Basic Knowledge Decision Support Systems. · Decision Support Systems –Basic Knowledge...

Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge

Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean 1 / 28

Decision Support Systems. Basic Knowledge

Information

Decision

Decision-making process

Decision support systems

Intelligent decision support systems

Expert system

Industry 4.0 - decision

Selective glossary



Information [Jo Owen, Cum sa fii un bun manager – traducere (How to Manage. The

Art of Making Things Happen), Editura Polirom, 2008]

Not all information is of equal value. There is a hierarchy of

information and power.

The raw data have little value and are available to anyone

The information involves processed data – useful and dangerous.

Processed data can be used by managers in the same way the lawyers

use evidence – rather support their case than discover the truth.

Managers need to be able to quickly transform data into information

and make decisions.

Intelligence is information that is not available anyway and to

anyone.



The raw data have little value and are available to anyone

The information involves processed data – useful and dangerous.

Processed data can be used by managers in the same way the lawyers

use evidence – rather support their case than discover the truth.

Managers need to be able to quickly transform data into information

and make decisions.

Intelligence is information that is not available anyway and to

anyone.

Essentially, intelligence transforms “what” and “how” from the information

into the “why” and “when” of the decision making process.

What makes information finished intelligence is the analysis of information.

Intelligence

o Intelligence:• the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills

• the collection of information of military/economic/political value



Decision

Hotărâre luată în urma examinării unei probleme, a unei

situații etc., soluție adoptată (dintre mai multe posibile);

rezoluție. ♦ Hotărâre luată de un organ al administrației de

stat sau de un organ de jurisdicție. [DEX]

A choice that you make about something after thinking

about several possibilities [Cambridge dictionary]


Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean

The brain is responsible...

The neocortex, as the name implies, is the newest addition to our brain and is

considered to be the crowning achievement of evolution and the biological

substrate of human mental prowess.

If any organ of our body should be substantially different from any other

species, it is the cerebral neocortex, the center of extraordinary human

cognitive abilities [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2913577/]

The neocortex

it is located in the front of the head between your temples

it receives and stores information for decision making and remembering

it is involved in higher functions such as sensory perception, generation of motor

commands, spatial reasoning, conscious thought, and in humans, language

it helps us parcel out actions and responses to our environment [https://www.sharecare.com/health/functions-of-the-brain/what-is-the-neocortex]



The decision is made in the neocortex if it is a free decision.

“free” decision (free will) vs. “right” decision

Situation 1: You are in an exotic country. You have the choice between 2

dishes, both unknown.

A free decision is made if the brain is confronted with a new

situation that it can not associate with experiences or past events.

Situation 2: You are at the pedestrian crossing. A car is approaching to the

right. Do you cross or wait?

Correct decision is taken almost unconsciously and with a minor

involvement of the neocortex because the situation in which the decision

has to be made has been encountered and/or can be associated with past

events.



Decision Making

Process of choosing amongst alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining one or more goals. [Turban, Sharda, Delen,

Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]

Decision making process involves:

the existence of a problem to be solved => problem formulation multiple ways of action (for only one way – no decision is needed) the existence of one or more goals (destinations, results, etc.)

E.g.: The travelling salesman problem (TSP) "Given a list of cities and the distances between each pair of cities, what is the shortest possible route that visits each city exactly once and returns to the origin city?"



Managerial Decision Making

o Synonymous with the entire management process

Managerial function of planning involves a series of decisions

what should be done?

when?

where?

why?

how?

by whom?

Managers set goals or plan => planning implies decision making

Other managerial functions (e.g. organizing and controlling)

involve decision making



Phases of Decision-Making Process

o It is advisable to follow a systematic decision-making process

o Three major phases (H.A. Simon)

intelligence

design

choice

implementation

• monitoring

Intelligence

Design

Choice MonitoringImplementation

o Intelligence:• the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skils

• the collection of information of military/economic/political value



Intelligence phase

the decision maker examines reality and identifies and defines

the problem

Design phase

a model that represent the system is constructed

making assumption and simplify reality and writing down

the relations among all the variables

the model is validated

Choice phase

selection of the proposed solution

testing the solution

reasonable solution => implementation

Implementation phase

solving the real problem - succes



The decision-making/modeling process diagram[Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]

• the decision maker examines

reality and identifies and

defines the problem

• a model that represent the

system is constructed

• making assumption and

simplify reality and writing

down the relations among

all the variables

• the model is validated

• selection of the solution

(reasonable - optimization)

• testing the solution

• solving the real problem - succes



Decision Suport Systems - definition

”Systems designed to support managerial decision-making in unstructured problems” (E. Turban)

” Interactive, computer-based systems that aid users in

judgment and choice activities.” (M. Druzdzel)

“A conceptual framework for a process of supporting

managerial decision making, usually by modeling problems

and employing quantitative models for solution analysis”.

