Alok Ind - ICICI Direct

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    May 22, 2012

    ICICI Securities Ltd|Retail Equity Research

    Result Update

    WHATS CHANGEDPRICE TARGET ........................................................................... Changed from | 25 to | 21

    EPS (FY13E) ............................................................................. Changed from | 7.2 to | 6.1

    EPS (FY14E) ............................................................................................ Introduced at | 8.2

    RATING....................................................................................... Changed from Buy to HoldAnd the dilution continuesAlok Industries (Alok) Q4FY12 numbers were broadly in line with ourestimates with operating margins beating our estimates by over 200 bps.Alok reported one of the slowest growth in sales in over four years on theback of lower domestic sales. While exports grew 40.3 YoY (on theback of rupee depreciation) to | 814.9 crore, domestic sales grew only10.3 YoY to | 1,780.5 crore. Going forward, we expect the companysrevenues to grow at a lower pace as compared to the last four years asthe company has not planned any major capacity addition and also due tothe impact of a higher base. While we expect revenues to grow at a CAGRof 22.8 during FY12-14E, PAT is expected to increase at a CAGR of39.3 on the back of savings in interest costs. Considering the delay inland monetisation and the ongoing dilution, we have downgraded Alokfrom BUY to HOLD.Real estate monetisation: A small beginningAlok has closed two deals (a) eight floors out of 20 floors of Peninsula

    Business Park, Lower Parel have been sold and the token consideration

    for the same has been received and (b) three floors out of eight in

    Ashford Centre, Lower Parel have been leased and the earnest money

    deposits have also been received.

    Dilution dilemmaThe Board has approved a preferential allotment of up to 2.75 crore

    equity shares and up to five crore warrants to promoters/promoter group

    company. In the past also, the promoters have diluted their stake to fund

    the capex requirements. While the CAGR in revenues and equity during

    FY07-12E has been ~45%, profits have only grown at a CAGR of 17.6%

    due to the burgeoning debt, which led to higher interest outgo.

    ValuationThe stock is likely to witness a multiple re-rating when the company

    reduces its debt through land monetisation and, thereby, saves on

    interest expenses. We have valued the stock at | 21 (based on an average

    arrived at by assigning a multiple of 0.4x FY14E book value and 2.5x

    FY14E EPS). Considering the ongoing equity dilution and high debt levels,

    we remain cautious on Alok. Therefore, we have, downgraded Alok

    Industries from BUY to HOLDwith a revised target price of | 21.Exhibit 1:Financial Performance

    (| Crore) Q4FY12 Q4FY12E Q4FY11 Q3FY12 QoQ(Ch %) YoY(Ch%)

    Net Sales 2,595.4 2,753.6 2,195.9 2,386.7 8.7 18.2

    EBITDA Margin (%) 28.1 26.0 25.4 26.9 117 bps 266 bps

    Depreciation 173.6 174.7 160.0 187.5 (7.4) 8.5Interest 334.6 276.4 166.7 271.3 23.3 100.7

    Other Income 8.7 2.7 24.3 2.0 330.8 (64.4)

    Reported PAT 283.5 279.8 159.5 (36.6) LP 77.7

    EPS (|) 3.4 3.6 2.0 (0.5) LP 69.5

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Note: LP -Loss to Profit

    Alok Industries (ALOTEX)

    |19ting matrix

    ing : Hold

    get : | 21

    get Period : 12 months

    ential Upside : 10%

    y Financials

    Crore) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

    t Sales 6,376 8,901 11,112 13,418

    ITDA 1,750 2,559 2,734 3,166

    t Profit 404 381 519 739

    luation summary

    FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

    (x) 3.7 4.1 3.1 2.3

    rget PE (x) 4.0 4.5 3.4 2.5

    to EBITDA(x) 5.7 4.5 4.5 3.9ce to book (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

    NW (%) 13.1 10.4 12.7 15.5

    CE (%) 9.7 12.6 12.0 12.9

    ock data

    arket Capitalisation | 1507 crore

    bt (Dec-11) | 11494 crore

    sh (Dec-11) | 1578 crore

    | 11423 crore

    week H/L (|) 29 / 16

    uity capital | 826.3 crore

    ce value | 10F Holding (%) 11.3

    Holding (%) 15.2

    ce movement

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    May-12Feb-12Nov-11Aug-11Jun-11

    4,000

    4,500

    5,000

    5,500

    6,000

    Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

    alysts nameharat [email protected]

    hvani Modi

    [email protected]

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    Q4FY12 Result Highlights Aloks Q4FY12 topline was marginally lower than our estimate.

