Decision-making Decision-making SystemsSystems

OverviewOverview

What managers do?

Decision-making

Many views of MIS

Types of MIS

What managers What managers do?do?

59.0%

10.0%6.0%

22.0%

3.0%

Pie 1

Regular meetings

Other meetings

Phone callsDesk work

Travel

Managerial roles and IS supportManagerial roles and IS support

Role IS support

interpersonal e-mail, video/teleconferencing, computer-mediated meetings

informational TPS,MIS,EIS,OIS

decisional DSS,GDSS,EIS, AI/ES

Decision-makingDecision-making

Intelligence

Design

Choice

problem definition

alternatives

resolution

Information Requirements of Decision MakersInformation Requirements of Decision Makers

OperationalManagement

Operating Management & Self-Directed Teams

Tactical Management

Business Unit Management Self-Directed Teams

StrategicManagement

Executives & Directors

Structured

Semi-Structured

Unstructured

Decision Structure Information Characteristics

InformationDecis

ions

Ad HocUnscheduledSummarizedInfrequentForward LookingExternalWide Scope

PrespecifiedScheduledDetailedFrequentHistoricalInternalNarrow Focus

Decision Support in BusinessDecision Support in Business

Time DimensionTime DimensionContent DimensionContent DimensionForm DimensionForm Dimension

Decision Support in BusinessDecision Support in BusinessCharacteristics of Information ProductsCharacteristics of Information Products

Structured DecisionsStructured DecisionsSemistructuredSemistructuredUnstructedUnstructed

Decision Decision StructureStructure

Decision Support in BusinessDecision Support in Business

Operational Control

Management Control

Strategic Planning

Structured Accounts payable

Responsibility accounting

Warehouse and factory

location

Semistructured Production scheduling

Budget preparation

Mergers and acquisitions

Unstructured Cash management

Personnel management

New products, R&D planning

Time horizonTime horizon

NOW

weeks

years

5-7

strategic

tactical

operational

Users' viewUsers' view

USER USES

Clerical personnel Handling transactions, process data and answer inquiries

First-level managers

Obtaining operations data. Assistance with planning, scheduling, identifying out-of-control situations and making decisions

Staff specialistsInformation for analysis. Assistance with analysis, planning and reporting.

Management

Regular reports. Special retrieval requests. Special analysis and reports. Assistance in indentifying problems and opportunities. Assistance in decision-making analysis.

Data base management systemData base management system

DATA BASE

Federative view

MARKETING

PRODUCTION

FINANCE

PERSONNEL

MANAGEMENT

Integrative viewIntegrative view

Functional areas

Decision levels

Data base management system

strategic planning

management control

operational control

transaction processing

DATA BASE

Data base management system

Copyright 1995 Prentice Hall CIS 3

Typical Business System

InventoryManagement

Shipping/Receiving

Rules/Standards

PurchasingMaterials

Accounting

CreditDepartment

Sent forShipping

Order

FinishedGoods

Stockroom

SalesOrders

Order Desk

Invoice

Orders forMaterials

ShippingTraffic Merchandise

Ordered

ManufacturingGroup

Requisition

Types of Information SystemsTypes of Information Systems

TPS transaction processing systems

MIS management reporting EIS executive information

systemsDSS decision support systems

GDSS group decision support systems

AI/ES expert systems

Components of a Marketing Information SystemComponents of a Marketing Information System

Sales Prospects and Rivals’ News

Rivals’ News

Company News

SERVER

CLIENTSINTERNAL

DATABASES

FirewallVia the InternetThe Server Filters

Information Based on Users’ Custom

Requirements

Rivals’ News and Company News

Sales Prospects and Company

News

Sales Prospects

News Wires

CustomerData

SalesData

InventoryData

Management Reporting AlternativesManagement Reporting AlternativesManagement Information SystemsManagement Information Systems

Decision typeDecision type

DSSTPS EIS

STRUCTURED SEMI-STRUCTURED UNSTRUCTURED

Intelligenceknowledge no knowledge no knowledge

Design of all of one or two of any of the

Choice steps steps steps

DSS generatorsDSS generatorsSpecific DSS

DSS tools

managermanagers, users

technical support intermediary

DSS Generator

USERS

DSS Builder

toolsmith

Anatomy of a DSSAnatomy of a DSS

users

data base model base

dialog,user interface

DSS generatorDBMS MBMS

DGMS

Dialog stylesDialog styles

Basic types

Q&A - Question and answer Command language Menu Input Form/Output Form Input-in-Context-of-Output

Pros and cons Mixed dialogs

Using Decision SupportUsing Decision SupportDecision Support SystemsDecision Support Systems

What-if AnalysisWhat-if Analysis Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis Goal-Seeking AnalysisGoal-Seeking Analysis Optimization AnalysisOptimization Analysis

DSS plus:DSS plus:– GroupwareGroupware

FacilitiesFacilities

GDSS - Group Decision Support Systems

LAN decision network

WAN decision network

Decision room Teleconferencing

close far

high

low

Decisionfrequency

PLACE TIME

SAME (synch)ANY (asynch)

