A.M. Best Rating Methodology 2017 · A.M. Best Rating Methodology 2017 Stephen Irwin, Vice...
Transcript of A.M. Best Rating Methodology 2017 · A.M. Best Rating Methodology 2017 Stephen Irwin, Vice...
A.M. Best Rating Methodology 2017
Stephen Irwin, Vice President, A.M. Best Company 2016 AAM Investment Conference May 17, 2016
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Rating Methodology 2017
• Impetus for Change • Timeline • Building Block Approach • Rating Implications • Questions
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Impetus for Change
• Transparency & consistency • A move towards best practices • A way to integrate new tools
– Application of BCAR
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Tentative Timeline
Draft BCRM & PC BCAR criteria is
released for comment
Comment period will
include public
updates as specific
issues raised
Comment period will
be extended to coincide
with release of all BCAR
models
Comment period ends
Comments incorporated as necessary into BCRM
and all BCAR criteria
BCRM and BCAR criteria is published
and becomes effective
03/10/16
Remainder of 2016
12/31/16
2017
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An Updated BCRM
The BCRM will be the key source document for deriving ratings
• Issuer Credit Ratings • Financial Strength Ratings • Issue Ratings
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An Updated BCRM
Not a fundamental change to rating analysis
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An Updated BCRM
The BCRM is being updated but the fundamental rating drivers will remain the same
• Balance sheet strength • Operating performance • Business profile • Enterprise risk management
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AAM Investment Conference
The Building Block Approach
May 17, 2016
Country Risk
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline (e.g., bbb+)
Operating Performance
(+2/-3)
Business Profile
(+/-2)
Enterprise Risk Management
(+1/-4)
Comprehensive Adjustment
(+/-1)
Rating Enhancement
Published Issuer Credit Rating
A.M. Best’s Rating Process
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Balance Sheet Strength
Balance sheet strength is now broken down into several parts – Rating unit balance sheet strength assessment
– BCAR – Other qualitative and quantitative factors
– Holding company impact assessment – Country risk impact
Country Risk
Rating Unit Balance
Sheet Strength
Assessment
Holding Company
Impact Assessment
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline (e.g., bbb+)
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Additional Balance Sheet Factors
May 17, 2016
Country Risk
Holding Company Impact
Assessment
Balance Sheet Strength
Baseline
Rating Unit Balance Sheet
Strength Assessment
BCAR Stress Tests
Liquidity ALM
Quality of Capital Quality of Reinsurance
Reinsurance Dependence Appropriateness of Reinsurance Program
Fungibility of Capital Internal Capital Models
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Stochastic Based BCAR
Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) is a comprehensive quantitative tool that evaluates many of the risks to the balance sheet simultaneously and generates an overall estimate of the required level of capital to support those risks and compares it with available capital BCAR is a key tool in the assessment of balance sheet strength
• Not the sole determinant of Balance Sheet Strength • Not the sole determinant of the rating
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Summary of Changes
• Do not intend to change underlying view of the risks • Do not intend to change the main risk categories of the models Goals are to:
– Generate risk factors using stochastic simulations from probability curves & ESG
– Incorporate company specific detailed data from SRQ & statutory financial statements
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Summary of Changes
More sophisticated and faster software available now – Simulations / probability curves – Correlations / diversification – Company specific detail – Economic scenario generators (ESGs)
• A computer model that randomly simulates thousands of possible values for a variety of economic and financial variables over a series of selected timeframes
• An ESG does not predict a path the economy will follow but instead produces a collection of possible paths including some that have not yet been observed
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• New Metric – VaR (Value at Risk)
Summary of Changes
UW (Profit)/Loss as Percent of NPW
0%
100%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0 10% 20% 30% 40%
(Profit)/Loss as % of NPW
5% in tail
Breakeven
VaR 95UW Loss = 23% of NPW
Pro
babi
lity
of P
oten
tial
Sce
nari
o
95% of potential scenarios
VaR does not tell us about what’s in the tail so we need to look at more than one VaR
VaR 99.0 VaR
99.5
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Summary of Changes
• 5 scores calculated and published – instead of 1 • 95%, 99%, 99.5%, 99.8%, and 99.9% confidence levels
• New Calculation of BCAR – Formula change – Difference between Available Capital and Required Capital, as a ratio
to Available Capital – Better alignment with risk appetite/tolerance statements
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New Structure – PC BCAR
Available Capital (AC) Reported Capital (PHS) Equity Adjustments:
Unearned Premiums (DAC) Equalization/Contingency Reserves Loss Reserves Assets
Debt Adjustments: Surplus Notes Debt Service Requirements
Other Adjustments: Future Operating Losses Potential Loss Future Dividends Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets Minority Interests, etc.
