AUTOMOTIVE Industry dynamics - Markitcdn.ihs.com/www/pdf/20170308-Jackson_ed.pdf · AUTOMOTIVE Mike...

© 2017 IHS Markit© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Industry dynamicsThe need for strategic agility

AUTOMOTIVE

Mike Jackson, Senior Manager, North AmericaVehicle Production Forecasting +1-248-388-8912, [email protected]

8 March 2017 | Plymouth, Michigan, United States

© 2016 IHS Markit

ContentsPresentation Name / Month 2016

Vehicle sales and sourcing

Production outlook

Market dynamics

OEM reviews

Summary

© 2017 IHS Markit – All Rights Reserved

© 2016 IHS Markit 3

North American sales

Spring Automotive Conference – Detroit | March 2017

21.021.0 20.7

12.7

19.7


© 2017 IHS Markit

US sales

4

5.67.8 7.9

6.0

9.8 9.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Mill

ion

s

Imports US Sourced


1 Mexico2 Canada3 Japan4 S. Korea

5 Germany

6 UK7 Italy8 Spain9 Hungary10 Sweden

Top-10 import countries

20161 Mexico2 Canada3 Japan4 S. Korea

5 Germany

6 UK7 China8 Italy9 Hungary10 Turkey

2023

84%

85%


© 2017 IHS Markit

US sales

5

3.3 3.4 3.3

2.03.7 4.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck US Sourced


1 Fusion2 Corolla3 RAV4

4 Silverado

5 Civic6 Forester7 Equinox8 2500/3500

9 Sentra10 Soul

Top-10 import entries

20161 Fusion2 Equinox3 RAV4

4 Silverado

5 Forester

6 2500/3500

7 Pacifica8 Civic9 Compass10 Edge

2023

24%

21%


© 2017 IHS Markit

2023362

845

422502

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

UnitedStates

China Japan Germany

6

Global context: 2006–23


US sales: Nameplate counts

362 382

126 154

2016

29 33

207 195

Total

+28

-12

+4

+20

∆

2006 2016 2023

+573 +21+ 37% + 1%

51 28 48


NA export count

© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mill

ions

NA ProductionRecessionLinear (NA Production)

Industry production cycles

7



-26%-3.8M

-42%-6.4M

-19%-2.6M

-10%-1.7M

-48%-7.8M Stress

testing

-10%?

-20%?

-30%?

?

