Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial...

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Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance and Chief Financial Officer November 9, 2011

Transcript of Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial...

Page 1: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Baird Industrial Conference

James A. SquiresExecutive Vice President Finance

and Chief Financial Officer

November 9, 2011

Page 2: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Norfolk Southern System

Page 3: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Norfolk Southern Update

Recent Results 3rd Qtr Financial Highlights

3rd Qtr Revenues

Nine Months Summary

Current Status 4th Qtr-to-date Volumes

4th Qtr-to-date Service Performance

Business Outlook Traffic Volumes

Service Performance

Corridors and Terminals

Shareholder Returns

Page 4: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Third Quarter Financial Highlights($ in millions, except per share)

3Q11 vs. 3Q10 Change

Revenues $433 18%

Income From Ops $192 26%

Net Income $109 24%

Earnings per Share $0.40 34%

Page 5: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Railway VolumeThird Quarter

8%

8%

7%

1%

-5%

-7%

-11%

Automotive

Intermodal

MetCon

Coal

Paper

Agriculture

Chemicals

1,522

1,753

1,810

3Q09 3Q10 3Q11

Units (000) Change in Units3Q11 vs. 3Q10

15%

3%

Page 6: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Revenue Per Unit Third Quarter

26%

21%

16%

16%

13%

10%

8%

Coal *

MetCon*

Agriculture *

Chemicals*

Paper*

Intermodal

Automotive*

$1,355$1,401

$1,596

3Q09 3Q10 3Q11

RPUChange in RPU3Q11 vs. 3Q10

3%

14%

* Record RPU

Page 7: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Total Railway RevenuesThird Quarter

29%

27%

19%

17%

7%

7%

4%

MetCon

Coal

Intermodal

Automotive

Agriculture

Paper

Chemicals

$2,063

$2,456

$2,889

3Q09 3Q10 3Q11

Revenue in $ Mill.Change in Revenue 3Q11 vs. 3Q10

19%

18%

Page 8: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Export volume of 61,844 carloads, up 11,688 or 23% Tightened global supply

Global steel production up 11%

Lamberts Point up 39%

Baltimore down (2%)

Export Carloads 1Q 2008 - 3Q 2011

Export Coal Market

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1Q 2008

2Q 2008

3Q 2008

4Q 2008

1Q 2009

2Q 2009

3Q 2009

4Q 2009

1Q 2010

2Q 2010

3Q 2010

4Q 2010

1Q 2011

2Q 2011

3Q 2011

55,121 59,078 59,66345,873 40,995

22,238

45,10759,933 56,863 61,557

50,156 49,23470,851 75,786

61,844

Page 9: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Utility volume of 265,148 carloads, down (10,369) or (4%) Utility North down (5%), South down

(3%)

Competition from gas/lower electricity demand

50% of Northern utilities, and 36% of Southern utilities are below targeted inventory levels

1Q 2008

2Q 2008

3Q 2008

4Q 2008

1Q 2009

2Q 2009

3Q 2009

4Q 2009

1Q 2010

2Q 2010

3Q 2010

4Q 2010

1Q 2011

2Q 2011

3Q 2011

315,508 317,619 314,890 324,644294,169

267,045 254,070 237,117 245,240 257,349 275,517 275,243 276,685256,548 265,148

Utility Carloads 1Q 2008 - 3Q 2011

Utility Coal Market

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Page 10: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Nine Months Financial SummaryChange vs. Prior Year ($ in millions, except per share)

Sep YTD

Revenues $1,251 18%

Income From Ops $379 19%

Net Income $342 31%

Earnings per Share $1.12 38%

Page 11: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Fuel Price ComparisonPrice per Barrel

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

$150

NS Diesel

Brent

WTI

Page 12: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Current Railway VolumeFourth Quarter through Week 44 (November 5, 2011)

15%

11%

9%

0%

-4%

-9%

-12%

Automotive

Intermodal

MetCon

Coal

Paper

Agriculture

Chemicals

624

686

718

2009 2010 2011

Units (000) Change in Units2011 vs. 2010

10%

5%

Source: AAR carloadings, which are reported weekly and may not equal NS’ reported volumes.