    The company reported a topline of | 2,595.4 crore, up 18.2% YoY

    as against our estimate of | 2,753.6 crore

    The operational performance of the company came as a positivesurprise. The operating margin increased by 266 bps YoY on the

    back of reduced other expenditure

    For nine months ended December 2011, Alok had provided forMTM on forex loans to the tune of | 358.1 crore. However, since

    the rupee appreciated in Q4FY12, the company wrote back

    provisions worth | 227.6 crore

    On the back of the write-back, the company reported a stronggrowth in PAT despite doubling of interest cost. Alok reported a

    PAT of | 283.5 crore, up 77.7% YoY (I-direct estimate: | 279.8

    crore)

    Exhibit 2:Topline growth slows down for first time in over four years

    1,471

    1,099

    1,452 1,609

    2,196

    1,645

    2,1282,387

    2,595

    -

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12

    |

    crore

    Sales

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Exhibit 3:Exports performance trend

    608

    436

    606 595 581 602

    740 770 81541.3

    39.741.7

    37.0

    26.5

    36.6 31.432.3

    34.8

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12

    |

    crore

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    %

    Exports As a % of Sales (RHS)

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Alok reported the slowest ever topline growth for the firsttime in over four years. The woven fabric segment,

    garments segment and polyester yarn segment grew by

    31.7%, 73.8% and 52.2% YoY, respectively. However, the

    yarn segment revenues de-grew by 66.9% YoY

    While exports continued to grow in absolute terms, the

    share in the overall sales mix has been on the decline

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    Exhibit 4:Polyester segment continues to gain share in revenue mix

    37

    6044 45 49

    15

    16

    14 12 12

    17

    16

    26 2532

    26

    2 13 17 5

    -

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    Q4FY08 Q4FY09 Q4FY10 Q4FY11 Q4FY12

    Apparel Fabric Home Textile POY & Texturising Yarn Cotton Spinning Garments

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Exhibit 5:EBITDA margin trend

    29.129.7

    28.6

    25.925.4

    27.5

    31.7

    26.9

    28.1

    24.6

    23.6

    22

    24

    26

    28

    30

    32

    Q4FY10

    Q1FY11

    Q2FY11

    Q3FY11

    Q4FY11

    Q1FY12

    Q2FY12

    Q3FY12

    Q4FY12

    FY13E

    FY14E

    %

    EBITDA Margin

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Exhibit 6:Costs as a percentage of salesParticulars Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12

    Raw Material Cost 46.7 52.2 53.4 56.9 49.0 45.8 47.0 54.4

    Employee Cost 3.8 3.1 3.5 2.6 3.3 2.9 3.1 2.5

    Other Expenses 19.8 16.1 17.3 15.1 20.2 19.6 23.0 15.0

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Despite the increasing share of the polyester segment, the

    operating margin rose by 276 bps on the back of reduced

    other expenditure

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    Exhibit 7:Net profit trend

    95.3

    46.5

    79.8 89.8

    159.5

    57.8 74.4

    (36.6)

    283.5

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12

    |c

    rore

    Net Profit

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Exhibit 8:Segmental analysis Quarterly)Unit Volume Value Realisation Volume Value Realisation Volume Value Realisation

    | crore |/unit | crore |/unit

    Cotton Spinning MT 3,046 54.4 178,668 502 12.5 248,670 507.0 336.1 (28.2)

    Raw Cotton MT 5,696 54.9 96,439 21,597 353.7 163,756 (73.6) (84.5) (41.1)

    Woven Fabric Lac Mtrs 1,093 1,150.6 10,529,326 808 913.2 11,304,003 35.3 26.0 (6.9)

    Knitted Fabric MT 1,900 57.2 301,249 1,986 67.8 341,197 (4.3) (15.5) (11.7)

    Home Textiles Pcs 2,443,777 212.6 870 2,969,185 212.8 717 (17.7) (0.1) 21.3

    Terry Towel Pcs 4,133,792 47.8 116 5,078,779 37.2 73 (18.6) 28.7 58.1

    Polyester Chips MT 22,019 177.9 80,773 5,834 53.9 92,464 277.4 229.7 (12.6)

    POY & Texturising MT 68,418 653.2 95,474 47,024 480.7 102,221 45.5 35.9 (6.6)Garments Pcs 3,103,977 63.2 203 1,967,923 32.9 167 57.7 91.9 21.7

