After Campaign 2016, Can Consumer Advertisers Learn Anything From Political Campaigns?

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Transcript of After Campaign 2016, Can Consumer Advertisers Learn Anything From Political Campaigns?

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NATIONAL MEDIA

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After 2016, can consumer advertisers learn anything from political campaigns?Will FeltusSenior Vice PresidentNational Media Research, Planning and Placement LLCAlexandria VA

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OVERVIEW

How Consumer Advertising and Political Advertising are Different

What They have in Common:The Political Consumers Model

Can Consumer and Political Advertisers Learn Anything from One Another in 2017?

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Academic appearance by Trump TV buyer Ben Angle draws angry barbs from California college students as they enjoy a catered buffet dinner in D.C., February 2017.

Ask Me How Ive BenAffected byTrumps Media

You Contributedto theDisseminationof HATE

EVERYONEIs Welcome Here Trump Media Buyer Greeted by College Students

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HOW THEY ARE DIFFERENTConsumer and Political Advertising:

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PUBLIC SCRUTINY

Consumer campaigns take care to avoid potential negative reactions.

Low levels of public and news interest.Political campaigns expect negative reactions (and love to be criticized by the losers.)

High levels of public and news interest.

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PURCHASE OPPORTUNITY

Consumer MarketersThe store or website will be open again tomorrow.Political MarketersThe store is only open for one day (or a few weeks for absentee and early voting) then closed forever.

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TRACKING WHATS WORKING

Consumer Marketershave daily sales and customer level purchase data.

Political Marketershave a secret ballot problem.

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MEASURING SUCCESS AND ROI

Consumer campaigns can be very profitable with single digit market shares.Political campaigns ultimately fail if they are not #1 in their category.

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PLANNING HORIZONS AND PRICING

Consumer campaigns can plan over multiple quarters with price negotiating leverage and audience guarantees. Theres always next quarter.

Spot costs and CPMs are stablePolitical campaigns have uncertain cash flows and are typically funded on a week-by-week basis. Must pay unpredictable market rates with cash upfront. No guarantees or makegoods on ratings.

Multi-tiered rate cards change constantly

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POLITICAL MEDIA PLANNERS ALWAYS FACE RISING COSTS

and deal with a complicated and federally regulated sellside market.

Political advertisers are constantly pre-empted by other political advertisers willing to pay more.The so-called candidate lowest unit rate is obtuse at the local market level, and available only 45 days prior to a primary and 60 days prior to a general election.Non-candidate Super Pacs are forced by TV and cable outlets to pay 3x-4x the candidate rate.Theres no confidentiality all political ad orders must be publically disclosed.

WMURs presidential candidate rates up 200% in 11 months before New Hampshire primary.

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PUBLIC DISCLOSURE

Political advertisers require their agencies to collect and evaluate competitive advertising intelligence on a daily basis.

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MESSAGING AND TRAFFIC

Political campaigns constantly create new ad content and want it up the same day.

From September to November, Clinton and her Democratic allies aired 137 spots. Trump and Republican allies aired 80.CLINTON CAMPAIGNTRUMP CAMPAIGNPositive20Positive10Contrast25Contrast11Negative25Negative10DEMOCRAT THIRD-PARTYREPUPLICAN THIRD-PARTYPositive2Positive4Contrast8Contrast9Negative58Negative36

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During June-August, Clinton and her allies spent an estimated $127 million on TV versus Trump and allies total of $24 million. Trump spend was only 18% of Clinton.

Gap narrowed in September-November when Trump spend was 69% of Clinton.2016 PRESIDENTIAL AD SPENDINGSept-Nov Estimated Gross Spend in MillionsCLINTON CAMPAIGNCLINTON ALLIESCLINTON COMBINEDTRUMP CAMPAIGNTRUMP ALLIESTRUMP COMBINEDTRUMP $$ AS A % OF CLINTONNetwork Broadcast and Cable$52.026%$0-$52.019%$34.625%$11.522%$46.124%89%Local Broadcast and Cable$150.074%$73.3100%$223.381%$101.175%$41.978%$143.076%64%Total$202.0100%$73.3100%$275.3100%$135.7100%$53.4100%$189.1100%69%

Remember: Each third-party allied dollar is worth only 1/3 to 1/4 of a candidate dollar.

