AGING INNORTH CAROLINA

Allison BrownSeptember 10, 2015

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION

AGE

GRO

UP

Males Females

NORTH CAROLINA 1900

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION

AGE

GRO

UP

Males Females

2010NORTH CAROLINA

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION

AGE

GRO

UP

Males Females

2020NORTH CAROLINA

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION

AGE

GRO

UP

Males Females

2030N.C. IS AGING!

Baby Boomers

In 2015: 51-69 years old Have distinct social and demographic attributes Obtained more education Have more women in labor force More likely to occupy professional positions More racially and ethnically diverse Higher rates of divorce and separation Lower rates of marriage Fewer children Technology and social media users

- William H. Frey

NC 1990 – 2030: 177% Growth

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

Age 0-19 Age 20-59 Age 60+

6.6 M 8.0 M 9.6 M 10.7 M 11.7 M

Ranked 10th in Total Population

Rank StatePopulation

(millions)

1 California 382 Texas 263 New York 19.64 Florida 195 Illinois 12.96 Pennsylvania 12.87 Ohio 11.58 Georgia 9.99 Michigan 9.8

10 North Carolina 9.75

NC Age 60+ Has Greatest Growth

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Age 0-19 Age 20-59 Age 60+

16%

25%

269%

28% 25%

157%

56%50%

159%

Ranked 9th in Age 65+ Population

Rank StatePopulation

(millions)

1 California 4.42 Florida 3.43 Texas 2.74 New York 2.65 Pennsylvania 2.06 Ohio 1.67 Illinois 1.68 Michigan 1.4

9 North Carolina 1.310 New Jersey 1.2

NC Age 85+ Has Greatest Growth Rate

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

Age 60-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+

69K

260K378%

Ranked 10th in Age 85+ Population

Rank StatePopulation

(000,000s)

1 California 6012 Florida 4343 New York 3914 Pennsylvania 3065 Texas 3056 Illinois 2357 Ohio 2308 Michigan 1929 New Jersey 180

10 North Carolina 147

10 Largest Counties

Rank County Population

1 Mecklenburg 962,5932 Wake 945,1433 Guilford 501,0584 Forsyth 357,4835 Cumberland 331,2796 Durham 280,9217 Buncombe 245,2288 New Hanover 209,8469 Gaston 208,70410 Union 207,896

