Automotive Electronics & Semiconductor Market...
Transcript of Automotive Electronics & Semiconductor Market...
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Electronics &
Semiconductor Market Trends
LIDARs and sensor fusion ECUs advancing ADAS
architectures towards automated driving
The Annual Tokyo SOI Workshop, 2017
Akhilesh Kona, Senior Analyst, Automotive Electronics and Semiconductors
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
• Automotive electronics and semiconductor market trends
• ADAS architectures towards automated driving
• Current state of ADAS sensor architectures
• Key technologies enabling next-gen ADAS architectures
• Market Outlook & Key Takeaway
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DIGITAL & WEB SOLUTIONS
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TECHNOLOGY,MEDIA &TELECOM
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Offices in 34 countries
IHS Markit colleagues
12,000+ 130+
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Vehicle production rises slowly with various degrees in
emerging and established markets
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Chart Title
Middle East/Africa
South America
South Asia
Japan/Korea
North America
Greater China
Europe
Vehicle production volume forecast in million units
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Millio
n U
nit
s
Source: IHS Markit
5
2.4% CAGR (2016 – 22)
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Average value of electronic systems per car to cross
$1500 by 2022
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
$1,350
$1,400
$1,450
$1,500
$1,550
$1,600
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Avg
. va
lue
of
ele
ctr
on
ics
pe
r c
ar
Chart Title
Chassis &Safety
Body &Convenience
Infotainment
Powertrain
ADAS
Avg.ElectronicsValue
Automotive electronics system revenue
© 2017 IHS Markit
Au
tom
oti
ve E
lectr
on
ics S
yste
m R
ev
en
ue
(Billio
ns o
f U
S $
)
Source: IHS Markit
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5.6% CAGR (2016 – 22)
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Automated driving, connectivity and electrification
fueling automotive semiconductor growth
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Chart Title
Logic IC
Memory IC
OpticalSemiconductors
Discretes
Sensors & Radars
MicrocomponentIC
Analog IC
Automotive semiconductor revenue by device
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Au
tom
oti
ve S
em
ico
nd
ucto
r R
ev
en
ue
(Billio
ns o
f U
S $
)
Source: IHS Markit
7
7.1% CAGR (2016 – 22)
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Old generation: C-segment with 1 ADAS ECU
1-Series 2009
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Proliferation of ADAS ECUs on the new platform
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1-Series 2015
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Old generation: E-segment with 14 ADAS ECUs
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7-Series 2009
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Advancement of features on new platform
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7-Series 2015
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Typical ADAS architecture requirements
ADAS Module Avg. per L3 Avg. per L4 Avg. per L5
Sensor Fusion 1 2 2
Exterior Camera 5 8 8
Interior Camera 1 1 1
Short/Mid-range
Radar
4 6 6
Long-range Radar 1 2 2
Long-range LIDAR 1 1 1-2*
Short-range LIDAR 2* 2-4* 4
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*Architectures based on existing pilot car platforms
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Key technologies enabling next-
generation ADAS architectures
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Addressing the gaps in automotive LIDAR technology
Typical gap in LIDAR performance specifications
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15
LIDAR
Current Standard Required Performance
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Pure solid-state technology to dominate LIDAR space
by 2025
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
LIDAR shipment forecast in million units
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Millio
ns o
f U
nit
s
Source: IHS Markit
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
Basic Flash
Hi-Res (2D/3D) Flash
Mechanical
MEMS & EOS
Optical Phase Array
CAGR (2020-26)
LIDAR shipments CAGR (2020-26)
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Machine vision – a software driven market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
High-end (>5 functions)
Mid-range(4-5functions)
Basic (< 3functions)
Revenue for front-view camera modules
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Rev
en
ue s
hare
of
fro
nt-
vie
w c
am
era
mo
du
les
Source: IHS Markit
System revenue for front-view camera modules to
grow fourfold by 2022
• Basic cameras: Mass adoption in economy
segments to meet regional guidelines with
declining semiconductor BOM and software
costs
• Mid-range and high-end cameras: adoption on
premium segments with increasing
semiconductor BOM and software costs
Semiconductor revenue for front-view camera
modules will reach up to $1.5 billion by 2022
• SoCs based on MPUs or FPGAs?
• Intel (Mobileye) and the rest (S32V, TDAx, R-car,
Visconti, Zynq,)
• Key benchmarks: power consumption, performance
and safety compliance
Presentation Name / Month 2017
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Sensor fusion modules – Growth in semiconductor
value for safety-critical functions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Surround-view Parking Automated Driving
ADAS sensor fusion module forecast
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Un
it s
hare
of
sen
so
r fu
sio
n E
CU
s
Source: IHS Markit
System level:
• Challenge: Software for enabling AD via
machine vision, deep learning, sensor fusion
and etc.
• Opportunity: Universities, technology labs and
start-ups working on unconventional
technologies (deep learning, machine vision,
etc.)
Chip level:
• Challenge: High performance processors
meeting traditional automotive requirements
(power consumption, functional safety
temperature, life-time, etc.)
• Opportunity: Suppliers with high-performance
computing platforms at lower power
consumption and small die size
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Market share for ADAS sensor suppliers (in revenue)
Bosch
Continental
Valeo
Autoliv
Magna
Delphi
Panasonic
Denso
ZF TRW
Tung Thih Electronic
Sony
Hyundai Mobis
Hella
Clarion
Aisin
Sharp
Gentex
Velodyne
Samsung
Kyocera
Others
2016 ADAS electronics system supplier
© 2017 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
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On Semiconductor
Omnivision
Bosch
Murata
Valeo
Nicera
Infineon
STMicroelectronics
FLIR
Panasonic
NXP
Sony
Melexis
Gentex
ULIS
Others
2016 ADAS semiconductor* supplier share
© 2017 IHS Markit
*Only for radar transceivers, image sensors, ultrasonic sensors and infrared sensors
Source: IHS Markit
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Key Takeaways
• Economy vehicle segments – proliferation of
sensors and ECUs for compliance (NCAPs,
NHTSA,..).
• Premium vehicle segments – Addition of
LIDARS and high-end sensor fusion modules
for automated driving.
• No compromise on sensor technology for
automated driving – redundancy is a must.
• Functional safety and performance for
autonomy will drive the semiconductor
growth through artificial intelligence and
sensor fusion.
• Consolidation of ECUs to drive high-
performance computing platforms.
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