    Handkerchief Pcs 985,147 4.3 44 2,097,735 4.8 23 (53.0) (8.8) 94.1

    Q4FY12 Q4FY11 % Change

    Segment

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Exhibit 9:Segmental analysis Annual)Unit Volume Value Realisation Volume Value Realisation Volume Value Realisation

    | crore |/unit | crore |/unit

    Cotton Spinning MT 6,870 145.6 211,907 6,070 103.5 170,472 13.2 40.7 24.3

    Raw Cotton MT 10,742 117.7 109,532 31,151 429.8 137,968 (65.5) (72.6) (20.6)

    Woven Fabric Lac Mtrs 3,446 3,669.6 10,650,008 2,650 2,718.8 10,258,264 30.0 35.0 3.8

    Knitted Fabric MT 8,305 268.2 322,921 8,613 241.6 280,443 (3.6) 11.0 15.1

    Home Textiles Pcs 10,471,091 916.5 875 12,023,432 889.5 740 (12.9) 3.0 18.3

    Terry Towel Pcs 17,154,176 160.0 93 13,561,694 93.7 69 26.5 70.8 35.0

    Polyester Chips MT 85,183 666.9 78,295 23,204 145.3 62,636 267.1 358.9 25.0

    POY & Texturising MT 230,979 2,284.5 98,905 179,057 1,542.8 86,165 29.0 48.1 14.8

    Garments Pcs 8,383,584 191.2 228 7,986,278 138.0 173 5.0 38.5 31.9

    Handkerchief Pcs 5,922,151 20.8 35 9,370,892 21.4 23 (36.8) (2.9) 53.7

    % Change

    Segment

    FY12 FY11

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Alok had incurred a loss of | 36.6 crore in Q3FY12 due to

    MTM provisions made. Considering that the rupee

    appreciated in Q4FY12 over Q3FY12, the company wrote

    back provisions to the tune of | 227.6 crore, resulting in a

    strong PAT growth in Q4FY12

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    Exhibit 10:Revised estimatesFY14E

    Particulars (| crore) Earlier Revised % Change Introduced

    Sales 11,012.8 11,112.0 0.9 13,417.7

    Operating Profit 2,710.2 2,734.1 0.9 3,166.3

    Margin (%) 24.6 24.6 0 bps 23.6

    Net Profit 568.8 518.6 -8.8 738.9

    EPS (|) 7.2 6.1 -15.9 8.2

    FY13E

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Valuation

    The stock is likely to witness a multiple re-rating when the company

    reduces its debt through land monetisation and, thereby, saves on

    interest expenses. We have valued the stock at | 21 (based on an average

    arrived at by assigning a multiple of 0.4x FY14E book value and 2.5x

    FY14E EPS). Considering the ongoing equity dilution and high debt levels,

    we remain cautious on Alok. Therefore, we have downgraded AlokIndustries from BUY to HOLDwith a revised target price of | 21.

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    Financial summaryProfit and loss statement

    (| Crore)

    (Year-end March) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

    Total operating Income 6,388.4 8,900.9 11,112.0 13,417.7

    Growth (%) 48.3 39.6 24.8 20.8

    Cost of Goods Sold 3,997.7 5,401.4 6,911.1 8,332.7

    Employee Expenses 199.8 267.3 355.6 496.5

    Selling Expenses 119.9 185.0 255.6 348.9

    Administrative Expenses 321.1 488.1 855.6 1,073.4

    Miscellaneous Expenses - - - -

    Total Operating Expenditure 4,638.5 6,341.8 8,377.9 10,251.4

    EBITDA 1,749.9 2,559.1 2,734.1 3,166.3

    Growth (%) 44.8 46.2 6.8 15.8

    Depreciation 518.8 713.4 877.4 974.7

    EBIT 1,231.1 1,845.6 1,856.7 2,191.6

    Interest 654.4 1,149.6 1,104.9 1,118.2

    Other Income 6.4 65.7 22.2 29.5

    PBT 583.2 640.5 774.0 1,102.9

    Total Tax 178.8 260.0 255.4 363.9

    PAT 404.4 380.5 518.6 738.9

    Growth (%) 63.5 (5.9) 36.3 42.5

    EPS (|) 5.1 4.6 6.1 8.2

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Cash flow statement(| Crore)