SAME FACE-TO-FACE CONFERENCE (WEBTYCHO)

ANY VIDEO/TELECONFERENCING

VIRTUAL

place

Executive Information SystemsExecutive Information Systems present information for top managementsupports problem/opportunity discovery and assessment

is used for control andstrategic planning

are multimedia systems provide summary and detailed information, with the ability to "drill down" into the data

provide internal and external information provide different time and space information

Artificial IntelligenceArtificial IntelligenceOverview of AIOverview of AI

Artificial IntelligenceArtificial IntelligenceThe Domains of AIThe Domains of AI

CognitiveScience

ApplicationsRobotics

Applications

NaturalInterface

Applications

ArtificialIntelligence

•Expert Systems•Learning Systems•Fuzzy Logic•Genetic Algorithms•Neural Networks•Intelligent Agents

•Visual Perception•Tactility•Dexterity•Locomotion•Navigation

•Natural Languages•Speech Recognition•Multisensory Interfaces•Virtual Reality

Expert systemsExpert systems

...an intelligent computer program that uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems that require significant human expertise for their solution.

The knowledge of an expert systems consists of facts and heuristics. Facts constitute the body of informationpublicly available and agreed upon by experts in a field.Heuristics are mostly private rules of good judgementthat characterize expert-level decision making in a field.

E. Feigenbaum, Stanford University

Artificial IntelligenceArtificial IntelligenceExpert SystemsExpert Systems

UserWorkstation

ExpertAdvice

UserInterfacePrograms

InferenceEngine

Program

The Expert System

Expert System Software

Expert System Development

KnowledgeAcquisition

ProgramKnowledgeEngineering

Expert and/orKnowledge Engineer

Workstation

KnowledgeBase

Expert systems productsExpert systems products

Expert systems shellsExpert systems shells

Expert systems playersExpert systems players

knowledge userknowledge user knowledge engineerknowledge engineer domain expertdomain expert

Use and development of ES

Artificial IntelligenceArtificial IntelligenceVirtual Reality (VR)Virtual Reality (VR)• Computer Simulated Reality

• Multisensory Input/Output Devices

• Data Glove• Walker• Creating Telepresence With Sight, Sound, and Touch

Artificial IntelligenceArtificial IntelligenceVirtual Reality (VR)Virtual Reality (VR)

GISGIS

It is important to appreciate that GIS does It is important to appreciate that GIS does not always provide exact answers to not always provide exact answers to problems, but by identifying trends based problems, but by identifying trends based on geography, GIS can reveal patterns that on geography, GIS can reveal patterns that can help us make can help us make informed decisionsinformed decisions. A . A GIS can improve decision-making; it GIS can improve decision-making; it cannot make decisions for us.cannot make decisions for us.

GIS Example: Emergency servicesGIS Example: Emergency services

By using the GIS as a By using the GIS as a computerized map, controllers computerized map, controllers of police vehicles and of police vehicles and ambulances can instantly call ambulances can instantly call up a detailed map of the area up a detailed map of the area around an incident. By tracking around an incident. By tracking the vehicles in real time and the vehicles in real time and using route-finding GIS using route-finding GIS functions, the controller can functions, the controller can identify the best vehicle to identify the best vehicle to attend and give directions for attend and give directions for the fastest way to the incident. the fastest way to the incident. They can even store historical They can even store historical information and look for information and look for incident patterns and black incident patterns and black spots.spots.

Shortcut to GIS_example.lnk

GIS Example: Supermarket GIS Example: Supermarket locationslocations

Supermarket chains use GIS to help Supermarket chains use GIS to help site new stores and to plan their site new stores and to plan their distribution networks. By distribution networks. By comparing how many people live comparing how many people live within 15-minutes drive time of a within 15-minutes drive time of a particular location with the number particular location with the number of supermarkets already trading in of supermarkets already trading in that area, the GIS can identify that area, the GIS can identify suitable locations with an suitable locations with an optimized catchment area. optimized catchment area. Supermarket chains also use socio-Supermarket chains also use socio-economic data to create profiles of economic data to create profiles of the people in their catchment areas the people in their catchment areas to help them understand which to help them understand which other parts of the country are likely other parts of the country are likely to be successful growth areas.to be successful growth areas.

Additional ReadingsAdditional Readings

SDSSSDSS Virtual TeamsVirtual Teams CommericalCommerical GDSS GDSS An Expert systems ApplicationAn Expert systems Application   DSS..ApplicationDSS..Application   GIS Applications  GIS Applications  Neural NetworksNeural Networks Negotaiation System Example  Negotaiation System Example  Knowledge management: big challenges, big rewardsKnowledge management: big challenges, big rewards New Directions in GDSS     New Directions in GDSS      RMIS system provides Chubb customers with current data and RMIS system provides Chubb customers with current data and

extensive drill-down analysis extensive drill-down analysis