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Transcript of Alfonso Guzman, November 22 2013 Institutional Framework and Business Models Approach and...
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Alfonso Guzman, November 22 2013
Institutional Framework and Business ModelsApproach and Methodology
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE
2
Context
Lessons learned from international experience
Approach and work plan
Preliminary understanding of institutional situation
Points for discussion
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Myanmar has a major electrification challenge…
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The electrification rate 29%...
43 million out of 60 million people have no access
...Most of these 43 million
people live in rural areas
…and nearly 15 million are less than 14 years old
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..and the challenge is significant …
4Source: MOEP, ESE, YESB data and Castalia estimationsAssumes 6.5 people in a household
ESE
YESB
Required
189,000
New
hou
seho
ld c
onne
ction
s pe
r yea
r
Need to connect close to 4x as many households per year to reach universal access by 2030
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1. Responsibilities for service delivery need to be separated from policy setting, planning and regulation
2. Countries with an entity assigned and funded to expand access to electricity have achieved good results
3. Commercial viability of the utility or service delivery agents is key to sustainability
4. Significant increases in access to electricity requires support of public funds
5. Private sector can play a useful role by bringing innovation and capital—but will need incentives to focus in less profitable areas
..but lessons on institutional frameworks from other countries could help Myanmar
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Some of Myanmar’s neighbors have succeeded
6
% H
ouse
hold
s el
ectr
ified
Constant GDP $ 1000s per capita Source: World Bank, One Goal two Paths
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..mainly because they have clear institutional arrangements,
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Philippines Thailand Laos Indonesia Cambodia Myanmar
Entity assigned to electrification?
Yes, NEA Yes, PEA and MEA Yes, EdL Yes, PLN No ?
Clear funding allocation Yes Yes Yes Yes No ?
Electrification rate 83% 83% 84% 70% 31% 29%
Source: World Bank & Castalia
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…and have involved private sector where it is feasible
PUBLIC PRIVATE USER
Program design (lead)
Program design (participate)
Program design (participate)
Program management (promotion, accreditation)
Marketing / User Identification
Partial capital subsidy Price ceilingTA to solar companies
Equipment Procurement / Installation
Equipment Cost (minus subsidy):•Initial down-payment
Loan to MFIs Microfinancing •Micro-loan monthly repayment
O&M O&M Cost (when needed; not a monthly fee)
User owns equipment
Honduras solar program
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Identify preliminary business models
Approach: Phase I and Phase II
9
Informal consultation
with GoM (proposed)
Map out institutional
arrangementsIdentify
institutional gaps and overlaps
Identify preliminary institutional
options Preliminary
findings
Adjust options
Interim Road Map
Workshop III
Preliminary Funding
assessment
Phase I
Phase II
January 2014
March 2014
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Approach: Phase III and Phase IV
10
Workshop IVUpdate business
models and identify funding financing
needs
Initial results from
Columbia University
Review and update interim
Institutional options
Draft Final Road Map
and Prospectus
Final Road Map &
Prospectus
Phase III
Phase IV
Develop detailed financial model
Updated results from Columbia University
Updated feedback from Workshop
Revise and detail options
June-July 2014
August 2014
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Preliminary understanding of institutional setup…
Strategic Guidance NEMC & REPWC
Segment Policy Funding Planning Services
On grid
GenerationMOEP
MEPEHGE
JVs/ IPPs
Transmission MEPE
Distribution MOEP
MOEP (ESE/YESB) (> 33kv lines)? ESE?YESB?
Private?Regional / Division Government /
MOLFRD (<33kv lines)?
Off
grid
Mini-grid MOEP? Regional / Division Government?MOLFRD?
ESE?Private?
Individual Household Systems
MOEP?
MOLFRD?MOI?
MOLFRD?MOI? Private?
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Which entity or entities will manage the implementation of the National Electrification Plan?
What are the roles and responsibilities for different agencies for: Adopting electrification plans? Setting the electrification policy and regulations? Monitoring and updating electrification plans? Coordinating and harmonizing on grid and off grid programs?
What would be suitable business models for engaging the private sector?
Points for discussion
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