Analysis of Intrastate Conflict in South Asia

INTERSTATE CONFLICTS IN SOUTH ASIA AND THE IMPACT TO THE REGION

By David Raja Marpaung S.IP, M.Def

David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indonesia Politic and Defense Consultant. email:[email protected]

INTRODUCTION

Characteristics of the South Asian Region

– Almost all countries of South Asia are weak states with strong cohesive societies

– Largely India-centric

– Possibility that the insecurity will“spill over” to the neighboring state

David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indonesia

Politic and Defense Consultant. email:[email protected]

• Why Traditional Security Issues

– Acquired nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan(stability-instability paradox)

– Unresolved border disputes between other states (mostly India)

– Perceive military threat as excess of the conflicts.



RESEARCH PROBLEM

What are the main interstate conflicts related to the traditional security issues in South Asian region?

What are the impacts of those conflicts to the broader security environment in the region?

What are the role of SAARC as the regional mechanism to manage security environment within the region?



CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Traditional Security

– Stephen Walt, as noted in Buzan, et.all (1998: 3), defined (traditional) security study as “the study of the threat, use, and control of military forces”

– The threats to a states’ security principally comes from outside its border (external environment).

– These threats are primarily military in nature and usually need a military response to counter threats.



Analytical Tools

• PESTEL analysis (politic, economy, social, technology, environment, legal): analysing the impacts to the region

• Barry Buzan's Dimension Matrix (dimensions vs level of analysis): analysing the correlation between impacts and scope of influence



ANALYSIS Brief Profile of South Asian Countries



Intraregional trading in South Asia



Regional Trading Tariffs in South Asia



ANALYSIS Interstate Conflicts in South Asia



• Bilateral conflict agreements among the countries:



ANALYSIS

The Impacts of the Security Conflicts PESTEL Analysis

Politic: terrorism activities international involvement (UN, US, EU) political tension suppression to the minority insurgency suppression to civil society ineffectiveness of SAARC



Economy: illegal trading trough border money laundering (trough “hawala” system) South Asia is the least integrated region in the world. Intraregional trade is less than 2% of GDP, compared

to more than 20% for East Asia. The cost of trading across borders in South Asia is one

of the highest in the world.



Social drugs abuse in society, mainly come from Afghanistan

(narcotics, cannabis, hashish, opium, heroin, morphine)

refugees from the conflict area (Kashmir, Tibet, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bhutan)

illegal migrant worker human trafficking (women and children for sexual

exploitation and illegal labour) minority discrimination



Technology: nuclear race Energy trade in the region is low. Only India, Bhutan,

and Nepal currently trade electricity less-developed regional telecommunication access Only 7% of international telephone calls are regional,

compared to 71% for East Asia.



Environment opium plants spreading river and dam dispute as the main agricultural irrigation

Legal inconsistency in applying bilateral and regional

agreements law enforcement becoming weak refuse to joint nuclear non-proliferation treaty



Barry Buzan's Dimension Matrix



The Role of SAARC

SAARC Profile

– Established at the First Summit held in Dhaka on 7-8 December 1985

– Founded by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan joined in 2005

– Primary objectives is to accelerate the process of economic and social development in member states, through joint action in agreed areas of cooperationDavid Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture

University of Indonesia, also Indonesia Politic and Defense Consultant.

email:[email protected]

• The Role of SAARC in the Region

– Politic and Security• promote of mutual trust and understanding

• promoting peace, stability and amity

• accelerated socio-economic cooperation

– Economy

• Free Trade Agreement (effective July 1, 2006)

• creation of sub-regional networks,



– Poverty Eradication

• Leadership in developing and implementing Micro Credit Programmes

– Social

• population stabilisation

• empowerment of women

• youth mobilisation

• human resource development

• promotion of health and nutrition

• the protection of children.David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indonesia


– Terrorism and Drug-trafficking

• SAARC Regional Conventions on Suppression of Terrorism and on Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances.



• Failure of SAARC

– political rivalries between countries went against SAARC's goal.

– status of SAARC is merely a platform where annual talks and meetings are held

– Its charter states explicitly that bilateral and contentious issues shall be excluded from the deliberations of SAARC



Problems faced by SAARC as the regional mechanism:

Difference in approaches and attitude of member countries.

Presence of inter-state conflicts.

Inequitable sharing of costs and benefits.

Disparity in regional resources.

The lack of interdependence in matters of trade.

Inadequacy of transport and communication facilities among the various members of SAARC.

Lack of free travel and free movement of people.

Lack of united stand on various international issues.

Certain institutional and procedural shortcomings.

Sinking bilateral differences/narrow perspective.

Bureaucratic problems. David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture University of Indonesia, also Indonesia


Finding the Future Way• Strengthening SAARC as regional mechanism:

– To develop political will to reverse the course of confrontation.

– To show willingness and commitment to live together.

– To expand civil societies, both within and between nations.

– To strengthen regional institutions.

– To develop understanding on security matters within the region while seeking cooperation from contiguous regions.

– To accommodate interests of small neighbours.

– To make amendment of SAARC Charter in principle to solve interstate conflict.

– To encourage economic cooperative endeavours.



• Challenge of India as the biggest power:– India is no longer trusted by other countries in the region,

since almost all of them have conflict with India

– India tends to maintain the conflicts, since the major cause of the conflicts are the rivalry of resources (which are important for national interests)

– Long lasting inter-religion and inter-ethnic conflict within the society

– Inherited conflicts from British Colonial Era

– India considers itself as the central and super power in the region, so India try to force its hegemony to the others



Conclusions

• South Asia is a region with multi-diversities in demography, religion, and ethnic groups.

• Among the member of SAARC, for a long time, India has interstate conflicts with all of the countries in the region, except Afghanistan. The major conflicts are about border dispute and resources rivalry.

• The interstate traditional security conflicts making South Asia as the least developed and least integrated region in the world. This can be seen by the less number of intraregional trading, telecommunication access, energy distribution, but high number of poverty and trading tariffs.



• The worst impacts in the region are the failure of integrated sustainable development, ineffectiveness of SAARC as the regional mechanism, and military tension which can deliver the armed conflicts.

• SAARC as a regional mechanism has positive roles in maintaining regional cooperation in economy, social, culture, environment, politic, and security aspect.

• But the principle of not involving interstate conflict in the regional deliberations makes the conflicts within the region becoming worse and jeopardise the broader security environment.

• It is important to South Asia to rebuild the effective regional mechanism and integration process, but India has challenges as the biggest power.David Raja Marpaung. Associate Lecture

University of Indonesia, also Indonesia Politic and Defense Consultant.

email:[email protected]

Analysis of Intrastate Conflict in South Asia

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