AUTOMOTIVE Transportation evolvingcdn.ihs.com › www › pdf › 20170308-Carlson_ed.pdf ·...

© 2017 IHS Markit© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Transportation evolvingAutonomy and mobility as a service

AUTOMOTIVE

Jeremy Carlson, Principal Analyst & Manager+1 310 524 4065 [email protected]

8 March 2017 | Plymouth, Michigan

© 2017 IHS Markit

ADAS and autonomy

Presentation Name / Month 2016

2

© 2017 IHS Markit

ADAS continues to advance at a rapid pace

3

2017 Spring automotive conference | 8 March 2017

Lexus LS

Mercedes-Benz E-Class

Audi A8

Tesla Model S/X

BMW 7 Series

Intuitive pedestrian detection with active steering

Evasive steering assist andactive lane change assist

Piloted driving supported by laser scanner

Autopilot 2.0 hardware suite

Remote control parking

NVIDIA AI & computing Tesla | Mercedes 2017 | Audi 2020ZF, Bosch manufacture Drive PX2

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Language defined: Real-world examples of SAE levelsAutonomous = level 4 and Level 5

4

Based on Society of Automotive Engineers levels of automation (SAE J3016)

No automationL0

Driver assistanceL1

High automationFull autonomy | Self-driving carL4

Partial automationL2

Conditional automationL3

Full automationFull autonomy | Driverless carL5

Collision warningLane departure warningBlind spot information

Adaptive cruise controlLane keep assistAutonomous parking

AutopilotTraffic jam assist

Advanced autopilotsDrivers intermittently reengage

Fully autonomous autopilotsDrivers disengage in more situations

Fully autonomous driverless fleetsMobility service business model

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


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Advanced driver assist systems growing rapidly

5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

AutopilotSide and rear mirror camera

Lane departure warningCollision warning and avoidance

Driver monitoringSurround view

Adaptive cruise controlBlind spot detection

Autonomous park assistPark assist

ADAS unit compound annual growth, 2017–22

© 2017 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

Overall ADAS market 17.3%excluding park assist 25.8%


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Automated driving forecast summary shows slow transition

6

North America light vehicle production by SAE level 0–2

© 2017 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

0

4

8

12

16

20

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Mill

ions

L0 L1 L2


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New capabilities are needed to enable autonomyAutomakers and suppliers gaining expertise via acquisition, partnership, internal development

Sensing

Computing

User experience

Driver software

Cloud connectivity

Maps Artificial intelligence

Auto expertise Tech expertise

Service business model


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How will the transportation industry obtain that expertise?

8


Investment frequency in auto tech

in 2016 increased to 87 deals,

up 30% over 2015

Investment funding in auto tech

in 2016 increased to USD1,049 million,

up 91% over 2015

Source: CB Insights, January 2017

Auto tech investment activity related to:Autonomous driving software Connected vehicle and data

Automotive cybersecurity V2V communication

Driver safety tools Fleet telematics

© 2017 IHS Markit

Top-10 auto tech deals in 2016

Company Amount DescriptionZoox USD200M Autonomous EV mobility-as-a-service in new vehicle types

Metromile USD103M Pay-per-mile insurance

Quanergy USD90M Lidar supplier

Kymeta USD62M Satellite communications antennae using metamaterials

Zoox USD50M Autonomous EV mobility-as-a-service in new vehicle types

Metromile USD50M Pay-per-mile insurance

Pearl USD50M Aftermarket ADAS building to autonomous

Navya USD33M Autonomous ground shuttles in Paris, Lyon, Las Vegas

Autotalks USD25M Fabless semiconductor focusing on V2X

Veniam USD22M Connecting vehicles to expand wireless networks

9


Source: CB Insights, January 2017

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Transportation and mobility attracts big money and names

10


Honda part of Grab $750M

funding round

Argo AI receives $1B

from Ford

Volvo Cars plans IPO with $532M funding

TomTom acquires

Autonomos

Gett follows VW’s $300M with $100M

Ola plans $600M funding

round

BMW i Ventures increases fund

size 5X

Peloton wins $5M DOE grant

LeEco secures $600M loan

Intel Capital to invest $250M

over two years

Zoox hits $1.55B

valuation

Nauto raises $9M

© 2017 IHS Markit

Self-driving: How to get started?

Key information CommentRide hailing State-sponsored pilots

Private R&D and testing Singapore (Delphi, Nutonomy) Pittsburgh (Uber, Delphi)

Special routes Simple and fixed city trips Campus fixed trips Airport shuttle (two-year test) Between train stations

Las Vegas, January 2017 (Navya) Santa Clara University (Auro) New Zealand (Navya) Paris (EasyMile)

Self-driving only zones Small city section at first Urban mega-centers

Campus, military base, airport China, likely as low emission zones

Low-speed driving Urban or closed communities To limit and avoid crashes

Route- or lane-specific Commuter routes HOV lane for self-driving

Replace current ride-share routes Seattle-Vancouver proposal


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Mobility

Presentation Name / Month 2016

12

© 2017 IHS Markit 13


What is mobility?