Page 13: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Fourth Quarter – Primary Volume Drivers

Increase in Units

Intermodal 32,916 Continued strong domestic demand

Metals and Construction 5,449 Increased steel production

Automotive 4,924 US production, VW plant

Page 14: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Train SpeedYear-to-Date through October 28, 2011

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

NS Train Speed (miles per hour) Better

Source: As reported publicly to the AAR

Page 15: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Terminal DwellYear-to-Date through October 28, 2011

Source: As reported publicly to the AAR

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

NS Terminal Dwell (hours) Better

Page 16: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Outlook – Business Portfolio

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Chemicals

Metals & Construction

Agriculture

Export Coal

Domestic Metallurgical Coal

Utility Coal

Automotive

Domestic & Premium Intermodal

International Intermodal

Paper

Improving volumes through project growth in crude oil and waste products, and long-term improved feedstock prices

Increased domestic steel production and growth in shipments for natural gas drilling

Growth in ethanol, offset by later harvest impact

Continued European, Asian and South American demand for met coal

Increased domestic steel production – low domestic met stockpiles

Sequential growth to replenish below target stockpiles –tempered by lower electrical demand & competition from gas

New business, increased North American auto production

Increasing demand and highway conversions

Favorable global trade

Challenged housing market, modest growth in paper

Page 17: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Chicago

Cincinnati

Columbus

Pritchard Roanoke

Norfolk

Detroit

Philadelphia

Ayer

Atlanta

Charlotte

Lynchburg

Corinth

Shreveport

Meridian

New Orleans

Memphis

NY/NJ

Bethlehem

NS Corridor Strategy

Greencastle

Mechanicville

Birmingham

Page 18: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Intermodal Terminal Expansion Update

Ground Breaking Date

Completion Date

Annual Volume Capability (Lifts)

Mechanicville, NY July 2010 Spring 2012 70,000

Memphis, TN January 2011 Fall 2012 200,000

Greencastle, PA June 2011 Fall 2012 85,000

Birmingham, AL June 2011 Fall 2012 100,000

Charlotte, NC Summer 2011 Summer 2013 200,000

Page 19: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

2011 Capital Program($ millions)

$763

$489 $244

$212

$146

$96 $79

$194

RoadwayFreight CarsFacilities & TerminalsLocomotivesPTCTechnologyInfrastructureOther Projects

Total Projected Spending = $2.2 billion

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Page 20: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD 2011

$1,028 $992

$1,157

$561

$1,244 $1,331

* Free Cash Flow is defined as cash provided by operations less property additions.Please see reconciliation to GAAP on our website, www.nscorp.com.

Free Cash Flow Generation*($ millions)

Page 21: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Capital Structure as of September 30, 2011

Equity60%

Debt40%

Investment Grade Rating BBB+ (Standard & Poor’s)

Baa1 (Moody’s)

Recent Capital Markets Transactions May Debt Issuance

• 100-year bond

• $400 million at 6.00%

September Debt Exchange• Waterfall exchange

• $600 million - 30-year notes at 4.837%

• $159 million in cash

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Page 22: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Debt Maturities as of September 30, 2011($ millions)

$51 $47

$447

$3

$500$550

$600$585

$314

$83

$367

$440

$350

$473

$133

$295

$596

$138

$273

$550

$404

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '25 '27 '29 '31 '35 '37 '41 '43 '97 2105 2111

Page 23: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Balanced Cash Flow Utilization2006 through Third Quarter 2011

Dividends (CGR 20%) Share Repurchases Capital Expenditures

$8.3 Billion* $8.3 Billion

$5.8 Billion

$2.5 Billion

* See reconciliation to GAAP of Total Shareholder Distributions posted on our website, www.nscorp.com.

Page 24: Baird Industrial Conference - Norfolk Southern Railway · 2020-05-16 · Baird Industrial Conference James A. Squires Executive Vice President Finance . and Chief Financial Officer.

Thank You