Will and Skill: Aligning Educational Initiatives

with the Texas and Houston Labor Market

Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission

richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us

(512) 936-3105

Labor markets involve millions of

individual actors, all making decisions simultaneously.

Convergent Validity:

Because nobody knows everything taking place in a

regional economy

Economist

Labor Market Analysis

Themes of the day

• The Texas and most regional economies are stronger than the U.S., but Texas is subject to the same global macroeconomic forces as other parts of the U.S.

• Globalization is influencing job creation; type and number

• Demographic shifts are changing the face of the Texas labor market – where we live, what we look like

• Nobody lives in Texas: every region is a different economy

• Recent Texas job growth has been largely fueled by: Population growth, the Oil & gas cluster and Professional & Business Services

• Occupational demand is more bifurcated. Skill sets over job titles

• The current alignment between labor market demand and education outputs is less than perfect

• In the end, getting a job is all about balancing Will and Skill

A Goldilocks U.S. Economy….

Not too Hot… Not too Cold…

Hiring is Up: New Hires vs. Separations

New Hires

Separations

Changing Nature of Separations: Layoffs down, Quits up

Quits

Layoffs

Texas Labor Market: 1. Who we are? 2. Where do we live? 3. What’s the job market like? 4. Where is the job growth? 5. What are future job prospects? 6. Does education matter? 7. Does what you study matter?

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

8 Source: Texas State Data Center

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

79 counties lost

population over

the decade

Top 20 Fastest Growing Texas Counties 2010-12

County/City ABS CHG

Harris County (Houston) 145,783

Dallas County (Dallas) 80,029

Travis County (Austin) 65,365

Tarrant County (Ft. Worth) 63,809

Bexar County (San Antonio) 62,729

Collin County (Plano) 46,137

Denton County (Denton) 40,343

Fort Bend Co. (Sugarland) 36,296

Williamson Co. (Round Rock) 29,510

Hidalgo County (McAllen) 27,349

County/City ABS CHG

Montgomery Co. (Woodlands) 25,756

El Paso County (El Paso) 23,892

Hays County (San Marcos) 10,701

Brazoria County (Pearland) 10,271

Bell County (Killeen) 10,158

Midland County (Midland) 9,703

Cameron County (Brownsville) 7,901

Webb County (Laredo) 7,888

Galveston County (Galveston) 7,861

Guadalupe County (Seguin) 7,463

Texas becomes more Hispanic

Texas MSA October 2013 Urates (actual)

MSA 2013 2012 MSA 2013 2012 Midland 3.1 (3.2) Houston-Sugar Land 5.9 (6.2)

Odessa 3.6 (3.9) D/FW-Arlington CSA 5.9 (6.2)

Amarillo* 4.4 (4.3) Texas 6.0 (6.2)

Abilene 4.7 (4.9) Sherman-Denison 6.2 (6.5)

Lubbock 4.7 (4.9) Laredo 6.2 (6.3)

San Angelo 4.8 (4.8) Tyler 6.4 (6.5)

Victoria 5.0 (5.3) Killeen-Temple 6.9 (7.0)

College Station-Bryan 5.0 (5.3) Texarkana* 7.0 (6.0)

Austin-Round Rock 5.1 (5.3) United States 7.0 (7.5)

Longview 5.3 (5.7) El Paso 8.5 (8.7)

Wichita Falls 5.5 (5.8) Beaumont-Pt Arthur 9.3 (9.8)

Corpus Christi 5.7 (5.8) Brville-Harlingen 9.8 (10.1)

San Antonio 6.0 (6.0) McAllen-Edinburg 10.1 (10.1)

Waco* 6.1 (5.9)

Texas Industry Growth October 2012-13 YOY (SA)