There is no universally accepted definition!



Decision Support

Systems – key

characteristics

and capabilities

[Turban, Sharda, Delen,

Decision Support and

Business Intelligence, 9th

edition, Pearson Education

Limited, 2014]



Decision Support Systems – schematic view[Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]



Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS)

Definition

• IDSS incorporating knowledge-based methodology, are

designed to aid the decision-making process through a

set of recommendations reflecting domain expertise

(Wang 1997) [1].

• IDSS aim to provide decision makers with timely, useful

and valid information based on some pre-coded domain

knowledge (Burstein and Carlsson 2008)[1].

[1] A. Kaklauskas, Biometric and Intelligent Decision Making Support, Springer, 2015, ISBN 978-3-319-13659-2,

2015



Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS).

Definition – cont.

[1] A. Kaklauskas, Biometric and Intelligent Decision Making Support, Springer, 2015, ISBN 978-3-319-13659-2, 2015

S. Viademonte and F. Burstein, “From knowledge discovery to computational intelligence: A framework for intelligent decision support

systems,” Chapter 4 in “Intelligent Decision-making Support Sytems,” Springer-Verlag London Limited, pp. 57-78. 2006

• IDSS are interactive computer-based systems that use data,

expert knowledge and models for supporting decision-makers in

organizations to solve semi-structured problems by

incorporating artificial intelligence techniques (Sarma,1994) [1]

• IDSS is a system that helps in decision-making through a

display of intelligent behavior that may include learning and

reasoning. Such learning and reasoning can be achieved through

implementing rule-based expert systems, knowledge-based

systems or neural network systems [2]



Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS).

An IDSS should behave like a human consultant, supporting

decision makers by:

gathering and analyzing evidence,

identifying and diagnosing problems,

proposing possible courses of action

evaluating the proposed actions.

The aim of the CI/AI techniques embedded in an IDSS is to

enable these tasks to be performed by a computer, while

emulating human capabilities as closely as possible.



Important concepts/components

in designing IDSS

text and data analytics

text, data and process mining

expert and advisory systems

artificial neural networks

intelligent agents

natural languages processing

expert systems

fuzzy logic

rough sets

case based reasoning

genetic algorithms

support vector machines

knowledge sharing

machine learning

learning algorithms

data mining



Expert System (ES). Definition

• A computer system that applies reasoning methodologies

to knowledge in a specific domain to render advice or

recommendations, much like a human expert.

An ES is a computer system that achieves a high level of

performance in task areas that, for human beings, require

years of special education and training [Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision

Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]

• Program de exploatare inteligentă a unei baze de date

caracteristice unui domeniu particular de aplicație [DEX].



Expert and Expertise

• Expert: A human being who has developed a high level of

proficiency in making judgements in a specific, usually

narrow domain. [Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th

edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]

• Expertise: The set of capabilities that underlines the

performance of human experts, including extensive domain

knowledge, heuristic rules that simplify and improve

approaches to problem solving, metaknowledge and

metacognition, and compiles forms of behavior that afford

great economy in a skilled performance. [Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision

Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]



Human expert vs. expert systemAspect Human expert Expert system

Time availability working day any time

Geographical specific location wherever

Security not replaceable can be replaced

Perishable yes no

Performance variable consistent

Speed variable consistent an faster

Knowledge transfer difficult easy

Knowledge documentation difficult easy

Creativity high low

Adaptability high low

Knowledge type ”common sense”, technical technical



Why ES was developed to replace experts?

• Can provide expertise at all times and in various

locations

• Automatically doing routine tasks that require an

expert.

• An expert will retire or leave

• An expert is expensive

• Expertise is needed also in a hostile environment

[https://newartificialintelligence.wordpress.com/tag/expert-systems-vs-human-expert/]



Expert System – key components

knowledge base – contains factual knowledge (problem formulation) and rules (how to solve problems)

IF Sun THEN wear sunscreen

inference engine- the brain of ES- way of using knowledge

user interface - menu, graphical interface, display



Industry 4.0 and Decision

• Current trend of automation and data exchange in

manufacturing technologies.

• It includes o cyber-physical systems,

o the Internet of things,

o cloud computing,

o cognitive computing.

