Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

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Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th , 2009

Transcript of Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Page 1: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Page 2: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Stock Price$51.82 (as of 09/23/09)

52-week range$34.33 - 59.22

Market Cap

$209.02 billion (Large, value stock)

Beta0.87

IMP Portfolio currently holds 0 shares of CHL

Current Stock Price

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 3: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Sector: Telecommunications

Industry: Wireless Communications

China Mobile Limited provides mobile telecommunications and related services primarily in China, Hong Kong, and internationally

It offers mobile voice services, such as: local calls domestic long distance calls international long distance calls intra/inter-provincial roaming international roaming voice value-added services

The company also engages in data businesses, which include short message services, wireless application protocol, and multimedia messaging services, and provides various data products, such as java applications, IVR, and PIM

In addition, it offers agricultural information services

As of December 31, 2008, it had approximately 498 million subscriber base

Company Overview

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 4: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Intrinsic Valuation

3 Stage Dividend Discount Model$159.13

Undervalued (CP<IV)Current price =$ 51.82 (09/23/09)Intrinsic Value = $159.13

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 5: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Valuation Ratios

StockS&P 500

P/E 12.2 18.9P/B 2.9 2.2P/S 3.2 1.1Dividend Yield % 3.2 2.3Stock S&P 500Forward P/E 12.1 16.3PEG Ratio 0.8 1.8

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 6: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Key Statistics

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 7: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Key Statistics cont.

Experts opinion on the industry: Buy or Hold

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Current Ratio 1.281

Page 8: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

2 Yr Price Performance of CHL vs. Competitors

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 9: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

5-Year Comparison with S&P 500, Shanghai SE Composite, and CHU

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 10: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities Threats

Prominent mobile telecommunications player Growth through acquisitions Strong financial performance

Declining key parameters Lack of broadband services

Strategic alliance with SOFTBANK Corp and Vodafone International 2010 Shanghai Expo 3G technology

Intense competition Limited spectrum allocation Stringent government regulations

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 11: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

“…far ahead of its nearest competitors. Additionally, a strong balance sheet, strong free cash flow and sustainable dividends facilitate the company's efforts to weather economic volatility…” –Zacks.com

“There is much more room for growth. Many rural areas of China are not deeply penetrated, and the country’s overall wireless penetration is only about 50%. China Mobile is advancing into un-serviced areas.”- Seeking Alpha

“China Mobile is the Goliath of the wireless communications industry in China… more than 70% market share in mainland China… those millions of customers provide recurring revenue year in and year out.” – Motley Fool

“China Mobile has a perfect five-star rating on CAPS… a perfect dividend stock”- Motley Fool

“Growth, financial health, and profitability received ‘B’ by Morningstar”

Headlines and Reports

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Datamonitor, Valueline, and Valuepro

Page 12: Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett and Ron Sivick Thursday, September 24 th, 2009.

Recommendations

• Long-term, value stock

• Rock solid financial statements

• Experts suggest fair value estimate is $63.00 and to sell @ $126.00

• Durable for weathering economic volatility

• Strong government support

• Buy 60 shares of CHL @ 51.81 (price as of 09/23/09