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ANALYSIS OF LAG TIME FOR DECEMBER 2014 FLOOD INCCIDENT IN

KELANTAN RIVER BASIN, MALAYSIA

NURUL FATYHAH BINTI BAHARUDDIN

Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for award of the degree of

Bachelor of Civil Engineering (Hons)

Faculty of Civil Engineering & Earth Resources

UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA PAHANG

JANUARY 2016

vi

ABSTRACT

Kelantan River Basin is highly vulnerable to the risk of flood. Frequent flooding can

cause a lot of cost property damages and losses of lives. December 2014 flood event

was on an unprecedented scale due to extreme rain rate rainfall. The water level

increase rapidly and the local people do not expected the situation become worst. These

research focus of analysing lag time, (∆t) for flood event in Kelantan River Basin

occurred during the end of December 2014 (from 20 until 31). The research area

covered the area that effected during the flood event; Gua Musang, Kuala Krai, Tanah

Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota Bharu. In this research, Auto-estimator method was used to

derived hourly rain rate satellite-based rainfall data from satellite image of top of cloud

temperature data taken from the public domain meanwhile the water level data obtained

from Department of Irrigation & Drainage (DID).In addition, rain gauge hourly rainfall

from DID also taken for comparison against satellite-based rainfall data. The estimated

value and measured value shows a very good agreement (r = 0.905 to 0.99). The

regression line fitted through origin has a slope of 0.811 to 1.134 the dataset. In this

research there are three places to measure the water level starts from the upstream basin;

Tangga Krai, Jambatan Guillemard and Tambatan DiRaja. From the analysis of the time

series graphs of rainfall and river water levels show a lag time between the occurrence

of first extreme rainfall in the upstream with water rising to the level of danger were 3,9

and 28 hours in Tangga Krai, Jambatan Guillemard and Tambatan DiRaja, respectively.

Neglecting the lag time between rainfall and water level rise to dangerous level at

Tangga Krai, it found that the lag time between the water level of danger at Tangga Krai

and Jambatan Guillemard, also between Tangga Krai and Tambatan DiRaja were 6 and

17 hour. It comparable with DID records. On top of that, the satellite-based data from

public domain able to be used for the flood forecasting in future will give benefit to

relevant parties in future to ensure the systematic planning in flood management system.

vii

ABSTRAK

Lembangan Sungai Kelantan amat terdedah kepada risiko banjir. Banjir yang kerap

boleh menyebabkan banyak kerosakan harta benda dan kehilangan nyawa. Banjir pada

Disember 2014 dikatakan berada di dalam skala yang belum pernah berlaku sebelum ini

dan disebabkan oleh kadar hujan melampau hujan. Paras air meningkat dengan cepat

dan penduduk tidak menjangka keadaan menjadi teruk. Tumpuan penyelidikan ini

adalah untuk menganalisis masa lag, (Δt) bagi kejadian banjir di Lembangan Sungai

Kelantan yang berlaku pada akhir Disember 2014 (dari 20 hingga 31). Kawasan kajian

meliputi kawasan yang terjejas teruk semasa kejadian banjir; Gua Musang, Kuala Krai,

Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas dan Kota Bharu. Dalam kajian ini, kaedah Auto-estimator

digunakan untuk mendapatkan data hujan berasaskan satelit. Kadar hujan setiap jam

yang diperolehi daripada imej satelit dari data suhu awan yang diambil dari domain

awam, sementara itu data paras air yang diperolehi daripada Jabatan Pengairan dan

Saliran (JPS). Di samping itu, data hujan setiap jam dari JPS juga diambil untuk

perbandingan terhadap data hujan berasaskan satelit. Data yang dianggar dan data

diukur menunjukkan perbandingan yang sangat baik (r = 0.905 - 0.99). Garis regresi

melalui titik asal menunjukkan kecerunan 0.811-1.134 dataset. Dalam kajian ini

terdapat tiga tempat untuk mengukur paras air bermula dari lembangan hulu; Tangga

