ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - Hellenic Shipping News ... · ALIBRA Weekly Market Report -$200 15...
8
JAPANESE SHIPBUILDING SLICED ALIBRA Weekly Market Report May 17th, 2016 Some key figures: Some key figures: 945 Estimated orderbook of conventional ves- sels being built in Japan (500+ gt) ALIBRA Weekly Market Report 15 July 2016 -96.5% Decline in gt ordered at JSEA yards during June, compared with June 2015 New ship orders placed at Japanese yards fell by 80% during H1 2016 compared to H1 2015, according to data from the Japan Ship Exporters' Association (JSEA). This is the worst decline since the autumn of 2008 in terms of gross tonnage. Yoshikazu Nakaya, a shipping analyst with Mizuho Bank, told Nikkei the current slump is "worse than the one following the global financial crisis” and thinks Japan’s shipbuilding industry “won't recover until 2021”. The current orderbook of vessels for export stands at 667 ships, of which 196 (30%) will be delivered this year, JSEA says. Some 227 ships (34%) will be delivered in 2017 and 196 (23%) will arrive in 2018. JSEA’s figures, however, pertain only to JSEA member yards building vessels for international clientele. The figures are for only bulk carriers, tankers (including LPG and LNG carriers), general cargo vessels (including containerships) and combination carriers of over 500 gt. According to Alibra research, another 278 of these vessels are on order for Japanese carriers. Of this number, we estimate around 82% are due for delivery by the end of 2018. In the meantime, major yards are planning to spend billions of yen on upgrading their facilities and expanding production capacity. Among them, Japan Marine United and Tsuneishi Shipbuilding are planning to shift production away from bulk carriers in favour of other vessel types such as ultra- large containerships for JMU and mid-size tankers for Tsuneishi. Japanese shipbuilders saw their combined share of the global shipbuilding market rise to 29% in 2015 from 13% in 2013, thanks to a weak yen and a spike in demand for energy-efficient ‘eco’ ves- sels. The country’s market share is currently around 19%. Japanese yards are reportedly marketing 2018 slots aggressively, and may have to cut prices to keep busy. Will price cuts be enough to tempt new orders from shipowners, who have already had their fingers burned by over-ordering?
Transcript of ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - Hellenic Shipping News ... · ALIBRA Weekly Market Report -$200 15...
JAPANESE
SHIPBUILDING SLICED
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report
May 17th, 2016
Some key figures:
Some key figures:
945 Estimated orderbook of conventional ves-
sels being built in Japan (500+ gt)
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report
15 July 2016
-96.5% Decline in gt ordered at JSEA yards during June,
compared with June 2015
New ship orders placed at Japanese yards fell by 80%
during H1 2016 compared to H1 2015, according to
data from the Japan Ship Exporters' Association
(JSEA). This is the worst decline since the autumn of
2008 in terms of gross tonnage.
Yoshikazu Nakaya, a shipping analyst with Mizuho
Bank, told Nikkei the current slump is "worse than the
one following the global financial crisis” and thinks
Japan’s shipbuilding industry “won't recover until
2021”.
The current orderbook of vessels for export stands at
667 ships, of which 196 (30%) will be delivered this
year, JSEA says. Some 227 ships (34%) will be delivered
in 2017 and 196 (23%) will arrive in 2018.
JSEA’s figures, however, pertain only to JSEA member
yards building vessels for international clientele. The figures are for only bulk carriers, tankers
(including LPG and LNG carriers), general cargo vessels (including containerships) and combination
carriers of over 500 gt.
According to Alibra research, another 278 of these vessels are on order for Japanese carriers. Of this
number, we estimate around 82% are due for delivery by the end of 2018.
In the meantime, major yards are planning to spend billions of yen on upgrading their facilities and
expanding production capacity. Among them, Japan Marine United and Tsuneishi Shipbuilding are
planning to shift production away from bulk carriers in favour of other vessel types such as ultra-
large containerships for JMU and mid-size tankers for Tsuneishi.
Japanese shipbuilders saw their combined share of the global shipbuilding market rise to 29% in
2015 from 13% in 2013, thanks to a weak yen and a spike in demand for energy-efficient ‘eco’ ves-
sels. The country’s market share is currently around 19%.
Japanese yards are reportedly marketing 2018 slots aggressively, and may have to cut prices to
keep busy. Will price cuts be enough to tempt new orders from shipowners, who have already had
their fingers burned by over-ordering?
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - 15 July 2016
Private and Confidential - ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. 2016 2
COMMENT
WTI and Brent prices fell by 1.05% and
1.10% respectively, attributed to increased
Chinese output and sub-$40 speculation.
Iron Ore rallied to $58 following Chinese
government crackdowns on speculative
trading from domestic steel mills.
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
HOUSTON ROTTERDAM SINGAPORE FUJAIRAH
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$25
$35
$45
$55
$65
$75
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
CRUDE (WTI) CRUDE (BRENT) IRON ORE (PLATTS)
COAL (RB INDEX) WHEAT (CBT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
GBP / USD EUR / USD USD / JPY
Bunker prices
COMMENT
Following a new British government and
interest stability from the Bank of England,
the pound rallied against the dollar to
£1.34. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen is ex-
pected to experience its worst week since
1999 amid expectations of fiscal and mon-
etary easing by the re-elected Shinzo Abe.
