%MmmM>$- wmm.% %＼m i988#n/i

assfc: x&iim^MiLWikfemmvmi

Investigation into position accuracy of typhoon center

determined on GMS imagery

Takashi Ichinari

Abstract

MSC reports the information on the typhoon obtained from GMS imagery in the code of

SAREP (WMO internationalcode FM-85VI) since 1stJune 1984. In SAREP, positionof typhoon

center (hereafter GMS-center) and its accuracy which is determined from 10 cloud patterns of

typhoon are included.

The diameters of the area where typhoon centers possibly exist were newly obtained for a

term of a year (1987, T8702-T8723). The diameters were verifiedby the difference between

GMS-centers and best tracks (determined by JMA) and were in approximate agreement with the

position accuracy reported in SAREP. Besides the diameter can represent position accuracy

more properly than the current determination.

%Mmm.^y?~ (msc) Tno^mmmmm<Di

ifc^^gll (Image Display:WTIDP11 6 )H B

fesfect^^So s&tzmz, a^sig^csarep

%&Jt (JMA) -CftJgUfeii^JtKL, fuSJI^cfS

i. m^tt&T-ftmm

uttzizi mmmo msc ^ ≪ ^ -5^^tt sr -*

1301M k 6 ^fH Kft ?>tifc JMA c r - ^ 543#J *

Meteorological SatelliteCenter

i.i mM<D%m

msc mfem: msc tmmmmfr s>m%vtz-&m

H (besttrack)o

Wft^iftM "･Mscm^fit jma ^^fic^

^'C^J^ffiS : SAREPm~CMM$nt^5 *M

^^^ffi^lS : MSC izisiff6 tphmfeftMR^

f^H-cti, idp ±-cs^citg t#x e>

i. 2 sarep R?m u ?≫^'^mfemm

SAREP$gT"te. ^'Ci^BC^J^filS* Table-lc

i5f35i*TViSo 3SftN MSC Tti^jjg (1984) cid

-31-

250

METEORLOGICAL SATELLITE CENTER TECHNICAL NOTE Nal7 NOVEMBER 1988

(Table-2)&ffr*U ^n^Lti^-y*^*

'Cd^fUS (At)***, SAREP≪T≪i;T^So

ft) SAREPIg-Tfi, IS^At-C^^1-o

Table―1 Determination accuracy of

tropical cyclone center in SAREP

A t -*MIH£≫ffic+<&ffiKcW5£*fft

Code

0 4"&tta*Hfflc 1 0 k m£Jfi

1 ≪frMia≪ttBc 2 0k mjg/lrt

2 +'&≪≪≪&■c 5 0km≪rt

3 +&≫*≫*&■c 1 0 0 k mJslrt

4 +<M*aiWftBc 2 0 0k mJ^rt

5 +<M*a*{ftBc3 0 0 kmjart

/ 8H£-e#tt≪f'≫

£**£c# 3-F (1~4) SflC^I-o 0*c'*'W

a, #3-KK*riiS-r**'C,^^iR^c^s$(iE)i)

#3-Kc*^≫Jt≫Stt,

3- F 1 (Fig. 1 - 1) Ttt, *^^^MM20km^

rtfc, 52^|+50#!l (96%) *5^#ltUSo

n - F 2 (Fig. 1 - 2 ) Tfi, 4>ii>ft3£KM5Okm£<

rtC, 238^1*234^1 (98%) A^^LTV^O

z

a

150

100

50

0

*

Fig.1-1

Table-2 Correspondencebetween SAREP

code and cloudpattern

A t -a&$fi*ffic+<fcffiBc＼!lJ£≪l*

Cloud Pattern Code

1. Distinct small eye 1

2. Distinct large eye 2

3. Ragged eye 2

4. Banding eye 2

5. Distinct spiral band 2

6. Distinct CDO 2

7. Indistinct CDO 3

8. Shear 3

9. Organized cb-cluster 3

10. Unorganized cb-cluster 4

n - K 3 (Fig. 1 - 3 ) T≪. +'fr8tf£≫glOOkniJa

WK, 237#|+228#| (96%) tffrftLX^Zo

3-K4 (Fig. 1 - 4 ) T≪, *^ftSE≫S200kmUt

rttc, 16^1^15^ (94%) i^ltt^o

ZV&iftftL-C^iZbbfrfrZo tot, S^°^

100 150 200DISTANCE(KM)