Net Required Capital Gross Required Capital (GRC): (B1) Fixed Income Securities (B2) Equity Securities (B3) Interest Rate (B4) Credit (B5) Loss and LAE Reserves (B6) Net Premiums Written (B7) Business Risk (B8) Potential Catastrophe Loss Covariance Adjustment Net Required Capital (NRC)*
BCAR Ratio = (Available Capital – Net Required Capital) / Available Capital
*NRC= SQRT [ (B1)²+(B2)²+(B3)²+(0.5*B4)² +[(0.5*B4)+(B5)]²+(B6)² ] + B7 + B8
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Example of Impact to PC Score
Current PC BCAR Calculation (ratio to NRC) APHS (ex Potential Cat Losses) = $150M Potential Cat Losses = $30M NRC (ex Potential Cat Losses) = $80M BCAR = (150 – 30 ) / 80 = 120/80 = 150.0 Planned PC BCAR Calculation (ratio to Available Capital) Available Capital (ex Potential Cat Losses) = $150M Potential cat Losses = $30M NRC (ex Potential Cat Losses) = $80M NRC (incl Potential Cat Losses) = $110M BCAR = (150 – 110 ) / 150 = 40/150 = 26.7
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Example of Impact to PC Model
Current PC BCAR Calculation (ratio to NRC)
Potential Scores: Low of 0.0 to Max of 999.9 Wanted BCAR > 100.0 New PC BCAR Calculation (ratio to Available Capital)
Potential Scores: Low of -999.9 to Max of 100.0 Want BCAR > 0.0
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Display of BCAR Scores
36.7
26.7
16.7
6.7
-3.3 -10
0
10
20
30
40
50
VaR 95 VaR 99 VaR 99.5 VaR 99.8 VaR 99.9
BCAR
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Summary of Changes
• Bond Defaults (PC&LH) • Publicly Traded Common Stocks (PC&LH) • Other Asset Classes (PC&LH) • Interest Rate Risk (PC&LH) • Credit Risk – Reinsurance Recoverables (PC&LH) • Premium Risk (PC) • Reserve Risk (PC)
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Investment Risk (PC & LH)
• Fixed Income Securities – Default Risk – Bonds – Mortgage Loans – Preferred Stocks
• Equities – Market Value Volatility – Publicly Traded Common Stocks – Real Estate – Schedule BA assets
• Affiliated and Private investments receive 100% risk charge
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Interest Rate Risk (PC)
• Interest Rate Risk – Risk of having to sell fixed income assets when market values are
lower – Exposure to a rise in interest rates over next one year – Liquidity risk during the upcoming year – Risk is driven by sudden shock event
• PC - Usually natural catastrophe, or man-made, could be economic
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Credit Risk (PC & LH)
• Credit Risk – Risk of default on:
• Reinsurance recoverables (recov on pd & unpd, ceded UPR) – Reinsurance Recoverable Charge:
• Credit risk charge (ability to pay) – Reinsurer AMB issuer credit rating – Duration of recoverables – Uses stochastic simulation software and impairment table
• Credit Risk Charges reduced for: – Recovery on default (50%) – Funds Held (100%) – Acceptable LOCs & Trusts (up to 90%) – Discounted to present value
– Dispute Risk calculation remains
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Reserve Risk (PC)
• Risk of unanticipated adverse development on net loss & loss-adjustment expense (LAE) reserves
• Reserve Risk Factors – Uses stochastic simulation software
• probability distributions • correlation matrix
• Further adjustment to required capital for Excessive Growth
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Premium Risk (PC)
• Risk that pricing of business written next year will be inadequate – Potential for Underwriting Loss on one more year’s worth of business – This is the one-year look forward in terms of adding additional
exposure – Current year’s NWP used as proxy for next year
• Premium Risk Factors – Uses stochastic simulation software
• probability distributions • correlation matrix
• Further adjustment to required capital for Excessive Growth
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• Risks not reflected in balance sheet that may affect surplus – Contingent Liabilities – Non-controlled assets – Unfunded Pension & other post employment/ retirement benefits – Separate Account Assets – Etc.
