1. 1. Crisis, climate change, conflict or commercialization? The future of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa Andy Catley September 2010
2. 2. Dominant narratives, 2010
   • Pastoralism in crisis(again)
   • Unprecedented evidence that climate change drives pastoralist vulnerability
   • Destitution, food aid, safety nets
   • The settlement narrative (still) especially government
   • Conflict, counter-insurgency, counter terrorism
   • Quiet narratives, 2010
   • Histories of pastoralism elsewhere (N Africa, Middle East)
   • Human population growth
   • Growing commercialization of livestock production & trade, and benefits by wealth group
   • Land policy
3. 3. History lessons
   • Pastoralist areas rarely absorb excess people. Excess people are sloughed off - pushed out of pastoralism and pastoralist areas
   • Commercialization and shifting livestock ownership from poor to rich
   • • • Especially high export areas (Somalia, parts of Ethiopia and Sudan)
   • • • Displacement processes e.g. Somali central rangeland, from 1980s
   • Declining access to rangeland e.g.
   • • • Private enclosure
   • • • Commercial (subsidized) irrigation
   • • • Bush encroachment
   • • • Farmers
   • Pastoralism survives in a more commercialized form larger herds (units) owed by fewer people cf. trends in agriculture elsewhere
4. 4. Trend analysis, from 1922
   • Changes
   • Human population doubling every 25-35 years
   • Decreasing access to productive rangeland
   • • - bush encroachment
   • • cultivation
   • • internal borders
   • Commercialization of pastoralism livestock assets from poor to wealthier groups
   • OutcomesIncreasing impact of dry seasons and drought
   • Constants
   • Rainfall variability
   • Conflict
   Land policies People moving up People moving out
5. 5. Trends Somaliland, 1922 to 2009
6. 6. Policy implications
   • Livestock exports for poverty reduction,but benefits mainly wealthier herders, traders etc.
   • Safety nets and the economic logic of retaining increasing numbers of destitute/poor in drylands
   • Alternative livelihoods for a few, but limited non-livestock economic opportunities for most
   • Education