Krai, Jambatan Guillemard dan Tambatan DiRaja. Daripada analisis graf siri masa

hujan dan air sungai peringkat menunjukkan jarak masa antara berlakunya hujan lebat

pertama di hulu sungai dengan air yang semakin meningkat ke tahap yang bahaya

adalah selama 3, 9 dan 28 jam di Tangga Krai, Jambatan Guillemard dan Tambatan

DiRaja. Dengan mengabaikan jarak masa di antara hujan dan paras air meningkat ke

tahap berbahaya di Tangga Krai, didapati bahawa jarak masa di antara paras air bahaya

di Tangga Krai dan Jambatan Guillemard, juga antara Tangga Krai dan Tambatan

DiRaja adalah selama 6 dan 17 jam. Data ini selari dengan JPS rekod. Selain itu, data

yang berasaskan satelit dari domain awam dapat digunakan untuk ramalan banjir pada

masa akan datang akan memberi manfaat kepada pihak yang berkaitan pada masa akan

datang bagi memastikan perancangan yang sistematik dalam sistem pengurusan banjir.

viii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

TITLE PAGE

SUPERVISOR’S DECLARATION ii

STUDENTS’S DECLARATION iii

DEDICATION iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v

ABSTRACT vi

ABSTRAK vii

TABLE OF CONTENTS viii

LIST OF TABLES xi

LIST OF FIGURES xii

LIST OF SYMBOLS xiv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xv

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Problem Statement 3

1.3 Objectives 6

1.4 Scope of Study 6

1.5 Study Area 7

1.6 Significant of Study 9

1.7 Thesis Structure 9

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction 10

2.2 Flood in Kelantan 11

2.3 Chronology Of The Flood In Kelantan In December 2014 12

2.4 Flood routing 17

2.5 Satellite-based rainfall data 18

ix

2.6 Auto-estimator Method

2.6.1 Precipitation Rate Equations

19

19

2.7 Summary 20

CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Methodology 21

3.2 Study Area 23

3.3 Data Collecting 24

3.4 Pre-processing 27

3.5 Processing

3.4.1 Auto-estimator Method

3.4.2 Statistical Correlation

3.4.3 Descriptive Statistics

28

28

29

29

3.6 Output 32

3.7 Summary 32

CHAPTER 4 RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS

4.1 Introduction 33

4.2 Validation Analysis 34

4.3 Lag Time (∆ t) of Water Level Increment 40

4.4 Lag Time (∆T) Analysis

4.3.1 Lag time (∆t) of water level in Tangga Krai Flow

with the influence of rainfall rate at Gua Musang

and Kuala Krai.

4.3.2 Lag time (∆t) of water level in Jambatan Guillemard

Flow with the influence of rainfall rate at Gua

Musang, Kuala Krai and Tanah Merah.

4.3.3 Lag time (∆t) of water level in Tambatan DiRaja

Flow with the influence of rainfall rate at Gua

Musang, Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and

42

42

44

46

x

Kota Bharu.

4.5 Summary 48

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusion 49

5.2 Evaluation for Objective

5.2.1 Sub-objective 1:To validate satellite-based rainfall

data

5.2.2 Sub-objective 2: To analyse lag time (∆ t), of rainfall incident with the water level at Kelantan River Basin

50

50

50

5.2 Recommendations for Future Research 51

REFERENCES 52

APPENDICES

A Daily water level data for Kelantan River Basin 56

B Daily Rainfall data for Jeti Kastam/Tambatan DiRaja 61

C Satellite-based rainfall & water level data for Tangga Krai

Flow

67

D Satellite-based rainfall & water level data for Jambatan

Guillemard Flow

74

xi

LIST OF TABLES

Table No.

Title Page

3.1 Population and area of major cities in Kelantan 24

3.2 Selected water level dataset by DID (21 December 2014) 28

3.3 Rainfall rate using Auto-Estimator method at Gua Musang

(20 December 2014)