NAICS Industry Oct 2013 Oct 2012 ABS CHG PER CHG Total Nonagricultural 11,232,700 10,965,300 267,400 2.4% Goods Producing 1,768,100 1,736,400 31,700 1.8% Service Providing 9,464,600 9,228,900 235,700 2.6% Prof. & Business Services 1,489,000 1,415,800 73,200 5.2% Trade, Transport, Utilities 2,250,100 2,183,200 66,900 3.1% Leisure and Hospitality 1,149,800 1,108,700 41,100 3.7% Educ. /Health Services 1,507,200 1,477,200 30,000 2.0% Mining and Logging 290,100 275,100 15,000 5.5% Construction 608,000 593,500 14,500 2.4% Financial Activities 672,100 662,900 9,200 1.4% Information 205,800 197,700 8,100 4.1% Other Services 389,500 385,100 4,400 1.1% Government 1,801,100 1,798,300 2,800 0.2% Manufacturing 870,000 867,800 2,200 0.3%

Texas Industry Employment Change 2011-13 Industry QTR1/2013 Abs CHG AWW

Food Services and Drinking Places 882,956 80,415 $315 Administrative and Support Services 674,852 60,230 $749 Professional and Technical Services 645,614 59,492 $1,527 Support Activities for Mining 170,622 44,558 $1,811 Ambulatory Health Care Services 633,127 34,872 $857 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 313,992 29,514 $1,464 Specialty Trade Contractors 335,818 24,179 $882 Social Assistance 190,806 20,987 $444 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 135,183 18,335 $1,064 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 158,449 17,411 $1,151 Truck Transportation 128,267 17,293 $969 Credit Intermediation & Related Activity 257,096 16,410 $1,419 Oil and Gas Extraction 100,767 16,385 $4,058 Machinery Manufacturing 105,999 14,812 $1,629 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 157,531 14,578 $902

Harris County Industry Growth 1stQTR 2011-2013 Growth Industry 2011-13 1stQTR2013 AWW

Administrative & Support Services 20,329 160,910 $905

Professional & Technical Services 18,130 176,954 $1,881

Food Services and Drinking Places 13,533 157,770 $346

Oil & Gas Extraction 8,681 52,771 $5,023 Machinery Manufacturing 8,222 47,413 $1,988

Fabricated Metal Product Manuf. 8,217 47,258 $1,187

Merchant Wholesalers, Durables 7,795 75,397 $1,494 Ambulatory Health Care Services 7,201 109,184 $942

Support Activities for Mining 5,527 36,824 $2,653

Heavy Engineering Construction 5,069 36,093 $1,381 Social Assistance (incl. Child care) 4,872 30,544 $473

Specialty Trade Contractors 4,585 71,956 $977

Building Construction 3,876 39,374 $1,626 Financial Investment Activity 3,215 14,680 $4,630

Hospitals 3,190 96,874 $1,313

Gulf Coast LWDA Key Export Industries

Industry Title 2012 Export Jobs

Oil & Gas Extraction 57,602

Architectural & Engineering Services 39,841

Support Activities for Mining 38,159

Ag., Construction & Mining Machinery 36,986

Non-residential Building Construction 24,651

Home Health Care Services 22,326

Utility System Construction 21,076

Basic Chemical Manufacturing 18,396

Machinery Supply Services 18,106

Other Hospitals (Cancer, Psychiatric) 16,622

Office Administrative Services 11,166

Petroleum Products Manufacturing 10,002

Architectural Structural Metal Manuf 7,687

Building Equipment Contractors 4,866

Staffing Pattern for Architectural & Engineering Services

Occupational Title +39,841 Staffing % Expected Growth

Civil Engineers 8.0 3,187 Architects, Except Landscape and Naval 4.3 1,694 Architectural and Civil Drafters 4.2 1,691 Mechanical Engineers 3.4 1,352 General and Operations Managers 3.3 1,308 Office Clerks, General 3.1 1,234 Surveying and Mapping Technicians 2.9 1,159 Software Developers, Systems Software 2.6 1,054 Administrative Assistants 2.4 940 Aerospace Engineers 2.3 907 Surveyors 2.3 905 Architectural and Engineering Managers 2.3 903 Civil Engineering Technicians 2.1 851 Electrical Engineers 2.1 850