• Risk factors determined by analyst • Use same required capital at all VaRs
Business Risk (PC & LH)
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Potential Catastrophe Loss (PC)
• Natural Catastrophe – Update natural catastrophe approach –
• Per Occurrence • Total all perils • Measured at various VaR levels • Risk added to Net Required Capital • Will continue stress test approach • Reinstatement premium and Tax adjustments remain
• Terrorism and other stress tests remain
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• Using the 5 BCARs below, find the highest confidence level where the BCAR is still Greater than Zero
• Then, use that confidence level in BCAR guidance table to determine initial Balance Sheet Strength assessment
71.2
50.3
28.7
-18.7
-69.7 -80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
VaR 95 VaR 99 VaR 99.5 VaR 99.8 VaR 99.9
Published BCARs
Applying BCAR Scores
Increasing confidence levels
Highest Confidence Level where BCAR is still positive = 99.5
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• Key for rating unit evaluation • BCAR run at the rating unit • Confidence level results tie in to assessment
Metric Confidence Level (%) BCAR Implied Consolidated
Balance Sheet Strength
VaR 99.9 Greater than zero Strongest
VaR 99.8 Greater than zero Very Strong
VaR 99.5 Greater than zero Strong
VaR 99 Greater than zero Adequate
VaR 95 Greater than zero Weak
VaR 95 Less than zero Very Weak
Applying BCAR Scores
= Initial Indication
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Catastrophe Stress Test
If a cat loss occurs, what would the BCAR scores look like? 1. Reduce Available Capital
• 1-in-100 year Net PML from Per occurrence, Total all perils • Reinstatement premium and tax adjustments remain
2. Increase Recoverables by 40% of ceded loss • From 1-in-100 year PML from Per occurrence, Total all perils • Adjust credit risk factors if needed
3. Increase Net loss reserves by 40% of pretax net PML • From 1-in-100 year PML from Per occurrence, Total all perils
4. See how far BCAR scores drop at all confidence levels
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60.1
44.7 35.5
22.9
8.7 40.1
22.7 10.5
-7.1
-31.3 -40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
VaR 95 VaR 99 VaR 99.5 VaR 99.8 VaR 99.9
BCAR
Published BCAR Stressed BCAR
Catastrophe Stress Test
Need to assess Financial Flexibility to determine impact.
How far did the curve shift down, is this a material drop, and how do you manage this drop?
