A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP POLAR PREDICTION WORKSHOP:

“A THORPEX CONTRIBUTION TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF POLAR PREDICTIONS

ON WEATHER-TO-SEASONAL TIMESCALES”

(6 TO 8 OCTOBER 2010, OSLO, NORWAY)

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Background

• A proposal to establish a THORPEX (NWP) Polar Project as an legacy of the IPY was approved by the THORPEX ICSC-8 in November 2009 and was subsequently strongly supported by the recent meeting of the CAS in Korea.

• Met.no was asked by David Burridge in ICSC and the president of CAS, Michel Beland to convene a workshop to develop proposals for an IPY follow on (a THORPEX polar project) in spring 2010

• Met.no accepted to convene the workshop

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• The main outcome of this workshop is the design of a WMO THORPEX Polar Prediction Research Project that provides an efficient framework for co-operative international research and development efforts to improve operational weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions.

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The workshop will open with a series of presentations outlining:

• The Scientific Challenges of weather and environmental prediction in the Polar Regions

• Programmatic activities• Scientific activities

The second half of the workshop will be given over to discussions on the requirements and framework for an International Polar research Project to include the preparation of a “status paper

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• The outcomes of the workshop will be reported to the ICSC, the WWRP/JSC and the WCRP/JSC.

• In addition, a report will be provided for the forthcoming EC-PORS meeting and the WCRP Polar meeting which will take place later in October.

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Why do we need to focus on Polar regions?

• Concerns about an amplification of anthropogenic climate change at higher latitudes combined with an increasing interest of many governments throughout the polar regions requires a better understanding of weather and environmental processes in polar region in order to improve our ability to make reliable, quantitative predictions out to a season ahead.

• In order to achieve this, there is a need to improve the understanding of the impact of polar processes on polar weather, the assimilation of data in polar regions and the prediction of high impact weather over polar regions.

• The benefit of NWP/EP applications in Polar Regions has been somewhat delayed due the higher priority of forecasting in the more densely populated mid-latitude and tropical regions.

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Source: ACIA

Arctic sea ice change 1979-2004

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Increased activity

e.g. • Fisheries• New ship routes• hydrocarbon exploitation activities• insurance and regulatory bodies• port authorities • tour operators • national policy- and decision-makers.

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But harsh weather

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..and poorer forecast quality than for lower latitudes

RMS error of mslp forecasts with the Norwegian limited area model system (HIRLAM) over a two year period; the Barents Sea in red and the North Sea in blue.

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Practical arrangements

• Coffe breaks – served just outside the lecture room

• Lunch - self service in on of the two restaurants

• Reception – met.no invites you to a reception outside the lecture room at 17.30 today

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I am looking forward to an interesting efficient and productive workshop…

GOOD LUCK!