Distribution of the difference between JMA' s and

MSC s center location for SAREP 'code 1'

-32-

o

o

o

150

100

50

150

100

so

0

150

100

50

SUfcffiM-tz>*- mm& *17^ 1988#ll£

50･100

DISTANCE(KM)

150 200

Fie. 1-2 Same as in Fig. 1-1 except for SAREP 'code2'

50 100 150 200JL. DISTANCE IKM)

Fie. 1-3 Same as in Fie. 1-1 except for SAREP lcode3'

50 100

OISTANCE(KM)

150 200

Fig. 1-4 Same as in Fig. 1-1 except for SAREP lcode4'

-33-

250

250

-250

250100 200

DISTANCE[KM)

150

Fig.2―1 Distribution of the difference between

JMA's and MSC's center location for All

Dattern

50

100 15C 200DISTANCE(KM)

Same as in Fig.2-1 except for Shear pattern

50

Fig.2-3

250

Fig.2―2 Same as in Fig.2-1 except for Distincteye pattern

-34-

METEORLOGICAL SATELLITE CENTER TECHNICAL NOTE Nq17 NOVEMBER ,1988

2. w>&xmmo)mt

i$jM,<DM^7->t>K Table-2C^1-l0ac£fc'**

0fflbi&＼<>'*f―><Dfflh LT, ^ti^nDistinct

eye patternt Shear patterncM^^^o

2.1 All pattern

£Tc/N°?-y££ff-f 3 t, 543#j-C$>&o Fig.

it, ±fctLXm<D'b$^1ifcfrWM*l>, 50km

Wft (a- F 2 K^tJS) K482^J (89%), 201^^^ (3

-K lMttfcO C360^!l(66%) *^*t, HKM#*J

-3kLtzM (MO) fc1320H (24%) &-itzo

2.2 Distinct eye pattern

Z.0)'*■?*-Wi, distinct small eye t distinct

large eye £Mf-Ltz fcQTUmh^ tzo Fig. 2-2

^ (97%) *S20kmmrtC^*-r*o

QZ

z

o

100

50

100

50

2.3 Shear pattern

m*mtitz-R.mfchz>hv-enmh^tzo Fig.2-3

£^3 J:,MtiO~2lOkmi:J!A|gHC^*1-5o ititi

a^*s^:§ <*lLtv>4o 50kmWrtK57M (78%)

*^*t> 20kmi^F(g^fe40^J(56%) *^*-fSo

5

I

SUfc*M-&>*- tttRtf* IB17-S- 1988*11/!

3. 4>'b#&tn* t *>k*&mm t <mm

3.1 All Pattern

Fig. 3 - 1 KjfLtzfy'b&lEffim t $>&9k%.&M

§ *5/Jn$ <, *bVk%mB&*. § < 4 o T fcJSP*f#fi

^^MM50kmJ^±-C 3 Offi|^l*5^Bf K & S o200km&rt

(3-F4C*HS) c*J≫TH*^-5≪≪K543^4'

541#!l(99%JU±) *^*-T*o

250

200

w

GO

150

100

50

3.2 Distincteye pattern

Z(D^7~y＼$, 3-K 1 t 2iZi>tzio Fig.3 -

2 £^-5 fc, 63^^"Cj653- K 2 C^t)^f 550kmR^

≫-rffl**l4≪≪rtK^^U F^52f!|(81%) *J20km

3.3 Shear pattern

Z.(D^9-y＼%, 3-K 3 CJbfcio Fig. 3- 3c

#&£≪** S ≪―£ K * o "Cv14 c *s^*≫ 40

a - F

3 C^)S1--SlOOkm0^:^c^^rtK73F!l4]67^J (92

%) *s^*t. 1EIC47WI (64%) **5Okm0*iftcffl#

fleets.

