Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. 3Q16 Result Briefing · Super 13Cr special buckle oil well tube...
Transcript of Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. 3Q16 Result Briefing · Super 13Cr special buckle oil well tube...
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd.
3Q16 Result Briefing
October 2016
Disclaimer
The following presentation distributed herewith includes forward-looking statements.
All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that address activities, events or
developments that Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.,Ltd.(Baosteel) expects or anticipates will or
may occur in the future are forward-looking statements.
Baosteel’s actual results or developments may differ materially from those indicated
by these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors and uncertainties,
including but not limited to price fluctuations, actual demand, exchange rate
fluctuations, competition and other risks and factors beyond our control.
1 3Q Results
2 Industry Dynamics
Content
Company data Unit 3Q2015 3Q2016 YoY
Sales VolumeMillion
tons 540 542 ↑0.4%
Operating Incomebillion RMB 415.1 555.0 ↑33.7%
Operating Marginbillion RMB 29.0 53.9 ↑85.9%
Gross Margin % 7.0 9.7 ↑2.7ppts
Pre-tax Profitbillion RMB -14.5 30.9
Turn
profitable
EPSRMB/share -0.05 0.13
Turn
profitable
BVPSRMB/share 6.92 7.16 ↑3.5%
Cash Conversion CycleRMB/share 24.6 13.8 ↓43.9%
3Q results increased steadily
Operation Overview
million tons 3Q2016 YoY QoQ
Crude Steel Output 693 ↑ 25.5% ↑ 2.8%
552
674 693
0
300
600
3Q2015 2Q2016 3Q2016
540
623
542
65 98 91
-
300
600
3Q2015 2Q2016 3Q2016
million tons 3Q2016 YoY QoQ
Sales of Finished Products 542 ↑ 0.4% ↓13.0%
including:export 91 ↑ 40.0% ↓7.1%
Output & Sales
billion RMB 3Q2016 YoY QoQ
Operating Income 554 ↑ 33.8% ↑ 29.7%
Operating Cost 500 ↑ 29.9% ↑ 38.1%
414 427
554
385 362
500
0
200
400
600
3Q2015 2Q2016 3Q2016
Operating Income
Operating Income & Cost
Billion RMB 3Q2016 YoYGross
MarginYoY
Steel Making 255 ↑7.5% 15.9% ↑9.8ppts
Distribution 474 ↑36.4% 2.5% ↓0.7ppts
E-commerce 140 ↑183.3% 0.1% ↑0.17 ppts
237
347
49
255
474
140
0
200
400
600
Steel Making Distribution E-commerce
3Q2015 3Q2016
Billion RMB 3Q2016 YoYGross
MarginYoY
IT 8.5 ↓24.8% 29.6% ↑5.1 ppts
Chemicals 18 ↓7.2% 6.7% ↑2.1 ppts
Finance 1.3 ↓17.7% 53.1% ↑5.6 ppts
11.2
20
1.6
8.5
18
1.3 0
10
20
30
40
50
IT Chemicals Finance
3Q2015 3Q2016
Segment Report
The company cut cost of 1.1bn RMB in 3Q, a total of 5 bn up-to-date, overfulfilled the annual target.
Cost cutting continued
2016 Target 2016 Result
4 bn
5 bn
1.8 bn
2 bn
1.1 bn
Q4
Unit: RMB
Global debut of two high-end oriented silicon steel
Varieties Market Exploration
First high-end coated iron unit put into operation in China
Super 13Cr special buckle oil well tube entered the Middle East market
No 2 BF ramping up smoothly
Shift from construction to operation speeds up
Key indicators of some units better than benchmarks
Zhanjiang Project
1550 pickling line
hot load test
March 15
March 30
2030 hot dip galvanizing line
hot load test
3# converter system
hot load test
May 5
Heavy plate unit
hot load test
May 28
2# blast furnace of Zhanjiang
project ignition
July 15
Products development and certification go as planned
Company Data UnitJan.-Sep.
