One Community

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Energy

ASEAN Energy Policy towards Low Carbon Society

28th Clean Coal Day International Symposium9 September 2019

Tokyo, Japan

Presented by:Christopher G. ZamoraManager of ASEAN Plan of Action For Energy Cooperation (APAEC) Programme

1.Introduction of ACE

2. ASEAN Energy Landscape

3. APAEC 2016-2025

4. Key Directions for Coal and CCT

towards Low Carbon Society

Table of Content

One Community

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EnergyAbout the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE)

Think Tank

Identifying and surfacing innovative

solutions

Catalyst

Secretariat

Unify and strengthen ASEAN Energy Cooperation

and Integration

APAEC Activities, including with

DPs/IOs

Energy Data and Knowledge Hub

Provide a knowledge depository for AMS

Policy and Research Analytics

Energy Database

Research, publication, training, capacity building, workshop, policy exchange and recommendations, etc.

Policies, Legal & Regulatory Frameworks

and Technologies

Introduction

ASEAN Energy Landscape

4

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0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

Base year BAU ATS APS

2017 2040

Mto

e

Traditional Biomass

Other Renewables

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)

648

1450

Source: AEDS 2019 & AEO5

1250

1123

➢ TPES to grow (2040):➢ BAU – 2.3 X➢ ATS - 2.0 X ( 14%)➢ APS - 1.8 X ( 23%)

2.2 x

1.9 x

1.7 x

BAU- Business as UsualATS - AMS Targets ScenarioAPS- ASEAN Progressive Scenario

(target defined the APAEC )

One Community

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EnergyTOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

0,00

200,00

400,00

600,00

800,00

1000,00

1200,00

2017 BAU ATS APSM

toe

Others

Electricity and Heat

Biomass

Biofuels

Oil (Crude Oil +Petroleum Products)

Natural Gas

Coal

Source: AEDS 2019 & AEO52040

501

1046

856

771

2.0 x

1.7 x

1.5 x

BRN*0% CAM

1%

INA*36%

LAO1%MAS

13%MYN4%

PHI8%

SIN*3%

THI20%

VNM14%

2017 - TFEC by Country

* 2017 data still need to be verified

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-

50.000,0

100.000,0

150.000,0

200.000,0

250.000,0

300.000,0

350.000,0

400.000,0

2005 2017 2005 2017 2005 2017

Oil (Crude Oil + OilProducts)

Natural Gas Coal

kto

e

Imported Fossil Fuels

2005 2017 2005 2017 2005 2017

Oil (Crude Oil + OilProducts)

Natural Gas Coal

Production of Fossil Fuels

VNM

THI

SIN

PHI

MYN

MAS

LAO

INA

CAM

BRN

➢ ASEAN highly dependence on imported oil.

➢ Imported Oil, Gas and Coal had increased 40 %, 93 % and 265 % from 2005 to 2017.

➢ Coal production in Indonesia had tripled over 12 years.

➢ Natural gas production increasing came from Thailand and Myanmar.

➢ Brunei and Indonesia reduced theiroil production during the period.

One Community

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EnergySelf-sufficiency (% of TPES)

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

Mto

e

Mto

e

Production - Oil Production - Gas Production - Coal

TPES-Coal TPES-Oil TPES-Natural Gas

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0

50

100

150

200

250

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

GW

Biomass

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

Hydro

Gas

Oil

Coal

ASEAN Installed Capacities (GW) – Fuel Mix Diversity

Renewable Energy has been increasing steadily over the years, growing about five times from 2005 to 2017 in power sector capacities,

Meanwhile, Fossil Fuel increase around 1.5 times over the same period.

Compound Annual Growth Rate

CAGR

13.1%

26.4%

77%

2%

7%

113

230

3.4%

1%

9%

RE

Fossil Fuel

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➢ Electricity Growth 4.6 % over APAEC period;

➢ BAU, the fossil fuel % will reduce from

74 % in 2018 to

✓ 71 % in 2025 and

✓ 70 % in 2040

➢ ASEAN Target Scenario (ATS), fossil fuel %

✓ 59 % in 2025 and

✓ 57 % in 2040

➢ Advanced Policy Scenario (APS) fossil fuel %

✓ 52 % in 2025 and

✓ 44 % in 2040

Installed Capacity Projection by Type of Fuel (GW)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

20

15

20

18

BA

U

ATS

AP

S

BA

U

ATS

AP

S

BA

U

ATS

AP

S

2025 2030 2040

GW

Biomass

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Oil

Coal

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Energy

87

17021

58

ASEAN Power sector capacities (GW)

Fossil Fuel Renewable

In 2017, around 60 million are NOT electrified

ASEAN – Access to electricity(%)

two-fold increase

Nearly three-foldrise

Electricity Consumption

1,502 kWh/cap

( World avg. 3,200 )

