AuthorsGeorge Craig, Evelyne Richard, David Richardson

David Burridge, Sarah JonesFrederic Atger, Martin Ehrendorfer,

Martti Heikinheimo, Brian Hoskins, Andrew Lorenc John Methven , Tiziana Paccagnella,

Jean Pailleux, Florence Rabier, Mark Roulston, Roger Saunders, Richard Swinbank,

Stefano Tibaldi, Heini Wernli

European Regional Activities

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Sarah Jones (KIT, Germany, Chair) Stefan Klink (EUCOS)Detlev Majewski (Deutscher Wetterdienst)Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC, Italy, TIGGE-LAM)Florence Rabier (Meteo France, DAOS, WGNE)David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE)Johannes Schmetz (EUMETSAT)Richard Swinbank (UK Met Office, GIFS/TIGGE)Olivier Talagrand (Institute Laplace, France, PDP)Heini Wernli (ETH, Switzerland, PDP)

Consider representation from: Polar community SERA Eastern Europe

European Regional Committee

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THORPEX in Europe

Significant contributions in all areas of THORPEX (DAOS, GIFS-TIGGE, PDP)

Strong THORPEX communities in operational and academic centres (e.g. Data Targeting System, TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM, YOTC)

Current dedicated funding for THORPEX projects: PANDOWAE, PREVASSAMBLE, DIAMET, GEOWOW

Leadership of / support for THORPEX field programs (e.g. CONCORDIASI, T-PARC, T-NAWDEX pilot flights)

Collaboration with other THORPEX regions

4

Sea-Ice limit

640 Dropsondes released over Antarctica(20100923-20101201)

CONCORDIASI (see DAOS Report)

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Concordiasi provided an unprecedented data coverage of meteorological observations over Antarctica

Both dropsonde and gondola information seem to have a positive impact on forecast performance (preliminary results from NRL, DWD and MF)

Gondola temperature data at 60hPa shows the largest model errors in areas of strong gravity-wave activity

Dropsonde information confirms statistics obtained with radiosondes and provide a more global view

Most models have problems predicting the lowest level temperatures

CONCORDIASI

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RPEUROSIP multi-model ensemble

seasonal forecasting with ocean-atmosphere modelsThree European models so far:

ECMWFMet OfficeMeteo-FranceGermany planning to contribute

NCEP has just become an associate partnerNot yet integrated into system

An evolving systemReal-time since mid-2005Common operational schedule (products released at 12Z on

15th)Monthly mean data in ECMWF operational archive (daily from

some partners)

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PREVASSEMBLESupported by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche for a four-year period (2009-2012)Study of all aspects of ensemble methods, for both assimilation and prediction in meteorology and oceanography

Partners: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL, Paris, Leader O. Talagrand) Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (INRIA, Rennes, F. Le Gland)Météo-France (Toulouse, G. Desroziers).

 

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PREVASSEMBLEThe main results so far for THORPEX: Saturation of prediction ensembles. Objective evaluation scores for ensemble prediction saturate for ensemble size 30~50. This results from the fact that only probabilities for events or probability distributions for small-dimensional variables can be objectively validated. This has significant implications for the design of ensemble prediction system.  Ensemble variational assimilation. The ensemble variational assimilation AEARP has been implemented for estimating flow-dependent background error variances and correlations in ARPEGE, and defining the initial conditions of the ensemble prediction system PEARP. The impact is positive for both applications.

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PREVASSEMBLE 

Quantification of model error for ensemble assimilation and prediction. The evolved analysis error covariance provided by AEARP can be compared with the observed covariance of the total forecast error. This can provide an estimate of the model error covariance. This approach has been implemented in both AEARP and PEARP systems, with positive impacts.

 Other work on the bayesian character of ensemble variational assimilation, on the mathematical properties of Ensemble Kalman filter and of particle filters, and on assimilation of images of the oceanic circulation.

Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector

DFG Research Unit2008 – 2014

www.pandowae.de

Highlights of Phase 1

5 Postdocs, 7 Ph.D. Students, Project manager

Collaboration with DWD, ECMWF, MeteoFrance, EUCOS and many colleagues at academic institutions

Dedicated Young Scientists programme

7 Ph.D. and 7 Masters students have graduated / will graduate this year

10 Peer reviewed publications appeared / in press

Phase 1 Research Area Joint Projects

Harnisch, F., G. Craig, D. Anwender, S.C. Jones, S. Lang, J. Keller, M. Weissmann, L. Wiegand, paper in preparation.

Grams, C. M., H. Wernli, S. C. Jones, M. Boettcher, J. Campa, U. Corsmeier, J. H. Keller, C.-J. Lenz, and L. Wiegand, 2010: From the extratropical transition of Hanna (2008) to a Mediterranean cyclone: the key role of diabatic processes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., in press.

Glatt, I., A. Dörnbrack, S. C. Jones, J. H. Keller, O. Martius , A. Müller , D. Peters, V. Wirth, Rossby Wave Train Diagnostics: An Intercomparison of Different Methods. Tellus A, in press.