Houston MSA Hiring by Size Class 2ndQTR 2012

LED QWI Quickfacts

0-19 20-49 50-249 250-499 500+

Employment 353,741 190,543 134,526 348,989 1,310,900 PCT Total Employment 15.1% 8.1% 5.8% 14.9% 56.1% Monthly Earnings

$3,869 $4,277 $5,331 $4,615 $5,645

New Hire Earnings

$2,668 $2,908 $3,892 $3,461 $3,791

New Hires 79,845 44,449 28,922 80,048 231,046 PCT New Hire 17.2% 9.6% 6.2% 17.2% 49.8% Separations 75,944 42,558 28,357 79,142 235,964

Where the Job Postings Are Now: December 2013

Metro Area Postings Metro Area Postings

Dallas-Fort Worth 228,655 Beaumont-Port Arthur 7,481

Houston-Sugar Land 179,744 College Station-Bryan 7,285

Austin-Round Rock 74,196 Odessa 7,183

San Antonio 57,395 Tyler 7,010

El Paso 15,569 Midland 6,949

Corpus Christi 15,490 Abilene 5,040

McAllen-Edinburg 11,220 Brownsville-Harlingen 5,030

Lubbock 9,801 Laredo 4,695

Killeen-Temple 9,376 Longview 4,152

Waco 8,063 San Angelo 3,409

Amarillo 7,580 Wichita Falls 3,152

Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from Dec 22, 2013 NOTE: 73% of all job postings in Big 4 metro areas

Help Wanted Job Listings for Texas Job Type Postings Preferred education

1. Registered Nurse 31,298 Associate’s degree

2. Truck Driver (tractor trailer) h 23,926 Short term OJT

3. Retail Salesperson h 19,410 Short term OJT

4. Supervisor, Retail Workers i 15,536 Related Work Exp.

5. Customer Service Rep h 15,296 Moderate term OJT

6. Supervisor, Food Prep Workers h 13,269 Related Work Exp.

7. Computer Systems Analyst h 11,896 Bachelor’s degree

8. Computer Network Administrator 11,544 Bachelor’s degree

9. Supervisor, Office Workers 11,356 Related Work Exp.

10. Computer Support Specialist h 11,086 Associate’s degree

11. Web Developer 11,037 Associate’s degree

12. Maintenance / Repair Worker h 11,005 Moderate term OJT

13. Accountant h 10,367 Bachelor’s degree

Help Wanted Job Listings for Texas (continued) Job Type Postings Preferred education

14. Software Application Developer h 10,263 Bachelor’s degree

15. Sales Rep (wholesale, manufacturing) 10,068 Related Work Exp.

16. Marketing Manager 7,837 Bachelor’s degree

17. Executive Secretary / Admin Assistant 7,755 Related Work Exp.

18. Industrial Engineer 7,538 Bachelor’s degree

19. Manager, Medical / Health Services 7,403 Bachelor’s degree

20. Management Analyst h 6,962 Bachelor’s degree

21. Bookkeeper / Audit Clerk 6,549 Moderate term OJT

22. Sales Manager 6,532 Related Work Exp.

23. Supervisor, Production Workers h 6,514 Related Work Exp.

24. Information Technology Project Manager h 6,348 Associate’s degree

25. Insurance Sales Agent 5,776 Post HS Vocational

26. Financial Branch/Department Manager h 5,714 Bachelor’s degree

27. Supervisor, Mechanics & Repairers 5,658 Related Work Exp.

Help Wanted Job Postings Houston MSA September 2013

Job Type 2013 2012 2012 wage

1. Registered Nurses 7,239 6,470 $73,862 2. Retail Salespersons 5,565 4,176 $24,762 3. Supervisors, Retail Sales Workers 4,071 4,339 $41,627 4. Accountants 3,739 3,614 $77,573 5. Truck Drivers (Heavy) 3,727 3,153 $47,488 6. Computer Systems Analysts 3,713 3,481 $96,075 7. Supervisors, Food Prep Workers 3,583 2,097 $31,721 8. Customer Service Representatives 3,438 2,781 $29,887 9. Industrial Engineers 3,437 3,868 $114,379 10. Supervisors, Office & Admin Support 2,990 2,690 $55,561 11. Non-tech Sales Reps, WH & Man 2,590 2,496 $68,676