2005 2017

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12,6%

19,6%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

Projected RE Shares (%) in TPES

23%

APS

ATS

BAU

CAGR = 2.02%

**Geothermal, Large Hydro, Biofuels, Modern Biomass, Other renewable (solar, wind, biogas, other RE)

APAEC target 23% in 2025

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-3,2%

-7,2%

-9,2%-10,6%-11,0%-11,5%

-13,5%

-16,0%-17,4%

-17,9%

-20,5%

-24,0%

-2,0%

-2,3%

-5,1%-4,7%-6,2%

-5,2%-6,1%

-11,5%-13,1%

-15,1%

-17,1%-16,5%

-30,0%

-25,0%

-20,0%

-15,0%

-10,0%

-5,0%

0,0%

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

MTO

E/ G

DP

PP

P U

S$ C

ON

S 2

00

5

EI (TPES) reduction from 2005 level %

EI (TFEC) reduction from 2005 level %

Energy Intensity: 2005 to 2017

APAEC Target:reduce energy intensity (EI) by 20% in 2020 has been achieved.

AMS is on progress to further reduce the regional EI by 30% in 2025.

ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC)

2016 – 2025

14

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ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC ) 2016-2025: Phase I 2016 - 2020

“Enhancing Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to Achieve Energy Security, Accessibility, Affordability and Sustainability for All”

ASEAN Power Grid

Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline

Renewable Energy

Regional Energy Policy and Planning

Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Clean Coal Technology

Civilian Nuclear Energy

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16

APAEC 2016-2025 supports Sustainable Development Goals 7

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Key Strategies of Seven Programme Areas

To initiate multilateral electricity trade in at least one sub-region by 2018.0

1 A

SEA

N P

ow

er

Gri

d

To enhance connectivityfor energy security and accessibility via pipelines and regasification terminals.

02

Tra

ns-

ASE

AN

G

as P

ipel

ine

To enhance the image of coal through promotion of clean coal technologies (CCT).

03

Cle

an C

oal

Te

chn

olo

gy

To reduce energy intensity by 20% in 2020 based on 2005 level.

04

En

ergy

Eff

icie

ncy

an

d C

on

serv

atio

n

To increase the component of RE to 23% by 2025 in ASEAN energy Mix.

05

Ren

ewab

le

Ener

gy

To better profile the energy sector internationally

06

Reg

ion

al E

ner

gy

Polic

y an

d P

lan

nin

g To build capabilities in policy, technology and regulatory aspects of nuclear energy

07

Civ

ilian

Nu

clea

r En

ergy

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ASEAN Power Grid

ASEAN Power Grid

Accelerate the development and completion of the ASEAN Power Grid Projects by 2020.

Initiate multilateral electricity trading.

• Conduct a study and identify areas where indigenous resources can be fully utilised to benefit the region.

• Conduct a study on the ASEAN Primary Energy Resources for Power Generation.

• Lao – Thailand –Malaysia -Singapore Power Integration Project (LTMS - PIP)

• Study to address barriers to interconnections, cross-border trade and investment

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19

Trans-ASEAN Gas PipelineTrans-ASEAN Gas

Pipeline

Enhance gas & LNG connectivity via pipeline

and regasification terminals.

Enhance gas & LNG accessibility via pipeline

and regasification terminals.

• Develop at least one (1) new LNG regasification terminal or a cross border gas pipeline by 2020.

• Implement open access system by at least one (1) AMS by 2020 and Develop Technical Database on ASEAN Gas Infrastructure.

• Establish a standard clause for LNG cargo diversion and destination flexibilityfor ASEAN LNG Contracts.

• Establish a manual and procedures for the operationalisation of APSA/CERM.

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Coal and Clean Coal Technology

• ASEAN Coal Awards• Capacity Building

Workshops• Feasibility Study on

CCT

• Workshop on Coal Image

• Workshop on CSR Best Practice

• ASEAN Coal Business Roundtable

• CCT Business & Financing Model

• CCT Demonstration Project

• Joint Policy Research on Coal

• Human Capacity Building

• ASEAN CoE• High Level Policy

Discussion

• ACDIS Data Submission

• ACDIS Training• ACDIS

Statistical Monitor

To address the environmental issues from coal production and utilisation in ASEAN and to enhance the image of coal through promotion of clean coal technologies (CCT).

