Behavior Change: From Individuals to Institutions

Third Annual Southeast Sustainability SummitORNL

Knoxville, TNAugust 22, 2013

Michael P. VandenberghProfessor of Law

Director, Climate Change Research Network Co-Director, Energy and Environmental Law Program

Papers at: http://ssrn.com/author=426704

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Individuals The Behavioral Wedge Specific Actions

Institutions Barriers New Options

Overview

Co-Authors Tom Dietz Gerald Gardner Jonathan Gilligan Paul Stern Michael Vandenbergh

Household Actions Can Provide a Behavioral Wedge to Rapidly Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions, 106 PROC. NAT’L ACAD. SCI. 18452 (2009) available at behavioralwedge.msu.edu and http://law.vanderbilt.edu/academics/academic-programs/environmental-law/climate-change-network/index.aspx

Behavior Change: Households

Average American’s Carbon Emissions

Source: SETH SHULMAN ET AL., COOLER SMARTER: PRACTICAL STEPS FOR LOW-CARBON LIVING Fig. 2.1 (2012)

Residential Electricity Consumption and Associated Emissions

Electricity consumption per residential customer megawatt-hours/yr in 2009

Electricity-associated CO2e emissions per residential customer pounds per residential customer in 2009

Source: U.S. EIA data for state-level residential electricity sales. Emissions rates are calculated based on CO2e emissions factors for subregions from U.S. EPA eGrid dataset for year 2009, and assume electricity transmission losses of 7% for all states.

Average Household Energy Consumption by End-Use

million Btu in 2009

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Preliminary Comparisons- 14,779 pounds/year = 33% of US total

- 4.1 trillion (individual) > 3.9 trillion (industry)

- US generated 24.4% of world total in 2000

- US individual share is ~ 8% of world total

- Larger than Central Am., South Am., and Africa combined

- Larger than all of Russia, all of India

- 2/3 the total for China

The Aggregate Impact of Individual BehaviorVandenbergh & Steinemann (2007)

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Viable, Fast Gap-Filler Near-term and Long-term Reductions Low Cost and Intrusiveness Energy and Carbon Reductions Magnitude

US = ~ 17% below 2005 Levels by 2020 is ~280 MtC/year

RAER-10 = 123 MtC (static)(33% of US total)

The Role of the Behavioral WedgeDietz et al, Household Actions Can Provide a Behavioral Wedge to Rapidly Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions, 106 PROC. NAT’L ACAD. SCI. 18452 (2009)

Behavior Change Category

Potential Emissions Reduction

(MTC)

Behavioral Plasticity

RAER (MTC) RAER (%I/H)

Weatherization W 25.2 90% 21.2 3.39%HVAC Equipment W 12.2 80% 10.7 1.72%Low-flow showerheads E 1.4 80% 1.1 0.18%Efficient water heater E 6.7 80% 5.4 0.86%Appliances E 14.7 80% 11.7 1.87%LRR tires E 7.4 80% 6.5 1.05%Fuel-efficient vehicle E 56.3 50% 31.4 5.02%Change HVAC air filters M 8.7 30% 3.7 0.59%Tune up AC M 3.0 30% 1.4 0.22%Routine Auto Maintenance M 8.6 30% 4.1 0.66%Laundry temperature A 0.5 35% 0.2 0.04%Water heater temperature A 2.9 35% 1.0 0.17%Standby electricity D 9.2 35% 3.2 0.52%Thermostat setbacks D 10.1 35% 4.5 0.71%Line drying D 6.0 35% 2.2 0.35%Driving behavior D 24.1 25% 7.7 1.23%Carpooling & Trip-chaining D 36.1 15% 6.4 1.02%

Totals 233   123 20%

The Behavioral WedgeDietz et al, Household Actions Can Provide a Behavioral Wedge to Rapidly Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions, 106 PROC. NAT’L ACAD. SCI. 18452 (2009)

Source: McKinsey (2007)

Cost-Effective Household Options

The California Example

Source: http://wwweia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_use/total/csv/use_csv

Per Capita Electricity Consumption

BarrierLack of Understanding and Use of Behavioral Lessons

Moving beyond a ‘rational actor’ model– Putting Price in Context– Energy Invisibility– Cognitive Miscalculations– Valuing Cognitive Costs

Marketing behavior change– Framing Effects– The Attitude-behavior Gap– Communicating Social Norms

Price Plays An Important But Limited Role

Source: Paul Stern, Information, Incentives, and Pro-environmental Consumer Behavior, 22 J Cons Policy 461 – 478 (1999)

Economic Incentives Can Be Counterproductive

Source: U. Gneezy & A. Rustichini, A Fine is a Price, 22 JOURNAL OF LEGAL STUDIES 1- 17 (2000).

