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Transcript of BERNARD CHANZU Kenya Meteorological Department … · BERNARD CHANZU Kenya Meteorological...
BERNARD CHANZU
Kenya Meteorological Department
P.O. Box 30259 – 00100Nairobi, Kenya
Tel: 254-20-3876957/60Fax: 254-20-3876955 / 3877373
E-mail: [email protected]
LAYOUT � KMD Role
� Infrastructure
� Climate data management
� Climate monitoring products
� Climate out look prediction
� Activities in support of climate risk management Challenges
� Needs and issues
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� In Kenya:
�Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy.
�Pastoralism and Agro-pastoralism form the major livelihood activities of the country’s population in the Arid and Semi-arid Lands (ASALs).
�Hydro- energy generation for both industrial and domestic activities depends heavily on sufficient water in the hydro dams.
Note: All these activities and many others are principally rain dependent. Seasonal rainfall performance is, therefore, of great concern
to all stakeholders who depend on rainfall for their social- economic activities.
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Kenya Meteorological DepartmentAs stated in the WMO Convention, the purpose of a NMHS, like KMD, is in observing and understanding weather and climate and in providing meteorological, hydrological and related services in support of relevant national needs, which include the following areas:
a)Safety of life and protection of property;b)Safeguarding the environment;c)Contributing to sustainable development;d)Promoting long-term observation and collection of meteorological, hydrological and climatological data, including related environmental data;e)Meeting international commitments;,f)Contributing to international cooperation.
METEOROLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
� Data Observational systems;� Data telecommunication systems;� Data procession, analysis and forecasting
systems;� Product and information dissemination
systems;� Human resource capital
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NATIONAL
METEOROLOGIC
AL CENTRE
(NMC)
NATIONAL
METEOROLOGIC
AL CENTRE
(NMC)
OBSERVATIONS
(AWS, AWOS,
RADAR,
SATELLITE,
BUOYS ETC)
OBSERVATIONS
(AWS, AWOS,
RADAR,
SATELLITE,
BUOYS ETC)
TELECOMMUN
ICATIONS
(INTERNET,
AMSS, GTS,
GSM, VSAT,
PHONE, ETC)
TELECOMMUN
ICATIONS
(INTERNET,
AMSS, GTS,
GSM, VSAT,
PHONE, ETC)
DATA
PROCESSING
AND
FORECASTING
SYSTEMS
DATA
PROCESSING
AND
FORECASTING
SYSTEMS
HUMAN RESOURCE
DEVELOPMENT
(EXPERTISE, SKILLS &
COMPETENCE
HUMAN RESOURCE
DEVELOPMENT
(EXPERTISE, SKILLS &
COMPETENCE
PRODUCT
DISSEMINATI
ON
PRODUCT
DISSEMINATI
ON
AGRICULTURE AND
FOOD SECURITY
TRANSPORT (LAND,
SEA AND AIR)
WATER RESOURCES
HEALTH
DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
TOURISM
CLIMATE RISK
MANAGEMENT IN
AGRI. (WEATHER
INDEX INSURANCE)
CONFLICT EARLY
WARNING
CC ADAPTATION
& MITIGATION
METEOROLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES
METEOROLOGICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKThe Department’s Current Observational Network
consists of:Synoptic Stations:
�39 manned 24-hr Synoptic Stations, �14 agro-meteorological stations,
Automatic Weather Observing systems:�72 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs)� 3 Airport Weather Observation Systems(AWOSs) at JKIA, Wilson & MIA�17 Hydromet AWSs for Flood Forecasting
Rainfall Stations:�About 1000 rainfall stations most of which are operated
by Voluntary Observers7
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK Contd….Upper Air Station
• 1 Upper Air Station at Dagoretti• Acquired two other stations for Garissa and Lodwar
that are awaiting installation.Remote Sensing
• 3 Satellite ground receiving stations (2 for MSG and 1 for NOAA satellite data);
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CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK Contd….
Pollution Monitoring
• 1 Global Atmosphere Watch station on Mt. Kenya
• Two stations Nairobi –(ozone, so2 ,co,co2
etc )
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CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK Contd….
Tsunami Early Warning � Four tidal gauge stations
at Lamu, Mailindi, Kilifi and Shimoni for multi-hazard detection, ocean waves, sea level rise, salinity, sea surface temperature and water quality, including tsunami related at the Coast.
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CLIMATE DATA TRANSIMISSION ROLE
� Exchange and transmission of climate data nationally, regionally and internationally;
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Current Telecommunications Facilities
� National Telecommunications Network:�GSM technology is being used for data transmission from
most of the outstations to the HQs.
�The HF-SSB and telephones are used as back-ups to collect data from the synoptic weather observation stations.
�Computer Terminal units (internet links)
�Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) satellite-based communication systems,
�Automatic Message Switching Systems (AMSS) as well as other modern technological means available.
