Arctic ROOS contributions

Tapani Stipa, Ari Seinä, Seppo Kaitala (FIMR)

Timo Vihma (FMI)

Why ice related services are required?

The Baltic Sea:Heavy marine traffic (largest of ice covered seas in Word)

• Annual 600-700 million tons (of which 40% during winter months)

• Any time 2000 larger vessels are sailing in Baltic Sea

• >90% of ships with timetablesIce navigation obligatoryIce plays a role up to 6 monthsmarine transportation growing 2-5% a year => 30-40% in 10 yearsFinland:

• Annual marine transport 95 million tons of goods (2004), of which

• ~40 mil. tons in winter months with >25 000 port calls

• 8 icebreakers

© Finnish Institute of Marine Research, 2006

• 1975 31 mil.tons => 2004 95 mil.tons• Average growth 3-4%/year • 1995-2004 growth 34%• By 2015 133-148 mil. tons/year

0

20

40

60

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1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

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2005

2010

2015

Mil

l. t

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4%

3%

Growth scenarios: Marine transportation growth- Finland

•2015 => 800-1000 mil. tons

•Oil transportation from Russia:

•>100 mil. tons in 2005

•>200 mil. tons in 2010

•>400 mil. tons in 2015

Marine transportation growth- Baltic Sea

Latest forecast: by 2015 about 1 B tons!

© Finnish Institute of Marine Research, 2006

SEA ICE MONITORING & INFORMATION TO USERS AT SEA

Sat. image and traffic conditions

High res. ice thickness

chart High res. satellite image

Ice deformation chart

Routine ice chart

Ice forecasts

© Finnish Institute of Marine Research, 2006

High-Resolution Ice Thickness Charts over the Baltic Sea

• Ice thickness chart is based on SAR and ground truth.

• Spatial resolution 500 by 500m= product for ships and in ships’ scale.

• End users: shipping

• Motivation easy to use: Growth of marine transportation =>Risk of hazards is growing. Unexperienced crew. Time-lines of ships

• Published when SAR data available (about 250 charts in ice season 2005-06, 200 in 2006-07). In 30 min after SAR data is downloaded

• Future: should be aware of availability and in use of all shipping in the Baltic Sea© Finnish Institute of Marine Research, 2006

Operationally available at: http://polarview.fimr.fi

© Finnish Institute of Marine Research, 2006

Ice forecasts over the Baltic Sea• Covering the Baltic Sea

• End users: shipping

• +45 h in 3 h steps

• resolution 1 nautical mile

• 6 parametres:

– ice concentration and drift

– ice ridge thickness

– ice ridge concentration

– compress region

– deformed ice fraction

– mean ice thickness

• published once a day

• Future: expand of forecast up to 10 days. Should be aware of availability and in use of all shipping in the Baltic Sea

© Finnish Institute of Marine Research, 2006

Ecological model

1) 2)

3)4)

Distribution of 1)Diatoms, 2) NO3, 3) PO4 and 4) SIO2 at depth 5 m 1 May 1983

Diatoms NO3

PO4 SIO2

mmol/m³

mmol/m³ mmol/m³

Time -depth temperature profiles

Basin

Kandalaksha Bay

Dvina Bay

Onega Bay

Diatoms, SiO2 and SiDetr at Lat 66:43, Long 34:13

1991-1992 Diatoms1984-1992 Diatoms

1984-1992 SiO2 1984-1992 SiDetr

Finnish Meteorological Institute Arctic activities relevant for

EuroGOOS Arctic Task TeamTimo Vihma

1. Research activities in DAMOCLES (Developing Arctic Modelling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental

Studies)FMI is leading DAMOCLES WP2: Atmosphere, which has the following tasks:Arctic cyclonesOperationally important aspects: Detection of mesoscale cyclones:

- high-resolution buoy network (to be deployed by the University of Hamburg)- utilization of AMSU-B data on total water vapour and cloud water content to help detecting Polar lows

Impact of cyclones on sea ice driftb) Boundary layer turbulence Stably-stratified ABL over sea ice; wind forcing on sea ice drift Localized convection over leadsc) Clouds, adiative fluxes and surface albedo

2. Numerical Weather Prediction including Arctic and sub-Arctic regionsFMI is running the reference version and a meso-β version of HIRLAM:

Plans for joint Nordic production of numerical weather prediction

Summary of contributionFIMR + FMI

•Long expertise in viable sea ice service•Arctic atmospheric modelling and parameterisation expertise•Experience in operational ecological modelling•Established system for operational biological observations and assessment•Funding being searched for participation in Arctic Buoy Program and improved interpretation of SAR data in the Arctic

Activities 2007

•Participation DAMOCLES (sea-ice measurement campaign in drifting ice station Tara & R/V Lance.•Participation of LOMROG and ARK-XXII/2 •DAMOCLES instrumentation dev. packageIce service•Provided operational Baltic Sea ice charts (about 170)•Provided operational ice forecasts over Baltic Sea (about 145)•Provided operational ice thickness charts (about 200)•Field campaign in March with main interest of ice thickness•Arctic remote sensing development for ice monitoring

2008•Participation of CryoSat-2 CAL/VAL campaign•Participation of Polar View•Operational outputs to IPY Ice Logistics Portal•Study of X Band SAR for ice parametres•Under-ice glider experiment under DAMOCLES

Major projects•DAMOCLES•ESA CryoSat-2 CAL/VAL•MyOcean•Polar View•EUR-OCEANS