African THORPEX Status By Aida Diongue-Niang Senegal Meteorological Agency THORPEX AR1 Rapporteur...

African THORPEX Status

By

Aida Diongue-Niang

Senegal Meteorological Agency

THORPEX AR1 Rapporteur

African THORPEX Regional Committee co-chair

ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 1

ICSC-9

Relatively poor performance on modeling systems over Africa (particularly in Tropical Africa):

1.Misrepresentation of some key processes (NWP & Climate models )2.Poor observing network (+ transmission failure )

+ An important Gap in NWP model development and use in Africa

THORPEX-Africa: context and motivation

Impact on forecast and service delivery for societal and economic needs

THORPEX-Africa aims at contributing to : Improve forecasts and reduce the adverse effects of hydro-meteorological related natural disasters in Africa and Promote multidisciplinary collaboration between research, operations, applications and user communities through studies in line with societal and economical needs in Africa.

2ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

DAOS1: Design of an

optimum network in Africa

DAOS2:Use of non

conventional observing systems

DAOS3: Improvement of

telecommunications facilities

PDP2: Contributing to the Development of Seamless forecast by filling the gap in

intraseasonnal timescales

PDP1: Predictive Skill of

high impact weather

SERA1: High-impact

weather database

SERA2: Forecast

verification and cost/benefit assessments

TIGGE

Predictability and

Dynamical Processes

Societal and Economic Research

Application

observing systems

3

HIWIS

3

ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

THORPEX-Africa Implementation, Plan, 2009

THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste

Sponsor (THORPEX Trust Fund, ICTP, GEO, RIPIECSA)


Attended by :• Representatives of National Meteorological services

throughout the African continent (~20) and ACMAD• Representatives of major forecasting centres (ECMWF, NCEP,

UK Met Office METEO-France, DWD)• Research scientists (climate/meteorology, information

system, hydrology, socio-economic) from Africa, Europe and North America,

• Representatives of relevant programmes (AMMA, GEO, EUMETNET/GEONetCAst, JWGFR, SERA, THORPEX WG, MEDEX, WIS, SDS-WAS, UCAR Africa Initiative, etc)

THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste

Objectives

To have a better picture of HIW in Africa , their impact and the warning process used.


To give a momentum to THORPEX-Africa planned activities regarding HIW Information system and predictability studies.

To identify tools and products available in/for African Met. Services for predicting HIW.

Pre-CAS-XV , Incheon , 17-18 November 2009 6

T

T

Tg

sS sSsS

Main High-impact WeatherIn AfricaFrom NHMS presentations

Dry spellsTropical cyclonesCyclogenesisFlooding and LandslidesStrong windsSand & Dust Episodes, Heat wavesFrost


Tools for Predicting HIW /Assessing predictability

Hetegeneous level across the continent:

1. Use of few NWP global models products through EUMETCAST distribution

2. Use of more NWP products using also Internet for dedicated Web page and/or through Retim distribution

3. Additional diagnostics with regional/local models, research-developemnt activities, e.g. SAWS, Morroco, Algeria, Kenya Senegal

4. Systematic verification and feedback: only in few centres or in a framework pf projects (e.g. SWFDP)

5. Use of ensemble prediction: very rare, few countries mostly in Southern Africa with the SWFDP


Why A High-Impact Weather Predictability and Information System ?

The limitation of well documented cases of high impact events and data exchange within African sub-regions: a severe impediment to progress in reducing the adverse effects related to HIW

Need for a mechanism to collect and exchange high impact weather data facilitate processes/predictability studies, socio-economic research applications, forecast improvement and mitigation of detrimental effects of HIW. .Requirement to establish a database of key high-impact African weather events, consisting of observations, model outputs, event-documentation and associated predictability studies analyses, (evaluation, modelling) 8ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011

Approach for implementation

9

While seeking for funding start the work in parallel with a few selected case studies (on a sub-regional basis; north, west, central, east, southern Africa) with

data collection (both weather and impact data) to feed an interim information system

model assessment to predict high-impact weather on the other hand will be performed


10

2009

2008

19972007?

20082009?

Representatives of Met Services proposed to work at sub-regional basis focussing first on flooding eventsbut also dust events & aerosols, dry spells, heat waves, marine hazards


Coordi.West

Coordi.East& Centre

Coord. South

African RC

Coordi.North

Focal P. NMHS1

Focal P. NMHS2

Focal P. NMHSn

Case studies at regional level

11

3 -year demonstration project with 3 phases


OUAGADOUGOU

From Guillaume Nacoulma, Lamin Touray,


September 2009 flooding in the Sahel

DAKAR ROSSO

13

01 September 2009 0600

Flash Flood in Burkina Faso, September 1st 2009


261mm in 10 hours. 2/3 of the annual mean

Flooding in Senegal


02 September 2009 2100

2 weeks of wet spell


B CA D


B C

A

D

Hovmuller time-longitude Rel. Vorticity [9-15N]


SST Anomalies Third August decad (2009 vs Climatology)Pattern of enhancement of monsoon circulation at subseasonal timescale

2009 Anomalously Wet in Western WAM Region


AMO

Sutton and Hodson 2005

Link to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation?