© 2016 IHS Markit



Production outlook

Market dynamics

OEM reviews

Summary


© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

42382017 2019 2021North American production

9

203 launch events

+9.2M+.8M +.7M

+10.1M

9


CarUtility

Truck

4531 27 20453831 42 27 20

161211 14 15 8241718 22 10 7592 6 2 5

15

.81

5.8

15

.31

5.1

12

.68

.6 11

.91

3.1 15

.41

6.2

17

.01

7.5

17

.81

7.6

17

.91

8.2

18

.71

8.7

18

.51

8.5

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Mill

ion

s


37%48%14%

© 2016 IHS Markit

Cars slip; SUVs soar

6.54.0

6.9 6.8

5.1

2.7

7.1 8.1

4.1

1.8

3.8 3.6

0369

12151821

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Mill

ion

s

Car Utilities Truck

-231K

-6%

+1.0M+14%

-74K

-1%



© 2016 IHS Markit

US production profile

11

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

NA Share % Car SUV Truck



0.9 0.9 0.8

6.3 5.6 5.5

4.44.2 4.5

0.4 0.7 1.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

2016 2018 2020 2022

Mill

ions

Other Asian 4 US 3 German 3

© 2016 IHS Markit

Canadian production profile

12

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

NA Share Car Utility Truck


© 2017 IHS Markit – All Rights Reserved 12

1.31.0 1.0

1.0

1.0 0.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2016 2018 2020 2022

Mill

ions

Asian 4 US 3

© 2016 IHS Markit

Mexican production profile

13

15%

18%

21%

24%

27%

30%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

NA Share Car Utility Truck



0.4 0.8 1.0

1.62.1 1.9

1.3

1.7 1.70.1

0.2 0.2

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

2016 2018 2020 2022

Mill

ions

Other A4 US3 G3

© 2016 IHS Markit

Portfolio comparison 2016

14

OEM Units Car SUV Truck

General Motors 3,647 32% 34% 34%Ford 3,068 25% 36% 39%FCA 2,516 13% 61% 27%

Toyota 2,125 47% 36% 17%Honda 1,957 47% 51% 2%

Renault‐Nissan 1,846 56% 28% 16%Hyundai 859 66% 34% 0%

BMW 411 0% 100% 0%Daimler 354 20% 69% 11%

Volkswagen 517 98% 2% 0%

Other 524 95% 5% 0%Unit volume ‐ 6,866 7,130 3,829 NA average 17,825 39% 40% 21%

$



© 2016 IHS Markit

Portfolio comparison 2023

15

OEM Units Car SUV Truck

General Motors 3,190 28% 40% 32%Ford 3,068 19% 41% 40%FCA 2,176 10% 61% 29%

Toyota 2,267 45% 39% 16%Honda 2,007 43% 55% 2%

Renault‐Nissan 1,711 52% 33% 14%Hyundai 1,150 66% 31% 3%

BMW 554 38% 62% 0%Daimler 377 19% 71% 11%

Volkswagen 850 56% 44% 0%

Other 1,171 69% 31% 0%Unit volume ‐ 6,792 8,133 3,597 NA average 18,522 37% 44% 19%

$



© 2016 IHS Markit



Production outlook

Market dynamics

OEM reviews

Summary


© 2016 IHS Markit

Car output2016‒23

17

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Small Mid Large

Car 2016 2019 2023

US3 2,279 1,710 1,689 -25% -1%

Asian4 3,511 3,464 3,539 -1% 2%

German3 579 624 758 8% 21%

Other 497 815 806 64% -1%

Small 3,238 3,328 3,395

3% 2%

Midsize3,228 2,991 3,162

-7% 6%Full size 400 295 235

-26% -20%

+157K

- 66K

-165K

‐ 74K






Peak outputCar output2016‒23

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2016 2019 2022

US 3 Asian 4 German 3 Other

2018 Camry• Retail focus• Expands consideration• Caters to unique personas

© 2016 IHS Markit

SUV output2016‒23

19

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Small Midsize Fullsize

SUV 2016 2019 2023

US3 3,848 3,776 3,881 -2% 3%

Asian4 2,590 2,700 2,904 4% 8%

German3 665 995 982 50% -1%

Other 27 99 365 263% 270%

Small 1,947 2,322 2,586

19% 11%Midsize 2,721 2,999 3,381

10% 13%Full size 2,462 2,248 2,166

-9% -4%

+1.0M

+639K

+660K

-296K

SUV = SUV/CUV/MPV



© 2016 IHS Markit© 2015 IHS

North America: Luxury output Regional distribution

CAGR = 39.0%2023: 0.6M

CAGR = -1.7%2023: 0.9M

CAGR = 3.2%2023: 0.6M

CAGR = 27.4%2023: 0.5M

2.5M2016–23+927K



0.5 0.6

1.0 0.9

0.5

0.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2016 2019 2022

Mill

ions

Mexico US-West US-South Great Lakes

© 2016 IHS Markit© 2015 IHS

North America: Luxury output

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2016 2019 2022M

illio

ns

SUVs Non SUVSUV (%) SUV Export Share (%)

SUVs drive robust category growth





0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2016 2019 2022


SUV output2016‒23

Peak output

© 2016 IHS Markit

Truck output2016‒23

23

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Van Midsize Pickup Fullsize Pickup

Truck 2016 2019 2023

US3 3,105 3,263 2,864 5% -12%

Asian4 686 687 693 0% 1%

German3 38 38 40 1% 4%

Other - - -- -

Van 453 396 389

-13% -2%Midsize pickup 633 764 754

21% -1%

Full-size pickup 2,742 2,829 2,455

3% -13%

‐232K

- 65K+121K

-288K

Truck = pickup, van (LCV)





50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2017 2021


Truck output2016‒23


Peak output

© 2016 IHS Markit




Production outlook

Market dynamics

OEM reviews

Summary

© 2016 IHS Markit

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

General Motors (GM)

