Septia Buntara Supendi APAEC Department ASEAN+3 Energy Security Forum Thailand, 29 March 2018

ASEAN Energy Trends: Fossil Fuel

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Energy

DISCLAIMER

The views, opinions, and information expressed in this presentation were compiled from sources believed to be reliable for information and sharing purposes only, and are solely those of the presenter; do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) and/or the ASEAN Member States. Any use of this presentation’s content should be by ACE’s permission.

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Contents

About ACE

Total Primary Energy Supply

Power Generation Capacity

Fossil Fuel Production

Energy Security Challenges

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About ACE

Think Tank

• Identifying and surfacing innovative solutions

Catalyst

• Unify and strengthen ASEAN Energy Cooperation and Integration

Data and Knowledge Hub

• Provide a knowledge depository for AMS

ASEAN Power Grid

Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline

Coal and Clean Coal Technology

Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Renewable Energy

Regional Energy Policy and Planning

Civilian Nuclear Energy

APAEC

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The launch of the 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook with the Philippine Secretary of Energy, Alfonso G. Cusi, 28 September 2017.

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Total Primary Energy Supply

& Power

Generation

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Indonesia 38%

Malaysia 12%

Philippines 9%

Thailand 20%

Vietnam 13%

Rest of ASEAN 8%

2025

916 MTOE

Total Primary Energy Supply - Country Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam account for more than 90%

of energy share in the region.

Indonesia 35%

Malaysia 14% Philippines

9%

Thailand 22%

Vietnam 11%

Rest of ASEAN

9%

2015

627 MTOE

Indonesia 37%

Malaysia 14%

Philippines 9%

Thailand 21%

Vietnam 9%

Rest of ASEAN

10%

2005

455 MTOE

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Total Primary Energy Supply - Fuel

Considerably increased, but substantial savings can be achieved.

In all scenarios, oil still has the largest share, followed by coal in BAU and ATS, but RE in APS.

Some rural and remote areas are still relying on traditional biomass.

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Power Generation Capacity

Increasing electrification ratio and wealth will lead to a strong increase for capacity.

Enhanced energy efficiency is expected to lower the capacity requirements.

In all scenarios, the share of oil and gas continue to decline, replaced by coal and RE.

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Fossil Fuel Production

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ASEAN Coal Production

Indonesia produces nearly 90% of ASEAN’s coal while Vietnam produces only 7%.

ASEAN will see a slight increase of coal production in 2016-2040 due to Indonesia’s plan to cap its coal production at 400 million tonnes per year, starting in 2019, according to Indonesia’s new Energy Plan (RUEN).

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Coal Production vs Requirements

ASEAN will have a surplus of coal during the projection period.

Around 25 Million tonnes of coal will be available for exports in 2040. However, improved EE and RE will lead to a substantially reduced coal demand.

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Oil and Gas Production

ASEAN is a major producer oil and natural gas.

For the projection period 2015-2040, oil and natural gas show a decreasing trend.

Significant additional import of crude oil will be required; ASEAN will be a net importer of gas in around 2025.

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Energy Security

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Energy Security Challenges

Region remains a net exporter of coal but rising demand affects capability to export and generate economic value.

Dependency on natural gas import increases; with limited pipeline options, ASEAN will rely on LNG.

Significant additional imports of oil will be required, as demand for oil surpasses refining capacity.

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Reserves to Production Ratio

Reserves to production ratio (R/P) indicates the years until the reserves would be depleted if no additional resources are discovered.

With abundant reserves, coal is expected to deplete only in 60 years. If no new reserves are added, the depletion of gas reserves in ASEAN can be anticipated within the next few decades, while oil reserves in ASEAN will deplete within the next four decades.

REPORT CITATION ACE (2017). The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO5). ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), Jakarta. This report is available for download from www.aseanenergy.org/publications For further information or to provide feedback, please contact ACE at secretariat@aseanenergy.org

@aseanenergy

@ASEAN_energy

Thank You!