29

4.1 Lag time of Tangga Krai Flow Influence by Gua Musang

and Kuala Krai Rainfall Rates

42

4.2 Lag time of Jambatan Guillemard Flow Influence by Gua

Musang, Kuala Krai and Tanah Merah Rainfall Rates

44

4.3 Lag time of Tambatan DiRaja Flow Influence by Gua

Musang, Kuala Krai , Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota

Bharu Rainfall Rates

46

xii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Title

Page

1.1 Flood in Kelantan 2

1.2 Flood Article 3

1.3 Flood Article 4

1.4 Flood Article 4

1.5 Flood Article 5

1.6 Flood Article 5

1.7 The Kelantan River Basin Boundary 8

2.1 Pam station at Kuala Krai under water during flood 12

2.2 The area near to Tambatan DiRaja on December 24. 13

2.3 The view of Kuala Krai district on December 25 14

2.4 The view of SMK Manek Urai on December 25 14

2.5 The view of Stadium Sultan Muhammad IV 15

2.6 The riverbank area at Dataran Air Muleh, Pasir Mas 16

2.7 The water overflows the riverbank at Dataran Air Muleh, Pasir

Mas

16

3.1 Flow diagram of Research Methodology 22

3.2 Water Level Dataset Retrieved from D.I.D website 24

3.3 Onsite Rainfall Dataset Retrieved from D.I.D website 25

3.4 The interface of Satellite base Dataset (IR4) 25

3.5 Time-series graph for 20 December 2014 30

3.6 Time-series graph for 31 December 2014 30

3.7 Time-series graph for Tangga Krai Flow 31

xiii

3.8 Time-series graph for Jambatan Guillemard Flow 31

3.9 Time-series graph for Tambatan DiRaja Flow 31

4.1 Correlation of rainfall rate for 20 December 2014 34






4.7 Lag time for water level of Kelantan River Basin based on DID

dataset

41

4.8 Lag Time for Tangga Krai flow 43

4.9 Lag Time for Jambatan Guillemard flow 45

4.10 Lag Time for Tambatan DiRaja flow 47

xiv

LIST OF SYMBOLS

∆t Lag Time

xv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

DID Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia

JPS Jabatan Pengaliran & Saliran Malaysia

BH Berita Harian

UM Utusan Malaysia

NSC National Security Council

TSD The Sun Daily

PR Precipitation Radar

1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Flood defined as a situation where water flows exceed the carrying capacity of a

river resulting in overflows over the river banks (Goh, 1981). Another definition of a

flood is considered to be unusually high stage of the river. It is often described as that

stage at which the stream channel becomes filled and above which it overflows its

banks (Saul, 1992). Normally, this overflow happens when heavy rain takes place non-

stop for a long period time at certain location. It will cause place that usually dries be

overflow with water. It situation may also bring death and properties damage. 90% of

population who affected by natural hazards are subjected to flood (Haider, 2006)

The most devastating natural disaster experienced in Malaysia is flood. The

flooding of Malaysian rivers is mainly due to the high amount of rainfall in river basins.

Malaysia is a tropical country, receiving more than 2 500mm of rain annually. There are

total of 189 river basins with the main channels flowing directly to the South China Sea

throughout Malaysia, including Sabah and Sarawak (89 of the river basins are in

Peninsula Malaysia, 78 in Sabah and 22 in Sarawak), and 85 of them are prone to

recurrent flooding. The estimated area vulnerable to flood disaster is approximately 9%

of the total Malaysia area, and is affecting almost 4.82 million people which is around

22% of the total population of the country (DID, 2009).

2

In Malaysia history prior December2014 flood incident, the massive flood

occurred in 1886, 1967, 1971, 2007, and 2008 and lately this situation has continuously

worsened. One of the severest is the December 2006 and January 2007 floods, the

rescue and recovery departments has learn a lot of experiences as a results of these

floods (Barton, 1994, Drabek, 1995, Ewen et al., 2007 and Tompkins et al., 2008 ).

Kelantan on the other hand has faced a number of severe floods over several

past years and its vulnerability to these resulted from the rapid urban development of

the Kelantan. The flood incident in December 2014 was the worst (Figure 1.1) The

impacts of river flooding are even more damaging and effect economic activities and

the livelihoods of people in the area.

Figure 1.1: Flood in Kelantan

Source: zulkarnainh.wordpress.com (2015)

3

1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Flooding is a natural event, and no matter how hard a government or society

tried to minimize or to stop it completely (FRMP 2012). Due to unexpected flood in

December 2014, the villagers that lived in effected area do not have enough time to

move to the higher place since the transportation cannot be used and the main roads also

inundation with water. The situations become worst during 25 December 2014 when

water level increase rapidly at the downstream area such as Pasir Mas and Kota Bharu.

During that period most of the locals at the downstream area did not expected the

increasing of water level will cause flood at their area.

In December 2014 due to extreme rainfall rate, flood event hit almost 90 percent

of Kelantan state; only a few district in Kelantan did not affected with the flood. Figures

1.2 to 1.6 are some of the articles from the local newspaper about flood in Kelantan.

The articles show the difficulty faces by the villagers during the flood occur. The daily

activities were disturbed and it causes a huge amount of losses. Due to the high water

level and strong current flow, some of the affected area not able connected and the aid

not able extended to the victim. It is necessity for flood forecasting in a practical way to

save lives and property. The possibility of satellite-based rainfall data from public

domain to be use together with water level data from DID to determine the lag time of

between extreme rainfall rate and increasing of water level should be study.