26

2016 2019 2023

GM 3,647 3,522 3,190 -3% -9%

Buick 156 82 87

-48% 6%Cadillac 198 253 225

28% -11%Chevrolet 2,600 2,485 2,203

-4% -11%GMC 694 657 635

-5% -3%

Car 1,176 858 878 -27% 2%

SUV 1,236 1,429 1,289 16% -10%

Truck 1,236 1,234 1,023

0% -17%

+49 9 11 7 11 52017 2019 2021



6

© 2016 IHS Markit

Ford

27

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

FMC 3,068 2,918 3,068

-5% 5%

Ford 2,902 2,740 2,895

-6% 6%

Lincoln 166 179 173

8% -3%

Car 780 638 584

-18% -9%SUV 1,089 1,007 1,264

-8% 26%Truck 1,199 1,273 1,220

6% -4%

2 2 6 7 22017 2019 2021

+23



4

© 2016 IHS Markit

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA)

28

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

FCA 2,516 2,309 2,176 -8% -6%

Chrysler 234 266 354 14% 33%

Dodge 586 309 208 -47% -33%

Jeep 1,013 1,027 1,036 1% 1%

Ram 671 707 578 5% -18%

Car 323 214 228 -34% 6%

SUV 1,523 1,340 1,328 -12% -1%

Truck 671 755 620 13% -18%

+183 3 2 6 3

2017 2019 2021



1

© 2016 IHS Markit

Toyota

29

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

TMC 2,125 2,150 2,267

1% 5%

Lexus 157 129 145

-18% 13%

Toyota 1,967 2,021 2,122

3% 5%

Car 994 865 1,016

-13% 18%SUV 772 879 880

14% 0%Truck 359 407 371

13% -9%

20172 3 6 1

20193

2021+17



2

© 2016 IHS Markit

Honda

30

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

HMC 1,957 1,928 2,007

-1% 4%

Acura 191 162 184

-15% 13%

Honda 1,766 1,765 1,824

0% 3%

Car 916 858 868

-6% 1%

SUV 1,006 1,031 1,099

2% 7%

Truck 35 39 40

12% 3%

+23 4 4 1 7 52017 2019 2021



2

© 2016 IHS Markit

Renault-Nissan

31

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

Renault-Nissan 1,846 1,676 1,711

-9% 2%

Infiniti 53 98 126

85% 29%

Nissan 1,792 1,577 1,583

-12% 0%

Car 1,038 953 898

-8% -6%

SUV 516 518 569

1% 10%

Truck 292 205 244

-30% 19%

+21 20176 3 5 2

20193

2021



2

© 2016 IHS Markit

Hyundai

32

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

HMC 859 1,097 1,150

28% 5%Hyundai 484 583 636

20% 9%Kia 375 514 514

37% 0%

Car 563 789 756

40% -4%

SUV 296 272 356

-8% 31%

Truck - 36 38

- 5%

+13 20172 3 3 3

20191

2021



1

© 2016 IHS Markit

Volkswagen (VW)

33

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

VW 517 820 850 58% 4%

Audi 10 141 175 1298% 25%

VW 507 679 674

34% -1%

Car 507 464 478

-9% 3%

SUV 10 356 371

3401% 4%Truck 0 0 0

- -

+7 20171 1 2 2

20191

2021



0

© 2016 IHS Markit

BMW

34

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

BMW 411 405 554

-2% 37%

Car - 24 210

- 757%

SUV 411 380 344

-7% -10%Truck 0 0 0

- -

+6 20171 3 2 -

20192

2021



0

© 2016 IHS Markit

Daimler

35

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

2016 2019 2023

Daimler 354 433 377

22% -13%

Car 72 136 70

88% -49%

SUV 244 258 267

6% 3%

Truck 38 38 40

1% 4%

+7 2017- 2 5 -

2019-

2021



0


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Mill

ion

s

Car SUV Truck

Other manufacturers2016 2019 2023

Geely - 51 134

- 265%

Subaru 291 420 409

- 44% -3%

Mazda 149 165 171

- 11% 4%

Tesla 84 267 386

- 218% 45%

Car 497 803 789

- 62% -2%SUV 27 99 311

263% 215%Truck 0 0 0

- -

20171 1 6 2

20191

2021+7



4


• Robust demand, yet changing swiftly

• Cycle check—segment drivers

• Winning retail strategy

• SUV growth—opportunity and threat?

• Truck—maximize and prepare

• Luxury—evolving

• Employ stress testing

37

Summary



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AUTOMOTIVE Industry dynamics - Markitcdn.ihs.com/www/pdf/20170308-Jackson_ed.pdf · AUTOMOTIVE Mike...

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