12. Maintenance & Repair Workers 2,564 2,183 $35,597 13. Computer User Support Specialists 2,449 2,547 $56,855 14. Management Analysts 2,432 2,385 $96,240

15. Network Systems Administrators 2,345 2,186 $89,166

Help Wanted Job Postings Houston MSA September 2013

Job Type 2013 2012 2012 wages

16. Petroleum Engineers 2,334 2,159 $156,717 17. Executive Admin Assistants 2,285 2,053 $52,737 18. Mechanical Engineers 2,207 2,440 $101,427 19. Web Developers 2,146 2,096 $124,021 20. Software Developers, Applications 2,058 1,870 $95,054 21. Marketing Managers 2,042 1,969 $140,562 22. Supervisors, Production Workers 2,033 1,910 $70,090 23. IT Project Managers 1,906 1,797 $143,732 24. Sales Managers 1,886 2,055 $124,266 25. Bookkeeping/Accounting Clerks 1,834 1,750 $38,295 26. Financial Branch Managers 1,806 1,498 $137,812 27. General & Operations Managers 1,666 1,578 $124,021 28. Supervisors, Mechanics & Repairers 1,584 1,321 $63,141 29. Medical & Health Services Managers 1,513 1,586 $111,685 30. Bank Tellers 1,485 1,355 $25,174

Fastest Growing Occupations in Gulf Coast LWDA 2010-20

Occupational Title PCT CHG AAO Education

Elementary & Middle School Teachers 52.0% 2,930 Bachelor's Home Health Aides 50.9% 990 High school Personal Care Aides 49.9% 1,475 High school Medical Secretaries 45.2% 845 High school Teacher Assistants 42.7% 1,385 High school Respiratory Therapists 42.4% 160 Associate's Industrial Machinery Mechanics 41.5% 710 High school Market Research Analysts/Specialists 41.3% 320 Bachelor's Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 41.0% 215 Associate's Education Administrators, K-12 40.2% 400 Master's Petroleum Engineers 39.5% 540 Bachelor's HS Teachers, exc. Special Ed & CTE 39.3% 1,770 Bachelor's Cooks, Restaurant 39.0% 1,120 High school Registered Nurses 38.2% 2,470 BSN/AAS Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas 37.8% 155 High school

What is IT? Is this IT?

What is the IT labor market? Can it be defined as an industry?

Can it be defined by occupation? Can it be defined by college major? Is IT a ubiquitous operation or a cross- domain function? Should it be defined by skill set?

The Argument for Skills over Occupational Titles: Job Titles That Didn’t Exist Just 5 Years Ago

Job Title Job Title

1. Videogame Tester 11. Cyber Security Specialist

2. Market Researcher Data Miner 12. Product Blogger

3. Bioinformatics Specialist 13. Social Media Manager

4. Healthcare Applications Analyst 14. Cyborg Anthropologist

5. Big Data Integration Engineer 15. Usability Engineer

6. Chief Listening Officer 16. Chief Sustainability Officer

7. Cloud Computing Operations Manager 17. User Experience Designer

8. E-commerce specialist 18. Mobile App Developer

9. Search Engine Optimization Manager 19. Online Reputation Manager

10. Behavioral Analytics Specialist 20. Programmer IV

Source: O*NET & Monster.com

It’s all about

Skills!