High Growth Counties

1990—2010

Rank County %

Change

1 UNION 140%2 WAKE 113%3 BRUNSWICK 112%4 JOHNSTON 109%5 HOKE 108%

2010—2030

Rank County %

Change1 DURHAM 52%2 HOKE 52%3 HARNETT 49%4 MECKLENBURG 47%5 WAKE 46%

Low Growth Counties

1990—2010

Rank County %

Change

1 WASHINGTON -6%2 MARTIN -2%3 HALIFAX -2%4 EDGECOMBE 0%5 LENOIR 4%

2010—2030

Rank County % Change

1 NORTHAMPTON -21%2 ALLEGHANY -17%3 TYRRELL -14%4 MARTIN -13%5 GATES -12%

Age 65+ High Growth Counties

1990—2010

Rank County %

Change

1 BRUNSWICK 215%2 UNION 144%3 WAKE 135%4 CHATHAM 112%5 ONSLOW 111%

2010—2030

Rank County %

Change

1 WAKE 176%2 HOKE 159%3 MECKLENBURG 145%4 ORANGE 142%5 CHATHAM 132%

Age 65+ Low Growth Counties

1990—2010

Rank County %

Change

1 HYDE -2%2 ANSON 7%3 RICHMOND 7%4 TYRRELL 8%5 HALIFAX 13%

2010—2030

Rank County % Change

1 NORTHAMPTON -1%2 ALLEGHANY 17%3 POLK 19%4 MITCHELL 20%5 CRAVEN 22%

Centenarians

2010Rank County #

1 MECKLENBURG 1332 WAKE 943 GUILFORD 834 FORSYTH 775 BUNCOMBE 74

STATE 1,512

2030 Rank County #

1 WAKE 5772 MECKLENBURG 5343 GUILFORD 2884 BUNCOMBE 1895 FORSYTH 186

STATE 4,853

New

Alexander

AlleghanyAshe

Avery

BuncombeBurke

Cabarrus

Caldwell

Catawba

CherokeeCleveland

Davie

GastonGraham

Haywood

Henderson

Iredell

Jackson

McDowell

Macon

Madison

Mecklenburg

Mitchell

Polk

Rowan

Rutherford

Surry

Swain

Union

Watauga WilkesYadkin

Yancey

ClayTransylvania

Lincoln

Granville

NashAlamance

Anson

Bladen

Caswell

Chatham

Columbus

Cumberland

Davidson

Durham

Forsyth FranklinGuilford

Harnett

Hoke

JohnstonLee

Montgomery Moore

Orange

Person

Randolph

Richmond

Robeson

Rockingham

Sampson

Scotland

Stanly

StokesVance

Wake

Warren

Beaufort

Bertie

Carteret

Chowan

Craven

Dare

Duplin

Edgecombe

Gates

Greene

Halifax Hertford

Hyde

Jones

Lenoir

Martin

Hanover

Northampton

Onslow

Pamlico

Pasquotank

Pender

Perquimans

Pitt

Tyrrell

Brunswick

Washington

Wayne

Wilson

CamdenCurrituck

Greater than 150%100 to 150% increase50 to 99% increase

Source: Based on US Census 2010 and 2030 projections from Office of State Budget and Management

Range: 3% -170%

3 to 49% increase

Projected growth for the State is 74%

Counties with more age 60+ than age 0-17 (43)

Counties with more age 0-17 than age 60+ (57)Source: US Census 2010

New

Alexander

AlleghanyAshe

Avery

BuncombeBurke

Cabarrus

Caldwell

Catawba

CherokeeCleveland

Davie

GastonGraham

Haywood

Henderson

Iredell

Jackson

McDowell

Macon

Madison

Mecklenburg

Mitchell

Polk

Rowan

Rutherford

Surry

Swain

Union

Watauga WilkesYadkin

Yancey

ClayTransylvania

Lincoln

Granville

NashAlamance

Anson

Bladen

Caswell

Chatham

Columbus

Cumberland

Davidson

Durham

Forsyth FranklinGuilford

Harnett

Hoke

JohnstonLee

Montgomery Moore

Orange

Person

Randolph

Richmond

Robeson

Rockingham

Sampson

Scotland

Stanly

StokesVance

Wake

Warren

Beaufort

Bertie

Carteret

Chowan

Craven

Dare

Duplin

Edgecombe

Gates

Greene

Halifax Hertford

Hyde

Jones

Lenoir

Martin

Hanover

Northampton

Onslow

Pamlico

Pasquotank

Pender

Perquimans

Pitt

Tyrrell

Brunswick

Washington

Wayne

Wilson

CamdenCurrituck

Counties with more 60+ than 0-17 (86)

Counties with more 0-17 than 60+ (14)

New

Alexander

AlleghanyAshe

Avery

BuncombeBurke

Cabarrus

Caldwell

Catawba

CherokeeCleveland

Davie

GastonGraham

Haywood

Henderson

Iredell

Jackson

McDowell

Macon

Madison

Mecklenburg

Mitchell

Polk

Rowan

Rutherford

Surry

Swain

Union

Watauga WilkesYadkin

Yancey

ClayTransylvania

Lincoln

Granville

NashAlamance

Anson

Bladen

Caswell

Chatham

Columbus

Cumberland

Davidson

Durham

Forsyth FranklinGuilford

Harnett

Hoke

JohnstonLee

Montgomery Moore

Orange

Person

Randolph

Richmond

Robeson

Rockingham

Sampson

Scotland

Stanly

StokesVance

Wake

Warren

Beaufort

Bertie

Carteret

Chowan

Craven

Dare

Duplin

Edgecombe

Gates

Greene

Halifax Hertford

Hyde

Jones

Lenoir

Martin

Hanover

Northampton

Onslow

Pamlico

Pasquotank

Pender

Perquimans

Pitt

Tyrrell

Brunswick

Washington

Wayne

Wilson

CamdenCurrituck

Source: US Census 2010

“Younger” and “Older” Counties

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2010 2025

YoungerOlder

Race & Ethnicity Age 60+

80.5%

16.4%

0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% White

African American

American Indian

Asian

Hispanic / Latino

Other ethnicity

2010 Hispanic / Latino

Total population – 800,120 80% of the total population is 0-40 years 61% is Mexican Age 60 and over – 27,339 (3.4%) 77% of people 65 and over live in family