Public Awareness on Coal Benefits

OBS 2

ACDISOBS 5

CCT PromotionOBS 1

Intra-ASEAN Coal Trade Promotion and

InvestmentOBS 3

Policy ResearchOBS 4

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21

Energy Efficiency and Conservation

21

EE S&LHarmonisation

EE Finance Mechanism

Private Sector Participation/

ESCO

Green Building Code

Outcome Based

Strategies

Action Plans

❑ Regional policy and roadmap for MEPS ❑ National Policy & roadmap

for MEPS ❑ Awareness raising

programme

Action Plans

❑ Establish network of FIs ❑ Financing Training❑ Pilot Projects ❑ Guidelines on EE financing ❑ Implementation of EE

financing projects

Action Plans

❑Create more opportunities for private sector

❑Capacity Building ❑ASEAN Energy Awards

Action Plans

❑Review of international experience on GBC

❑Guideline of GBC❑ Capacity building

to reduce energy intensity (EI) by 20% in 2020 based on 2005 level.

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22

Renewable Energy

xx

Increase the component of RE to 23% by 2025

Enhance awareness on the role of renewable

energy

Commercial development and

utilisation of biofuels

R&D network on RE Technology

RE Financing

• Enhance and implement RE policy and targets.

• ASEAN RE Roadmap

• Develop a nodal network

• RE-Hub• High Level

Policy Dialogue• Annual

Technical Training

• Develop a RE Financing nodal network

• Guideline of Re support Mechanism for Bankable Projects

• Annual Training on RE Financing

• R&D on Biofuels• Market Studies

for Biofuel Commercial

• R&D Nodal Network

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Regional Energy Policy and Planning

To better profile ASEAN’s energy sector

internationally

Raise the level of data and analysis on

ASEAN’s energy policy and planning.

Strengthen collaboration with DPs and IOs.

Effectively manage the implementation of the APAEC 2016-2025.

Strengthen resilience and emergency preparedness in energy infrastructure/facilities to mitigate the impact of climate change and natural disasters

• ASEAN Energy Cooperation Publication

• ASEAN Energy Outlook• ASEAN Energy Statistics

• Energy Policy & Planning Workshop

• Data Analysis Training• Secondment opportunity

• AEBF• Joint Study with IOs• MoU/Agreement with IOs

• Emergency Preparedness Workshop

• vulnerability assessment of energy infrastructure/facilities Training

• Monitor and Evaluate APAEC Progress

• MTR• APAEC Phase II

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24

Civilian Nuclear Energy

Capacity Building on Nuclear Energy Regulatory

Framework and Nuclear Safety

Improve Public Understanding on Nuclear

Energy

Strengthen Regional Cooperation on Nuclear

• Regional nuclear safety framework, public acceptance and emergency response activity

• international nuclear institutions study visits

• Technical study on nuclear safety and enhance capacity on emergency planning exercises

• Public education to raise awareness on Nuclear Energy as Alternative Energy Options.

• Regional public communication strategies

• study on the potential regional nuclear energy arrangements.

• portal of nuclear communities and database on nuclear

Key Directions for Coal and Clean Coal Technologies towards Low Carbon Society

25

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Growing Role of Coal in ASEANCoal – Production vs. Requirements

ASEAN will have a surplus of coal until 2040.

Source: AEO5

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CFPP Installed Capacity in GW by Country

• ASEAN will double their CFPP installed capacity by 2025.

• Major contributors to capacity additions are expected from Indonesia and Vietnam.

• Notable contributions are also expected from Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand.

Sources: 16th AFOC Council Meeting Country Reports & AEO5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Vietnam

GW

Country

ASEAN CFPP Installed Capacity by Country

2015 2020 2025 2030

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ASEAN move towards utilisation of Clean Coal Technology

2017 2030

• Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are planning to build their new CFPP with CCT (Supercritical & USC)

• Application of CCT will increase significantly from 8% to 31% in 2030• There is around 27% of the planned capacity have not yet decided the technology choices

Sources: 16th AFOC Council Meeting Country Reports & Country’s PDP

92%

3%

5%

58%

17%

25%

0,0%

Subcritical

Supercritical

USC

Others

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Indonesia is the first developer of Supercritical, while Malaysia is the first developer of USC

• From 2018 to 2030, there will be additional 15 GW of Supercritical and 21 GW of USC CFPP

• In 2018, Indonesia has installed 3,409 MW Supercritical CFPP and will have the first 2,000 MW USC CFPP in 2020

• Malaysia already has 3,100 MW USC CFPP and will add 2,000 MW in 2019.

