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Transcript of Afternoon Presentation HERE
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Robert Hogan, PhDHogan Assessment Systems
THE
PSYCHOLOGY
OF GOOD
JUDGMENT
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• The big problems in life concern making friends and having a career—
getting along and getting ahead.
• Our assessments concern interpersonal style and individual
differences in the ability to get along and get ahead.
• Some highly successful business people are very unpleasant.
• How are unpleasant people able to be successful leaders?
PERSONALITY ASSESSMENT
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THE APPLE ENIGMA
• What do the following people have in common:
Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk,
Henry Ford, John D. Rockefeller, etc. ?
• How can such unpleasant men lead
successful companies?
• That is the Apple Enigma.
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• People who are responsible for other people’s performance
are leaders.
• This includes teachers, parents, coaches, committee chairs,
and even business managers.
• The principles of leadership are constant (next slide).
• The tasks of management depend on a person’s status in an
organization.
LEADERS AND MANAGERS
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Act with integrity (Nelson Mandela, Dalai Lama, Bill Clinton).
Know what you’re talking about (all great football coaches).
Make good decisions(about people and projects—Marissa Meyer).
Have a compelling vision for the
future.
THE
PRINCIPLES
OF
LEADERSHIP4
3
2
1
Note that social skill is not on the list.
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• What managers do depends on their status in the organizational
hierarchy.
• First line managers create engagement and implement decisions
from the bosses.
• Middle managers mediate between demands from the bosses and
pushback from the staff.
• Top managers set strategy — about projects and people.
WHAT MANAGERS DO: I
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• First line managers need social skill to build engagement.
• Middle managers need social skill to mediate between the top and
the bottom.
• Top managers don’t need social skill to make decisions.
• Decision making requires judgment.
• Good judgment explains the Apple Enigma.
WHAT MANAGERS DO: II
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REVISITING STEVE JOBS
• Steve Jobs was petty and mean, which affected his
reputation for integrity.
• But Jobs was competent, had good judgment, and an
appealing vision. The same is true for Bezos, Musk. Etc.
• They are/were better leaders than it might seem.
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• The success of every career or business organization
reflects the decisions that have been made.
• (At least) half of the decisions in business are wrong.
• Good judgment mostly concerns fixing (or not repeating)
bad decisions—learning from experience.
DECISIONS DRIVE EVERYTHING
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• Economists assume people are deliberate, logical, and
unbiased decision makers.
• Real decision making is rapid, biased, and unconscious.
• We rationalize our decisions after the fact.
• Decision making is related to personality.
HUMAN DECISION MAKING
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Good judgment comes from
experience, and a lot of that
comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers
“
”• We are rarely self-conscious about our decision making.
• All of our decision making is biased.
• The biases are systematic and predictable.
• We can make the biases explicit.
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We analyze decision making in terms of three components:
Information processing style (learning preferences)
Pre-decision tendencies (biases)
Reactions to feedback (coachability)3
2
1
HOGAN DECISIONS STYLE MODEL
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INFORMATION-PROCESSING
STYLE
LEARNING PREFERENCES
• Some people prefer to learn from stories (journalists, philosophers, etc.).
• Some people prefer to learn from data (engineers, accountants).
• There are individual differences in these preferences.
• These individual differences can be expressed in terms of four types.
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There are three important
pre-decision biases:
PRE-DECISION
BIASES
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RISK-AVERSE
VERSUS
REWARD-
SEEKING
• Risk-averse decisions minimize threat; they
are cautious, conservative, tentative,
incremental, and easily reversed.
• Reward-seeking decisions maximize payoffs;
they are bold, brave, decisive, and often hard
to reverse.
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TACTICAL
VERSUS
STRATEGIC
• Tactical decisions solve one decontextualized
problem at a time; they focus on cost and
implementation issues and try to control the
immediate bleeding.
• Strategic decisions try to fix the causes of
problems; they seek systematic and
sustainable future success.
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DATA-DRIVEN
VERSUS
INTUITIVE
• Data-driven decisions (Google) are slow,
deliberate, truth-seeking, and open to
revision.
• Intuitive decisions (the military) are fast,
opportunistic, “good enough”, and rarely
revised or revisited—people just move on.
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These three dimensions of biased decision making combine to form
eight types of decision makers.
PRE-DECISION TENDENCIES
TROUBLE SHOOTER
Avoids tactical threats
using data-based
decisions
SURGEON
Avoids tactical threats
using experience-based
decisions
DEFENSE ANALYSTS
Use strategic, data-
based decisions to
avoid long-term threats
STOCK TRADER
Seeks quick (tactical)
rewards using data-
based decisions
CEO
Uses opportunistic
decision making to
pursue long term
strategic rewards
CHESS PLAYERS
Defend against threats
using strategic,
experience-based
decisions
INVESTORS
Maximize long-term
rewards based on
strategic, data-based
decisions
PLAYER
Seeks quick payoffs
using opportunistic and
tactical decision making
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Risk Orientation: Threat-focused
Vision: Tactical
Thinking Style: Data-driven
Removes tactical threats using
quick data-driven decisions.