East Africa Case (Heavy rainfall in October 1997)


October 1997 rainfall for Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya

2 to 10 times the October mean!

From Babu (Ethiopia), Changa’a (Tanzania), Mwangi (kenya) and Morel (La Réunion)


LONGITUDE (Degree)

LA

TIT

UD

E (

De

gre

e)

OLR Average

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300October 1989-2008 (W/m²)

LONGITUDE (Degree)

LA

TIT

UD

E (

De

gre

e)

OLR Anomalies

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

(W/m²)

October 1997

Seasonal context of the East African EventBessafi (La Reunion)


89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07-4

-2

0

2

4MEI

Clim

ate

ind

ex

89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07-4

-2

0

2

4SOI

Clim

ate

ind

ex

89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07-4

-2

0

2

4NAO

Year

Clim

ate

ind

ex

89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07-4

-2

0

2

4IOD

Year

Clim

ate

ind

ex

15°S-10°N/30°E-45°E15°S-10°N/30°E-45°E

15°S-10°N/30°E-45°E 15°S-10°N/30°E-45°E

a) b)

c) d)

Rainfall

HIW event in the context of 1997 EL Nino event and anomalies in the Indian Ocean

Climate indexesRainfall


two jets associated with strong positive PV anomalies. dynamical forcing over north tropical area

Vertical cross section zonal wind and PV anomalies

November 2008 flooding in South Africa


Heavy rainfall events in some parts of South Africa on the 11 and 12th November. death of 27 people in Western Cape province. Most provinces in the interior of South Africa experienced convective rainfallwith many lightning strokes recorded. The main weather events that caused this were cut off low, troughs, fronts and surface lows

(Ngwana, South Africa)


Flooding in November 2008 in South Algeria

190mm at Aïn Sefra, leading to flooding of the of the rivers El Beridj et Mouileh causing crossing the town of Aïn Sefra2 deaths, displaced people, closed roads, etc

Benrekta, Algeria)

Status of case studies • Progress has been slow in 2010-2011• Phase 1: i)synoptic analysis, ii)extremeness analysis,

iii)conceptual model still not completed• Problems of resources: human for animation; funding for

networking, training • Structural problems: poor operational environment, lack of

skill, limited human resources, poor interaction with universities

• Low involvement and commitment at higher level in NHMSs

TO FOLLOW-UP Invite THORPEX working groups, PDP, TIGGE to be involved in

African THORPEX case studies. Need of minimum of resources to enable people interacting

while seeking in parallel for more resources ICSC-9, Geneve, 21-22 September 2011 25

Status of the interim database

• One Terabyte (1 TB) of disk space allocated by ICTP but there is the need to design the database and frame the associated metadata.

• ICTP can help build the database that can be transferred to another African centre. This will require a person dedicated for this purpose who can go and work at ICTP as a visitor for a specified period of time.

• To Follow-up and given minimum of resources• Inviting SERA to be involved in the database design


Way forward: Implementation activities

Linking THORPEX-Africa research to operations• Design a template on (HIW) events and encourage and

promote reporting of HIW close to near real-time and near real-time model verification if access to more products from global centres is enabled. Feedback to be provided.

• Customized TIGGE products for validation & application in Africa ? Working with the TIGGE WG and the SWFDPs in Southern Africa and with RSMCs in other regions?

Continue to seek for funding Training on NWP and ensembles forecasting and TIGGE

dataset.


Membership

• In the terms of reference of the regional committee , it was stated that, after 4 years (then December 2011), half of the members should step down and replaced by new members.

• The membership should be kept at ten or below.


Current Membership1. Ernest Afiesimama, Meteorological Agency, Nigeria, (JSC)

2. Amare Babu, National Meteorological Service, Ethiopia

3. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman, Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration (GIMPA) Accra, Ghana, (SERA)

4. Arona Diedhiou, Institute for Research and Development (IRD), France

5. Aida Diongue-Niang, Meteorological Agency, Senegal, co-chair

6. Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, African Centre of Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD), Niger

7. Joseph Katongo KANYANGA, Zambia Meteorological Department

8. Benjamin Lamptey, Regional Maritime University, Accra, Ghana, co-chair

9. Abdellah Mokssit, Meterological Office, Morocco

10. Zilore Mumba, African Centre of Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD), Niger to be replaced by his scuccessor at ACMAD

11. Isaac Ngwana, South African Weather Service

12. Franklin Opijah, University of Nairobi, Kenya


Meeting in Early 2012?

• Last formal regional committee meeting: July 2008• A Regional Committee (RC) meeting conjointly with small

workshop involving some RC members and others resource persons in January/February 2012.

• The RC meeting to present the status of THORPEX and way forward to members particularly the newly appointed ones and discuss the specific work assigned to each member of the RC.

• Small workshop to develop templates to be submitted to NHMSs indicating HIW for further study, to discuss and advance case studies, to develop programs to derive products (TIGGE, Deterministic global models).


African THORPEX Status By Aida Diongue-Niang Senegal Meteorological Agency THORPEX AR1 Rapporteur...

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