    (Year-end March) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

    Profit before Tax 583.2 640.5 774.0 1,102.9

    Add: Depreciation 518.8 713.4 877.4 974.7

    (Inc)/dec in Current Assets -1,018.6 -2,027.3 -1,747.4 -1,717.6

    Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 517.3 405.3 165.0 110.0

    Taxes Paid -117.9 -260.0 -193.5 -275.7

    Others 652.6 1,149.6 1,104.9 1,118.2

    CF from operating activities 1,135.5 621.5 980.4 1,312.5

    (Inc)/dec in Investments 63.7 -12.8 -27.0 -103.5

    (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -1,857.1 -1,156.0 -431.1 -249.9

    Others -275.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

    CF from investing activities -2,068.6 -1,168.8 -458.0 -353.3

    Issue/(Buy back) of Equity - 38.49 105.00 -

    Inc/(dec) in loan funds 1,144.3 1,840.8 136.3 794.2

    Dividend paid & dividend tax -23.0 -24.8 -34.2 -36.2

    Others -751.9 -1,149.6 -1,104.9 -1,118.2

    CF from financing activities 369.4 704.9 -897.8 -360.2

    Net Cash flow -563.7 157.7 -375.4 599.0

    Opening Cash 673.4 109.7 267.3 -108.1

    Margin money deposits 1,031.6 1,310.9 1,145.7 1,147.0

    Closing Cash 1,141.2 1,578.2 1,037.6 1,637.9

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Balance sheet(| Crore)

    (Year-end March) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

    Liabilities

    Equity Capital 787.8 826.3 853.8 903.8

    Reserve and Surplus 2,309.8 2,828.2 3,217.5 3,864.1

    Total Shareholders funds 3,097.6 3,654.5 4,071.2 4,767.8

    Total Debt 9,653.6 11,494.3 11,630.6 12,424.9

    Deferred Tax Liability 507.7 637.7 699.7 787.9

    Minority Interest / Others - - - -

    Total Liabilities 13,258.8 15,786.5 16,401.5 17,980.6

    Assets

    Gross Block 9,014.3 10,317.4 10,967.4 11,467.4

    Less: Acc Depreciation 1,587.1 2,300.6 3,177.9 4,152.7

    Net Block 7,427.2 8,016.8 7,789.4 7,314.7

    Capital WIP 1,061.2 914.2 695.2 445.1Total Fixed Assets 8,488.4 8,931.0 8,484.6 7,759.8

    Investments 167.2 179.9 206.9 310.4

    Inventory 2,002.6 3,115.3 3,778.1 4,595.6

    Debtors 1,740.2 2,314.2 2,911.3 3,622.8

    Loans and Advances 727.5 1,068.1 1,555.7 1,744.3

    Other Current Assets - - - -

    Cash 1,141.2 1,578.2 1,037.6 1,637.9

    Total Current Assets 5,611.6 8,075.9 9,282.6 11,600.5

    Creditors 862.8 1,335.1 1,500.1 1,610.1

    Provisions 145.3 70.0 75.0 80.0

    Total Current Liabilities 1,008.1 1,405.1 1,575.1 1,690.1

    Net Current Assets 4,603.5 6,670.7 7,707.5 9,910.4

    Others Assets (0.2) 4.9 2.4 -

    Application of Funds 13,258.8 15,786.5 16,401.5 17,980.6

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Key ratios(Year-end March) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

    Per share data (|)

    EPS 5.1 4.6 6.1 8.2

    Cash EPS 11.7 13.2 16.4 19.0

    BV 39.3 44.2 47.1 52.8

    DPS 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04

    Cash Per Share 14.5 19.1 12.2 18.1

    Operating Ratios

    EBITDA Margin (%) 27.4 28.8 24.6 23.6

    PBT Margin (%) 9.1 7.2 7.0 8.2

    PAT Margin (%) 6.3 4.3 4.7 5.5

    Inventory days 114.6 127.8 124.1 125.0

    Debtor days 99.6 94.9 95.6 98.6

    Creditor days 53.2 54.8 49.3 43.8

    Return Ratios (%)

    RoE 13.1 10.4 12.7 15.5RoCE 9.7 12.6 12.0 12.9

    RoIC 3.5 2.8 3.6 4.8

    Valuation Ratios (x)

    P/E 3.7 4.1 3.1 2.3

    EV / EBITDA 5.7 4.5 4.5 3.9

    EV / Net Sales 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9

    Market Cap / Sales 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

    Price to Book Value 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

    Solvency Ratios

    Debt/EBITDA 5.5 4.5 4.3 3.9

    Debt / Equity 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6

    Current Ratio 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.9

    Quick Ratio 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.1

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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    ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Textiles)Sales (| Crore) EPS (|) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW(%) RoCE (%)

