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Solar CSP Developers…Friends or Foes

Reese TisdaleSenior Analyst

+1 617 551 [email protected]

CSP Today 2008San Francisco, California

29 January 2008

ID# RPG 875-080129

Renewable Power Generation Advisory

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Renewable Power Generation Advisory – RPG 875-080129

OverviewAgenda

Outlook

Market Drivers

Overview

Competitive Strategies

Current Market Status

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Market DriversFactors Driving Renewable Energy Investments

Compliance• Carbon constraints (Kyoto Protocol, RGGI, etc.) • Renewable Energy Standards (ROCs)

• Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Green image • Customer acquisition and retention; shareholders

Profitability• Feed-in tariffs and tax credits providing modest to strong returns on

investments

Energy Security • Political will to reduce price volatility

Build-up uniquecompetencies

• Building renewables-focused business units with international scope

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Market DriversFactors Driving Renewable Energy Investments

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

U.S. Natural Gas WellheadPrice Dollars per ThousandCubic Feet

SEGS I

SEGS II

SEGS III

SEGS IV

SEGS V

SEGS VI

SEGS IX

NevadaSolar One

SEGS VIII

Initial Build-out

Period of Dormancy

Second Launch

Energy CrisisSEGS VII

Saguaro

PS10

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

I b e r d r o l a

F P L E N

E L

A c c i o n a E D

F

B a b c

o c k B

r o w n

S c o t t i s h P o

w e r

E n d e s a E D

P E . O N

S u e z

C h e v r o n

M i d A m

e r i c a

n D O

N G R W E

C F E

V a t t e

n f a l l

W h e

e l a b r

a t o r

C a l p i

n e E u

r u s

M W

SHP

Solar CSP

WTE

Co-firing

Landfill gasBiogas

Biomass

Geothermal

Wind

Source: Utilities, Developers, Emerging Energy Research

• 12 of the top 20 companies areEuropean-based

• European companies are nowinvesting in US assets

• Utilities and IPPS are lookingbeyond wind to bolsterportfolios

Analysis

Current Market StatusRenewable Power Generation

European utilities and IPPs are taking leadership roles in the renewables sector and increasing role in solar CSP

Top 20 Renewable Players

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Current Market StatusConcentrating Solar Power Today

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Fortress

Investment Group

FPL Energy

Acciona Solar

Sunray Energy

Abengoa Solar

Net MW Ownership

MW Ownership, as of YE2006

MW Additions, 2007

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Fortress Investment Group

FPL Energy

Abengoa Solar

Acciona Solar

Iberdrola

ACS Cobra

Sunray Energy

Solar Millennium

Net MW Ownership

MW Ownership, as of YE2007

MW Additions, 2008 (est.)

Solar CSP Industry will add 170 MW in 2008, all in Europe. No installations are expected in the US until at least 2010

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• Abengoa’s 11 MW central receiver system is the firstlarge scale commercial facility to come online in 17 years

• Acciona’s 64 MW Nevada Solar One plant is the first parabolictrough plant to come online since 1991

• No current facilities have additional storage capabilities

• Solar Millennium has announced 1,000 MW of parabolictrough planned for Inner Mongolia by 2020

• 3,000 MW of Fresnel is planned by Solar Power Group forNorth Africa with the Libyan Center for Solar Research

Current Installed CSP Technology Announced CSP Facilities by Technology

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TBD

Solar ChimneyParabolic Trough

Linear Fresnel

ISCC

Dish Engine

Central Receiver

Central Receiver11 MW

Parabolic Trough420 MW

Total:431 MW

Current Market StatusConcentrating Solar Power by Technology

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Competitive StrategiesSolar CSP Developer Positioning

Utilities & IPPs• Renewable ownership leaders

• Adding CSP projects to wind portfolios

Technology Promoters• Independent technology providers

• Leveraging specialized technology capabilities

Renewable ProjectDevelopers

• Opportunistic players playing off promoters and Utility/IPPs

• Locking up optimal sites for investment

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Competitive StrategiesSolar CSP Value Chain

ProjectOwnership

T

e c h n o l o g y P r o m

o t e r s GE Finance, EDP,

Solar Millennium, ACS

OperationEPCProjectDevelopment

ACS Cobra, SenerMAN Ferrostaal

Sacyr VallehermosoURS Corporation

TechnologyIntegrator

I P P s & U t i l i t i e s

Solel

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Competitive StrategiesTechnology Promoter Differentiation

SES

Solar Millennium

AusraSolel

Solar Power Group

BrightSource Energy

Sener

Novatec Biosol

Abengoa Solar

Technology Diversification

L o c a l

G l o b a l

Abengoa stands alone in technology

diversification with experience inparabolic trough, central receiver, anddish engine experience.Geographically focused on Spain,North Africa, and the US

Split evenly between parabolic troughplayers and linear Fresnel playersapplying global development strategybeyond one country

Focused on one country and one

technology during demonstration stagebefore launching globally

Ener-T Global

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Competitive StrategiesWind Developers Enter CSP Sector

1 4 2

2 5 0

4,840

Iberdrola

5,711

FPL Energy

6 0 0

6 5

2 1 5

2,791

Acciona

2 0 0

1,194

EDP

1 5 0

2,003

Endesa

5 6

809

Enel

Wind Capacity(MW)

Solar CSPInstalled (MW)

Solar CSPPlanned (MW)

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OutlookConclusions

• Fossil fuel volatility and climate change issues will bolster renewable market overcoming decade, fostering solar CSP buildout

• The Spanish will be slow and steady over the next decade; US market growth willtake place closer to 2015

• Parabolic trough technology will continue dominant role until emergingtechnologies prove viable. Thermal storage will prove critical over long term.

• The industry will begin to consolidate over the next five years with leading IPPs

and utilities acquiring assets

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Emerging Energy Research

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information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it.

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