• Industry 4.0 is commonly referred to as the fourth industrial

revolution

Industry 4.0 (I4.0; I4)

[Industry 4.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0]



Industry 4.0 (I4.0; I4)

Interconnection

The ability of machines, devices, sensors, and people to connect and

communicate with each other via the Internet of Things (IoT) or the

Internet of People (IoP)

Information transparency

The transparency provides operators with vast amounts of useful

information needed to make appropriate decisions.

Interconnectivity allows operators to collect immense amounts of data and

information from all points in the manufacturing process, thus aiding

functionality and identifying key areas that can benefit from innovation

and improvement.

There are four design principles in Industry 4.0




The Evolution of Industry From 1.0 to 4.0

https://www.seekmomentum.com/blog/manufacturing/the-evolution-of-industry-from-1-to-4

https://www.seekmomentum.com/blog/manufacturing/the-evolution-of-industry-from-1-to-4



UNIVERSITY 4.0: IS THE UK DOING ENOUGH TO PREPARE

STUDENTS FOR THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION?

http://blogs.brighton.ac.uk/thedigitalrevolution/2018/04/03/uk-

preparing-students-fourth-industrial-revolution/

The breakthrough of industries

that has come to form the

fourth industrial revolution

http://blogs.brighton.ac.uk/thedigitalrevolution/2018/04/03/uk-preparing-students-fourth-industrial-revolution/



Technical assistance

First, the ability of assistance systems to support humans by aggregating

and visualizing information comprehensively for making informed

decisions and solving urgent problems on short notice.

Second, the ability of cyber physical systems to physically support

humans by conducting a range of tasks that are unpleasant, too

exhausting, or unsafe for their human co-workers.

Decentralized decisions

The ability of cyber physical systems to make decisions on their own and

to perform their tasks as autonomously as possible.

Only in the case of exceptions, interferences, or conflicting goals, are

tasks delegated to a higher level.




Selective glossary - 1

business intelligence – a conceptual framework for decision support. It

combines architecture, databases (or data warehouse), analytical tools,

and applications [1]

data – raw facts that are meaningless by themselves (names, numbers)[1]

data analytics (analysis) – the process of examining data sets in order

to draw conclusions about the information they contain, increasingly

with the aid of specialized systems and software. [2]

- a process of inspecting, cleansing,

transforming, and modeling data with the goal of discovering useful

information, suggesting conclusions, and supporting decision-making [3]

data mining – a process that uses statistical, mathematical, artificial

intelligence, and machine learning techniques to extract and identify

useful information and subsequent knowledge from large dataset [1]

data science - is the interdisciplinary process of importing, cleaning,

manipulating, modeling, and visualizing data [4]




decision making – the action of selecting among alternatives [1]

forecasting – predicting the future [1]

Industry 4.0 - the current trend of automation and data exchange in

manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the

Internet of things, cloud computing and cognitive computing.

Industry 4.0 is commonly referred to as the fourth industrial

revolution [6]

intelligence – a degree of reasoning and learned behavior,

usually task or problem-solving oriented [1]

knowledge – understanding, awareness, or familiarity acquired

through education or experience; anything that has been learned,

perceived, discovered, inferred, or understood; the ability to use

information [1]




learning – a process of self-improvement where the new knowledge is

obtained through a process by using what is already known [1]

machine learning ML – the process by which a computer learns from

experience (e.g. using programs that can learn from historical cases) [1]

sub-field of Data Science;

metadata – data about data; in a data warehouse metadata describes

the content of a data warehouse and the manner of its use [1]

optimization – the process of identifying the best possible solution to a

problem [1]

pattern recognition – a technique of matching an external pattern to a

pattern stored in a computer’s memory (i.e. the process of classifying

objects into predetermined categories) [1]

predictive analysis – use of tools that help determine the probable

future outcome for an event or the likelihood of situation occurring [1]



Selective glossary problem solving – a process in which one starts from an initial state

and proceeds to search through a problem space to identify a desired

goal [1]

time series - a set of regular time-ordered observations of a

quantitative characteristic of an individual or collective phenomenon

taken at successive, in most cases equidistant, periods/points of time.

Components: seasonal variation, trend variation, cyclical variation,

random variation[5].

[1] Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education

Limited, 2014

[2] http://searchdatamanagement.techtarget.com/definition/data-analytics

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_analysis

[4] https://www.datacamp.com/

[5] https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2708

[6] Industry 4.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0

http://searchdatamanagement.techtarget.com/definition/data-analytics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_analysis

https://www.datacamp.com/

https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2708

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0

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