Figure 1.2 Flood Article (Berita Harian, Dec. 2014)

4

Figure 1.3 Flood Article (Utusan, Dec. 2014)

Figure 1.4 Flood Article (MalaysiaKini, Dec. 2014)

5

Figure 1.5 Flood Article (Says, Dec. 2014)

Figure 1.6 Flood Article (Utusan Online, Dec. 2014)

6

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

The main objective of the study was to analyse of lag time for December 2014 flood

incident in Kelantan River Basin. To achieve the main objective of this study, there

were specific objectives to accomplish as follow;

1. To estimate and validate satellite-based rainfall data, and

2. To analyse lag time (∆ t), of rainfall incident with the water level at

Kelantan River Basin.

1.4 SCOPE OF STUDY

This study was limited to the following:

a. The study area was limited to affected areas along Kelantan River Basin

during flood in December 2014 which is Gua Musang, Kuala Krai, Tanah

Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota Bharu (Fig 1.7).

b. The period of study was limited from 20 December until 31 December

2014.

c. Satellite based rainfall data downloaded from public domain were used as

hour-rainfall data

d. The water level data and onsite rainfall data obtained from Department of

Irrigation & Drainage Malaysia

7

1.5 STUDY AREA

Kelantan River Basin is located in the north eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia.

The river is about 248 km long and drains an area of 13,100 km2, occupying more than

85% of the State of Kelantan. It divides into the Galas and Lebir Rivers near Kuala

Krai, about 100 km from the river mouth. The Kelantan River system flows northward

passing through such major towns as Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota

Bharu, before finally discharging into the South China Sea (Figure 1.7).

The basin has an annual rainfall of about 2,500 mm much of which occurs

during the North-East Monsoon between mid-October and mid-January. The mean

annual temperature at Kota Bharu is 27.5° C with mean relative humidity of 81%. The

mean flow of the Kelantan River measured at Guillemard Bridge is 557.5 m3/s (DID,

2009).

December 2014, Kelantan experience the heavy flood. The flood was known as

“Bah Kuning” (yellow flood) as the brown and muddy coloured of water. As much as

255 mm (10 inches) of rain fall in 24 hours between December 21 and 22 in the east

coast states, according to the (MMD, 2014). It had further worsened the flood in the

states. On December 23, the Malaysian Meteorological Department issued a high level

warning of heavy rain in parts of peninsular Malaysia. Adding to that, the high tide

phenomenon which are influenced by the moon were also identified as one of the major

contributors for the heavy flood in December 2014.

The area which damage from the flood event was covered near to the major

rives at the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The area along Kelantan River system

which is Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota Bharu effected badly during

flood incident in December 2014. The National Security Council reports that the total

number of displaced flood victims around the 158,476 (MKN, 2014).

8

Figure 1.7 The Kelantan River Basin Boundary

9

1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

From this study, the pattern of the rainfall and the water level at Kelantan River

Basin during the flood 2014 incident can be determined. Beside the pattern of time

travelling of the flood flow also can be determine. Therefore, the comprehensive

planning can be made to ensure all the villagers can be alert to make preparation and

planning with any possible of flood incident in future. The data is importance and can

be used for the authorized party such as Department of Drainage and Irrigation (DID) or

Kelantan State Government for future development.

1.7 THESIS STRUCTURE

This research comprises of five chapters. The first chapter consists of

introduction section. It states the background, problem statement, objectives of study,

scope of study and lastly the significant of study. For chapter two, the key terms in-

purpose for this research are described and also the literature review that related and

suitable for this research. Chapter three explains the research methodology for research

data collected and the method of data analysis to be employed. For chapter four, the

results obtained from study area and year of study were presented and the analysis from

the result was discussed. Finally, chapter five comprises the conclusion from the overall

chapter and relates some recommendations for future work on research field.

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 INTRODUCTION

A flood issue is synonym with the community especially for those who live in

East Coast area of Peninsular Malaysia which is Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang

state. In Kelantan, flooding is the most devastating natural hazard that usually occurs

during end of the year. Flood takes hours or even days to develop, the resident have

time to prepare for moving to the higher place. There are many factor causes the flood.

The high rainfall intensity, the design of drainage that not enough to support the demand

and also the water discharge system that has been disturbed by human activity such as

human development and deforestation are several factor that cause the flood.