THE TROUBLE SHOOTER
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Risk Orientation: Threat-focused
Vision: Tactical
Thinking Style: Intuitive
Makes quick decisions based on
practical experience that minimize
risk and are easy to implement.
THE SURGEON
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Risk Orientation: Reward-focused
Vision: Tactical
Thinking Style: Data-driven
Makes data-driven tactical choices
designed to gain quick (tactical) payoffs
and rewards
THE STOCK TRADER
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Risk Orientation: Threat-focused
Vision: Strategic
Thinking Style: Data-driven
Makes data-driven decisions intended
to defend against a wide range of
specific threats.
.
THE DEFENSE ANALYST
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Risk Orientation: Reward-focused
Vision: Strategic
Thinking Style: Intuitive
Makes quick decisions based on a
broad understanding of the strategic
options available, decisions designed
to maximize long-term competitive
advantages.
THE CEO
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Risk Orientation: Threat-focused
Vision: Strategic
Thinking Style: Intuitive
Makes quick decisions based on
gut feelings, and past experience to
minimize threats to the big picture and
future strategic advantage.
.
THE CHESS PLAYER
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Risk Orientation: Reward-focused
Vision: Tactical
Thinking Style: Intuitive
Makes fast and intuitive decisions that
maximize short-term payoffs.
.
THE PLAYER
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Risk Orientation: Reward-focused
Vision: Strategic
Thinking Style: Data-driven
Relatively slow, data-driven decision-
making designed to maximize long-term
payoffs and strategic advantage.
THE INVESTOR
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• Research shows that 50% of all business decisions are wrong.
• There is never enough time or information, circumstances change, etc.
• In principle, good judgment cannot mean making correct decisions.
• Good judgment concerns how we handle feedback regarding bad decisions—which are most of them.
BAD DECISIONS ARE UNAVOIDABLE
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There are three dysfunctional reactions to feedback:
Defensive (blame others, get angry, bluster) versus cool-
headed review of the news. (Shoot the messenger)
Denial (ignore the feedback and move on) versus open-minded
acceptance of reality. (Ignore the messenger)
Superficial engagement (pretending to agree with the
feedback in order to get along) versus engaging authentically
with the feedback. (Mistrust the messenger)3
2
1
RESPONSES TO BAD DECISIONS
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Defensive response
May be seen as overly sensitive to criticism,
argumentative, and defensive.
DEFENSIVE
VS.
COOL-HEADED
Defensive: Becoming upset,
blaming others, and disagreeing
with feedback.
Cool-headed: Calm review of
negative feedback; open-minded
analysis of the situation.
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Denial response
May be seen as unable to learn from experience, and
having an inflated view of one’s own opinion.
DENIAL
VS.
ACCEPTANCE
Denial: Ignoring feedback or dissent,
spinning data, downplaying mistakes
or blaming them on others.
Acceptance: Acknowledging
responsibility for bad decisions,
considering the facts carefully, and
addressing the failure.
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Superficial Engagement response
May be seen as eager to please and unwilling to
deal with issues.
SUPERFICIAL
VS.
GENUINE
ENGAGEMENT
Superficial Engagement: Agree with
negative feedback to gain approval;
avoid unpleasantness instead of
taking responsibility.
Genuine Engagement: Committed to
improving future decision-making
through active participation in
feedback.
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POST-DECISION REACTIONS
• Avoid recognizing
mistakes:
– Defend
– Deny
– Comply
• Acknowledge and learn
from mistakes:
– Stay calm
– Accept feedback
– Engage feedback
LOW COACHABILITY HIGH
Responses to bad decisions:
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• The coaching industry pays little attention to individual
differences in coachability.
• Some people are more coachable than others.
• Coachability is a function of how people respond to
negative feedback.
• The Hogan Judgment Report evaluates how resistant or
receptive people will be to coaching.
• Coachability predicts a person’s ability to change.
COACHABILITY
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I’ll change, I’ll
change – I’ve
learned that I
have the strength
to change.
- Michael Corleone,
The Godfather: Part II
“
”
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SUMMARY
• Effective leadership depends on good decision making.
• All decision making is biased, and 50% of decisions are wrong.
• Good judgment involves fixing bad decisions and learning from experience.
• Group decision making is better than individual decision making because the individual biases cancel each other.
• Different jobs require different decision making styles.
• The success of Steve Jobs, Warren Buffet, and Jeff Bezos depends on their ambition and intelligent judgment, not their decision making styles.
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IN CONCLUSION
It is not what you don’t know that will hurt you,
It is what you do know that isn’t true.