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AAM Investment Conference
Holding Company Impact Assessment
May 17, 2016
Country Risk
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline
Rating Unit Balance Sheet
Strength Assessment
Consolidated BCAR Financial Leverage
Operating Leverage Coverage Financial
Flexibility/Liquidity Intangible Assets
Holding Company Impact
Assessment
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Holding Company Impact Assessment
• Financial Leverage – Unadjusted / Adjusted
• Operating Leverage • Coverage
– Interest & Fixed-Charge Coverage • Financial Flexibility / Liquidity
– Analysis of Sources and Uses – Access to Capital – Asset Allocation/Investment Risk
• Intangible Assets • Non-Rated and/or Non-Regulated Affiliates
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Balance Sheet Strength Assessment
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Combined Balance Sheet Strength Assessment (Lead Rating Unit & Holding Company)
Holding Company
Lead
Rat
ing
Uni
t Positive Neutral Negative Very Negative
Strongest Strongest Strongest Very Strong Adequate Very Strong Strongest Very Strong Strong Weak
Strong Very Strong Strong Adequate Very Weak Adequate Strong Adequate Weak Very Weak
Weak Adequate Weak Very Weak Very Weak Very Weak Weak Very Weak Very Weak Very Weak
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The Baseline Assessment
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Overall Balance Sheet Strength Assessment
Com
bine
d Ba
lanc
e Sh
eet A
sses
smen
t (R
atin
g U
nit/
Hol
ding
Com
pany
)
Country Risk Tier
CRT-1 CRT-2 CRT-3 CRT-4 CRT-5
Strongest a+/a a+/a a/a- a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb
Very Strong a/a- a/a- a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb bbb/bbb-
Strong a-/bbb+ a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb/bbb-/bb+ bbb-/bb+/bb
Adequate bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb-/bb+/bb bb+/bb/bb- bb-/b+/b
Weak bb+/bb/bb- bb+/bb/bb- bb-/b+/b b+/b/b- b/b-/ccc+
Very Weak b+ and below b+ and below b- and below ccc+ and below ccc and below
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AAM Investment Conference
The Building Block Approach
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Country Risk
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline bbb+
Operating Performance
(+2/-3)
Business Profile
(+/-2)
Enterprise Risk Management
(+1/-4)
Comprehensive Adjustment
(+/-1)
Rating Enhancement
Published Issuer Credit Rating
A.M. Best’s Rating Process
Operating Performance
The BCRM is being updated but the fundamental rating drivers will remain the same
• Underwriting Performance • Investment Performance • Total Operating Earnings • Prospective Financial Forecasts • Other Considerations
– Unique to LOB, region of operation, structure
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Operating Performance Benchmarks
• Benchmarks ensure operating performance metrics for each insurer are being evaluated in proper framework
• Can be created using: – Industry composites/sub-composites – ICR composites – Other customized parameters
• May be appropriate to compare a rating against >1 benchmark • Rating Committee has flexibility in determining the appropriate
benchmark(s) for each rating unit • Various insurance organizational types will have differing benchmarking
metrics
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Assessment Adjustment (Notches) Key Operating Performance Characteristics
Very Strong +2 Historical operating performance is exceptionally strong and consistent. Trends are positive and prospective operating performance is expected to be exceptionally strong. Volatility of key metrics is low.
Strong +1 Historical operating performance is strong and consistent. Trends are neutral/slightly positive and prospective operating performance is expected to be strong. Volatility of key metrics is low to moderate.
Adequate 0 Historical operating performance and trends are neutral. Prospective operating performance is expected to be neutral. Volatility of key metrics is moderate.
Weak -1 Historical operating performance is poor. Trends are neutral/slightly negative and prospective operating performance is expected to be poor. Volatility of key metrics is high.
Very Weak -2/3 Historical operating performance is very poor. Trends are negative and prospective operating performance is expected to be very poor. Volatility of key metrics is high.