households 241 people 65 and over in group quarters

• 98,634 grandparents age 30+

• Responsible for 100,577 grandchildren under age 18

• 23% with income below poverty

• 36% in labor force• NC ranks 7th nationally in

grandparents responsible for grandchildren under 18

ACS

Age 30-64

68%

Age 65+32%

Source: US Census 2010

Women Outnumber Men

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

65+ 85+

MalesFemales

Source: ACS 2006-2010

Marital Status Age 65+

30%

35%

19%

4% 12%Married

Widowed

Divorced

Separated

NeverMarried

Source: ACS 2006-2010

47%

67%

90%

25%30%

50%

Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+

Unmarried Women Unmarried Men

2010 Marital Status and Gender

Source: ACS 2006-2010

Age 65+ Education Levels

28%

32%

17%

4% 11%

8%< High School

High School / GED /EquivalentSome College

Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate orProfessional Degree

Availability of Caregivers

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

45-64 Primary Caregiving Years Age 75-84 Age 85+

1 : 191 : 17

1 : 171 : 14

1 : 11

Availability of Nursing Home Beds

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

45-64 Primary Caregiving Years Age 75-84 Age 85+

1 : 71 : 10

1 : 131 : 16

1 : 24

Costs of Services for Seniors

2%

82%

7% 9%

DHHS Expenditures 2015DOT 0.2%

DAAS 2.3%

DMA 81.6%

Mental Health 6.9%

Services for the Blind0.04%DSS 8.7%

Voc Rehab 0.2%

2010 Poverty Status

9%13%

21%

30%

Age 65-74 Age 75+

Below Poverty Level 100-199% of Poverty Level

2015 PL = $11,670

2010 EmploymentPersons age 65 and over in civilian labor

force (as % of age group) 14.3%

Most people 65 and over retire (social security, pensions, savings)

Some work out of economic necessity

Others for social contact, intellectual challenges or sense of value

The difference between labor force participation in men and women has narrowed over time

2010 Life Expectancy

People are living longer than ever before.

Women live longer than men.

Increasing longevity -rising medical costs & increasing demands for health services

Life expectancy varies between gender and race

Age Groups NC60-64 22.765-69 18.870-74 15.375-79 12.080-84 9.285+ 6.8

Living Arrangements Age 65+

65%9%

22%

4%FamilyHouseholdLiving Alone -MenLiving Alone -WomenGroup Quarters

Leading Causes of Death 2010

Rank Cause

1 Heart disease

2 Cancer

3 Chronic lower respiratory diseases

4 Cerebrovascular diseases

5 Alzheimer’s disease

Leading Cause of Injury Death

FALLS

Additional Characteristics Age 65+

23% are veterans 270,032 82% own their homes 29% live aloneMedian household income is

$35,237

Source: US Census Bureau, ACS 2007-2011

16.3% 22.1%

61.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

One disability Two or moredisabilities

No disability

Source: ACS 2010, 1 year estimate

Age 65+ Disabilities

2010 Disability Characteristics

Population 65 and over with a disability 38.4%With an ambulatory difficulty 25.6%With an independent living difficulty 16.7%With a hearing difficulty 15.8%With a cognitive difficulty 10.4%With a self-care difficulty 9.2%With a vision difficulty 7.9%

Source: ACS 2010, 1 year estimate

Source: State Center for Health Statistics, 2010

10%

25%

33%

21%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Excellent Very Good Good Fair Poor

Source: http://www.alz.org/alzheimers_disease_facts_and_figures.asp

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%Breast Cancer -2%Prostate Cancer-8%Heart Disease -16%Stroke -23%

HIV -42%

Alzheimer's+68%

Hunger

N.C. Food Insecurity Rating of 16.9% of age 60+ Ranked 12th nationally for Senior Hunger (down

from 9th in 2010) Seniors are more likely to be food insecure if they Live in a southern stateAre youngerLive with a grandchildAre African AmericanAre Hispanic

Elder Care Workforce

Research studies agree:Drastic workforce shortages will occur in the jobs most critical for elder care over next 20-30 years:• Personal Care Aides• Home Care Aides• Nurses• Physicians

High Growth Projected in Healthcare Occupations

Projected 2012-2022• Healthcare Support

Occupations: 28.1%• Healthcare Practitioners &

Technical: 21.5%• Personal Care & Service:

20.9%

Implications for Seniors

• Living Arrangements:“Communal Art Colonies”

• Manufacturing:Senior-specific products

• Technology:Senior-friendly devices

• Primary Care:Health centers and clinics administered by nurses

• Assisted living:Younger seniors caring for older seniors

• Lifestyle:Preventive measures

Aging in Place ● Aging With Choice

In-Home Aide Services Nutrition Transportation Caregiver Respite Socialization Healthy Living End-of-Life Planning

Importance of Aging Demographics

Targeting the need for senior adult servicesWhere?Who?

Identifying gaps in services Anticipating future needs for services Providing “proof” of the needs – grant

writing

Aging Resources

Allison Brown abrown@ptrc.org

NC DHHS DAAShttp://ncdhhs.gov/aging/

AARP: www.aarp.org“Policy and Research”