2015Jan.-Sep.
2016YoY
Sales VolumeMillion
tons 1610 1727 ↑7.3%
Operating Incomebillion RMB 1224.5 1336.1 ↑9.1%
Operating Marginbillion RMB 122.0 163.5 ↑34.0%
Gross Margin % 10.0 12.2 ↑2.2ppts
Pre-tax Profit billion RMB 29.5 81.1 ↑174.6%
EPSRMB/share 0.14 0.34 ↑142.9%
BVPSRMB/share 6.85 7.16 ↑4.5%
Cash Conversion CycleRMB/share 24.6 13.8 ↓43.9%
Operation Overview of Jan.-Sep. 2016
*Overall cost cut contribution
*Effective market exploration and varieties optimization
*Substantial reduction in foreign exchange losses YoY
Annual net profit expected to increase by 600%-800%
0.42
0.60
0.35 0.35
0.06
0.43
0.55
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
EPS
↑ 600%
↑ 800%
Unit: Yuan
Estimated net profit:7.09-9.12 billion Yuan
2
1 3Q Results
Industry Dynamics
Content
9.5%
7.7% 7.7%7.4%
6.9%6.7%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP
5.4%
2.6% 2.6%
2.0%
1.4%1.7%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP CPI
• GDP was up steadily to 6.7% in Q3.
• GDP growth targets at 6.7% in 2016,
supply side reform is still the top priority.
• CPI growth was up to 1.7% in Q3.
• CPI growth targets at 1.9% in 2016. Prudent
monetary policy is expected to continue.
3Q2016 3Q2016
Economy outlook
Data source:Wind
Crude steel output and Apparent consumption
Unit: million tons Jan-Sep 2016 YoY
Crude steel output 604 ↑ 0.4%
Net export 80 ↑ 2.58%
Apparent consumption 524 ↑ 0.1%
• Crude steel output was 603mn tons in 3Q,up
0.4% YoY. Export increased slightly. Apparent
consumption increased by 0.1% YoY.
• Industry FAI growth rate increased significantly.
816 823 804
604 765 739
698
524
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016
Crude steel output Apparent consumption
Unit: million tons
411.8
505.5 506 478.9425.7
309.7
14.60%
-2.04% -2.06%-5.90%
-11%
-0.40%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
200
400
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investment Growth rate Unit: billion Yuan
Jan-Sep 2016Jan-Sep 2016
Steel industry outlook
Steel industry FAI
Data source:National Bureau of Statistics, Steelhome, Wind
• Steel social inventory declined gradually. Steel mill inventory reached two-year lows.
Unit:ten thousand tons
941
529412
1206
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2014年9月 2015年3月 2015年9月 2016年3月 2016年9月2014 2015 20160
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2014年1月 2014年7月 2015年1月 2015年7月 2016年1月 2016年7月
Total inventory Long products Flat products
2014 2015 2016
Data source:Wind
Steel inventory
Social inventory Key steel mill inventory
Unit:ten thousand tons
CSPI Prices
• The whole steel market was active in 3Q. Steel price rebounded QoQ.
75.56
3700
3200
2510
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2014年9月 2015年3月 2015年9月 2016年3月 2016年9月2014 2015 2016
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2014年9月 2015年3月 2015年9月 2016年3月 2016年9月
价格:热轧板卷:3.0mm:上海 价格:冷轧板卷:1.0mm:上海
价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海
2014 2015 2016
Data source:Wind
Steel market
Unit: RMB/ton
FAI
20.6%19.6%
15.7%
• Total FAI was 42.7 trillion RMB in the first three quarters, up 8.2% YoY. Growth was up steadily.
36.543.6
50.255.2
42.7
20.6% 19.6%
15.7%
10.0%8.2%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
0
20
40
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investment Growth rate
Infrastructure FAI
7.79.4
11.2
13.1
8.3
13.7%
21.2%20.3%
17.3%19.4%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investment Growth rate
• Infrastructure FAI was 8.3 trillion RMB, up 19.4% YoY. Growth was steady and relatively rapid.