Depending on a company’s operating performance, the baseline can be adjusted up or down
– Using appropriate benchmark – Looking at level, trend and volatility
Baseline Adjusted for Performance
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AAM Investment Conference
The Building Block Approach
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Country Risk
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline bbb+
Operating Performance
“Strong” (+1)
a-
Business Profile
(+/-2)
Enterprise Risk Management
(+1/-4)
Comprehensive Adjustment
(+/-1)
Rating Enhancement
Published Issuer Credit Rating
A.M. Best’s Rating Process
Business Profile
The BCRM is being updated but the fundamental rating drivers will remain the same
Sub-Assessment Positive Neutral Negative
Product/Geographic Concentration
Significant diversification of product line /geographies
Moderate diversification of product lines / geographies
Insufficient diversification of product lines / geographies
Market Position Increase profitable market share at a sustainable rate Sustain profitable market share Unable to sustain profitable
market share
Pricing Sophistication & Data Quality Provides Competitive Advantage No Competitive
Advantage/Disadv. Lack of sophistication creates
disadvantage
Product Risk Low Risk Offerings Average Risk Offerings High Risk Offerings
Degree of Competition Low Competition Average Competition High Competition
Management Quality Consistently achieves forecasts & targets
Occasionally falls short of forecasts & targets
Provides unreliable forecasts & targets
Regulatory, Event & Market Risks Very Low or Significantly Reduced Moderate and Stable Very High or Significantly
Increased
Distribution Channels Created a significant competitive
advantage thru distribution channels
Has not created a significant competitive advantage thru
distribution channels
Faces a significant competitive disadvantage with regards to
distribution
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Business Profile Assessment
Adjustment (Notches) Key Characteristics of Business Profile
Very Favorable +2
The company's market leadership position is unquestionable, demonstrated, and defensible with high brand recognition. Distribution is seen as a competitive advantage; business lines are non-correlated and generally lower risk. Its management capabilities and data management are very strong.
Favorable +1
The company is a market leader with strong business trends and good control over distribution. It has diversified operations in key markets that have high to moderate barriers to entry with low competition. It has a strong management team that is able to meet projections and utilize data effectively.
Neutral 0 The company is not a market leader, but is viewed as competitive in chosen markets. It has some concentration and/or limited control of distribution. It has moderate product risk but limited severity and frequency of loss. Its use of technology is evolving and its business spread of risk is adequate.
Limited -1
The company has a lack of diversification in geographic and/or product lines; its control over distribution is limited and undifferentiated. It faces high/increasing competition with low barriers to entry and elevated product risk. Management is unable to utilize data effectively or consistently in business decisions.
Very Limited -2 The company faces high competition and low barriers to entry. It has high concentration in commodity or higher-risk products with very limited geographic diversity. It has weak data management. Country risk may factor into its elevated business profile risks.
Baseline Adjusted for Profile
• Sub-assessments are qualitatively combined by analyst into a single business profile assessment
• Ultimate “weights” of each sub-assessment will vary depending on which metrics will have biggest impact on future financial strength
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AAM Investment Conference
The Building Block Approach
May 17, 2016 46
Country Risk
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline bbb+
Operating Performance
“Strong” (+1)
a-
Business Profile
“Favorable” (+1) a
Enterprise Risk Management
(+1/-4)
Comprehensive Adjustment
(+/-1)
Rating Enhancement
Published Issuer Credit Rating
A.M. Best’s Rating Process
ERM
The BCRM is being updated but the fundamental rating drivers will remain the same • Product & Underwriting Risk
• Reserving Risk
• Concentration Risk
• Reinsurance Risk
• Financial Flexibility Risk
• Investment Risk
• Legislative/Regulatory/Judicial/Economic Risk
• Management Risk
• Operational Risk
• Risk Appetite/Stress Testing
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Baseline Adjusted for ERM
• Very strong risk management capability with a matching profile or strong risk management with a lower profile earns positive adjustment
• Risk management capability lower than the risk profile earns negative adjustment • Downside spread reflects A.M. Best’s concern that truly weak ERM can
disproportionately impact financial strength
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ERM Assessment
Adjustment (Notches) Key Characteristics of ERM
Very Strong +1 Risk management capabilities are excellent and are more than adequate for the risk profile of the company.
Adequate 0 Risk management capabilities are good and are adequate for the risk profile of the company.
Weak -1/2 Risk management capabilities are insufficient given the risk profile of the company.
Very Weak -3/4 Risk management capabilities contain severe deficiencies relative to the risk profile of the company.