Learn about the TWC

approach to creating

a common skill

language to define

work and associated

learning

expectations in

Texas

Returns to Education & Educational Requirements

Labor Market Reality

More education, better labor market outcomes

Career Interests of Texas students 2012 1. Sports Athlete (#4) 14. Architect (#11)

2. Doctor (#6) 15. Police Officer (#7)

3. Multi-Media Artist (new) 16. Psychologist (#15)

4. Truck Driver (new) 17. Welder (new)

5. Forensic Science Tech (#10) 18. Pediatrician (#18)

6. Veterinarian (#5) 19. Artist (#30)

7. Lawyer (#2) 20. Physical Therapist (#16)

8. Registered Nurse (#3) 21. Hairdresser/Cosmetologist (#12)

9. Actor (#9) 22. CEO (#35)

10. Musician/Singer (#14) 23. Fashion Designer (#24)

11. Graphic Designer (new) 24. Zoologist (#19)

12. Teacher (K-12) (#1) 25. Computer Programmer (#20)

13. Auto Mechanic (#13) *From 8,739 Texas students contacting LMCI Hotline in 2012 *(Number) represents position of career in 2007

Reality is Relative

2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey Poll of Americans ages 13-18

Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive

U.S. teenagers were asked:

1. What is your average expected starting salary?

2. What will be your salary once established in a career?

Reality is Relative 2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey

Poll of Americans ages 13-18

Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive

For real fun, check out: http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/

Starting your career: Average answer:

$73,000 a year

Boys answered: $79,700 a year

Girls answered: $66,200 a year

Reality is Relative 2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey

Poll of Americans ages 13-18

Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive

For real fun, check out: http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/

Established in your career: Average answer:

$150,000 a year

Boys answered: $162,300 a year

Girls answered: $126,500 a year

Welcome to Reality Check 2011! http://www.texasrealitycheck.com

Texas Reality Check for iPhone…. for free! Now at the Apple App Store

Highest Earning College Programs 2012 Detail View Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) (50+) Grads Earnings

Petroleum Engineering 387 $93,251 Chemical Engineering 483 $70,247 Mechanical Engineering 1,364 $60,597 Registered Nursing/Nursing Administration 6,952 $58,697 Mechanical Engineering Related Technologies 133 $57,914 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians 227 $57,486 Computer Programming 79 $55,719 Electrical, Electronics & Telecomm Engineering 968 $55,703 Computer Engineering 242 $55,510 Construction Engineering Technologies 373 $53,832 Computer Science 226 $52,543 Computer Systems Analysis 155 $52,411 Computer and Information Sciences, General 1,088 $51,642 Civil Engineering 728 $51,587 Sales, Merchandising & Marketing Operations 219 $50,781

Lowest Earning College Programs 2012 Detail View Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) (50+) Grads Earnings

Pastoral Counseling and Specialized Ministries 64 $18,404 Bible/Biblical Studies 55 $19,142 Drama/Theatre Arts and Stagecraft 553 $19,762 Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions 214 $20,037 Anthropology 514 $20,077 Dietetics and Clinical Nutrition Services 76 $20,443 Health/Medical Preparatory Programs 130 $20,578 Ethnic, Cultural Minority, & Gender Studies 63 $20,623 International Relations & National Security Studies 112 $20,642 Foods, Nutrition, and Related Services 522 $21,060 Film/Video and Photographic Arts 174 $21,288 Neurobiology and Neurosciences 143 $21,382 Zoology/Animal Biology 92 $21,639 Religious Education 139 $22,062 Radio, Television, and Digital Communication 1,008 $22,226

Math = Money

The more accomplished you are at applied mathematics the more money

you can make.

Highest Earning Associate’s Degree Programs 2012 Associate’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings

Fire Protection 183 $60,516 Electrical and Power Transmission Installers 54 $60,442 Mining and Petroleum Technologies/Technicians 38 $56,862 Physical Science Technologies/Technicians 474 $53,216 Quality Control & Safety Technicians 160 $51,324 Registered Nursing and Clinical Nursing 5,852 $49,708 Construction Engineering Technologies 56 $48,410 Nuclear & Industrial Radiologic Technicians 32 $48,139 Geography and Cartography 28 $47,595 Electromechanical & Instrumentation Maint. Techs 560 $46,045 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians 151 $44,757 Precision Metal Working 185 $40,548 Finance and Financial Management Services 47 $40,471 Real Estate 61 $40,241 Electrical/Electronics Maint. & Repair Technology 67 $40,097