■TSlHl-c3-F0ffiJ≪rtC9O%J^±*^^L, t^

fc, ±SB≪fcDISKl7>'^/jN$^3-F0^i*rtKfe

" 0

o

a Qo Oa

Z ALL PATTERN

| ( PATTERN 1-10 )

TOTAL = 543

sarep cnnF =.<

A

O

SAREP CODE = 3

SAREP CODE = 2

iu

1 & "

SAREP CODE = 1

^ h£ ?SV"SAREP CODE = 0

a? **

0 50 100 iSO 200 250DISTANCE(KM)

Fig.3―1 Comparison between area size of possible geographical position and the

difference distance between JMA's and MSC's center location for All pattern

-35-

METEORLOGICAL SATELLITE CENTER TECHNICAL NOTE Nal7 NOVEMBER 1988

250

200

150

1

55

wNto

100

50

250

200

150

100

50

" 0

o

o

ZD

Oo

T>

g DISTINCT EYE

jj>( PATTERN i - 2 )

^ TOTAL = S3

5AREP CDDP = <

"0

o

Qs

SAREP CODF = 3

SAREP CODE = 2

_A

SAREP CODE = 1

r* KA

SAREP CODE = 0

p^*sr

0 50 100 150 200 250

DISTANCEIKH!

Fie.3―2 Same as in Fig.3-1 except for Distinct eye pattern

- o

Oo

3 )

g SHEAR

° ( PATTERN 8 )

^ TOTAL = 73

sarfp rnnF = 4

/

>･

O

SAREP CODE = 3

&

&

SAREP CODE = 2

1 A

a!y *

SAREP CODE ≪ 1

≪z2 ≫

SAREP CODE = Q

* A

c so00 150 200 25

DISTANCEIKM)

Fig.3―3 Same as in Fig.3-1 except for Shear pattern

-36-

*UfeffiS-fe>*- ffllffl£ IB17-?- 1988 ^ 11 ^

4. w*<p->m<r>*>b&&im<≫5t*i

4.1 Distinctsmall eye

:o^-yii, HB**!JBMf(S≫JER) T/Jn^v^

c*V≫-5o Fig.4-lK.ZtUf^ 4≫'fr#£≪≪20km&

rtK 115^*113011 (98%) A^fttSo *&#£≪#

4.2 Distinctlarge eye

Z<D'S7->IZ, B8c££*M:§vi;fci&% Distinct

smalleye Cit^'L^^^i***;*^ < 4otv>S,

Fig.4 - 2 JCfcfU*. 24^!l^:TA54I^#ft^^50km^

4.3 Ragged eye

O*vhs, 24209* ofco Fig. 4-3 Eititf, 4>'0#

£≪≪5Olon&rtK:2410g (99%i^±) *^^Jt, 20fanJ^

rtCfcl71fif!l(71%) *5^*f-So ＼i&ttl7.5km-T*

4.4 Banding eye

'<?->? Jb.ZoFig.A-iViXtHi* 72M^:T*^

£^£≪#50km&WK:##U 390B (54%) *520kmJ^

4.5 Distinct spiralband

y K# 4≫'kti"iSKl^tSaiA^^feOT21909*S, Fig.

4 - 5 K i *U£, Banding eye ^Jrb^ff^^ > F c# §

5/7 h L"CVi*o+^#ffi≪≪50kmiJtrtK:213WI(97%)

*^*t. 20km^rtCfe64ffil (30%) &&*&?& o ＼

i^ti27.5km-C*-So

4.6 Distinct CDO

^cg^ (Central Dense Overcast) TWbfitz h c

TBSttftVi,, Fig. 4-6Einil 270B^TiJ+'iJ#

-37-

ft£#40]anJartK:$Mlrr*o ＼±^≪19.9km-r*l>0

4.7 Indistinct CDO

i^*;;B§l$&/No?~-y£vH＼ 216f!|*5o Fig. 4-7

Cifur, DistinctCDO CJt^lSlggBK^^I--So *

'L≫#ft≪≪50kmi^rtK:i88fif!l(86%) *^^"t*o ＼^

{i34.01ant**)*≪

4.8 Shear

19409a*;:c^-ycA-So Fig. 4-8 ckfUiT,

< tt5Okm&rt"C1580!l (81%) **#*&■*■*, JEC 20km

JUrtCfc370!l (19%) *5^^JL, ic≪^:^Jf*5Tl

*>M±37.lkm-?#>£,

4.9 Organized cb-cluster

+.'frtt3aEJ£0^&B!l& cb-cluster(Dh-ifih 9 , ft

*, 4M>#£^UiM≪C*§ < ^r^^rv^ Fig. 4 -

9££■&fc% 128-em(82%) *J50kmJ^I^K^*f So ＼

±Ste40.1km-C£5,,

4.10 Unorganized cb-cluster

^'C^ifiC^O^aBiJ* cb-cluster<Dfri*$> V, B

mikOZL^^f-yZ^Oo Fig. 4-10C≪tS fc.

