8/3/2019 Australian Dollar Outlook11/30/2011

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FX DAILY REPORT WEDNESDAY 30 NOVEMBER 2011

BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED GPO BOX 4718MELBOURNE VIC 3001AUSTRALIA

TOLL FREE 1800 003 815INFO@BELLPOTTER.COM.AUWWW.BELLPOTTER.COM.AU

ABN 25 006 390 772AFS LICENCE NO.243480

Bell FX Currency Outlook:

The Australian Dollar rose for the second consecutiveovernight session last night, trading north throughparity on some encouraging news out of Europe andstronger than expected retail sales data in the US.

Australia: The AUD has rallied as European leaders scramble to structurea plan at tonights meeting of the 17 EU Finance Ministers where there arereports that they will be discussing a greater role for the ECB and the IMF.This particularly refers to whether the ECB should channel funds totroubled Euro countries through the IMF. Here, the Federal Governmentyesterday published its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO)in which it projected a surplus of A$1.5bn for 2012/13, which was less thanits May budget forecast for a surplus of A$3.5bn. In all theory, there werefew surprises. Net debt is expected to peak at 8.9% of GDP in 2011/12which compares to the average net debt in G7 economies which isforecast to rise to 80% by the end of 2011. Nearly all are questioning theGovernments strategy (wisdom) to return a surplus next year given theever present and real mounting global risks and is at policy odds with thelikely relaxing of interest rate settings by the RBA in coming months.Today, Q3 private capital expenditure data is released ahead of Q3 GDPnext week. A busy night awaits, with the US releasing ADP Employment,pending home sales, Chicago PMI and the Feds Beige Book. In Europe,CPI and unemployment data are out, as well as news from the FinanceMinisters. We see AUD hovering at Parity, but watch out for more volatility,either way

Majors: The Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting is head of the agendatoday. The meeting has already approved EUR5.8bn in funding for Greecewhile the Dutch Minister said the EFSF is falling short and needs to see agreater role for the IMF. Financial markets are definitely hoping for goodstructural decisions to be made, and the solid auction of Italian bondsadded to the positive sentiment. Good news out of the US with theAmerican consumer, who represents about 70% of that countrys GDP,looking more confident. A much larger than expected rebound in USconsumer confidence to 56.0 (market 44.9 and last 40.9) certainly helpedmarket sentiment. On the back of this, US Federal Reserve Vice ChairJanet Yellen stated the scope remains to provide additionalaccommodation through enhanced guidance on the path of the federalfunds rate or through additional purchases of longer-term financial assets.They seem hell bent on their strategy to keep monetary settingsunchanged for some time yet. What interesting times we live in.

Economic Calendar

30 NOV AUS HIA New Home Sales OctEU Euro zone CPI NovUS Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey

Kimberly Limbert 08 8224 2725 klimbert@bellfx.com.au Bill Giffen 02 9255 7473 bgiffen@bellfx.com.auSally Fisher 08 8224 2771 sfisher@bellfx.com.au Geoff Louw 02 8243 3502 glouw@bellfx.com.au

Nick White 08 8224 2770 nwhite@bellfx.com.au Bronson Livingston 02 8243 3503 blivingston@bellfx.com.au

Scott Fleming 03 9235 1912 sfleming@bellfx.com.au Tracey Warren 02 9255 7294 twarren@bellfx.com.au

Stephen Blampied 03 9235 1960 sblampied@bellfx.com.au Scott Hill 02 8243 3504 shill@bellfx.com.au

Australian Dollar / USDollar

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11

Todays Forecast Range

USD 0.9900 1.0050

Currencies Last High Low

AUD / USD 1.0013 1.0077 0.9864

USD / JPY 77.86 78.28 77.63

EUR / USD 1.3328 1.3442 1.3286

GBP / USD 1.5608 1.5656 1.5470

NZD / USD 0.7619 0.7651 0.7512

AUD Crosses Last High Low

AUD / JPY 78.09 78.28 77.63

AUD / EUR 0.7513 0.7527 0.7425

AUD / GBP 0.6423 0.6442 0.6380

AUD / NZD 1.3137 1.3177 1.3101AUD / CAD 1.0326 1.0359 1.0221

Australian Rates Last Previous

Official Cash 4.50

3 Month Bill 4.60 4.63

10 Year Bond 3.85 3.97

US Rates Last Previous

Fed Funds 0.25

3 Month Libor 0.527 0.523

10 Year Bond 2.003 1.969

Commodities Last - / + (%)

Gold (US$ / oz) 1719.88 +0.4

Oil (WTI) US$/bbl) 99.78 +1.6

CRB Index 310.46 +0.8

Equities Last - / + (%)

ASX 200 4102 +1.08

Dow Jones 11609 +0.7

FTSE 5337 +0.5

Hang Seng 18256 +1.2

Nikkei 8478 +2.3

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