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MANAGEMENT

Consumer campaigns are long term, and run by experienced brand managers and vice-presidents of advertising. Political campaigns are short term organizations and dont have vice-presidents of advertising.

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MANAGEMENT

Creative & Account Mgt.Media BuyerThe Client

Most political ad consultants/agencies still operate on the old school model.

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MANAGEMENT

Some presidential and national party campaigns have used separate media and creative teams.Client

Creative & Account Mgt.

ClientMedia Team

Traditional Political ModelCurrent Consumer ModelCreative TeamMedia BuyerBush 2000, 2004 and Trump 2016 used independent creative and media teams.

McCain 2008 and Romney 2012 did not.

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PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT

Consumer campaigns only sell the soap.Political campaigns make the soap and sell it.

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MARKETING IS ONLY PART OF WHAT CAMPAIGN MANAGERS DO

Managing Insidethe CampaignManaging Outsidethe Campaign

Ten Key Roles the Campaign Manager Must Play

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CONTROL OF INFORMATION FLOW

Consumer campaigns and brands are infrequently affected by unanticipated outside information sources.Political campaigns and candidates are continually disrupted by information sources beyond their control.

News events and reporting, opposition candidates, pro- and anti- third party groups

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CANDIDATES REALLY ARENT BRANDS

The Gecko doesnt change the script, misspeak, or do his own tweets.

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WHAT THEY HAVE IN COMMONConsumer and Political Advertising:

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VOTERS ARE CONSUMERS OF POLITICS

1.) Consumption level

2.) Brand preference

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KEY TARGETING VARIABLES: VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP

1.) Consumption: Turnout Index

2.) Brand: Party IndexDEMOCRAT SKEWREPUBLICAN SKEW

HIGH TURNOUTLOW TURNOUTVoter Turnout IndexParty Index

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ADULT VOTING PROPENSITY BY PARTY AFFILIATION: 2014-16

Democrat 27.6%

Independent, but feel closer to Democrat9.9%None of these20.4%Independent, but feel closer to Republican9.3%Republican 22.8%Independent10.1%

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MEDIA HEAVINESS: TOP TWO QUINTILES

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MEDIA HEAVINESS: TV

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THE EXPANDING PARTISAN CABLE NEWS UNIVERSE: 2000 - 2016

In 2000 all three news nets had center-right audiences

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VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: CABLE NETWORKS

LOWER TURNOUTHIGHER TURNOUTVoter Turnout Index

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VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: NEWS

LOWER TURNOUTHIGHER TURNOUTVoter Turnout Index

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VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: PRIMETIME TV

LOWER TURNOUTHIGHER TURNOUTVoter Turnout Index

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CAN THEY LEARN ANYTHING FROM ONE ANOTHER IN 2017?Consumer and Political Advertising:

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POLITICS OF CONSUMERS

Consumer marketers need to understand the politics of their customers and their competition.

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VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP: RETAIL

Voter Turnout Index

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VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP: RESTAURANTS

Voter Turnout Index

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IDENTIFYING OPINION LEADERS: ELITES AND INFLUENCERS

If corporate reputation is important to your client, learn how to reach well-informed and highly-involved opinion leaders.

10% - 25% of American adults

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ELITES AND INFLUENCERS: SPORTS

Elites + Influencers Index

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NATIONAL MEDIA

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HIGH TURNOUTLOW TURNOUTVoter Turnout IndexRepublican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEWREPUBLICAN SKEW

Copyright 2013 W. Feltus & NMRPP LLC41

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AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION BONUS QUESTION

What is the most Republican soft drink?

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