360J i:^*i6:*5 6 +'i>#ffi≪≪ttit≪!≪JK≪HC^*

*'Crf|E£^≪50kinJJtrt≫cttl4ffi|(39%) O^^IIt^o

METEORLOGICAL SATELLITE CENTER TECHNICAL NOTE Nal7 NOVEMBER, 1988

FREQUENCY

to

30

20

10

I

0

+

I

I

I

I

I PATTERN 1 : DISTINCT SMALL EYE1 TOTAL COUNT ≫ 115

SIZE AVERAGECRADIUS) * 10.284203

STANDERD DIVIATION ･ 13.716765

10 20 50 100

.....E

SIZEC RADIUS : KM )

Fig.4―1 Distribution of area size of possible geographical position for 'DISTINCT SMALL EYE'

FREQUENCY

40

10

0 10

I PATTERN 2 : DISTINCT LARGE EYE

TOTAL COUNT ≫ 24SIZE AVERAGE(RADIUS) * 22.120850STANDERD DIVIATION m 32.123367

so

-38-

I

I

I

I

a,,,.....,,,.,.,,,.=,,ax*,:.≫...................E

100 SIZEC RADIUS : KM >20

Fig.4-2 Same as in Fig.4-1except for 'DISTINCT LARGE EYE'

L

FREQUENCY

40

20

10

FREQUENCY

40

20

10

+

+

≪ I

mfe≫M-te>*- WJlfflfe IS 17* 1988 if 11 J!

I

I

I

I

1 PATTERN 3 : RAGGED EYE

10

< I

≫ I * ≪

> I < >

< ≪ I ≫ ≪

20

+

10 20

I

< I

≪ I

< I

≫ ≪ ･ I

so

1

I

I

I

TOTAL COUNT - 242SIZE AVERAGE(RAOIUS) = 17.482712STANOERO DIVIATION ≫ 24.565857

1 PATTERN 4 : BANDING EYEI

I

I

50

-39-

SIZEC RADIUS : KM

SI2EC RADIUS : KM )

100

Fie.4-3 Same as in Fig.4-1 except for 'RAGGED EYE'

TOTAL COUNT = 72SIZE AVERAGE(RADIUS) = 19.587616STANDERD DIVIATION = 26.023788

100

Fig.4-4 Same as in Fig.4-1except for 'BANDING EYE'

-40-

METEORLOGICAL SATELLITE CENTER TECHNICAL NOTE Nal7 NOVEMBER. 1988

FREQUENCY

FREQUENCY

40

30

20

10

010

> I

> * I

≪ ･ ≫ I

≫ ≪ ･ I ≪

≪ ≪ ･ I ･

50

I

50

+

100

≫............≪....≪≪..≫≫......£

SIZEC RADIUS : KM )

I

100 S1ZEC RADIUS : KM )

Fig.4-5 Same as in Fig.4-1except for'DISTINCT SPIRAL BAND'

PATTERN 6 : DISTINCT CDOTOTAL COUNT ≫ 27SIZE AVERAGE(RADIUS) = 19.856384

STANOERO DIVIATION = 26.778915

< I

≫ I

20

Fig.4-6 Same as in Fig.4-1 except for DISTINCT CDO'

FREQUENCY

40

10

FREQUENCY

40

30

20

10

10

≪ < I

10

I

I

20

sufc≪m-tz>*- mm% mv* lms-un

PATTERN 7 : INDISTINCT CDOTOTAL COUNT - '216SIZE AVERAGE(RADIUS) ■ 34.066040STANDERD DIVIATION ≫ 44.842682

so

+

50

-41-

I

I

I

I

...........................E

SI2E( RADIUS : KH )

* *

100

Fiir.4-7 Same as in Fie.4-1 except for INDISTINCT CDO'

PATTERN 8 : SHEARTOTAL COUNT ≫ 194SIZE AVERAGE(RADIUS) ≫ 37.1O2S85STANDERD DIVIATION ≪ 56.261795

100 SIZEC RADIUS : KM

Fig.4-8 Same as in Fig.4-1 except for SHEAR'

20

METEORLOGICAL SATELLITE CENTER TECHNICAL NOTE Nal7 NOVEMBER, 1988

FREQUENCY

40

30

20

10

10

FREQUENCY

40

I

I

I

I

20

0 10

Fig 4

PATTERN 9 : ORGANIZED CB-CLUSTERTOTAL COUNT ≪ 156SIZE AVERAGE(RADIUS) = 40.096893STANDERD DIVIATION * 54.527786

50

so

-42-

I

I

100

+

SIZEC RADIUS : KM )

100 SIZEC RADIUS : KM >

≪ ≪ ≪ I

≪≪≪≪≪≪ I

20

Fie.4-9 Same as in Fig.4-1 except for ORGANIZED CB-CLUSTER'

PATTERN 10 : UNORGANIZED CB-CLUSTERTOTAL COUNT ≫ 36SIZE AVERAGE(RAOIUS) = 56.181061

'.