Jan-Sep 2016 Jan-Sep 2016
Data source:Wind
Infrastructure
Unit: trillion RMBUnit: trillion RMB
Real estate FAI
20.6%19.6%
15.7%
• Real estate FAI was 7.5 trillion RMB in the first three quarters, up 5.8% YoY. Growth rate increased significantly.
New start and Sales growth
7.28.6
9.5 9.6
7.516.2%
19.8%
10.5%
1.0%
5.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
5
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investment Growth rate Unit: trillion RMB
• In the first three quarters, new construction was up 6.8% YoY. Sales was up 26.9% YoY, down slightly compared with 1H.
-7.3%
13.5%
-10.7%-14.0%
6.80%1.8%
17.3%
-7.6%
6.5%
26.9%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
New start Sales growth
Jan-Sep 2016 Jan-Sep 2016
Data source:Wind
Real estate
Output Sales
• Output and sales were up 13.3% and 13.2% YoY respectively in the first three quarters.
• Passenger car sales was up 14.8% YoY, outperforming commercial car(up 4.0% YoY).
19.2722.12
23.72 24.5
19.42
4.6%
14.8%
7.3%
3.3%
13.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
19.3121.98
23.49 24.6
19.36
4.3%
14.0%
6.9%
4.7%
13.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Jan-Sep 2016 Jan-Sep 2016
Auto
Unit: million units Unit: million units
Data source:CAAM
Washing machine Refrigerator
67.4272.02 71.14 72.75
48.9
1.4%
8.2%
-3.3%
0.7%
6.0%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Output Growth rate
84.2793.41
87.96 89.93
62.31
-3.1%
10.6%
-1.0%-1.9%
-2.9%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Output Growth rate
Air conditioner
• In the first eight months, washing machine output grew fast, refrigerator output decreased slightly, while air conditioner output decreased YoY.
132.81143.33 144.63
156.5
109.48
4.9%
11.6%11.5%
0.0%-2.4%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Output Growth rate
Jan-Aug2016 Jan-Aug2016 Jan-Aug2016
Data source:Wind
Home appliances
Machinery value added growth
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
General Equipment Special Equipment
Electrical Equipment Transportation Equipment
2013 2014 2015 2016
60.21
45.34 39.05 41.84
24.93 20.41
69.84
59.95
31.26
18.52
106.95 131.00
148.90
123.04
109.30
0
50
100
150
0
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Completion New Orders Carrying Orders(right)
Ship building
• New ship building orders increased, machinery experienced moderate growth, while main economic indicators remained downward trend.
Jan-Sep 2016
Data source:Wind
Ship building & machinery
Unit: million tons
Platts(62% Fe) Port inventory
• Iron ore price remained low. Q3 Platts(60% Fe) increased 5.3% QoQ.
59.15
10568
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014年10月 2015年4月 2015年10月 2016年4月 2016年10月2014 2015 20166000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
2014年10月 2015年4月 2015年10月 2016年4月 2016年10月2014 2015 2016
Data source:Wind
Raw Material
Unit: USD/ ton Unit: ten thousand tons
Coking coal(from Australia) First-grade metallurgical coke
• Coking coal price increased sharply in Q3, creating a two-year high.
1460
1765
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
2014年10月 2015年4月 2015年10月 2016年4月 2016年10月2014 2015 2016500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2014年10月 2015年4月 2015年10月 2016年4月 2016年10月2014 2015 2016
Data source:Wind
Raw Material
Unit: RMB/ton Unit: RMB/ton
Sheet price, especially CRC price will
remain at relatively high level.
Sheet demand stronger that rebar
Outlook for 4Q2016
High capacity utilization for
major players
Continuously rising cost
Strict de-capacity at year-end