Anthropogenic Factors of Climate Change• Use data from Fifth IPCC report (2013)• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• Produced reports in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007• 5th finalized in 2013

• Consensus view of the climate community • (100s of authors)

• 3 working groups:• Physical Science Basis• Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability•Mitigation of Climate Change

(Summary for Policymakers)

View anthropogenic factors as radiative forcing agents:• How does each factor change the radiation

balance at the top of atmosphere in Wm-2 ?

1. CO2Largest single positive radiative forcing agentRadiative forcing in 2011 compared to 1750:

1.68 Wm-2

(compared to 1750, increase in CO2 by itself would lead to a radiation imbalance of 1.68)

IPCC

2. Methane (CH4)forcing = 0.97 Wm -2

3. Halocarbons (partially halogenated organic compounds)

forcing = 0.18

4. Nitrous oxide forcing = 0.17

Total RF from well-mixed gg = 3 Wm-2

Short-lived gasesCarbon monoxide (CO) RF = + 0.23

Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) (benzene, ethanol, etc) RF = + 0.10

Nitrous oxides (NOx) RF = - 0.15.Total = + 0.18

Aerosols (also short-lived)• Except for black carbon (soot from fossil fuel burning)

they are negative forcing agents:• Net negative RF = - 0.27

• Direct and indirect effects:• Direct: aerosols absorb and scatter solar and longwave

radiation

• Indirect: aerosols act as condensation nuclei for clouds:• Adds additional negative RF of -0.55

• Great uncertainty IPCC

Land Use Changes• Overgrazing and forest clearance : increase

albedo

• Deforestation and biomass burning increase CO2

• Net negative RF = -0.15

• Positive forcings are countered by negative forcings • especially due to aerosols.

• Lowering total net anthropogenic forcing to + 2.29 Wm -2

• Uncertainty is due to uncertainty in aerosol effects

IPCC Conclusion re: RF• The total anthropogenic RF for 2011 relative

to 1750 is 2.29 [1.13 to 3.33] W m −2

• has increased more rapidly since 1970 than during prior decades.

• 43% higher than that reported in IPCC 4th Report for the year 2005.

• caused by a combination of continued growth in most greenhouse gases

• concentrations and improved estimates of RF by aerosols indicating a weaker net cooling effect

IPCC summary of past Century effects• page

GCMs• General Circulation Models• Atmospheric Ocean GCMs (AOGCMs)

• Modeling groups worldwide have developed GCMs

• IPCC assesses impacts of projected increases in gg and consequences for 21st Century

Models have become increasingly sophisticated since first IPCC report in 1990 • New models use range of gg emission scenarios (RCPs : Representative Concentration Pathways)• GG concentration trajectories

• RCPs used in Fifth report (2013):2100 RF relative to 1750

Mitigation scenario

21st Century climate policies

RCP2.6 2.6 Very low forcing level

RF peaks and declines

RCP4.5 4.5 stabilization

RF stabilizes by 2100

RCP6.0 6.0 stabilization

RF doesn’t peak by 2100

RCP8.5 8.5 Very high GG forcing

RF doesn’t peak by 2100

Model results:A. Temperature1. Global surface temperature change for the

end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900

(likely to exceed 2°C )

2. Warming will continue beyond 2100

3. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform

4. The global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the range of 0.3°C to 0.7°C

larger in the tropics and subtropics

5. Increase of global mean surface temperatures for 2081–2100 (late 21st Century) relative to 1986–2005 is projected to likely be

0.3°C to 1.7°C 1.1°C to 2.6°C 1.4°C to 3.1°C 2.6°C to 4.8°C

19 year periods

Different RCPs

6. Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global mean

7. warming over land will be larger than over the ocean

8. virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land areas

9. very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency and duration. Occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur IPCC

B. Water Cycle • “Changes in the global water cycle in

response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions”

1. high latitudes and the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to experience an increase in annual mean precipitation by the end of 21st century

2. mid-latitude and subtropical dry regions, mean ppt will likely decrease

3. mid-latitude wet regions, mean ppt will likely increase

4. Extreme precipitation events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent

5. likely that the area encompassed by monsoon systems will increase over the 21st century.

(While monsoon winds are likely to weaken, monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify )

6. high confidence that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific

IPCC

C. Ocean• “global ocean will continue to warm during the

21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation”.

1. strongest ocean warming is projected for the surface in tropical and Northern Hemisphere subtropical regions.

warming in the top 100 meters: 0.6°C to 2.0°C

2. At greater depth the warming will be most pronounced in the Southern Ocean.

1000 m 0.3°C to 0.6°C

3. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken over the 21st century.

some decline in the AMOC by about

2050

(It is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo collapse in the 21st century. However, a collapse beyond the 21st century for large sustained warming cannot be excluded)

D. Cryosphere• “very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will

continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will further decrease”.

1. Year-round reductions in Arctic sea ice extent are projected by the end of the 21st century

43% to 94% in September and from 8% to 34% in February

2. a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in September before mid-century is likely (in one RCP)

3. In Antarctic, a decrease in sea ice extent and volume is projected with low confidence for the end of the 21st century

4. end of the 21st century: global glacier volume (excluding periphery of Antarctica) decrease by

15 to 55% 35 to 85%

5. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover is projected to decrease by 7% - 25%

6. permafrost (upper 3.5 m) extent at high northern latitudes will be reduced is projected to decrease by between 37% to 81%

E. Sea Level“Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets”

1. Global mean sea level rise for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the ranges of

0.26 to 0.55 m 0.32 to 0.63 m 0.33 to 0.63 m 0.45 to 0.82 m

2. thermal expansion accounts for 30 to 55% of 21st century global mean sea level rise, and glaciers for 15 to 35%.

(The increase in surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet will exceed the increase in snowfall, leading to a positive contribution to

future sea level )

(increase in snowfall on the Antarctic ice sheet is expected resulting in a negative contribution to future sea level )Changes from both ice sheets combined :

0.03 to 0.20 m by 2081−2100 IPCC

3. Sea level rise will not be uniform. By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the ocean area.

70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience sea level change

F. Carbon Cycle“Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification”

1. feedback between climate and the carbon cycle is positive in the 21st century

climate change will partially offset increases in land and ocean carbon sinks caused by rising atmospheric CO2. More of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 will remain in the atmosphere.

2. global increase in ocean acidification for all RCP scenarios. decrease in surface ocean pH by end of 21st century :• 0.06 to 0.07 • 0.14 to 0.15 • 0.20 to 0.21 • 0.30 to 0.32

IPCC

3. By 2050, annual CO2 emissions (derived from Earth System Models):

smaller than 1990 emissions (by 14 to 96%).

By the end of 21st century, about half of the models infer emissions slightly above zero, while the other half infer a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.

G. Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility “Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2 “

1. Cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global mean surface temperature response are linearly related.

Limiting the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone to less than 2°C (since 1861–1880) will require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between

0 and 1570 GtC 0 and 1210 GtC 0 and 1000 GtC since that period

515 was already emitted by 2011

2. large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scaleSurface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries.

15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. IPCC

• IPCC video