Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004...

Atmospheric Technology Division

Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting

Toulouse, June 2004

The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) -- Two years Later

Expected Outcomes, Pleasant Surprises and Future Challenges

David Parsons and Tammy WeckwerthNCAR/ATD

Boulder, COUSA



Toulouse, June 2004

Motivation



Toulouse, June 2004

Motivation• Floods, especially flash floods, cause more deaths each year than tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning and wind

storms

• Significant property losses due to flash floods and they are the highest percentage of federal aid events. (Recently >$8 billion per year and rising).

• Warnings are difficult: often night time events, public perception of precipitation events, dependent on hydrology and meteorology, and increases in skill will help (current warnings often < 1h).

• The problem of poor forecasts of flash floods and warm season convective is a problem that is international in scope.

• It has been argued that improvements in QPF for non-flood situations will have significant economic and social benefit.

• IHOP_2002 research will benefit other warm season warning and prediction problems



Toulouse, June 2004

Goals of IHOP_2002• Improved understanding and prediction of

warm season rainfall (0 –12 h forecast)

• Improved characterization of the time varying 3-D distribution of water vapor

• Four overlapping research components– Convective initiation– Quantitative precipitation forecasting– Atmospheric Boundary Layer– Instrumentation (optimal mix)



Toulouse, June 2004

Isentropic Airflow and Sounding Domain

Isentropic streamlines (37 C) for 2330 UTC

4 May 1961. The dashed lines are isobars at 100 hPa

intervals (from Carlson and Ludlam

1968)



Toulouse, June 2004

IHOP Summary: 13 May to 25 June

• >200 Technical participants from France, the US, Germany and Canada

• ~2500 additional soundings

• > 50 instrument platforms, 6 aircraft, 45 IOPs

• 268 h of airborne water vapor lidar measurements

• 76 h of airborne satellite evaluation measurements (S-HIS and NAST)

• Dedicated GOES-11 data



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Convective Initiation – Expected Outcomes



Toulouse, June 2004

Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies

Expected Outcomes



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QPF – Expected Outcomes

IHOP Research Forecast Models

(courtesy of Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL)



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Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes



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Some Pleasant Surprises

• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!



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One Example of Several Pleasant Instrumentation Surprises --- Refractivity



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Some Pleasant SurprisesUse of Data Set for Diverse and

Unexpected ApplicationsU wind for LLJ

anomaly from the diurnal mean

Obs

ClimateModel



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CAM3 Diurnal Composite (SGP, IHOP period)



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Some Successes Over the Past Year

• Rapid movement toward collaborative work, sometimes stretching well beyond the expected boundaries

• Rapid movement toward a mix of case studies and climatologies

• Healthy mix of observations and modeling work



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Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?

• Publications are one measure of success

– Some refereed publications are starting to appear

– Strong showing in conference literature

– Special issue in Monthly Weather Review



Toulouse, June 2004

Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?

• Impact on operational forecasting will be another measure utilized

– Prediction #1 – Radar refractivity will become operational in large part due to IHOP_2002

– Operational interest and eventual operational impact of reference radiosonde results

– Prediction #2 – Strong (possibly under appreciated) impact on operations through new conceptual model and increased knowledge of how to model convection



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Impact on operational forecasting will be another

measure utilized• Potential to contribute to big picture

questions facing NWP

– Increase and improve utilization of satellite data sets over land

– Improved treatment of land surface processes

– Improved assimilation of water (cloud, vapor and precipitation)

• Propose a meeting Thursday at lunch to discuss the long awaited assimilation workshop



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Impact on operational forecasting will be another

measure utilized

Email Tammy Weckwerth if you have ideas on other contributions of IHOP_2002 to prediction of warm season convection

Appreciate thoughts from PIs on how IHOP_2002 will address the other two big picture issues and how transfers to operations will occur



Toulouse, June 2004

Prospective on Future Experiments

• IHOP_2002

– Regional-scale meridional gradient in mixing ratio, soil moisture and vegetation

– High CAPE but strong CIN (the original conditionally unstable environment)

– “Relatively” low impact of transient synoptic disturbances

– Strong terrain impact to the west of the experimental domain

– Large systems are nocturnal



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• CSIP

– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation

– Lower CAPE but less CIN

– Stronger impact of transient synoptic disturbances

– Modest terrain impacts within the experimental domain

– Lack of “continental” propagation of large convective systems



Toulouse, June 2004


• German QPF experiment

– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation

– Lower CAPE but less CIN

– Large terrain impacts within the experimental domain so that terrain may control convective systems

– Strong impact of transient synoptic disturbances



Toulouse, June 2004

THORPEX

The THORPEX slides on the European flood are courtesy of Melvyn Shapiro, Co-chair, THORPEX International Science Steering Committee

11stst Example: Central European Flood Example: Central European Floodss

August 2002

Prague

Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002

France

Italy

The StormThe Storm

Dresden GermanyDresden Germany

Central European FloodsCentral European Floods

Japan Japan Austria Austria

11 Aug.

1 Aug. Cyclogenesis off Japan

Courtesy of Shapiro and Thorpe

1 21 2

3

1 231

2 3 4

15

23 4

5 6 74

56

74

7

865

Flood

22ndnd Example: Minnesota Flood: 9-11 Example: Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002June 2002

Moderate drought on 1 June

Widespreadrainfall in excess of 5 inches.

Flood with >$340 million in federal disaster aid.

80% of homes and businesses damaged in Roseau, MN

Locally most significant flood on record.

Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002

Convection along Mei-Yu Front

Wisc. flood, previouswave packet ?

1st Downstream Cyclogenesis

2nd Downstreamcyclogenesis

Mn floodfrom frontaloverrunning



Toulouse, June 2004

Thank for your attention and

for your hard work on IHOP_2002

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004...

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