Analyzing & Developing CHP Projects · Analyzing & Developing CHP Projects June 27, 2017 Dr. Jay...
-
Upload
phungkhanh -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
4
Transcript of Analyzing & Developing CHP Projects · Analyzing & Developing CHP Projects June 27, 2017 Dr. Jay...
Analyzing & Developing CHP
Projects June 27, 2017
usa.siemens.com Dr. Jay Balasubramanian, Operations Manager, Distributed Energy Systems
Agenda
Qualifying A CHP Project
CHP Development Pathway
Analyzing & Developing Opportunities
Economic Value and Considerations
Siemens Products & Services for CHP Applications
Q & A
Economics, Thermal Loads & Site Conditions Primary
Considerations For Qualifying Cogen Opportunities
Electricity and Fuel Costs
• Do they pay more than $0.07/kWh for
electricity and/or less than $6/MMBtu?
• Are they located in a de-regulated
electricity market?
• If not, obtain utility rate sheet and
understand “stand-by” rates.
• What incentives are available for
cogeneration in your area?
Thermal and Electrical Load
• Do they have a consistent thermal
(steam/hot /chilled water) load
throughout the year?
• Does the facility operate for more than
5000 hours per year?
• Is the electric load constant
throughout the day or does it have
high variability?
Site Specific Conditions
• Is the customer concerned with power
reliability and/or power quality?
• Does the customer have a central
plant and do they expect to expand
replace, retrofit plant equipment within
the next 5 years?
• Is sustainability / impact to
environment important to customer?
CHP Development Cycle Starts With Conceptual Design
and Concludes With Construction and Commissioning
Financial Structuring
Detailed Engineering Management
Equipment / EPC Negotiation
Execute Commercial Agreements
Preliminary Design
Budgetary Capital Estimates
Fuel Supply, Interconnection & Emissions Assessment
Stakeholder Identification
Commercial Structuring
Financial Pro Forma Model Dev
Conceptual Design
Technology Selection
Fatal Flaw Analysis
Load Assessment
Screening Level Operational / Financial Model
Vendor Oversight
Owners Engineering
Commissioning Review
Detailed Design and Project Closing
Project Feasibility/ Business Model Definition
Concept and Screening
NTP, Construction and Commissioning
Service and Performance Assurance
Quality / Performance Assurance
Measurement and Verification
Monitor Service Agreements
High Project Risk Low
First Step In Analyzing CHP Is Load Analysis
Data Gathering &
Load Analysis
• Electric Loads from interval Data
• Thermal Loads
Technology Selection
• Set of Engine/Turbine options matching thermal/electric load
System Design &
Performance
• Prelim/Conceptual CHP plant design • Thermodynamic & Electrical Performance
• Electrical Interconnection & Fuel Supply Evaluation
• Emissions Requirements/Control Evaluation
Financial Evaluation &
Risk Assessment
•Capital & Operating Cost Estimates
•Financing Options & Structures
•Financial Pro Forma (Including Rate Analyses)
•Comprehensive project risk assessment
Base, Peak and Average Electrical Loads Key Determinants
of Sizing Options
Power (Not Energy) is key to determining electric loads : Power (kW) = Energy(kWh) / Time(h)
• Generate load duration curves and frequency distributions
from 15 minute interval data to get
• An idea of load variability
• Peak and average loads for system sizing
Thermal Load Analysis – Understanding Load Variation is
Critical
Interval Data is usually difficult to obtain
Steam/Hot Water Conditions
Natural Gas Consumption
• No substitute
• If not available, work around it
• Mass Flow (lbs/hr)
• Pressure (psi)
• Temperature (F)
• Volumes consumed
• At least monthly detail
• Diurnal load variation is difficult to deal with – but there are options
• Seasonal variation can sometimes be mitigated through absorption or steam turbine driven chilling
Modeling A Cogen System – System Sizing & Performance
GT PRO 23.0 localuse
2414 10-22-2013 17:49:53 file=
Net Power 643595 kWLHV Heat Rate 6288 BTU/kWh
p[psia], T [F], M[lb/s], Steam Properties: IFC-67
1X GE 7F 5-series
(Curve Fit OEM Data Model #435)
2 X GT
185768 kW
14.28 p
91 T
75 %RH
1027.9 m
800 ft elev.
