Analyst's Handbook: Materials - yardeni.com · Analyst's Handbook: Materials March 29, 2005 Dr....

29
OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst's Handbook: Materials March 29, 2005 Dr. Edward Yardeni 330-668-3326 [email protected] Mali Quintana 330-668-1665 [email protected] Please visit our websites at www.yardeni.com & www.oakassociates.com

Transcript of Analyst's Handbook: Materials - yardeni.com · Analyst's Handbook: Materials March 29, 2005 Dr....

OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

Analyst's Handbook: Materials

March 29, 2005

Dr. Edward Yardeni

[email protected]

Mali Quintana

[email protected]

Please visit our websites atwww.yardeni.com &

www.oakassociates.com

Table Of Contents

Figures Page

S&P 500 Materials 3

S&P 400 Materials 4

Squiggles: Materials 5

Squiggles: Aluminum 6

Squiggles: Diversified Chemicals 7

Squiggles: Paper Products 8

Squiggles: Specialty Chemicals 9

Squiggles: Steel 10

Net Earnings Revisions 11

Earnings Growth 12

Earnings Growth Spreads 13

Forward Earnings & Prices 14

Commodities 15

Earnings & Price Cycles 16

Chemicals 17-18

Metals (Fabricated) 19-21

Metals (Primary) 22-24

Paper Products 25-26

Petroleum 27

Plastics & Rubber Products 28

Page 2 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.www.oakassociates.com

Figure 1.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200690

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MATERIALS__________

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200620

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DIVERSIFED METALS & MINING___________________________FCX PD

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200680

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PAPER PRODUCTS_________________GP IP MWV

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006100

125

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DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS_______________________DD DOW EC EMN HPC PPG

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006100

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ALUMINUM__________AA

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200675

100

125

150

175

200

225

3/28SPECIALTY CHEMICALS_____________________ECL GLK IFF ROH SIAL

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200630

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

3/28

STEEL______ATI NUE WOR X

200-day average.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200625

50

75

100

125

150

3/28

GOLD_____NEM

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- S&P 500 Materials -

Page 3 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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Figure 2.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200680

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MATERIALS__________

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200680

100

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3/28

SPECIALTY CHEMICALS_____________________ALB CK CYT FOE LZ MTX RPM SXT VAL

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200675

125

175

225

3/28

PAPER PACKAGING_________________LFB PKG SON

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20062

3

4

5

6

7

3/28

DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS______________________CBT FMC OLN

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200690

110

130

150

170

190

3/28

PAPER PRODUCTS_________________BOW GLT PCH

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060

50

100

150

200

250

3/28

FERTILIZERS & AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS______________________________________IGL SMG

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20065075

100125150175200225250275300325350

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DIVERSIFIED METALS & MINING____________________________ACI BTU

200-day moving average.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006100

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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS_________________________MLM

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- S&P 400 Materials -

Page 4 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20063

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13141516

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13141516

Mar

S&P 500 MATERIALSOPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts__________________

Annual estimates

12-month forward*

95

96 97

98 99

00

01

01

02

02

03

0404

05

06

* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

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Mar

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Mar

S&P 500 MATERIALS VALUATION & GROWTH

P/E*

Earnings Growth**

P/E Relative to S&P 500

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate.

Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

- Squiggles: Materials -

Page 5 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20065

10

15

20

25

5

10

15

20

25

Mar

S&P 500 ALUMINUMOPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts__________________

Annual estimates

12-month forward*

95

96

97 9899

99

00

01

01

02

02

03

03

04

04

05

06

* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial.

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Figure 5.

5

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Mar

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006.4

.5

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1.1

1.2

1.3

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.6

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.8

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1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

Mar

S&P 500 ALUMINUM VALUATION & GROWTH

P/E*

Earnings Growth**

P/E Relative to S&P 500

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate.

Source: Thomson Financial.

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Figure 6.

- Squiggles: Aluminum -

Page 6 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20064

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Mar

S&P 500 DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALSOPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ bottom-up forecasts, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts__________________

Annual estimates

12-month forward*

95

96 97 9899

00

01

02

03

04

04

0506

* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

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Mar

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006.4

.6

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1.2

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.4

.6

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1.0

1.2

1.4

Mar

S&P 500 DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS VALUATION & GROWTHP/E*

Earnings Growth**

P/E Relative to S&P 500

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate.

Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.

- Squiggles: Diversified Chemicals -

Page 7 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20061

4

7

10

13

16

19222528

1

4

7

10

13

16

19222528

Mar

S&P 500 PAPER PRODUCTSOPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts__________________

Annual estimates

12-month forward*

95

96

97

96

9899

00

01

01

02

02

03

03

04

04

05 06

* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

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Mar

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006.0

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.0

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1.5

2.0

S&P 500 PAPER PRODUCTS VALUATION & GROWTH

P/E*Earnings Growth**

P/E Relative to S&P 500

Mar

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate.

Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.

- Squiggles: Paper Products -

Page 8 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20065

7

9

11

13

15

5

7

9

11

13

15

Mar

S&P 500 SPECIALTY CHEMICALSOPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts__________________

Annual estimates

12-month forward*

95

96

9798 99

00

01

01

02

02

03

04

04

05

06

* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

5

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Mar

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

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.4

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.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Mar

S&P 500 SPECIALTY CHEMICALS VALUATION & GROWTH

P/E*

Earnings Growth**

P/E Relative to S&P 500

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate.

Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

- Squiggles: Specialty Chemicals -

Page 9 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

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16

Mar

S&P 500 STEEL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts)

Consensus Forecasts__________________

Annual estimates

12-month forward*

95

96

97

98

9900

01

02

03

04

06

05

05

04

* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

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10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5

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45

Mar

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

Mar

S&P 500 STEEL VALUATION & GROWTH

P/E*

Earnings Growth**

P/E Relative to S&P 500

* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate.

Source: Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

- Squiggles: Steel -

Page 10 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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Figure 15.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Mar

S&P 500 MATERIALS(% estimates up less down)__________________

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Mar

DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS______________________DD DOW EC EMN HPC PPG

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Mar

PAPER PRODUCTS_________________GP IP MWV

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Mar

SPECIALTY CHEMICALS_____________________ECL GLK IFF ROH SIAL

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Mar

ALUMINUM__________AA

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Mar

DIVERSIFIED METALS & MINING____________________________FCX PD

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Mar

STEEL______ATI NUE X

Note: 3-month moving average of 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month consensus forecast. Source: Thomson Financial.

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-40

-20

0

20

40

Mar

GOLD_____NEM

yardeni.com

- Net Earnings Revisions -

Page 11 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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Figure 16.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-10

0

10

20

30

40

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60

70

Mar

S&P 500 MATERIALS vs. S&P 500(percent)

STEG*_____

S&P 500 Materials

S&P 500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20065

10

15

20

5

10

15

20

Mar

LTEG*_____

S&P 500 Materials

S&P 500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-10

0

10

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30

40

50

60

70

Mar

S&P 500 Materials_______________

STEG*

LTEG*

yardeni.com

* Short-term earnings growth: 12-month forward consensus earnings growth. Long-term earnings growth: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth.

Source: Thomson Financial.

- Earnings Growth -

Page 12 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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Figure 17.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mar

S&P 500 MATERIALS vs. S&P 500(percentage points)

Materials Less S&P 500 STEG*

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Mar

Materials Less S&P 500 LTEG*

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar

Materials STEG*Less Materials LTEG*

yardeni.com

* Short-term earnings growth: 12-month forward consensus earnings growth. Long-term earnings growth: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth.

Source: Thomson Financial.

- Earnings Growth Spreads -

Page 13 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20055

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

3/22

MarS&P 500 EARNINGS & PRICES:MATERIALS

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index(weekly)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings:Materials*

* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year’sconsensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20055

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

150

200

250

300

350

400

3/22

MarS&P 500 EARNINGS & PRICES

CRB MetalsSpot Price Index(weekly)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings:Materials*

* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year’sconsensus earnings estimates.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Thomson Financial.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

- Forward Earnings & Prices -

Page 14 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

3/22

Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin,rubber, and tallow.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06150

200

250

300

350

400

150

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250

300

350

400

3/28

CRB METALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

- Commodities -

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060

5

10

15

20

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Mar

EARNINGS & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX: PAPER(yearly percent change)