Barrier: MythsMotor Vehicle Idling

Over 80% of Americans hold inaccurate/outdated beliefs about idling.

It is better to idle for __ in order to: Save gas: 4.7 minutes Prevent pollution: 3.6 minutes Prevent vehicle wear: 5.7 minutes

Minutes/day

% of population

Daily US Emissions

(million lbs / kg)

Annual US emissions

(MMt)

Daily US consumption

(million gallons / liters)

Annual US consumption

(billion gallons / liters)

Warming 2.748%

(91.2 million)45.6 / 20.7 7.5 2.3 / 8.7 0.9 / 3.4

Waiting 3.146%

(87.4 million)50.2 / 22.8 8.3 2.6 / 9.8 0.9 / 3.4

Total 95.8 / 43.5 15.8 4.9 / 18.5 1.8 / 6.8

CO2 Emissions Fuel Consumption

Table 3. Estimated CO2 emissions and fuel use associated with unnecessary idling in the U.S.

Source: Carrico, et al., Costly Myths: An Analysis of Idling Beliefs and Behavior in Personal Motor Vehicles, 37 Energy Policy 2881-2888 (2009).

Perceived effectiveness of hand-washing at various temperatures

Highly effective

Not at all effective

Barrier -- Myths Hot Water Hand Washing

Source: Carrico, et al., The Environmental Cost of Misinformation: Why the Recommendation to Use Warm Water for Handwashing is Problematic, 36 INT’L J. OF CONSUMER STUDIES 1-9 (2013)

Hand Washing – GHG Emissions• The average respondent reported using warm or hot water 64% of the time.

• When multiplied by the 8 billion hand washes performed by Americans each year, results in > 6 MMt of CO2eq/yr.

• 6 MMt of CO2eq/year is:

– 0.1% of annual US emissions

– Greater than the annual emissions of 2 coal fired power plants

• Updating beliefs could reduce total US emissions by 1 MMt annually.

• 1 MMt is greater than the annual emissions of:

– The Zinc or Lead industries

– Countries such as Malawi or Barbados

Source: Carrico, et al., The Environmental Cost of Misinformation: Why the Recommendation to Use Warm Water for Handwashing is Problematic, 36 INT’L J. OF CONSUMER STUDIES 1-9 (2013)

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Fuel Economy Guide 2011, available at www.fueleconomy.gov

Energy InvisibilityEffect of Speed on Fuel Economy

Energy InvisibilitySolutions

There is a potential for rapid, low-cost emissions reductions by updating beliefs.

Provide information at the time of use. Home energy feedback displays (5-15% reduction) Product-integrated feedback mechanisms.

BarrierCognitive Miscalculations

Steep discount rates - tendency to devalue future savings relevant to up-front savings.

Miscalculation of potential savings (Kempton et al., 1982;

Kempton & Montgomery, 1982).

Failure to consider operating costs altogether (Feiler & Sol, 2009).

BarrierCognitive Costs -- The Law of Least Effort

Source: Eric J. Johnson, Daniel Goldstein, Do Defaults Save Lives, 302(5649) SCIENCE 1338 – 1339. (2003).

Framing: Preferences Depend on Context

Source: David J. Hardisty,& Elke U. Weber, Discounting Future Green: Money Versus the Environment. 138(3) J EXP PSYCHOL GEN 329 – 340 (2009).

BarrierEffective Communication of Social Norms

Social Influence Often Trumps Other Influences

The desire to accommodate social norms drives behavior. 75% of participants gave an obviously wrong answer (Asch, 1951).

Better to highlight what people are doing right rather thanwhat they aren’t doing right.

Social Influence

[DN] “Many past visitors have gone off the established paths, changing the natural state of the Sequoias and vegetation in this park”

[IN] “Please don't go off the established paths and trails in order to protect the Sequoias and natural vegetation in this park”

33 Source: Winter, et al, Choosing to encourage or discourage: Perceived effectiveness of prescriptive and proscriptive messages. 2 ENV MANAG 588-594 (2000).

