Australian Federal Election 2013 - Senate preference flows for Victoria

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FEDERAL ELECTION 2013 Victorian Senate Voting Guide

description

In this year's Australian Federal Election those that live in Victoria will have the choice of 38 political parties and 7 independents to vote for in the senate. In this presentation we look at all the parties who've lodged a Group Preference ticket to see how the parties are aligned based on preferences. We also crunched the numbers to find out which candidates could take the 6 available senate seats. Due to preference flows any number of strange outcomes are possible. We've listed a number of what we believe are the most likely outcomes. Thanks goes to http://www.virginvoters.com.au/ for providing some of the party logos.

Transcript of Australian Federal Election 2013 - Senate preference flows for Victoria

Page 1: Australian Federal Election 2013 - Senate preference flows for Victoria

FEDERAL ELECTION 2013

Victorian Senate Voting Guide

Page 2: Australian Federal Election 2013 - Senate preference flows for Victoria

POLITICAL PARTIES

The 2013 Election will feature 38 Political Parties and 7 independents

Only 16 of the 38 parties competed in the previous 2010 Federal Election

10 of the 38 parties have been registered for 3 months or less

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PARTY CLASSIFICATIONS

Each political party is classified based on how they preference the other parties

All of the parties allocated one of the five categories: Right Wing Religious Right Left Wing Single Issue Parties Fringe Parties

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PARTY CLASSIFICATIONS (CONT.)

The following information is presented for each party:

PartyLogo

First major party preference

Party Name

Classification

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RELIGIOUS RIGHT

Rise Up Australia Party

Religious Right

Family First

Religious Right

Australian Christians

Religious Right

DLP Democratic Labour

Religious Right

Australian Independents

Confused Religious Right

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RIGHT WING PARTIES

Liberal/Nationals

Moderate Right Wing

Katter's Australian Party

Right Wing Protectionist

Country Alliance

Rural Right

Palmer United Party

Left Leaning Right Wing

Building Australia Party

Micro Party/Right

Australian Voice Party

Micro Party/Right

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LEFT WING PARTIES

The Wikileaks Party

Left Wing

Australian Labor Party

Moderate Left

Senator Online

Micro Party/Left

Pirate Party

Micro Party/Left

Secular Party of Australia

Micro Party/Left

Sex Party

Left Wing

Australian Democrats

Moderate Left

The Greens

Left Wing

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SINGLE ISSUE PARTIES

Bullet Train For Australia

Single issue party

Bank Reform Party

Single issue party

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics

Single issue/Religious Right

Drug Law Reform

Single issue party

Animal Justice Party

Single issue party

Stop CSG

Single issue party

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party

Single Issue/Right

Shooters and Fishers

Single Issue/Right

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SINGLE ISSUE PARTIES (CONT.)

Stable Population Party

Single Issue

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP)

PartySingle issue party

Australian Motoring Enthusiast PartySingle issue party

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FRINGE PARTIES

Socialist Equality Party

Far Left

Citizens Electoral Council

Far Right

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TOP 10 HIGHEST PREFERENCED PARTIES

1st Bullet Train For Australia

2nd Bank Reform Party

3rd Senator Online

4th Building Australia

5th Australian Independents

6th Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party

7th Stop CSG

8th Australian Democrats

9th Australian Voice Party

10th Animal Justice

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BOTTOM 10 LOWEST PREFERENCED PARTIES

32nd One Nation

33rd Rise Up Australia Party

34th Palmer United Party

35th Australian Labor Party

36th Stop the Greens

37th Liberal/Nationals

38th The Greens

39th Smoker's Rights

40th Socialist Equality Party

41st Citizens Electoral Council

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MOST LIKELY VICTORIAN SENATE CANDIDATES

Based on polling and previous election results the six available seats in the Senate will be filled by:

Liberal Party x2

Labor Party x2

Greens x1

Unknown

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MOST LIKELY VICTORIAN SENATE CANDIDATES (CONT.)

The final 6th seat will be chosen based on preferences

Thanks to Antony Green’s senate calculator and some guesstimation the following parties are likely to win the final seat:

Liberals (35% chance)

Family First (25% chance)

The Wikileaks Party (10% chance)

Bullet Train for Australia (10% chance)

DLP Democratic Labour (10% chance)

All other minor party (10% chance)

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GUESS THE 6 CANDIDATES BASED ON THIS ESTIMATED ALLOCATION OF VOTES

PartyTotal Votes

% Votes

Liberal / The Nationals 1,099,386 32.87%

Australian Labor Party 967,233 28.92%

The Greens 452,669 13.54%

The Wikileaks Party 176,651 5.28%

Katter's Australian Party 148,213 4.43%

Palmer United Party 97,359 2.91%

DLP Democratic Labour 67,917 2.03%

Sex Party 50,519 1.51%

Family First 49,850 1.49%

Shooters and Fishers 37,471 1.12%

Australian Christians 34,794 1.04%

Rise Up Australia Party 28,772 0.86%

Bank Reform Party 24,757 0.74%

Group AJ 20,074 0.60%

Group T 15,390 0.46%

Australian Democrats 10,706 0.32%

Bullet Train For Australia 8,698 0.26%

Socialist Equality Party 8,028 0.24%

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GUESS THE 6 CANDIDATES BASED ON THIS ESTIMATED ALLOCATION OF VOTES (CONT.)

PartyTotal Votes

% Votes

Liberal / The Nationals 1,099,386 32.87%

Australian Labor Party 967,233 28.92%

The Greens 452,669 13.54%

The Wikileaks Party 176,651 5.28%

Katter's Australian Party 148,213 4.43%

Palmer United Party 97,359 2.91%

DLP Democratic Labour 67,917 2.03%

Sex Party 50,519 1.51%

Family First 49,850 1.49%

Shooters and Fishers 37,471 1.12%

Australian Christians 34,794 1.04%

Rise Up Australia Party 28,772 0.86%

Bank Reform Party 24,757 0.74%

Group AJ 20,074 0.60%

Group T 15,390 0.46%

Australian Democrats 10,706 0.32%

Bullet Train For Australia 8,698 0.26%

Socialist Equality Party 8,028 0.24%

Candidate Party

1 Mitch FIFIELD Liberal Party

2Gavin MARSHALL Australian Labor Party

3 Scott RYAN Liberal Party

4 Jacinta COLLINS Australian Labor Party

5 Mark ERWOODBullet Train for Australia

6 Janet RICE Australian Greens

The current Group Ticket voting system used inThe senate could give a party with 0.26% of the vote a seat in the Senate

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HOW TO TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR PREFERENCES

You can choose your own preferences by voting below the line

It’s not easy to number all the candidates from 1 to 97. The best way to manage this is by using an online tool to create a personalised “how to vote card”

Cluey Voter is recommended - https://www.clueyvoter.com

You could also use - http://www.belowtheline.org.au/

Don’t forget to also number above the line! Below the line will count first, but if you make a mistake your above the line vote will then be counted.

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This presentation was prepared by Michael Berry from the Progressive Democratic Party.

The PDP supports changing to optional preference voting in the senate and abolishing group tickets.

Visit out website (http://pdp.org.au) for more information about our party including why we aren’t contesting the 2013 Election.