    Idirect Code ALOTEX CMP (|) 19 FY12E 8,900.9 4.6 4.1 4.5 10.4 12.6

    Target (|) 21 FY13E 11,112.0 6.1 3.1 4.5 12.7 12.0

    MCap 1507 Upside (%) 10 FY14E 13,417.7 8.2 2.3 3.9 15.5 12.9

    Idirect Code BOMRAY CMP (|) 242 FY11 2,254.8 16.0 15.2 11.3 8.5 7.0

    Target (|) 244 FY12E 2,666.4 15.9 15.2 10.3 7.5 7.3

    MCap 3256 Upside (%) 1 FY13E 3,386.3 25.7 9.4 8.7 10.3 8.7

    Idirect Code JBFIND CMP (|) 114 FY11 6,465.6 76.2 1.5 2.5 47.5 30.7

    Target (|) 120 FY12E 7,040.1 37.6 3.0 4.8 17.4 16.8

    MCap 820 Upside (%) 6 FY13E 8,183.1 44.4 2.6 5.4 17.7 13.2

    Idirect Code KEWKIR CMP (|) 603 FY12E 301.9 42.3 14.3 8.9 22.5 27.3

    Target (|) 611 FY13E 364.9 51.9 11.6 6.9 23.6 29.2

    MCap 743 Upside (%) 1 FY14E 436.6 61.1 9.9 5.7 23.4 29.3

    Idirect Code LOVLIN CMP (|) 314 FY12E 145.7 10.5 29.9 23.5 11.4 14.4

    Target (|) 350 FY13E 175.4 13.9 22.6 18.3 13.5 16.5

    MCap 314 Upside (%) 11 FY14E 209.9 17.9 17.5 14.2 15.4 18.4

    Idirect Code PAGIND CMP (|) 3054 FY12E 686.0 78.2 39.1 23.8 52.8 39.0

    Target (|) 3106 FY13E 892.0 106.2 28.8 17.9 55.3 43.5

    MCap 3406 Upside (%) 2 FY14E 1,099.6 135.1 22.6 14.2 56.2 47.0

    Idirect Code RUPACO CMP (|) 140 FY12E 728.1 5.0 27.7 15.4 20.5 20.2

    Target (|) Unrated FY13E 835.0 6.2 22.6 13.2 21.3 21.5

    MCap 1113 Upside (%) - FY14E 948.6 7.8 18.0 10.9 22.6 23.8

    Idirect Code MAHSPI CMP (|) 213 FY12E 4,640.7 22.6 9.4 6.4 7.2 7.7

    Target (|) 229 FY13E 5,318.6 29.3 7.3 4.4 8.8 8.9

    MCap 1352 Upside (%) 8 FY14E 6,242.2 38.2 5.6 4.1 10.7 9.8

    Vardhman Textiles

    Bombay Rayon Fashions

    JBF Industr ies

    Alok Industr ies

    Kewal Kiran Clothing

    Rupa Company

    Page Industr ies

    Lovable Lingerie

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    Exhibit 11:Recommendation History

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    May-12Apr-12Feb-12Jan-12Nov-11Oct-11Aug-11Jul-11Jun-11

    Price Target Price

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Exhibit 12:Recent ReleasesDate Event CMP Target Price Rating

    5-Jul-11 Q1FY12 Preview 26 28 HOLD

    2-Aug-11 Q1FY12 Result Update 24 28 BUY

    5-Oct-11 Q2FY12 Preview 18 28 BUY

    1-Nov-11 Q2FY12 Result Update 21 28 BUY

    6-Jan-12 Q3FY12 Preview 18 28 BUY

    16-Feb-12 Q3FY12 Result Update 22 25 BUY

    4-Apr-12 Q4FY12 Preview 21 25 BUY Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Exhibit 13:The road ahead...

    6,3

    76

    8,9

    01

    11,1

    12

    13,4

    18

    404 381 519 7392,5

    59

    2,7

    34

    3,1

    66

    1,7

    50

    5.14.6

    6.1

    8.2

    -

    4,000

    8,000

    12,000

    16,000

    FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

    |c

    rore

    -

    3

    6

    9

    |

    Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (RHS)

    Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

    Exhibit 14:Shareholding patternShareholding (%) Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12

    Promoters 29.4 30.0 30.0 31.8

    FIIs 20.7 17.0 20.8 15.2

    DIIs 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.3

    Public 38.3 41.4 37.6 41.8 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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    ICICI S iti Ltd |

    RATING RATIONALE

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