Asian Metal 5 Rare Earth Summit - allianceorg.com · NdFeB NdFeB-H NdFeB-SH NdFeB-UH NdFeB-EH...
Transcript of Asian Metal 5 Rare Earth Summit - allianceorg.com · NdFeB NdFeB-H NdFeB-SH NdFeB-UH NdFeB-EH...
RECENT HISTORY, CURRENT EVENTS AND THE FUTURE OF RARE EARTH AND
FERRITE MAGNETS
New York City 2013 Alliance LLC, by Robert Wolf
Asian Metal 5th Rare Earth Summit
Alliance LLCRobert Wolf
Introduction
I would like to begin with the slide used to end my presentation at the May 2012 Asian Metal
Conference in San Francisco
4/9/2013 Alliance LLCAlliance LLCRobert Wolf
Comments by Marc Humphries in his CRS Report for Congress September 6, 2011
“Prices of rare earth oxides and metals are rising rapidly and most rare earth
experts would agree that most recent restrictions on Chinese exports and lack of
capacity elsewhere has led to the sharp price rise. With a surge
in demand and
export restrictions it will take time for the global supply to catch up. Prices may
remain high in the short‐term but, typically, tend to fall back to the industry’s
marginal cost of production after supply increases. However, there are likely
structural shifts taking place in the global economy.
Well over half of the world’s
population is now part of emerging economies, led by China and India and
followed by Africa, South America and other parts of Asia. Their economies are
expected to grow in the coming years which could keep prices under pressure
even as new supply comes on‐stream. It is unclear where rare earth prices will
plateau because this rate of growth suggests a structural shift in demand.
Emerging economies’
growth is usually more materials‐intensive than developed
economies because of the huge materials need for new infrastructure projects”
Alliance LLCAlliance LLCRobert Wolf
The Magnet Family
Alliance LLCAlliance LLCRobert Wolf
Iron Oxide & RMB History 2007‐2013
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Iron Oxide & RMB History 2007‐2013
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From January 2010 to 2013 there has been a 66.6%
increase in the price of iron oxide
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This caused a 17% increase in the price of ferrite
magnets during this period
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However, this was the first price increase in almost 10
years
•
And was not terribly exciting to the marketplace
Alliance LLCRobert Wolf
Rare Earth Elements Used in Magnets
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Praseodymium
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Neodymium
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Samarium
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Gadolinium
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Terbium
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Dysprosium
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Magnet Material Prices per Kg 2010‐2013
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However, the raw material costs for metal magnets increased
dramatically
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Reaching their high point in mid 2011
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Dysprosium, not shown because of the scale, reached a high
point of $2200 per Kg
•
And its effect on the magnet prices can be seen in the higher
temperature grades of magnets
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Metal Prices per Kg 2010‐2013
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USD / Kg
Ni
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Robert Wolf Alliance LLC
Magnet Material Prices per Kg 2010‐2013
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USD / Kg
Alnico 5
Alnico 8
SmCo
NdFeB
NdFeB-H
NdFeB-SH
NdFeB-UH
NdFeB-EH
NdFeB-AH
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What happened next
•
The increased material costs had its effect on the price of the
magnets
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Consumers of the magnets decided it was time to return to ferrite
designs to contain the costs
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What did the motor manufacturers do?
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Manufacturers of large motors using ferrite magnets stayed with
ferrite
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Manufacturers of large wind turbine generators using neodymium
ceased production due to cost
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They could not revert to ferrite designs due to weight constraints
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Manufacturers of small motors that had converted from ferrite to
neodymium remained due to other advantages
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Motor Design Comparison
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DC Motor and Loudspeaker Magnet Comparisons
Ferrite:
Rare Earth:
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Did any customers make immediate changes from neodymium to samarium cobalt or ferrites?
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Customers tried to convert to ferrite or samarium cobalt
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Some loudspeaker customers switched from neodymium
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Some loudspeaker customers stopped purchasing
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Most customers could not make the change due to size and / or
weight constraints imposed by the end user
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As the prices declined many customers abandoned their efforts
to change designs
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What is coming next
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There has been a rush for increased mine output in areas other than China
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However the time from mine to magnets is not short
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As the rare earth prices from China continue to decline, will the new
producers be profitable and remain in the marketplace
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Recycling of materials – an ongoing effort for years but limited success.
Also recycled material has lower properties
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Development of a new magnet material – has always been a goal but does
not occur frequently or on the schedule desired by users
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Vital Component in Product development and sustainable Procurement of resources
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Material Standards to Assist in Efficient Use of Available Resources
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Environmental considerations for Selection and Use
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Material Selection Standards and Guides
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Chemical and Physical identification, Characterization and Testing
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Alternative Material Selection and Effectiveness Testing
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Recycle, Reuse, and Recapture of Materials
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Labeling and End‐of‐Life Considerations
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Classification and Terminology
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Guides for Supply Chain Management and Risk Management
Alliance LLCRobert WolfRobert Wolf Alliance LLC
Luisa Moreno: “Brace yourself for three more years of heavy rare earth shortages”
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“The supply chain needs to be developed. The mining companies
need to be talking to potential end‐users. But complete vertical
integration may not be the solution. One step at a time is a better
strategy. Develop the mine first, be able to produce a concentrate
and then learn to refine. Then continue talking to the end‐users
and alloy producers and magnet producers. Those are very complex
materials that require a lot of knowledge – some of them are
patented protected as well”
•
“End – users downstream and miners upstream will gradually meet
halfway for the development of a supply chain”
Alliance LLCRobert WolfRobert Wolf Alliance LLC
Bibliography
•
Permanent Magnet Economics, R.E.Wolf, presentation
at Magnetics Conference, April 2009•
Magnet Pricing Global Causes & Effects, R.E.Wolf,
presentation at Magnetics Conference, 2008•
Fundamentals of Permanent Magnets, R.E.Wolf,
presentation 2003•
Is there a Rare Earth Crisis? R.E.Wolf, presentation at
Asian Metal Conference, May 2012•
Private communications with producers and
•
The Gold Report interview with Luisa Moreno and Brian
Sylvester 4/30/2013
Alliance LLCRobert Wolf