AAM Investment Conference
The Building Block Approach
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Country Risk
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline bbb+
Operating Performance
“Strong” (+1)
a-
Business Profile
“Favorable” (+1) a
Enterprise Risk Management
“Adequate” (+0)
a
Comprehensive Adjustment
(+/-1)
Rating Enhancement
Published Issuer Credit Rating
A.M. Best’s Rating Process
Comprehensive Adjustment
• Evaluation of key rating factors includes parameters which place limits on any one factor
• Recognizes a truly uncommon strength/weakness that is not captured through the rating process
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Comprehensive Adjustment
Adjustment (Notches) Key Characteristics
Positive +1 The company has uncommon strengths that exceed what has been captured throughout the rating process.
None 0 The company's strengths and weaknesses have been accurately captured throughout the rating process.
Negative -1 The company has uncommon weaknesses that exceed what has been captured throughout the rating process.
AAM Investment Conference
The Building Block Approach
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Country Risk
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline bbb+
Operating Performance
“Strong” (+1)
a-
Business Profile
“Favorable” (+1) a
Enterprise Risk Management
“Adequate” (+0)
a
Comprehensive Adjustment
“None” (+0)
a
Rating Enhancement
Published Issuer Credit Rating
A.M. Best’s Rating Process
Rating Enhancement
• Non-lead rating units may be eligible for partial rating enhancement based on benefits it receives from being affiliated with the lead rating unit.
• Rating drag can also occur from negative impact of the lead rating unit on the non-lead unit.
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Rating Enhancement/Drag
Adjustment (Notches) Key Characteristics of Rating Enhancement/Drag
Typical Lift + 1 to + 4 The non-lead rating unit either receives explicit support from the broader organization or is deemed materially important within the broader organization as demonstrated by its level of integration.
Neutral 0 The non-lead rating unit does not have explicit support from the broader organization and is not considered materially important within the organization.
Typical Drag - 1 to - 4 The non-lead rating unit is negatively impacted by its association with the weaker affiliates of the broader organization.
AAM Investment Conference
The Building Block Approach
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Country Risk
Balance Sheet
Strength
Baseline bbb+
Operating Performance
“Strong” (+1)
a-
Business Profile
“Favorable” (+1) a
Enterprise Risk Management
“Adequate” (+0)
a
Comprehensive Adjustment
“None” (+0)
a
Rating Enhancement
“N/A” (+0)
a
Published Issuer Credit Rating
A.M. Best’s Rating Process
Rating recommendation of “a”
Rating Implications
• BCRM is NOT a means to change ratings although some ratings may change
• Analyst will communicate any potential rating issues as they become apparent during comment period
• Ratings impacted will be placed under review at end of comment period – Need to be resolved within 6 months after under review
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AAM Investment Conference
Takeaways for Risk Managers
• Be open in your discussions of your view of risk – Risk appetite, tolerances, sensitivities, emerging risks
• Talk about how aggregation of risk is managed • How you manage the tail • View of and use of models
– Variability, credibility, validation, stress scenarios • Other issues
– Cyber risk
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AAM Investment Conference
Comment Feedback
• Most comments received to date are on BCAR • Goal remains consistency and transparency
– Reviewing areas where more visibility needed – Look to add detail where questions have arisen
• Events farther out in the tail are being reviewed for use in the balance sheet evaluation – Issues of consistency and availability of data globally
• Reviewing the use of stochastic simulation within the modeling of individual companies
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AAM Investment Conference
Comment Feedback
• Looking for additional market feedback on use of models, understanding of BCRM
• Do you fully understand the Building Block approach outlined in the BCRM and is it fully transparent?
• Are there any parameters outlined for Balance Sheet Strength, Operating Performance, Business Profile, ERM, or Comprehensive Adjustment you disagree with?
• What are your views on using VaR metrics for risk modeling in general? Do your views concerning the value of these metrics change as one goes out further into the tail (e.g. VaR 99.8 and 99.9)?
May 17, 2016 57
AAM Investment Conference
Comment Feedback
• Please email comments directly to methodology in-box if it is a comment on the criteria
• Questions specifically about BCAR/BCRM impact to your company should be directed to your analyst
• All comments will be published unless confidentiality requested • Aggregation of comments in process
– Just because you haven’t gotten a response yet does not mean it has been lost!
• Comment period ends June 30, 2016
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