Sources: 16th AFOC Council Meeting Country Reports & Country’s PDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2027 2028 2029 2030

GW

Year

ASEAN CFPP Planned Installed Capacity by Technology (2017 - 2030)

Subcritical Supercritical USC

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30

The various coal-fuelled power generation technologies are the lowest cost option available for mass deployment

Sources: ASEAN Energy Equation, 2017

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31

Investment in CFPP Required to Reduce Emission

Sources: ASEAN Energy Equation, 2017

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32

Coal and Clean Coal Technology

• ASEAN Coal Awards• Capacity Building

Workshops• Feasibility Study on

CCT

• Workshop on Coal Image

• Workshop on CSR Best Practice

• ASEAN Coal Business Roundtable

• CCT Business & Financing Model

• CCT Demonstration Project

• Joint Policy Research on Coal

• Human Capacity Building

• ASEAN CoE• High Level Policy

Discussion

• ACDIS Data Submission

• ACDIS Training• ACDIS

Statistical Monitor

To address the environmental issues from coal production and utilisation in ASEAN and to enhance the image of coal through promotion of clean coal technologies (CCT).

Public Awareness on Coal Benefits

OBS 2

ACDISOBS 5

CCT PromotionOBS 1

Intra-ASEAN Coal Trade Promotion and

InvestmentOBS 3

Policy ResearchOBS 4

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ASEAN Coal Awards

Objectives

• To promote cleaner and economical utilisation of coal• To improve the general perception/image of coal• To disseminate best practices in the coal sector• To increase public awareness on Clean Coal Technology

(CCT)

• Biennial event jointly by ACE and AFOC.• BOJ evaluates and selects winners• In 2015, 21 entries, 18 winners• In 2017, 21 entries, 17 winners• In 2019, 24 entries, 18 winners• The next awards is in 2021

Background & Updates

1. Coal Mining2. CCT Utilisation3. Coal Distribution4. CSR5. Special Submission

Awards Categories

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Capacity Building

AFOC CCT Workshop 2018 in Lao PDR

Recommended to establish ASEAN Emission Standard

Recommended to develop regional strategies on public acceptance for coal-fired power plants

Recommended to the AMS to influence policymakers on the importance of tax policy stability through high-level policy dialogues.

Workshop on Enhanced Coal Image and CSR Best Practices in Thailand

Recommended to set up and develop emission standard for CFPP.

Recommended to develop prepare the CCS Road Map for ASEAN.

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EnergyJoint Study ACE-JCOAL

Joint Study between ACE – JCOAL in cooperation with AFOC

Provide a deeper insight and updated information on the status and plans on opportunities for the deployment of CCT.

Best practices and trends in CCT application and development in Japan

ASEAN Clean Coal Technology Handbook for Power Plants, Ver 2.

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Provides comprehensive analysis for the energy security and sustainable development opportunities from CCT

Insights from the report provided framework for the “Call to Action” :

• ASEAN Should reaffirm the regional strategies for CCT

• ASEAN should support the transition away from the least efficient technology in favourof HELE coal.

• AMS call on international community to provide support for the deployment of CCT

Joint Study ACE-WCAASEAN’s Energy Equation: the role of low emission coal in driving a sustainable energy future (ACE -WCA)

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ASEAN Coal Centre of Excellence

• Centre for support the R&D,technology transfer, pilot project,and capacity building for Clean CoalUtilisation Technologies in ASEAN

• To be equipped with the pilotplants and laboratories of coalutilization technologies.

Location: Palimanan, West Java, Indonesia

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Cleaner Coal Utilisation Roadmap

Source: Study on Cleaner Coal Utilisation Roadmap in AMS, 2019

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ASEAN’s Future Strategic Directions for Coal

• Fuel diversification policy• System ability to cope with rising electricity demand• Regional coal trade policy• Coal prices

• Regional policy for deployment of CCT (technology shift to USC, LRC upgrading, CCS, fuel blending, Coal Gasification)

• Accessibility and affordability of energy supply• Coal as one of solutions to rural electrification• Multilateral electricity trading and integration

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40

Achieving ASEAN Economic Community Goals

Sustainability

Energy Security

AffordabilityAccessibility

-Balanced Energy Mix

-Reduced dependency on imported fuels/Enhanced self sufficiency Ratio in the AMS

-Resilient energy infrastructures

-Single ASEAN Energy Market established (integration in connectivity)

-Energy Prices rationalised

-Integrated energy systems

-Multilateral Electricity Trading and integration

-High level of rural electrification ratio achieved

-Energy intelligence & grid decentralization

-Open access system for LNG connectivity

Guiding Theme:i. increasing trade and

investment ii. integrating micro, small and

medium enterprises(MSMEs) in the Digital Economy

iii. developing an innovation-driven economy.

- infrastructures development & Standards & Labelling

- Technical Standard Harmonisation and elimination of trade barriers - Mutual Recognition Arrangement &

MVE

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To know more about the latest ACE Publications, those are available for download from http://www.aseanenergy.org/resources/publications

For further information or to provide feedback, please contact ACE at secretariat@aseanenergy.org

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