COMMENT
Overall, bunkering prices for MGO are
down, with the exception of Fujairah,
which saw a 1.00% increase in IFO380
prices as well. Rotterdam IFO380 prices
experienced the largest change in
rates, which decreased by 4.50%.
PORT 380 CST MGO
HOUSTON 227.0 445.0
ROTTERDAM 231.5 405.5
SINGAPORE 246.0 422.5
FUJAIRAH 254.5 521.5
COMMODITY PRICE LAST WEEK (+/-)
CRUDE (WTI) 45.25 -0.3
CRUDE (BRENT) 47.40 -0.1
IRON ORE (PLATTS) 58.00 2.8
COAL (RB INDEX) 63.30 2.5
WHEAT (CBT) 422.00 7
CURRENCY PAIR PRICE
GBP / USD 1.34038
EUR / USD 1.11456
USD / JPY 105.908
USD / KRW 1132.14
Commodity prices
Currency prices
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - 15 July 2016
Private and Confidential - ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. 2016 3
Dry bulk
SIZE
PERIOD
HANDY (32k dwt) 6,500 5,200 5,900 5,400 5,400 5,200
SUPRA (56k dwt) 6,900 6,000 6,300 6,000 5,650 5,450
ULTRA (62k dwt) 7,100 6,100 6,450 6,200 5,800 5,650
PANA/KMAX (76k-82k dwt) 8,200 6,600 7,100 5,850 6,400 6,200
CAPE (170k dwt) 9,200 9,200 8,500 8,500 8,800 8,800
6 MOS 1 YR 2 YR
* Arrows only indicate the movement compared to the past week hence not necessarily the market trends.
ATL PAC ATL PAC ATL PAC
SIZE THIS WEEK LAST WEEK CHANGE (+/-)HANDYSIZE 361 352 9
SUPRAMAX 686 644 42
PANAMAX 842 779 63
CAPESIZE 1020 1008 12
BDI 738 699 39
BALTIC DRY INDEX
COMMENT
For the third week running the dry bulk sector has seen an increase in rates, and a rise from 580
to 738 on the BDI over the same period.
Supras were the only market which saw some mixed sentiment in the past week, as South
American trade fell due to high tonnage availability, but most other trades rose with the big-
gest gain coming from the East Med to SPORE-JPN range trip which jumped by almost 25%.
Meanwhile, little activity in the Capesize market meant that there was no change in the
Capesize rates, which stayed at about 9,200, 8,500 & 8,800 $/pdpr in the 6 month, 1 and 2 year
period respectively.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
Baltic Dry Index
HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE BDI
DRY TIME CHARTER ESTIMATES ($/pdpr)
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - 15 July 2016
Private and Confidential - ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. 2016 4
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
6 Months Atlantic TC Rates ($/day)
HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
6 Months Paci fic TC Rates ($/day)
HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
2 Year Atlantic TC Rates ($/day)
HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
2 Year Paci fic TC Rates ($/day)
HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
1 Year Paci fic TC Rates ($/day)
HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
1 Year Atlantic TC Rates ($/day)
HANDYSIZE SUPRAMAX PANAMAX CAPESIZE
VESSEL SIZE (DWT) BUILT PERIOD DELIVERY RATE ($/DAY) CHRTR
ALAM PENTING 87 2005 4-7 MOS HITACHINAKA 6,750 COBELFRET
ULTRA PANACHE 78 2011 4-8 MOS HONG KONG 6,750 CNR
BALTIA 76 2005 4-7 MOS CJK 6,500 NORDEN
JOSCO HUIZHOU 62 2014 12 MOS CHENNAI 6,250 SINOCHART
STELLA MARIS 52 2007 6 MOS PHILIPPINES 5,800 CNR
PERIOD FIXTURES
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - 15 July 2016
Private and Confidential - ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. 2016 5
THIS WEEK LAST WEEK CHANGE (+/-)
DIRTY 620 669 -49
CLEAN 435 437 -2
BALTIC TANKER INDEX
CPP/DPP & Crude
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
07/15 08/15 09/15 10/15 11/15 12/15 01/16 02/16 03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16
DIRTY CLEAN
SIZE
HANDY 14,250 14,750 15,500 14,500
MR IMO3 15,000 15,500 15,850 15,500
LR1 17,500 18,500 19,000 19,000
LR2 (115 dwt cpp & dpp) 23,000 22,750 22,000 24,000
AFRA (115dwt) 22,000 21,500 21,500 22,500
SUEZ 26,250 26,500 27,000 26,500
VLCC 35,000 37,500 36,000 35,500
* Arrows only indicate the movement compared to the past week hence not necessarily the market trends.
