Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global...

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1 Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance and Chief Financial Officer

Transcript of Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global...

Page 1: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

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Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference

November 9, 2016

Marta R. Stewart

Executive Vice President Finance

and Chief Financial Officer

Page 2: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of

the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. In some cases, forward-looking statements may be

identified by the use of words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “plan,” “consider,” “project,” and similar

references to the future. Forward-looking statements are made as of the date they were first issued and reflect the

good-faith evaluation of Norfolk Southern Corporation’s (NYSE: NSC) (“Norfolk Southern” or the “Company”)

management of information currently available. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and

uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Company’s control. These and other important factors, including those

discussed under “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, as well as the

Company’s other public filings with the SEC, may cause our actual results, performance or achievement to differ

materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not,

and should not be relied upon as, a guarantee of future performance or results, nor will they necessarily prove to be

accurate indications of the times at or by which any such performance or results will be achieved. As a result, actual

outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. We undertake no

obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of

certain events or otherwise, unless otherwise required by applicable securities law.

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Page 3: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Business Update

2016 Overview

2016 Outlook

Strategic Plan to Reduce Costs and Accelerate Growth

Capital Allocation Priorities

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Page 4: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Financial ResultsNine Months 2016 vs. 2015 ($ millions, except EPS)

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Strong cost controls resulted in a record 68.7% operating ratio

2016 2015 * $ %

Railway operating revenues $ 7,398 $ 7,993 $ (595) (7%)

Railway operating expenses $ 5,085 $ 5,751 $ 666 12%

Income from railway operations $ 2,313 $ 2,242 $ 71 3%

Railway operating ratio (%) 68.7 72.0 3.3 5%

Net income $ 1,252 $ 1,195 $ 57 5%

Earnings per share $ 4.21 $ 3.90 $ 0.31 8%

(Unfavorable)

Favorable

* 2015 included restructuring costs of $44 million, which increased the railway operating ratio by 60 basis points.

Page 5: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Railway Operating RevenuesNine Months 2016 vs. 2015

1. Please see reconciliation to GAAP posted on our website.

Revenue RPU RPU Less Fuel (1) Volume

$7.4 Billion $1,365 $1,334 5.4 Million units

down (7%) down (3%) flat down (5%)

Revenue $ in million & Y-o-Y Percent Change

Merchandise

$4,678

(2%)

Coal

$1,085

(22%)

Intermodal

$1,635

(11%)

$7,993

$7,398

($269)

($229)

($169)

($1)$73

YTD 2015 Coal ex.Fuel

Fuel TCS ex.Fuel

Merch ex.Fuel

IMex.TCSex. Fuel

YTD 2016

Revenue Change $ in millions (1)

Low commodity prices pressured revenue line

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Page 6: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Railway Operating Expenses Nine Months 2016 vs. 2015 ($ millions)

Streamlining operations to strengthen NS and drive productivity

$5,751

$236

$163

$139

$128

$5,085

Depreciation

$ ---

Materials &

Other

Compensation

& Benefits2015 Purchased

Svcs & Rents

2016

6

Fuel

Page 7: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

3Q15 Consolidation of regional headquarters

3Q15 Acquisition of Delaware & Hudson South line

4Q15 Restructuring of Triple Crown operations

1Q15,

1Q-2Q16Reductions in capital spending

1Q16 Consolidation of operating divisions and regions

2Q16 Idling of Ashtabula Coal Terminal

2Q16 Idling of Knoxville, TN Yard operations

2Q16 Shortline of West VA Secondary

2Q16 Restructuring Pocahontas Land coal subsidiary

1Q-3Q16 Line rationalizations - concentrating flows & speed reductions

Efficiency Initiatives

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Page 8: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

20

22

24

26

28

Service Metrics – Nine MonthsVelocity Remains Near Record Levels

15

17

19

21

23

25 Speed (mph) Dwell (Hours)

Better ( ) Better ( )

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50%

60%

70%

80%

90%Composite

Better ( ) 2015 2016

• Service Composite 14%

• Train Speed 11%

• Dwell 9%

Page 9: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Source: Wells Fargo; IHS Markit; WardsAuto Forecast; EIA; EVA; Census Bureau; NYMEX

IndicatorDec 2015

2016 (F)1Q 2Q

3Q (Prelim)

4Q (F)Current

2016 (F)

GDP +2.7% +0.8% +1.4% +2.9% +1.5% +1.5%

Housing Starts (millions, annual rate) 1.23 1.15 1.16 1.18 1.15 1.16

N.A. Vehicle Production (millions, units) 18.2 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 18.2

Industrial Production +1.0% (1.6%) (1.0%) (0.8%) (0.4%) (1.0%)

Real Consumer Spending (annual rate) +3.1% +2.4% +2.7% +2.8% +2.8% +2.7%

Henry Hub Nat Gas Price ($/mmBtu) $2.88 $2.00 $2.14 $2.88 $2.83 $2.46

USD Exchange Rate With Major

Trading Partners+4.7% +4.3% (0.4%) (1.7%) (2.5%) (0.1%)

IndicatorDec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016

Utility Coal Stockpiles (days, in NS

Territory, data from 1 month prior)92.9 95.1 104.2 86.8 84.8

Inventories/Sales Ratio (total business,

adjusted, data from 2 months prior)1.39 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.39