PPI (Intermediate): Paper

S&P 500 Forward Earnings:Paper Products*

* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Financial and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Feb

Mar

EARNINGS & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX: CHEMICALS (INDUSTRIALS)(yearly percent change)

PPI (Intermediate): Chemicals

S&P 500 Forward Earnings:Chemical Industry*

* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Financial and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

- Earnings & Price Cycles -

Page 16 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

JanBASIC CHEMICALS SHIPMENTS(billion dollars, saar)

Shipments

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200685

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Feb

CHEMICALS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(1997=100)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

- Chemicals -

Page 17 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan

BASIC CHEMICALS INVENTORIES(billion dollars, yearly change)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Feb

CHEMICALS (INDUSTRIAL) PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

PPI

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 27.

- Chemicals -

Page 18 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

160

170

180

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200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

Feb

FABRICATED METALS ORDERS & SHIPMENTS(billion dollars, 3-month ma, saar)

Orders

Shipments

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-50

0

50

100

-50

0

50

100

Feb

FABRICATED METALS INVENTORIES(billion dollars, yearly change)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

- Metals (Fabricated) -

Page 19 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200616

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

Jan

FABRICATED METALS PRODUCTS* EXPORTS & IMPORTS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

Exports

Imports

* Excluding machinery and transportation equipment.Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Feb

FABRICATED METALS PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Steel Mill Products

Fabricated StructuralMetal Products

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

- Metals (Fabricated) -

Page 20 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200675

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Feb

FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(1997=100)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200665

70

75

80

85

90

65

70

75

80

85

90

Feb

FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS CAPACITY UTILIZATION(percent)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

- Metals (Fabricated) -

Page 21 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Feb

PRIMARY METALS ORDERS & SHIPMENTS(billion dollars, 3-month ma, saar)

Orders

Shipments

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-50

-25

0

25

50

75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

Feb

PRIMARY METALS INVENTORIES(billion dollars, yearly change)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

- Metals (Primary) -

Page 22 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200610

20

30

40

50

60

70

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan

PRIMARY METALS PRODUCTS EXPORTS & IMPORTS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

Exports

Imports

* Excluding machinery and transportation equipment.Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

Feb

PRIMARY METALS PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Iron and Steel Scrap

Copper Base Scrap

Aluminum Base Scrap

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

- Metals (Primary) -

Page 23 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200680

85

90

95

100

105

110

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Feb

PRIMARY METALS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(1997=100)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

yardeni.com

Figure 38.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200665

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Feb

PRIMARY METALS CAPACITY UTILIZATION(percent)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

yardeni.com

Figure 39.

- Metals (Primary) -

Page 24 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006120

140

160

180

200

120

140

160

180

200

Jan

PAPER PRODUCTS SHIPMENTS(billion dollars, saar)

Shipments

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 40.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0660

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Feb

PAPER PRODUCTS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(1997=100)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

yardeni.com

Figure 41.

- Paper Products -

Page 25 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan

PAPER PRODUCTS INVENTORIES(billion dollars, yearly change)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 42.

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Feb

PAPER PRODUCTS PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Paperboard

Paperboxes & Containers

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

- Paper Products -

Page 26 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200625

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

475

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

475

Jan

PETROLEUM REFINERIES SHIPMENTS(billion dollars, saar)

Crude Oil Outlays*

Shipments

* Total daily crude oil demand multiplied by 365 days and the price of a barrel of crude oil.Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Censusand Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-100

0

100

200

300

-100

0

100

200

300

Feb

CRUDE PETROLEUM PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

- Petroleum -

Page 27 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006100

125

150

175

200

225

100

125

150

175

200

225

Jan

PLASTICS & RUBBER PRODUCTS SHIPMENTS(billion dollars, saar)

Shipments

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Feb

PLASTICS & RUBBER PRODUCTS PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Plastic Resins & Materials

Synthetic Rubber

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 47.

- Plastics & Rubber Products -

Page 28 / March 29, 2005 / Analyst’s Handbook: Materials www.oakassociates.com

OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.

Copyright (C) Dr. Edward Yardeni 2005. All rights reserved. Theinformation contained herein has been obtained from sources believedto be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot beguaranteed. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

Additional Information Available on Request.