1 YR 2 YR 3 YR 5 YR
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000
1
2
3
5
PER
IOD
(Y
RS)
Term Structures
VLCC SUEZ AFRA LR2 LR1 MR HANDY
TANKER TIME CHARTER ESTIMATES ($/pdpr) NON—ECO TONNAGE
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - 15 July 2016
Private and Confidential - ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. 2016 6
COMMENT
The wet market seems to be disappointingly stable this week as July stems pretty much done.
Apart from a few examples of cargoes which had to pay more than expected due to replace-
ment or prompt requirement, the market activity is expected to be stagnant.
Suezmaxes are having a hard time, with supply out passing demand by far.
Same tonnage fixed for a period of 1 year can achieve slightly higher than $26k/pdpr.
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
1 Year TC Rates ($/day)
HANDY MR LR1 LR2 AFRA SUEZ VLCC
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
2 Year TC Rates ($/day)
HANDY MR LR1 LR2 AFRA SUEZ VLCC
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
3 Year TC Rates ($/day)
HANDY MR LR1 LR2 AFRA SUEZ VLCC
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
07/15 09/15 11/15 01/16 03/16 05/16 07/16
5 Year TC Rates ($/day)
HANDY MR LR1 LR2 AFRA SUEZ VLCC
VESSEL SIZE (DWT) BUILT PERIOD RATE ($/DAY) CHRTR
NEW HARMONY 320 2014 1 YR RNR HOB
OTTOMAN INTEGRITY 150 2011 1+1 MOS RNR ST SHIPPING
SPARTO 114 2004 6 MOS 20,800 SUNCOR
STAR KESTREL 51 2008 5 MOS 14,500 NAVIG8
PERIOD FIXTURES
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - 15 July 2016
Private and Confidential - ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. 2016 7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
CAPE PANA SUPRA HANDY
$ M
ILLI
ON
Dry S&P Estimates
0 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs
Sale and Purchase
0
20
40
60
80
100
VLCC SUEZ AFRA LR1 MR
$ M
ILLI
ON
Tanker S&P Estimates
0 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs
2013 2014 2015 2016
DRY 449 400 295 223
WET 476 420 310 241
DEMOLITION PRICES ($/ldt)
VESSEL DWT BUILT PRICE ($M) BUYER
SEA TRIUMPH 150 2002 30.7 RUSSIAN
TEESTA SPIRIT 47 2004 14.3 PVT
SIGNAL MAYA 47 2005 15.5 BENETECH
MTM WESTPORT 21 2000 13,00 PVT
HARBOUR LEGEND 10 2004 5,50 PVT
SARA 7 1990 2.5 PENINSULA PETROLEUM
EKIN-S 6 2010 10,00 SEATANK
WET S&P
VESSEL DWT BUILT PRICE ($M) BUYER
SEA PULL 178 2006 13,80 SINGAPOREAN
OCEAN LORD 82 2014 18,00 ANOSIS
AMS PEGASUS I 82 2012 13,00 TRANSMED
NORDWESER 75 2001 4,30 RUSSIAN
MEDI ZHOUSHAN 64 2016 16,50 DANISH
ALAM MURNI 54 2003 4,90 BANGLADESHI
WINGSAIL 48 1999 2.4 INDONESIAN
OCEAN CRYSTAL 37 2012 13,00 JAPANESE
CS SALINA 32 2004 4,80 GREEK
SH GRACE 30 2006 5,70 FAR EASTERN
SHIN CHUETSU 25 1998 1,90 TAIWANESE
ARROW 9 1996 1,60 EGYPTIAN
DRY S&P
ALIBRA Weekly Market Report - 15 July 2016
Private and Confidential - ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. 2016 8
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
$8,000
6 MOS 12 MOS 18 MOS 24 MOS
DRY FFA
HANDY SUPRA PANA CAPE
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
1
MOS
2
MOS
3
MOS
12
MOS
WET FFA
TD3 TD7 TC2 TC6
FFAs
ALIBRA SHIPPING LIMITED
1st Floor, 35 Thurloe Street, South Kensington, SW7 2LQ
LONDON
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7581 7766 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Fax: + 44 (0) 20 7581 7760 [email protected]
[email protected] [email protected]
HANDY SUPRA PANA CAPE
6 MOS 5,400 6,950 6,450 7,800
12 MOS 5,200 6,400 6,100 6,850
24 MOS 5,350 6,600 6,300 7,600
FFA DRY
TD3 TD7 TC2 TC6
1 MOS 27,300 20,800 7,500 7,300
2 MOS 26,850 20,750 8,500 7,850
3 MOS 26,650 20,650 7,950 8,700
12 MOS 27,300 25,800 8,000 11,250
WET FFA
DISCLAIMER
All the information disclosed in this report is given in good faith but without guarantee, based on the current market situation at the time of writing.
While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this report, ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. does not accept any liability whatsoever for any
errors, omissions or opinions contained within this report.
None of the information contained in this report constitutes or forms an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity.
This report is destined to the email recipient account only, and must not be passed on to any third parties whatsoever without the written consent
of ALIBRA Shipping Ltd. The information in this report may not be reproduced in any format without prior written approval from ALIBRA Shipping
Ltd.