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SSB RADIOS
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Telecommunications Facilities
� Regional Telecommunications Hub (GTS node):� KMD has a regional responsibility and hosts the WMO
Regional Telecommunications Hub (RTH) for:
�Receiving and disseminating of weather data from neighboring countries to the rest of the world; and countries
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Climate Data Management
Climsoft Database Management System
�Data key entry
�Basic quality checks will be performed automatically
�Encoding
�Archival
�Products
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Current initiative� Data rescue -Convert paper forms to digital images by
photograph, Computer data entry(Climsoft) - (poor hand writing -challenge) about 10 % data rescued
� integrate data and products from all the observational systems(WIGOS Project)-status compilation of metadata and headers for computing, IMIS platform installed
� Data policy on exchange of climate data in line the International standards and best practices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
� Development of climate diagnostic laboratory -Have acquired cluster system for generating climate scenarios
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Climate monitoring products
� Seasonal climate out look
� Anomalies (monthly, seasonal and annual)
� extreme temperatures and rainfall
� Monthly Highest and lowest temps (monthly bulletin)
� Rainfall and temperature trends, (simple trends based on daily and values-regional)
� dry-spell analysis (done by agro met section as part of drought monitoring for agriculture- dekadal, monthly, seasonal bulletin
� onsets and cessation of rainfalls (issued in seasonal bulletins)
� Severe weather predictions and advisory c17
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OBSERVED APRIL 2012 RAINFALL
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
LO
DW
AR
MA
RS
AB
IT
MO
YA
LE
GA
RIS
SA
WA
JIR
MA
ND
ER
A
KIT
AL
E
KA
KA
ME
GA
EL
DO
RE
T
EL
DO
RE
T A
P
KE
RIC
HO
KIS
II
KIS
UM
U
NY
AH
UR
UR
U
NA
KU
RU
NA
RO
K
NY
ER
I
EM
BU
ME
RU
LA
IKIP
IA
M.A
.B.
DA
GO
RE
TTI
WIL
SON
JKIA
THIK
A
MA
CH
AK
OS
MA
KIN
DU
VO
I
LA
MU
MA
LIN
DI
MSA
BA
HA
MT
WA
PA
MO
MB
AS
A
AN
OM
AL
IES
STATION
Figure 2: October-December 2010 Rainfall Anomalies Showing Depressed Rainfall (in Red) at most Stations
FEBRUARY MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIME SERIES AT LODWAR
-4.000
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
YEAR
ST
AN
DA
RD
IZE
D T
EM
P.
Long-range forecasting methods
� Empirical Statistical
regression of sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients and the expected evolution of global SST patterns as well as upper air circulations patterns
� (ENSO events, IOD etc)
� Tropical cyclones
� Dynamical models from global producing center
� Drivers of weather/climate in Kenya
� ICPAC- products ,capacity building , consensus forum
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Indian Ocean Dipole as a driver of
weather/climate
--ve IOD: ve IOD: –– Normally Normally associated with depressed associated with depressed rainfall in the country. Mrainfall in the country. M ost of ost of the winds are offthe winds are off --shore of the EA shore of the EA CoastlineCoastline
Indian Ocean DipoleIndian Ocean Dipole
++ve IOD: ve IOD: -- Normally Normally associated with enhanced associated with enhanced rainfall in the country.. Most rainfall in the country.. Most winds are onwinds are on --shore to the EA shore to the EA coastlinecoastline
OUTPUTS FROM GPC
Dynamic model outputs from Global Producing Centers
Seasonal forecast for the
country
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Onsets and Cessations� Determine the ANALOGUE YEAR ( i.e. Scan through past
records to isolate a year(years)) with almost similar climate drivers as the current year.�An analogue year is defined as that year in the recent or
distant past that exhibits similar characteristics as the current year.
�The analogue year helps us to infer the characteristics of the season under investigation( i.e. Onset and Cessation dates as well as the likely rainfall distribution)
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Extremes in Kenya
� PEOPLES’ WELL BEING (HOUSING)
Housing Transport
Roads and Infrastructure Destruction Landslides after heavy rains
Activities in support of Climate Risk management and
early warning systems
� Issue 24 hr ,5 days, monthly and seasonal forecast contain advisory for any expected extreme event
� Established community radio broadcasting RANET
� Established regional weather offices- downscale national outlook to county level and engage users directly
� Established flood risk warning system along known rivers
� Regional obligation swfdp products issued by RSMC-NAIROBI
� Frequent seminars and workshops with stake holders including journalists, red cross, national disaster units among others
� Work with farmers groups for dissemination and feedback
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Severe weather product by
RSMC for the Region
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Needs/issues � Climate data rescue
� Capacity building in climate data analysis -regional based analysis methods
� Observational network expansions
� large gaps in available data
� Short historical data
� Lack/or non consistent metadata
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Thank You
For
Your Kind Attention