Upper-level Rossby waves Moist processes and diabatic

Rossby waves

Adaptivity and Ensembles

Phase 2 (2011-2014)

Core of PANDOWAE will continue as in Phase 1

Partners: KIT, Uni Mainz, Uni Munich, IAP Kühlungsborn, ETH Zürich, Uni Bern, DWD

Funding for Project Manager, 5 Postdocs, 6 Ph.D. Students, Young Scientists Programme, Workshops

Wealth of national and international collaborations

DWD and ECMWF remain vitally important partners

Seek to develop new links to MeteoSchweiz

New Research Themes

New topics in PANDOWAE: • Blocking• Rossby waveguide• Sub-seasonal time scales• stratospheric influence• small-scale processes in tropopause region•YOTC• tropical convection• PDP / SERA pilot project

New priorities in THORPEX:

sources of model error (link to WGNE),

seasonal prediction (link to WCRP)

Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)

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EU-funded FP7 project beginning September 2011, Weather component led by David Richardson, Partners ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT

Significant European contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) by improving the overall quality of the current GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI), addressing access to data, usability and interoperability

GEOWOW(GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water)

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GEOWOW will: significantly enhance the accessibility of the TIGGE

archive at ECMWF for the wider user community, in particular the ability to efficiently access long time series of forecast data at user-specified locations

promote the wider use of TIGGE data for research across a range of GEO Societal Benefit Areas and show how the TIGGE archive can be used to develop ensemble products for different applications

demonstrate the potential use of such ensemble products, with a focus on severe weather, in close liaison with the WMO SWFDPs.

GEOWOW(GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water)

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17September 2010

NERC Storm Risk Mitigation Programme 2009-2014

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Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend

Links to other initiatives: HYMEX

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19September 2010

Links to other initiatives: DWD Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research

Initiated by DWD Scientific Advisory Board led by Gerhard Adrian and Clemens Simmer

5 DWD / University collaborative research groups: Atmospheric dynamics and their predictability Data assimilation Model development Climate monitoring and diagnostics Ideal use of information provided through weather forecasting and climate monitoring to the benefit of the general public

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First THORPEX European Regional MeetingKarlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May 2011

Aims: to review progress in European THORPEX research to strengthen existing collaborations and initiate new

collaborations within the European THORPEX community to identify necessary revisions to the THORPEX European

Plan to discuss European involvement within new THORPEX

initiatives

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First THORPEX European Regional MeetingKarlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May 2011

Funded by DFG, KIT, EUMETSAT, THORPEX IPO, EMS Young Scientist Travel Award

Local Organisation Aurelia Müller (PANDOWAE) 74 participants from 7 European countries and 2 European

Institutions Talks, posters, lots of informal discussion Break out groups reviewed status of European plan

http://www.pandowae.de/en/newsevents/thorpex-erm

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First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of DAOS Breakout group

Coordination with field programs: data to GTS, publish results, DAOS webpage to advertise field campaigns and data monitoring2-way interaction with data producers: rapid-scan satellite data to be used for field campaigns, and field campaign extra data to be provided to data producers to validate their retrievals coordinated investigation of Forecast Sensitivity to Observations -focus on the Tropics and polesIntercomparison of cloudy radiances should be continued.Data impact / forecast sensitivity of observations on fine scales for HyMeX

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First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of PDP Breakout group

Revisited actions in European Plan: 1. T-NAWDEX: strong interest to have international field

experiment in 2014/15. Planning with North American colleagues, NMHSs, EUMETSAT

2. Specific scientific challenges: add convection-resolving models, promote use of existing data sets (YOTC, T-PARC, etc.)

3. SERA/PDP pilot project: difficult currently no links to SERA groups; possible sectors are renewable energy / insurance / air chemistry

4.  Cooperation with WGNE should continue; new focus on model errors 

5. Link to other regions through SWFDPs

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First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of TIGGE Breakout group TIGGE actions examined, combined and prioritised:1. Establish infrastructure for the exchange of ensemble forecast data and

provide data to users. 2. Develop data access agreements to support TIGGE and the GIFS

development project. 3. Establish a European data set for objective verification. 4. Investigate ensemble data assimilation methods and the development of

initial perturbation methods. 5. Develop stochastic physical parameterizations. 6. Develop a posteriori calibration methods to correct forecast errors and

combine ensemble forecasts7. Develop methods to evaluate the performance of ensemble prediction

systems8. Determine optimal use of resources. 9. Application of TIGGE data for GIFS development project The first three

priority areas are Tropical cyclones, Precipitation, Surface winds. 10.Develop dynamically oriented diagnostics11.Use TIGGE data in other application areas. 12.Evaluate the performance of European LAM EPS for forecasting different

type of Severe/High Impact Weather Events outside Europe.  

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First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: overall recommendations

Cross-cutting topics between all working groups are ensemble data assimilation and verification were seen as. Joint workshop of THORPEX and the WWRP Verification working group was proposedInvolvement of colleagues from eastern Europe in the THORPEX European activities should be enhanced. Links to SERA needed, e.g. projects related to renewable energy, flood forecasts for HYMEX or the insurance/reinsurance industry.

A useful, productive and enjoyable meeting

ERM Meetings should be continued (when, where and who?)

Support of THORPEX IPO for such activities essential