Over the year, flood leaves a very huge impact and causes suffering to human

life and loss of materials and properties. Floods are the most common occurring natural

disaster that affects human and its surrounding environment (Gebeyehu, 1989). The

flood hazard comprises many aspects including structural and tensional damage, loss of

life and property, contamination of food, water and other material, disruption of socio-

economic activity including transport and communication, and in some cases the

spoiling of agricultural land (Jamaluddin, 1985).

11

2.2 FLOODS IN KELANTAN

Hydrological Kelantan River Basin is one of the areas in Malaysia that

experienced frequent flooding. The major flood episode happen in 1967 caused the area

to be declared as Emergency Area as 84 percent of residents of Kelantan State were

affected and a lot destruction of basic facilities such as roads and hospitals (Low, 1983;

Sham, 1973). The floods that occur in Kelantan in 1967 also known as “Bah Merah”

(red flood) as the water, which inundated almost all parts of the state, was reddish in

colour, a departure from the usual milk tea or brown-coloured water. In a research

article by Sham Sani (1974), about 84.0 percent of the population in Kelantan were

affected and at least 20.0 percent or 125,000 people had to be moved to safer grounds.

Damage was estimated to be in the region of RM 30,000,000.

The National Security Council (NSC) confirmed the massive flood that hit Kelantan

was the worst in the history of the state. Water levels of the recent floods superseded the

floods of 1967.According to the council’s report, the water level of Sungai Kelantan at

Tambatan DiRaja, which has a danger level of 25 metres, reached 34.17 metres last

month compared to 29.70 metres in 2004 and 33.61 metres in 1967.The levels at

Tangga Krai, which has a danger level of 5 metres, reached 7.03 metres compared to

6.70 metres in 2004 and 6.22 metres in 1967.Kampung Manek Urai, Kampung Manjur

and Kampung Karangan in Kelantan as among the worst-hit areas during the floods that

inundated the east coast of the peninsula, with houses and villages in ruins.

12

2.3 CHRONOLOGY OF THE FLOOD IN KELANTAN IN DECEMBER 2014

The New Age (TNA,12 Jan 2015) reported that the torrential rains that began on

the 17th of December, 2014, led to flash flooding and forced 3390 people in Kuala Krai,

Kelantan, to flee their homes. Later, three days of continuous heavy rain fell from the

21st to the 23rd of December, 2014, in Gua Musang. This was a record-setting rainfall

of 1295 mm, equivalent to the amount of rain usually seen in a span of 64 days. As a

result, the water levels of three major rivers, the Sungai Galas at Dabong, the Sungai

Lebir at Tualang and the Sungai Kelantan, rose drastically above the water levels

considered dangerous. Figure 2.1 shows the situations of flood at one of main road at

Kuala Krai.

The local newspaper, The Sun Daily (TSD, 5 Jan 2015) has recorded the

chronology of the flood at Kelantan started since December, 17 where the low area in

Kuala Krai and Machang start affected by floods, the flood evacuees rose to 2,084

people during that day. In December 20, TSD reported that the number of evacuees in

Kelantan increasing drastically from 15,002 on December 19 to 19,186. 22 main roads

closed in Kelantan with the total evacuees increase to 20,709 people at 84 evacuation

centre during December 23.

Figure 2.1 Pam station at Kuala Krai under water during

flood

(Source: The Sun Daily, Dec. 2014)

13

Another local newspaper, Utusan Online (28 December 2014) reported that

during December 25, Kelantan state is almost paralyzed when the water of the Sungai

Kelantan start overflow into the Kota Bharu city in the afternoon. Even until 10 pm on

24 December, the water flow was getting extremely fast and accelerated at high rate, it

has submerged the whole riverbank area of Kelantan River and overflow to the town.

The authorities also issued an immediate warning siren and evacuation order to

residents in the vicinity. The affected areas are Kampung Kota, Kampung Sireh, Jalan

Che Su, Jalan Post Office Lama, Jalan Tok Hakim, Bunut Payung and Tambatan DiRaja

(Figure 2.2).

An article from Berita Harian (BH) on December 25, Kuala Krai district was

reported totally lost under water on December 25 (Figure 2.3). Almost 500 victims

trapped at Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Manek Urai, Kuala Krai. The victims have

evacuated to the school since 20 December and the water level keeps increasing until it

reaches the third level of the school. Bad weather and strong currents flow become the

reason for the rescue team failed to do the rescue operation for the victim at the school

(Figure 2.4). The total evacuees increase to 30,687 people at 9 districts with 146

evacuation centre opened during December 24.

Figure 2.2 The area near to Tambatan DiRaja on December 24.

(Source: Utusan Online, Dec. 2014)

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