14.13 p
91 T
1027.9 m
Natural gas 23.94 m
77 TLHV 1715182 kBTU/h
1051.9 m
14.84 p 1138 T 2103.7 M
72.44 %N2 12.04 %O2 3.796 %CO2 10.85 %H2O 0.8708 %Ar
1136 T 2103.7 M
41.01 ft^3/lb86280 ft^3/s
1400 1368 1331 1278 1147 955 693 692 570 570 567 397 372 324 324 308 308
193 T 2112.3 M
17.5 ft^3/lb36963 ft^3/s
293266 kW
0.67 M
FW
1.719 p 121 T 432 M
121 T
Natural gas 8.608MLHV 616623 kBTU/h
53.24 p
265 T
433.1 M
LTE
121 T 433.1 M
265 T 53.24 p 285 T
9.6 M
53.24 p
285 T
9.6 M
LPB
9.6 M
433.1 M 135.9 p 285 T
132 p
344 T
433.1 M
IPE2
132 p
348 T
15.69 M
IPB
130.2 p
523 T
15.69 M
IPS1
129.4 p
610 T
15.69 M
IPS2
2596.9 p 354 T
2553.3 p
558 T
417.4 M
HPE2
2521.3 p
665 T
417.4 M
HPE3
2521.3 p
669 T
417.4 M
HPB1
2462.8 p
873 T
417.4 M
HPS0
2446.1 p
981 T
417.4 M
HPS1
2436 p
1053 T
417.4 M
HPS3
2400 p 1050 T 417.4 M
2436 p 1053 T
405.8 M
400 p 584 T
366.9 p
944 T
405.8 M
RH1
361.2 p
1052 T
405.8 M
RH3
405.8 M
349 p 1050 T
15.69 M
125 p 607 T
Includes DB, SCR, CO cat.
Conceptual Thermodynamics & Design
Simulation to predict plant
performance under load
variations/ambient conditions
Detailed Cost Estimates
Financial Pro Forma & Utility Rate Analyses Critical to
Determining Economic Value
Results Summary
Project IRRs Performance Metrics Capital Costs
Inputs
Operational
Financial
Capital Costs Tax Impacts & Incentives
Income & Cash Flow Stmts
EBITDA
Net Income
Free Cash Flow
IRR
Price Forecasts
Delivered Fuel
Electricity Rates
Standby Rates
Inflation
Operations
Revenues
Operating Costs
Depreciation
Book Basis
Accelerated
Deferred Taxes
Financing
IDC
Debt Schedule
Pro Forma Analyzes Long Term Economic Feasibility of Project
Set up to allow dynamic functioning such
that changes to key parameters and
impact on results can be quickly and
easily observed.
CHP Can Provide Robust Self-Regulating Hedge Against
Rising Energy Prices, Lead to Significant Savings
► Key Assumptions
• Potential ESA Payments
• All in O&M Costs
• 15 Year project life
• 94% availability
• NYMEX forward curve
natural gas during liquid
period + fundamentals
based long term forecast.
• Forecast of electric rate
structure and
standby/backup power
supply charges
** Note All numbers are indicative
Economics of Cogen - Example
Inputs Net Installed Capacity ekW 3950 Chiller Efficiency kW/TR 0.70 Average Heat rate Btu/kWh 8,026
Demand Calcs Annual Generation kWh 31,615,006 Annual Chilled Water Prod TR 4,787,578 Hot Water Prod MMBtu 24,412
Energy Prices Natural Gas Price (HHV) $/MMBtu $4.70 Annual Average Price $/MWh $85.00
Cost of Generation Fuel Cost $/MWh 40.32 O&M Cost $/MWh 18.00 Stand-by Rate $/MWh 8.29 YES Variable COG $/MWh 66.60
Savings Calcs. Power Gen Savings $/yr 581,592 Chilled Water Savings $/yr 284,861 Hot Water Savings $/yr 127,433
Total Annual Savings $/yr 993,885
Total Capex (Sale Price, Incl. Margins) $ 11,093,405
Reciprocating Engine – CHP Package
+
Absorption Chiller
Typical CHP reduces energy costs around 5-15% with 10-15 year contract terms…
How Projects Get Financed – The Basics
Self Ownership
Internal Funds
Debt Financing
Loans/Bonds
Equity Financing
Performance Contracting
3rd Party
Ownership
DBOOM
Lease Financing
Thank You & Questions
Dr. Jay Balasubramanian
Operations Manager
Distributed Energy Systems
Phone: (571) 393-7688
E-mail: