener and

    a door closer. You can't go back, said Drache. What is of equal concern to

    political and economic analysts in Europe is the rise of a radical Left party in

    Greece, Syriza, that the research group Oxford Economics says is heading for

    a decisive victory in the country's snap election which is about a fortnight

    away.

    Priority

    Almost overnight, the term "Grexit", coined nearly three years ago as a

    shorthand for Greece's departure from the Eurozone, is back in the news,

    according to Pittis. Last week in an interview to the Financial Times, Syrian

    leader Alexis Tsipras has said it will begin a crackdown on the country's

    elite, the wealthy oligarchs who, among other things, control Greece's media.

    The oligarchs are high on our agenda, George Stathakis, Syrizas economic

    spokesman, told the paper. They will be a priority for action.

    So, just when one thought that benign crude prices are going to have a

    salutary effect on energy-dependent economies like China and India, "Grexit"

    has returned to the lexicon to stoke the fires for the prophets of doom.More from TS Sudhir | POLITICS | Latest of the lot

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  • the Western world. In fact, the reverse is true. I will tell you why. On

    November 14, 2014, in an article entitled The Implications of $75 Oil for the

    US Economy in its publication Daily Observations, the highly respected

    hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, LP confirmed that lower oil prices will

    have a negative impact on the economy. After an initial transitory positive

    impact on GDP, the report explained that lower oil investment and production

    would lead to a drag on real growth of zero point five per cent of GDP. The

    firm noted that over the past few years, oil production and investment have

    been adding about zero point five per cent to nominal GDP growth but that if

    oil levels out at $75 per barrel, this would shift to something like negative zero

    point seven per cent over the next year, creating a material hit to income

    growth of one to one point five per cent. So, now we are looking at a triple

    whammy effect which can continue to spook the markets: lower crude prices

    (great news for India since every time the needle moves by a dollar

    downwards, India saves Rs 8,000 cr on its oil pool account), Greeces exit

    from the Eurozone, and the impact of Islamic terror on European nations.

    External shocks are something that India needs to be wary of as it attempts to

    begin its climb from the abyss of gloom. The other day, Bof A Merrill Lynch in

    its latest oil update stated, We see a growing risk of WTI (West Texas

    Intermediate) and Brent falling to $35 and $40 per barrel near-term to force

    either non-OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)

    producers or Saudi Arabia to cut. Saudi Arabias influential oil minister Ali

    Al-Naimi has asserted that the kingdom the worlds largest exporter of

    crude intends to persist with its current strategy of keeping its spigots open

    to win back market share regardless of how much oil prices fall. Whether it

    goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant, Al-Naimi said in an

    interview with the Middle East Economic Survey in the last week of

    December.

    Consternation

    The Telegraph of London believes that Al-Naimi will come under increasing

    pressure from other members of the OPEC to row back on its current strategy

    and agree to holding an emergency meeting of the cartel ahead of its next

    scheduled gathering in the summer. Opinions differ among the 12 members of

    OPEC over whether the decision to keep the groups quota of 30m barrels per

    day (bpd) of crude unchanged in November was the correct course of action

    given the risks this now poses to their economies. Saudis could blink too and

    cut supplies, says Bof A Merrill Lynch in its report.

    All of this is happening at a very crucial time in our economic turnaround

    plan. The BJP has come to power on a development plank and already the

    Sangh Parivars lunatic fringe has created consternation with its controversial

    statements. Added to that on the ground, there appears to be an erosion in

    Modis equity with the Ghar Wapsi programmes. This is the year ofMore from TS Sudhir | POLITICS | Latest of the lot

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  • Writer

    SANDEEP BAMZAI @sandeep_bamzai

    The writer is editor, Mail Today.

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    add ballast.

    The government is clearly showing intent with a catalogue of ordinances,

    unwilling to lie inert as the Opposition continues to impede the legislative

    process. Finance minister Arun Jaitley has articulated the new strategic

    imperative by saying that the Constitution provides for mechanisms to

    continue with the decision-making process. Those instrumentalities, one

    expects, will be utilised to the hilt.

    Once the Delhi elections are out of the way sometime in mid-February, there

    are no elections for the government till November 2015, when Bihar goes to

    the polls. With the electoral calendar freed up, Modi has a huge window of

    opportunity to ram reforms down our throats. There is another interesting

    nugget of information which needs to be factored into the equation. Last year

    almost Rs 97,000 crore came into equities, but debt flows have been

    humungous as much as one point seven times equity and the FIIs are

    betting on the impending rate cuts. Most analysts claim over the next 12 to 15

    months, a 100 basis points of cuts in both the repo and reverse repo rates,

    from seven per cent and six per cent respectively is anticipated.

    Stimulate

    India needs to stimulate its domestic demand, it has no choice. For that it

    needs a softer interest rate regime, which boosts demand through greater

    bank lending and investment. Unpalatable structural reform remains at the

    very kernel of change and shock therapy needs to be administered to a nation,

    which sadly has been deep in the arms of Morpheus for close to a decade. In

    fact, we need something akin to Arun Shouries disinvestment programme, to

    help shake us out of our stupor.

    If India has to remain insulated as it did in 1997 when the East Asian

    contagion ran riot or in 2008 when the Western economies fell off the cliff,

    then it has to ring fence itself with self-administration of brutal reforms. It

    will hurt, but then detox treatment is always painful. The question is do we

    have the stomach for it?

    #Charlie Hebdo, #Indian Economy, #Economic Reforms

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    position of DailyO.in or the India Today Group. The writers are solely responsible for any claims arising out of the contents of

    this article.

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    P NARASIMHA @narsim1961

    HUMOUR | 0-minute read | 12-01-2015

    #AAP, #Narendra Modi, #Arvind Kejriwal, #Delhi elections

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    position of DailyO.in or the India Today Group. The writers are solely responsible for any claims arising out of the contents of

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  • P NARASIMHA @narsim1961

    Professional Cartoonist for past 30 years

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    RAVINDRAN @1951ravi

    # Saffron sees others in Red .

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    RAHUL SINGH

    POLITICS | 5-minute read | 11-01-2015

    It could be Indias most sensational murder mystery of 2015, even though the

    alleged murder took place in the beginning of 2014. I am of course referring to

    the tragic end of Sunanda Pushkar Tharoor, the beautiful wife of the

    high-profile Indian member of Parliament and former minister, Shashi

    Tharoor. After remaining inexplicably silent for a year, the Delhi Police chief

    stunned the country by recently announcing that Sunanda had not committed

    suicide, nor died from an accidental dose of drugs and alcohol, as had been

    believed earlier, but had actually been done away with.

    Why it took the Delhi Police a whole year to come to this startling conclusion

    is baffling. Their explanation that India does not have a laboratory to test the

    viscera in question for poison, sounds both lame and questionable. Even if

    India does not have such a facility, why did it take a year to send the viscera

    abroad and get back the reports? The police point to the 15 bruises on

    Sunandas body and a puncture mark, to back their claim of violence and

    poisoning bruises and a mark that were visible a year ago.

    The timing of the police announcement is also suspect. It took place, with a

    Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-dominated government in power. WhenMore from TS Sudhir | POLITICS | Latest of the lot

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  • was a Congress minister and also close to the partys president, Sonia Gandhi.

    Is the police announcement connected with the change in government? It

    would seem so: The Indian police and even the main investigation agency, the

    Central Bureau of Intelligence (CBI), though they are meant to be immune

    from political pressures, are notorious for bending towards whichever party is

    in power. This could be the BJPs way of embarrassing Tharoor and the

    Congress party.

    Be that as it may, the needle of suspicion has fallen on Shashi Tharoor who, to

    avoid media glare, fled to an Ayurvedic health spa in his home state of Kerala

    (since then, he gave a brief press conference on January 9 evening).

    Meanwhile, his detractors have been baying for his blood. I was on a TV show

    the evening of the police announcement. The anchor of the show had already

    made up his mind on Tharoors guilt, as had most of the panelists, which

    included two women lawyer-activists. I could hardly get a word in, so worked

    up was the anchor and the panelists against Tharoor.

    At this point a personal disclosure is called for.

    I have known Shashi Tharoor, on and off, since his college days. His uncle

    (fathers brother), Tharoor Parameshwar, was the managing director of the

    magazine of which I was the editor, the Readers Digest. In fact, Shashis

    father, Chandran Tharoor, also worked for a short while with the Digest.

    Shashi was an outstanding student who went to the USA for higher studies,

    before joining the United Nations (U.N.). He rose in the U.N. to the second

    highest rank and when the top job, that of secretary general, fell vacant, he

    put up his candidacy, with the Indian government actively supporting it. Both

    the then Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, and Sonia Gandhi were said to

    have had a soft corner for him.

    Though Tharoor failed in his U.N. bid, he returned to India, joined politics,

    with the Congress giving him a safe seat in Kerala, from where he was

    elected to Parliament. He went on to become a minister. His undoing was his

    involvement in the lucrative cricket IPL and his somewhat messy personal

    life. He bought a stake in a cricket team and gave Sunanda, who had become

    his girlfriend (both had been married twice before), sweat equity worth a

    large sum in the team. His controversial cricket deal forced his resignation as

    minister. Meanwhile, he married Sunanda, a head-strong lady and a

    successful entrepreneur in Dubai. They became a very high-profile and

    glamorous couple, constantly in the news.

    Other women were clearly attracted to the handsome, intelligent and highly

    articulate Shashi Tharoor. Pakistani socialite, Mehr Tarar, was one of them.

    Sunanda discovered tweets and messages between the two that infuriated her.

    Tharoors domestic help, Narain, whom the Delhi Police have been

    questioning, has given a new twist to the case. He has revealed that oneMore from TS Sudhir | POLITICS | Latest of the lot

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  • Writer

    RAHUL SINGH

    Former Assistant Editor, Times of India; also Editor,

    Reader's Digest and Sunday Observer

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    RANBIR KHANNA @ranbir_k1

    P ing judgement, when the matter is still under investigation,

    is not fair.

    Narain also claimed that the couple had frequent fights and that Sunanda had

    told Tharoor that he was finished, just before her death. Well-known

    journalist Nalini Singh, a close friend of Sunanda, is also on record as saying

    that Sunanda was planning to hold a press conference, the implication being

    that she was going to expose her husband. Expose what? His supposed

    infidelity, or something else?

    So, was she murdered to keep her silent? And by whom? Apart from Tharoor,

    who could be the other possible suspects? What would have been their

    motives? The hotel in which she died has CCTV coverage of those who entered

    and left her room. It should not be difficult to identify all those persons and

    narrow down the suspects, if indeed she was murdered.

    To me at least, these wild conspiracy theories dont wash and the most

    plausible explanation for Sunandas death remains what the earlier autopsy

    report showed: Suicide or accidental death. However, the Delhi Police think

    otherwise and there is no doubt that many new and intriguing questions have

    been raised. I suspect the final answer to the mystery will take quite a long

    while to unfold.

    #United Nations, #Congress, #BJP, #Shashi Tharoor

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    PALASH KRISHNA MEHROTRA @palashmehrotra

    POLITICS | 4-minute read | 11-01-2015

    How does one define terror? The best definition, to my mind, is in a book

    published in 1901, a time when terrorism as we know it today, didnt exist.

    Christopher Hitchens quotes from it in his memoir Hitch 22. It comes from

    HFB Lynchs Armenia: Travels and Studies: Terror, the most abject terror,

    is in the atmosphere about us a consuming passion, like that of jealousy a

    haunting, exhausting spectre, which sits like a blight upon life. Such a settled

    state of terror is one the most awful of human phenomena. The air holds

    ghosts, all joy is dead; the sun is black, the mouth parched, the mind rent and

    in tatters.

    Terror

    Over the last few weeks we have seen a spate of terror attacks, each one very

    different from the other. There was the lone wolf attack in a Sydney cafe.

    There was the unprecedented massacre of more than a hundred

    schoolchildren in Pakistan. And then, most recently, the terror strike in Paris.

    The horrific shooting at the offices of French satire magazine Charlie Hebdo

    though is different from the usual. It was more than mere bloodshed. It was

    an attack on something abstract, a treasured French value the freedom of

    speech, which also includes the right to insult. The gunmen violently attacked

    individuals who stood for and executed these values, every working day of

    their lives. The French have a grand tradition of satire, and Charlie Hebdo

    had its own glorious past. It was not just fundamentalist Islam that their

    cartoonists lampooned. The Pope wasnt spared either. Neither were

    governments around the world. Nor were homophobes and racists. The idea

    being that there are no holy cows. Everything that should be sent up was sent

    up. Behind the joke lies something very serious. Its about questioning and

    critiquing the world around us. And doing so in as provocative a manner as

    possible. You ruffle feathers, you ruffle feathers. There is no polite way of

    going about it.

    The freedom to mock is crucial to any vibrant democracy. From political

    authoritarianism to religious bigotry, Charlie took on everything and

    everybody. You might disagree with some of it. But you cant stop people from

    expressing themselves. You certainly cannot kill them for doing so. On the

    contrary, as Voltaire said: I do not agree with what you have to say, but Ill

    defend to the death your right to say it.

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  • The right to "say it" is what has been defended by tens of thousands of people

    in Europe. The pen, pencil and paintbrush have become symbols of freedom.

    In marches, people have held up the pen to show their solidarity with the dead

    cartoonists. The pencil has featured prominently in the cartoons published in

    the aftermath. One shows pencils raining down like missiles. Another one

    shows two pencils crashing into the twin towers like aeroplanes.

    What we need to grasp is that freedom of speech is absolute and total. The

    right to offend and the right to insult is part of it. Its a cornerstone of

    European and American society. You can take on one "offensive" cartoon

    with, maybe, another cartoon, but never with the gun. In America, the First

    Amendment guarantees the right to preach hatred. Words and images dont

    kill anyone. Culture is all about debate and discussion, which, after all, is the

    business of words.

    Implications

    What are the implications of this for us in India? For here, it is the opposite.

    The right to insult is replaced with a hypocritical "right to respect". We dont

    poke fun at anything. No other liberal democracy bans as many books as we

    do. PILs are filed at will because the "sentiments" of an individual or

    community are always "being hurt". There is no question of questioning the

    orthodoxies of religion because we "respect all religions". As the cartoonist

    Sudhir Tailang said, Its very difficult for a cartoonist living in this part of the

    world to be able to freely express opinions on religion. This makes us a very

    unquestioning society. We blindly and unthinkingly respect everyone and

    everything. You respect your parents, your teachers, your elders, the boss.

    You agree with everyone. At the same time we are also an extremely intolerant

    society where demagogues deliver inflammatory speeches at will, but creative

    people self-censor, or dont question anything at all in the first place. And its

    not just about being humourless. As a society, we lack innovation, something

    that Nandan Nilekani never tires of pointing out. Creativity stems from

    irreverence, which we singularly lack. We might work more hours every week

    than anybody else, but at the end of the day, we remain a nation of

    underachievers.

    You ask an average Indian why we are like this, and hell say: this is India.

    What works in Europe and France doesnt work here. This is hardly an

    argument. Its this very rigidity that prevents us from borrowing ideas and

    values from other cultures. Its what prevents us from realising our dreams of

    becoming a "world power". We need to realise that freedom of speech is about

    the right to question. Its an absolute right that has to be protected at all costs.

    Without it, no progress is possible.

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  • Writer

    PALASH KRISHNAMEHROTRA @palashmehrotra

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    TS SUDHIR @iamtssudhir

    ART & CULTURE | 3-minute read | 11-01-2015

    It is a case of theatre owners and those who distributed Lingaa expecting

    Rajinikanth to emulate his character in real life. In Lingaa, the king

    Lingeswaran played by the Superstar, gives up his wealth and position to

    ensure the people of his kingdom in pre-1947 India live safely after a dam is

    constructed. Cut to 2014, when the distributors want Rajini to give up a part

    of his wealth, to compensate for the losses they claim they have incurred.

    The distributors contend that Lingaa that released on Rajini's birthday on

    December 12, did not do the kind of super business the Superstar's films are

    expected to. Not true, say those associated with the film. Lingaa was the

    highest Tamil grosser of 2014, reportedly earning Rs 100 crore. The movie

    made with a budget of Rs 120 crore reportedly sold its different rights for

    about Rs 200 crore. The filmmakers therefore say, the complainants are

    talking through their hat.

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  • Writer

    TS SUDHIR @iamtssudhir

    The writer is an editor with TV Today Network-India Today

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    per cent revenue but realised only 30 per cent. Arguing that he put in money

    banking on Rajinikanth, he wants the actor to compensate for the 70 per cent

    loss. There are 200 other distributors and exhibitors who relate a similar story

    and sat on a hunger strike in Chennai to appeal to the man in Poes Garden -

    Rajinikanth.

    Over the last three weeks or so, these distributors and exhibitors have been

    asking Rajini to do what he did in 2002, when his Baba became a black sheep

    at the box-office. Then Rajini had paid distributors who had lost money. Now

    again the distributors say they invested in Lingaa only because the producer

    Rockline Venkatesh and director KS Ravikumar had been identified to helm

    this project by Rajini. Which is why they are telling Rajini, "Whatever the

    revenue and what we have paid, adjust the money and refund."

    While the two sides indulge in verbal volleys, there is a lesson in this for the

    Tamil film industry. And for every other industry. That buyers need to take

    responsibility for their decision. A film is not like a white good that promises a

    particular quality. So if the showroom or online portal has delivered you a

    defective branded mobile phone or an ill-fitting shirt, you can exchange it or

    ask for a refund. But to expect every Rajinikanth film to be a money spinner

    without looking at whether the script had sufficient punch in it, makes bad

    investor sense. After all, even mutual funds proclaim that past performance is

    no indication of how the fund may perform in the future.

    At the same time, filmmakers too are guilty of over-hyping their product,

    especially if it features someone like Rajini. The budgets are lavish and the

    risk factor goes up manifold too. In this case, it has scalded the distributors

    and theatre owners and burnt a hole in the carefully built-up superstar image

    of Rajinikanth.

    #Rajinikanth, #Lingaa

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