Economic Backdrop

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Page 10: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

We

ek

ly V

olu

me

Week

2015

2016

Q2 Q3 Q4

10

2016 Weekly Volume

Volumes are ~ flat with last year in 4QTD

Q1

Page 11: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Coal Drivers

Source: EIA; Platts; SNL; NYMEX; EVA

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

1Q2014

2Q2014

3Q2014

4Q2014

1Q2015

2Q2015

3Q2015

4Q2015

1Q2016

2Q2016

3Q2016

4Q2016*

Export Prices

Queensland Coking Coal API 2* API 2 for 4Q projected from forward curve

Utility:

‒ Weather

‒ Natural gas prices

‒ Stockpiles

Export:

‒ Market prices

‒ Production availability

0

20

40

60

80

100

Days o

f B

urn

Utility - Total Stockpiles

11

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

Do

llars

per

MM

Btu

Natural Gas Prices - Henry Hub

Page 12: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Merchandise Drivers

Source: EIA; WardsAuto; Federal Reserve

Industrial production muted

Crude oil limited by low prices and

narrow WTI/Brent spread

Automotive tied to North American

vehicle production

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Jan

-13

Ma

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Do

llars

per

Barr

el

Brent and WTI Oil Prices

Brent WTI

15,801 16,501 17,423 17,955 18,207

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

North American Vehicle Production

+5.6%+3.1% +1.4%

+4.4%

98

100

102

104

106

Jan

-13

Ma

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Industrial Production(Index 2012 = 100)

Manufacturing

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Page 13: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Intermodal Drivers

Source: Census Bureau; BEA; Truckstop.com

Truck competition

Consumer demand

Retail inventory levels 1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Ju

l-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Ju

l-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Ju

l-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Inventory/Sales Ratio

Retail Total Business

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1Q2014

2Q2014

3Q2014

4Q2014

1Q2015

2Q2015

3Q2015

4Q2015

1Q2016

2Q2016

3Q2016

Consumer Spending (% Change vs. Preceding Period, Seasonally Adj)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Truckstop.com Market Demand Index

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

13

Page 14: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 44 (ended November 5, 2016)

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Total Units (000’s)0.2% Increase in Units 4QTD 2016 vs. 2015

12,795; 3%

3,010; 5%

1,676; 3%

589;1%

(2,414);(9%)

(6,467); (13%)

(7,776);(8%)

Paper

Chemicals

Coal

Intermodal

MetCon

Agriculture

Automotive

730.2 731.6

2015 2016

Lapping Triple Crown restructuring and inventory builds

Page 15: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

4Q16 Revenue Outlook

Volume Pricing

Fourth quarter year-over-year, flat to

moderate growth expected, despite

continued challenges

− Excess capacity in the trucking market

− Stockpiles and weather impact coal

volumes

− Crude oil and Automotive declines

− Stronger intermodal as we clear Triple

Crown comparison

− Metals market laps fourth quarter 2015

declines

Fourth quarter volumes stabilize, solid pricing leveraging value of service, mix headwinds continue

Focus on Pricing

− 2016 pricing remains strong

− Domestic truck rates lower

− Leveraging value of service product

Long-term view of markets and pricing

Volume and Resource Alignment

Flexibility to adapt to changing market

conditions and volume expectations

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Page 16: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

$163

$119 $113

$82

$49 $50

$67

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Revenue ($M)

Fuel Surcharge Revenue

4Q16 fuel surcharge decline to moderate relative to lower prior year comp

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Page 17: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

4Q16 Expense Outlook

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3Q16 Actualvs. 3Q15

4Q16 Outlookvs. 4Q15

Compensation and benefits:

Headcount ~ 2,400 ~ 2,200

Wage and H&W rates $26M ~ $26M

Incentive compensation $39M ~ $39M

Triple Crown – purchased services $37M ~ $20M

Fuel $40M Price and consumption driven

Depreciation $17M ~ $25M

Materials $15M ~ $15M

Improving efficiencies and reducing costs to drive shareholder value

Page 18: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Strategic Plan Enhancing Shareholder Value

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NS well positioned to achieve 2016 financial and operational targets

− Operating ratio below 70%

− Productivity savings of ~ $250 million

− Capital spending of ~ $1.9 billion

− On track for $800M in share repurchases

Dedicated team focus on delivering long-term shareholder value

− $650M of annual productivity savings by 2020

− Top line growth

− Operating ratio below 65% by 2020

− EPS double digit compound annual growth rate by 2020

− Returning capital to shareholders

Agile NS team reliably delivers shareholder value in the near- and long- term

Page 19: Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern · 2020-05-25 · Baird 2016 Global Industrial Conference November 9, 2016 Marta R. Stewart Executive Vice President Finance

Thank you

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NS well positioned to achieve 2016 financial and operational targets

− Operating ratio below 70%

− Productivity savings of about $250 million

− Capital spending of $1.9 billion

− On track for $800M in share repurchases

Dedicated team focus on delivering long-term shareholder value

− $650M of annual productivity savings by 2020

− Top line growth

− Operating ratio below 65% by 2020

− EPS double digit compound annual growth rate by 2020

− Returning capital to shareholders

Agile NS team reliably delivers shareholder value in near- and long- term