The ability to move;

the capacity for movement

The ability to move in our new world of technology and choice;

the capacity for efficient movement in new connected and customized transportation ecosystems

What is new mobility?

Personal mobility is evolving

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Defining new mobility: Car sharing

Return to base

• Start and destination fixed, same station

Major players:• Zipcar, Hertz on Demand;

Cambio; Autolib; EVCard/Net; Zoomcar; Orix;Park24

Peer to peer

• Consumers lend their private car (via agency or internet platform)

Major players:• Turo; WhipCar; Getaround;

Drivy; Ridengine; PPZuche; ATzuche

Return to base

• Start and destination flexible, defined by user

Major players:• Maven; car2go; ReachNow;

Communauto; LeEco-Yidao

A AB

Base AB


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Defining new mobility: Ride hailing and sharing

Ride hailing• Online platform provider

• Drivers providing own cars

• Riders booking cars or trips

• Payment via platform provider

• Mainly short journeys

• City-focused

Major players

• Uber; Lyft; Didi; Ola; Grab; Mytaxi/Hailo

Ride sharing• Online marketplace

• Owner offers “seats” to destination

• Riders use marketplace to select destination

• Contribution to driver expense (e.g., fuel, toll)

• Mainly long journeys

• Intercity focus

Major Players

BlaBlaCar; Gocarshare; CoYatri; RidingO

15

Ride Sharing

Ride Hailing


© 2017 IHS Markit 16


Poll question:Have you used ride hailing or car sharing recently?

To take the poll:

Open the conference app Select this session from the agenda Scroll to bottom for the poll

Yes

No

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Autonomous capability will blur the lines between today’s mobility business models and use cases

17

Taxi

Owner/ driver

Taxi

Owner/ driver

Autonomous on-demand

mobility service

Owner/ driver

Past Present Future

For-hire

RentalRental

For-HireRide hailing

Car sharing


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In only five years, ride hailing reaches market cap valuations of incumbent automakers

19

020406080

100120140160180200

Title

Source: NYSE/Nasdaq, Bloomberg, TechCrunchNotes: Uber Technologies BlaBla, Grab, Lyft, Ola, and Didi Chuxing are estimated market valuations

© 2017 IHS Markit

Bill

ion

USD

TitleMarket cap and estimated valuation comparison of automakers and mobility entrants

Automaker Ride hailer Car sharing Ride sharing


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Ride-hailing leaders around the world

20


USD5.5–6.0Bvaluation

294 citiesUS only

3M MAUas of July 2016

13.9M trips in July 2016

+12% tripsover June 2016

USD68.0Bvaluation

542 citiesworldwide

40M MAUas of October 16

62M trips in July 2016

+15% tripsover June 2016

USD33.8Bvaluation

400 citiesin China

40M MAUas of October 2016

600M trips monthly average

2016

+100% trips

over 7 months

USD5.0Bvaluation

102 citiesin India

40M usersof Ola Wallet as of 2015

USD3.0Bvaluation

35 citiesin Southeast Asia

5.1M trips monthly average

2014

MAU – monthly active users*Data collected from various, inconsistent sources | Metrics and timeline not always comparable*

© 2017 IHS Markit

• City• Traditional “return to base” car sharing

• Up to 108 miles per day

• Exploring one-way rentals, delivery

• Residential• Small, closed community usage

• Targeting large operators to build scale

• Hub / express drive• Longer term rentals for Uber and Lyft

• ReachNow free-floating car sharing• Ride

• On-demand premium ride hailing

• Fleet solutions• Residential shared vehicles

• Share• P2P car-sharing, delivery and return

• Reserve• Longer-term personal rentals, delivery

21

General Motors – Maven

13,500+ users and 30M+ miles400 vehicles total in 13 US markets

BMW – ReachNow

32,000 users and 1.1M miles800 vehicles total in 3 US markets

…but automakers are adjusting to new mobility services and are also (re)framing the conversation


© 2017 IHS Markit

Mobility business models for long-term success

Simplicity may drive rapid adoption but loyalty may be forgotten when faced

with similar competition…

…whereas rich experiences attract value-seekers and inspire loyalty in heavy users and relatively niche markets.

22


Smartphone access and digital payment

Widely deployed but single-purpose platform

Connecting users and partners with minimal friction

Flexibility of commitment for drivers

Variable quality of service

Digital access and paymentplus deep vehicle integration

Existing customers yields quality client base, targeted recruitment

Heavy users and brand loyalists require minimal education

Global company infrastructureenables consistent service

Consistently high value andquality of service

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Women in Auto Care | February 2017

THANK YOU!

ありがとうございました

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감사합니다

ध यवाद

DANKE

MERCI

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AUTOMOTIVE Transportation evolvingcdn.ihs.com › www › pdf › 20170308-Carlson_ed.pdf ·...

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Transcript of AUTOMOTIVE Transportation evolvingcdn.ihs.com › www › pdf › 20170308-Carlson_ed.pdf ·...