Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial...
Transcript of Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial...
Baird Industrial Conference
James A. SquiresExecutive Vice President Finance
and Chief Financial Officer
November 9, 2011
Norfolk Southern System
Norfolk Southern Update
Recent Results 3rd Qtr Financial Highlights
3rd Qtr Revenues
Nine Months Summary
Current Status 4th Qtr-to-date Volumes
4th Qtr-to-date Service Performance
Business Outlook Traffic Volumes
Service Performance
Corridors and Terminals
Shareholder Returns
Third Quarter Financial Highlights($ in millions, except per share)
3Q11 vs. 3Q10 Change
Revenues $433 18%
Income From Ops $192 26%
Net Income $109 24%
Earnings per Share $0.40 34%
Railway VolumeThird Quarter
8%
8%
7%
1%
-5%
-7%
-11%
Automotive
Intermodal
MetCon
Coal
Paper
Agriculture
Chemicals
1,522
1,753
1,810
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11
Units (000) Change in Units3Q11 vs. 3Q10
15%
3%
Revenue Per Unit Third Quarter
26%
21%
16%
16%
13%
10%
8%
Coal *
MetCon*
Agriculture *
Chemicals*
Paper*
Intermodal
Automotive*
$1,355$1,401
$1,596
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11
RPUChange in RPU3Q11 vs. 3Q10
3%
14%
* Record RPU
Total Railway RevenuesThird Quarter
29%
27%
19%
17%
7%
7%
4%
MetCon
Coal
Intermodal
Automotive
Agriculture
Paper
Chemicals
$2,063
$2,456
$2,889
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11
Revenue in $ Mill.Change in Revenue 3Q11 vs. 3Q10
19%
18%
Export volume of 61,844 carloads, up 11,688 or 23% Tightened global supply
Global steel production up 11%
Lamberts Point up 39%
Baltimore down (2%)
Export Carloads 1Q 2008 - 3Q 2011
Export Coal Market
8
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
1Q 2010
2Q 2010
3Q 2010
4Q 2010
1Q 2011
2Q 2011
3Q 2011
55,121 59,078 59,66345,873 40,995
22,238
45,10759,933 56,863 61,557
50,156 49,23470,851 75,786
61,844
Utility volume of 265,148 carloads, down (10,369) or (4%) Utility North down (5%), South down
(3%)
Competition from gas/lower electricity demand
50% of Northern utilities, and 36% of Southern utilities are below targeted inventory levels
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
3Q 2009
4Q 2009
1Q 2010
2Q 2010
3Q 2010
4Q 2010
1Q 2011
2Q 2011
3Q 2011
315,508 317,619 314,890 324,644294,169
267,045 254,070 237,117 245,240 257,349 275,517 275,243 276,685256,548 265,148
Utility Carloads 1Q 2008 - 3Q 2011
Utility Coal Market
9
Nine Months Financial SummaryChange vs. Prior Year ($ in millions, except per share)
Sep YTD
Revenues $1,251 18%
Income From Ops $379 19%
Net Income $342 31%
Earnings per Share $1.12 38%
Fuel Price ComparisonPrice per Barrel
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
NS Diesel
Brent
WTI
Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 44 (November 5, 2011)
15%
11%
9%
0%
-4%
-9%
-12%
Automotive
Intermodal
MetCon
Coal
Paper
Agriculture
Chemicals
624
686
718
2009 2010 2011
Units (000) Change in Units2011 vs. 2010
10%
5%
Source: AAR carloadings, which are reported weekly and may not equal NS’ reported volumes.
Fourth Quarter – Primary Volume Drivers
Increase in Units
Intermodal 32,916 Continued strong domestic demand
Metals and Construction 5,449 Increased steel production
Automotive 4,924 US production, VW plant
Train SpeedYear-to-Date through October 28, 2011
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
NS Train Speed (miles per hour) Better
Source: As reported publicly to the AAR
Terminal DwellYear-to-Date through October 28, 2011
Source: As reported publicly to the AAR
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
NS Terminal Dwell (hours) Better
Outlook – Business Portfolio
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Chemicals
Metals & Construction
Agriculture
Export Coal
Domestic Metallurgical Coal
Utility Coal
Automotive
Domestic & Premium Intermodal
International Intermodal
Paper
Improving volumes through project growth in crude oil and waste products, and long-term improved feedstock prices
Increased domestic steel production and growth in shipments for natural gas drilling
Growth in ethanol, offset by later harvest impact
Continued European, Asian and South American demand for met coal
Increased domestic steel production – low domestic met stockpiles
Sequential growth to replenish below target stockpiles –tempered by lower electrical demand & competition from gas
New business, increased North American auto production
Increasing demand and highway conversions
Favorable global trade
Challenged housing market, modest growth in paper
Chicago
Cincinnati
Columbus
Pritchard Roanoke
Norfolk
Detroit
Philadelphia
Ayer
Atlanta
Charlotte
Lynchburg
Corinth
Shreveport
Meridian
New Orleans
Memphis
NY/NJ
Bethlehem
NS Corridor Strategy
Greencastle
Mechanicville
Birmingham
Intermodal Terminal Expansion Update
Ground Breaking Date
Completion Date
Annual Volume Capability (Lifts)
Mechanicville, NY July 2010 Spring 2012 70,000
Memphis, TN January 2011 Fall 2012 200,000
Greencastle, PA June 2011 Fall 2012 85,000
Birmingham, AL June 2011 Fall 2012 100,000
Charlotte, NC Summer 2011 Summer 2013 200,000
2011 Capital Program($ millions)
$763
$489 $244
$212
$146
$96 $79
$194
RoadwayFreight CarsFacilities & TerminalsLocomotivesPTCTechnologyInfrastructureOther Projects
Total Projected Spending = $2.2 billion
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD 2011
$1,028 $992
$1,157
$561
$1,244 $1,331
* Free Cash Flow is defined as cash provided by operations less property additions.Please see reconciliation to GAAP on our website, www.nscorp.com.
Free Cash Flow Generation*($ millions)
Capital Structure as of September 30, 2011
Equity60%
Debt40%
Investment Grade Rating BBB+ (Standard & Poor’s)
Baa1 (Moody’s)
Recent Capital Markets Transactions May Debt Issuance
• 100-year bond
• $400 million at 6.00%
September Debt Exchange• Waterfall exchange
• $600 million - 30-year notes at 4.837%
• $159 million in cash
21
Debt Maturities as of September 30, 2011($ millions)
$51 $47
$447
$3
$500$550
$600$585
$314
$83
$367
$440
$350
$473
$133
$295
$596
$138
$273
$550
$404
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '25 '27 '29 '31 '35 '37 '41 '43 '97 2105 2111
Balanced Cash Flow Utilization2006 through Third Quarter 2011
Dividends (CGR 20%) Share Repurchases Capital Expenditures
$8.3 Billion* $8.3 Billion
$5.8 Billion
$2.5 Billion
* See reconciliation to GAAP of Total Shareholder Distributions posted on our website, www.nscorp.com.
Thank You