Social Influence

Source: Ayres et al. Evidence from Two Large Field Experiments that Peer Comparison Feedback can Reduce Residential Energy Usage, Working Paper

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If these solutions are available, why haven’t they been widely adopted?

Beliefs and World Views Framing Institutional Incentives Scalability

The Private Governance Option

Barriers

Source: Dunlap & McCright (2008)

Barriers: Beliefs and World Views

Barriers: Beliefs and World Views% of Americans Who Believe Global Warming Will Pose a Serious Threat to

Them or Their Way of Life During Their Lifetime, by Party (McCright 2013)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001 2002 2006 2008 2009 2010

Democrat Republican

Source: House Committee on Energy and Commerce, http://bit.ly/6Xgyon

Barrier: Source Framing

Total CO2 Emissions by Economic Sector (2006)

Sector/Source

2006 Emissions

(MMTCO2eq) Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries, Mining & Construction 382.8

Manufacturing 1,516.2

Transportation 912.1

Other Services 1,114.9

Government 288.9

Households 1,841.8

TOTAL 6,056.7

Source: U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT, U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INTENSITIES OVER TIME: A DETAILED ACCOUNTING OF INDUSTRIES, GOVERNMENT AND HOUSEHOLDS 7, Fig. 3 (2010)

The One Percent Problem National CO2 Flows

Stack & Vandenbergh (2011)(data from CAIT 2010)

The One Percent Problem National CO2 Stocks

Stack & Vandenbergh (data from Baumert et al. 2005)

The One Percent Problem US Industry Aggregate Direct and Indirect Emissions

Stack & Vandenbergh (data from USDC, E&S Admin.)

Barrier: Institutional IncentivesWho Profits if Households Use Less Energy?

Barrier: Scalability and the Attitude-Behavior Gap

Attitudes are poor predictors of behavior. Product marketing vs. behavioral marketing. Most successful mass media campaigns go beyond

informational appeals. Door-to-door canvassing Peer education Normative persuasion

Need to balance community-based approaches with widespread scalability.

Barrier: Conceptions of GovernanceMajor Pollution Control Statutes 1970-2012

(Vandenbergh, Private Environmental Governance (forthcoming 2013))

Included: Excluded:

1970 Clean Air Act 

National Environmental Policy Act 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act 

Coastal Zone Management Act

1974 Safe Drinking Water Act 

1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act 

Toxic Substances Control Act 

1977 Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act 

Clean Air Act AmendmentsClean Water Act

1980Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act 

1984 Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments (to RCRA)

1986 Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act SARA Amendments (to CERCLA)

1990 Oil Pollution Act 

Clean Air Act Amendments

1986 SDWA Amendments

1987 Water Quality Act

1988 FIFRA Amendments

1996 FQPA, SDWA Amendments

2002 CERCLA Amendments

What Has Filled the Gap? (STEERING COMMITTEE OF THE STATE-OF-KNOWLEDGE ASSESSMENT OF STANDARDS AND

CERTIFICATION, TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY: THE ROLES AND LIMITATIONS OF CERTIFICATION (2012))

What Has Filled the Gap?

• Fish --

• Toxics -- “ ‘The loss of public confidence [means] we’re going to increasingly have retailers that are regulators, like Wal-Mart and Target.’ ” (Inside EPA, 4/1/11)(quoting Ernie Rosenberg of the American Cleaning Institute)

McDonald's USA first national restaurant chain to serve MSC certified sustainable fish at all U.S. locations

New Options: Private Governance

Beijing, China January 2013Daytime with 755 ppm PM2.5 WHO scale is 0 to 500 ppm

Source: http://img3.douban.com/view/status/raw/public/96a57cec4b3bac7.jpg

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Private and Public Governance Global Private Carbon Label for Products Corporate Scope 3 Disclosure Influence of Consumers, Investors, Employees, etc. Firm-to-Firm Firm-Level Incentives Nation-Level Incentives

Firm Behavior & Supply Chains

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Exports up to ½ of China’s CO2 Emissions US and Europe 41% of Exports US and Europe 14-28% of CO2 Emissions Firms Influence Emissions Directly Firms Also Influence Nations

Private Governance: Harnessing Supply Chains

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We know a great deal about how to influence energy and environmental behaviors. We are not using much of what we know. Institutional incentives and structures are critical. New private options are a viable complement.

Conclusion