STANDERO DIVIATION ' 65.842560

10 Same as in Fie.4-1 except for UNORGANIZED CB-CLUSTER'

≫**≪>*- &mR£ *17* 1988#ll£

4.ii *bffl?&mR<Dmti£m

Table- 3 fc&htotzo&'S?->fcltlt&<Dtzib. 41

Table―3 Frequency distributionof area size of possible geographical positionfor the cloud patterns

^^＼ (km)CLOUDPATTBRN~-＼^^

0-10 10-20 20-50 50-100100-200 AVERAGE(km) TOTAL

1. DISTINCT SMALLm

****£≪* CODE 1

57

50* 5 648%

I1 0. 3 1 1 5

2. DISTINCT LARGE EYE+£>≪)£≫* CODE 2 A 33X

1 2

50≪2 2. 1 2 4

3. RAGGED EYEWPJ56*** CODE 2

4 5 1 2 6

525S7029X ox 1 7. 5 2 4 2

4. BANDING EYE

4"MlJ;t≪* CODE 29

12X30

3346* 1 9. 6 7 2

5. SPIRAL BANDtf*w;e≪# code 2 k 60

11% 1 4 968X & 'ox 27. 5 2 1 9

6. DISTINCT CDO*<M9]/£≪* CODE 2

415X

^

tf2 0. 0 2 7

7. INDISTINCT CDO4"MUft≫* CODE 3 2|

3 1

14X Vol &f3 4. 0 2 1 6

8. SHEAR+'£>≪£*** CODE 3

4 33

17XlM M k 37. 1 1 9 4

9. ORGANIZEDCB-CIUSTBR

*/M*e≫S CODE 3

y sy M IX

4 0. 1

1 5 6

10. UNORGANIZED

CB-CLUSTER4*≪:£≪r≪ CODE 4

1 439%

2261X

5 6. 2 3 6

TOTAL 1 32 3 6 5 6 8 3 1 1 3 7 2 8. 4 130 1

Jlfo SAREP m-cmCX V>6 ^C#!l£ffiSfcJ＼&E

d0≪fc-5*MfcbT. Sfe i < M6tiS0≪ Shear /*

Shear ^°^- Vc≪^, iA7->Ci5 *'L4'J^

fSJtti ^ - F 3 X＼Z.tiltS A RE Pm<DfflfcVitr*>b

Fig. 5KT≫Sti≪t5^l≫i&SJft!&fcO^a (Shear

pattern)cW^^t0 i^SISfc, THSKiSS

-43-

ffi(Fig.2-3. Fig.4-8) Cfc^K/t^So

Fig. 5 An example of SHEAR pattern with

distinctlow cloud vortex (GMS visibleimage

at 03 TJTC on 30 SEP 1987)

METEORLOGICAL SATELLITE CENTER TECHNICAL NOTE Nq17 NOVEMBER 1988

ZZX, gfc£>TShear s*? ―>73ffl£XiZ.-o^X*

^18M (24%) *D, Ztlt>±Xtf*<＼j&femM25＼sm

JJtrt(3-K0-1, -SB2C*fjS) C*^t^

A^fco fi!^t, B^Sg^TlS^^feo Shear^°^-

Z>Z.ttfX%Z>o

iac*c!|^SK≪i:s≪iaf0jtvifc*m-rsifcA≫T§

6. tttb

d fc*JH X.i>o

1. *'(>#≪≪≪t4≫'L"lt^S^tt. #^^->c

m s*

£c≪&££*:≪>*£*>*:!). ≫#ff£c$H^±ll

##£S*

UeilR±> 1984: GMS iz.X £^JlcfuSR# t * 0

mma^r, nmffiM,*>?~-&mm^ no.io,

15-18.

-44-