Structural Mismatch: 2012 Graduates Grads Earnings Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 10,383 $34,739 Business Administration, Mgmt. & Operations 7,644 $45,041 Registered Nursing/Nursing Administration 6,952 $58,697 Psychology, General 5,711 $24,451 Biology, General 4,696 $22,753 Health & Physical Education/Fitness 3,891 $24,359 Criminal Justice and Corrections 3,692 $29,205 Accounting and Related Services 3,584 $37,693 Finance and Financial Management Services 2,796 $41,699 Marketing 2,665 $35,039 English Language and Literature, General 2,227 $25,390 History 2,200 $27,366 Liberal Arts, Humanities & General Studies 2,119 $33,278 Communication and Media Studies 2,095 $28,239 Political Science and Government 2,017 $27,493

Regional employers say they want…

1. Good communications skills: Can you…..

Explain what you’re doing (to co-worker or customer)?

Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)?

Ability to listen to instructions?

2. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job openings)

4. Can you work with people who are of a different age, race, gender and education level than you?

5. Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are “engaged” in their work)

6. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you determine what will probably happen next)

Will Workplace

Skills

Skills Distill

Will

Workplace Skills

Skills Strong academics

High School diploma Post secondary schooling Appropriate technical skills

Distill

College Increases Earnings Potential

Bachelor’s (AAO to 2020) $$$ HS Only (AAO to 2020) $$$ Chief Executives (620) $178,560 Rotary Drill Operator (470) $69,016

Engineering Managers (655) $154,161 Pump Operators (200) $50,150

Petroleum Engineers (1,065) $147,070 Crane Operators (230) $46,830

Airline Pilot & Flight Engineer (500) $137,425 Oil Derrick Operators (515) $45,673 Geoscientists (640) $130,200 Wellhead Pumpers (215) $44,144

Marketing Managers (520) $128,088 Service Unit Operator (1,235) $43,045

Computer Systems Managers (665) $124,834 Excavating Operators (295) $35,489 Financial Managers (1,035) $118,624 Roustabouts (1,155) $32,943

Chemical Engineers (240) $115,873 Parts Salespersons (775) $32,163

Sales Managers (1,085) $115,077 Drywall Installers (490) $31,604

Industrial Production Mgrs. (525) $112,001 Construction Painter (1,200) $31,596

Human Resources Managers (225) $111,840 Cement Masons (500) $28,899

Aerospace Engineers (355) $102,659 Refuse Collectors (320) $28,331

Software Developer, System (1,310) $98,631 Industrial Truck Oprs. (1,635) $27,972

Software Developer, Apps (1,210) $91,704 Counter/Rental Clerk (1,280) $26,672

Will

Workplace Basic Skills

Communication skills Getting along with others

Critical thinking

Skills

Distill

“There’s not one specific thing or skill

people have to have to work for us.

But I can tell you why we fire people:

soft skills. We hire for hard skills. We

fire for soft skills. The ability to

interact and communicate with others

or behave ethically and take

responsibility for things tends to be

where people tend to break down.”

Rick Stephens, senior vice president of HR,

The Boeing Corporation

Will

Workplace Skills

Skills Distill

Stackable Credentials Informal education On the Job Learning

The Climbing Wall

The Climbing Wall concept of Career

Development:

Everyone is trying to get to the top, but

each finds themselves at a different place,

moving at a different pace and

with a unique support system

Will Willing to take a job: At lower level, lesser wage

In a different locale

Show flexibility & initiative

Workplace Skills

Skills Distill

Will Willing to take a job: At lower level, lesser wage

In a different locale

Show flexibility & initiative

Workplace Skills Workplace Basics!

Communication skills Getting along with others

Critical thinking

Skills Strong academics

High School diploma Post secondary schooling Appropriate technical skills

Distill Stackable Credentials

Informal education On the Job Learning

Climbing Wall

There is much more story to tell, but this version is over

Thank you! richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us