Aether Analytics Technical Conspectus July 18, 2014

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Weekly Technical Analysis Newsletter. We specialize in isolated symmetry wave patterns. This is for education purposes only. No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein

Transcript of Aether Analytics Technical Conspectus July 18, 2014

  • ther Analytics Weekly Technical Conspectus publ ish date : 7/18/2014

    Author : Alex Bernal, CMT

    [email protected]

    805.252.7161

  • DISCLAIMER

    The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (we or us ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by us that such information is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do not undertake

    to advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.

    This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or

    otherwise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their own investment

    decisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are

    denominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment

    is not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.

    To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice

    and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

    The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other

    participants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.

    No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees,

    representatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation,

    trading losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.

    Report Details

    Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included.

    Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening

    If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email

    alex@aetheranalytics. Com

    User Guide Download Link > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf

  • Table of Contents

    Section 1 : Quick Glance Table Summary

    Section 2 : Currencies Section 3 : Energy Complex Section 7 : Grains & Softs

    AUDCAD WTI CRUDE Corn

    AUDJPY Brent Crude Soybeans

    AUDNZD Natural Gas Soybean Oil

    AUDUSD Section 4 : Interest Rates Oats

    EURAUD 10 Year Treasury Note Wheat

    EURCAD 30 Year Treasury Bond Coffee

    EURGBP Ultra Bond Sugar

    EURJPY Section 5 : Indices Cotton

    EURNZD S&P 500 Cocoa

    EURTRY Nasdaq 100 Section 10 : Sample Portfolio Tracking

    EURUSD Russell 2000 Section 11 : Appendix

    GBPAUD DJIA

    GBPCAD VIX (VXX / VXZ)

    GBPJPY Nikkei

    GBPNZD Shanghai

    HKDJPY Heng Seng

    NZDJPY Jakarta

    NZDUSD Section 6 : Metals

    USDCAD Gold

    USDHKD Silver

    USDJPY Platinum

    Palladium

  • Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

    Time Frame Recommended Entry

    Price

    Current Stops Targets Quick Note

    AUDCAD Daily Successful Bearish Harmonic

    AUDJPY Daily

    AUDNZD Bullish Cypher

    AUDUSD Daily Bearish Bat

    CADJPY Low pattern Rank Bearish Butterfly / Crab. Confirmed Reversal

    EURAUD Daily Buy Stop Entry 1.466 1.4354 & 1.4253 1.52 & 1.56 Bullish Reversal imminent

    EURCAD Daily Buy Stop Entry 1.4688 1.4367 & 1.4277 1.52 Bullish Bat

    EURGBP Daily Near bullish bat on weekly

    EURJPY Daily Entry Triggered 140.00 139.8 &138.23 134 Trade is Live Triangle Breakout

    EURNZD Weekly Buy Stop Entry 1.58 1.5394 & 1.5275 Weekly Bullish Gartley

    EURTRY Possible Bullish Bat @ 2.75. No trade suggestions currently

    EURUSD Weekly Entry Triggered 1.367 1/2 @ 1.385 1/2 @ 1.4132 1.24 Trade is Live

    GBPAUD

    GBPCAD Possible complex head and shoulders top pattern

    GBPJPY Low Ranking Bearish Butterfly

    GBPNZD

    HKDJPY Weekly Continuation Triangles

    NZDJPY Weekly Entry Triggered 0.86 1/2 @ 90 1/2 @ 92.31 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave Entry triggered 5/29/2014

    NZDUSD Daily

    USDCAD Daily Entry Triggered 1.07 1/2 @ 1.067, 1/2 @ 1.063 1.11 Trade Is Live

  • Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

    Time Frame Recommended Entry

    Price

    Current Stop Targets Quick Note

    USDJPY

    USDMXN

    USDSGD Daily Buy Stop entry 1.246 Bullish Bat

    WTI CRUDE 1/2 Stopped out @ 104.48, 1/2 stopped at 103.30

    BRENT CRUDE Weekly Buy stop entry 113.07 All @ 103.13 145 / 75 Trade its Live Large Scale symmetrical triangle on weekly,

    Nat Gas Extended Shark

    RBOB Gasoline Daily Entry Triggered 2.99 3.26 & 3.11 2.70, 2.30 Trade is Live

    Heating OIl No tradable patterns.

    10 YEAR NOTE Potential H&S Bottom

    30 YEAR BOND Weekly Entry Triggered 135.16 1/2 @ 133.44, 1/2 @ 130.90 142.16 Trade is Live

    SP500 Small Scale Wolfe Wave

    NASDAQ 100 Daily Sell Stop 38.20 Suggested 1/2 @ 4000 1/2 @ 3957 3600 Bearish Crab (Hedge Long Russell)

    RUSSELL 2000

    DJIA Low Rank Deep Crab

    VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns.

    NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias

    SHANG HAI INDEX Daily

  • Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

    Time Frame Recommended Entry

    Price

    Current Stop Targets Quick Note

    HENG SENG

    JAKARTA Weekly Entry Triggered 4848 5200 4000 Trade is Live

    BOMBAY SENSEX

    US Dollar Index Daily Entry Triggered 80.55 80.15 & 79.81 82 & 84 Trade is Live

    GOLD Weekly Buy stop entry 1400 1/2 @ 1196.3, 1/2 @ 1153 1650 Weekly Possible bullish reverse head and shoulders

    SILVER Daily Entry Triggered 20.00 1/2 @ 20.33 22 & 24 Trade is Live (1/2 stopped out at 20.75)

    Platinum Daily

    Palladium

    Copper Possible Bearish Gartley

    Corn Weekly Shark Support

    Soybeans Weekly Daily Entry Triggered 1440 1/2 @ 1210 1300 & 1050 Trade is Live (7/11 1/2 profits taken at 1231.50)

    Soybean Oil

    Oats Gar Fly on Daily

    Wheat Daily Trade is Live. Target 2 complete (covered 1/2 short at 655.25) (covered 1/4 @ 585.75) (1/4 covered @ 548.75)

    Coffee Low Pattern Rank Alt Bat

    Sugar No tradable patterns.

    Cotton No tradable patterns.

    Cocoa Weekly Entry Triggered 2866 1/2 @ 3201 2600 & 2200 Trade is Live Bearish Crab Pattern (1/2 stopped at 3085)

  • Currencies

  • AUDCAD- Bearish butterflyFirst attempt got stopped out. Target 1 completed.

  • AUDCAD Weekly Bearish butterfly

  • AUDNZD - Great Move off Cypher Harmonic

  • AUDUSD - Low Pattern Rank Bearish Bat

  • CADJPY - Low Pattern Rank Bearish Butterfly / Crab

  • EURAUD - Weekly LookWe think this is following the Copsey 3 wave impulse model since wave 1 is clearly 3 waves up, and wave 3 is as well. We have measured

    out the high probability zone where wave 4 could complete and reverse back up to new highs in a wave 5.

  • EURAUD - Daily Look Current pattern is Three Drives low / Wolfe Wave. We have seen nice bullish price action here. Buy stop to entry recommended at 1.466. Tar-

    get 1 is the Wolfe Wave EPA line at 1.52 and Target 2 is 1.56. Stops will be at 1.4253 if filled.

  • EURCAD Bullish Bat Confirmed, Buy stop entry 1.4688 suggested. If filled stops @ 1.4366 & 1.4277 with target of 1.52 at a minimum.

  • EURGBP Weekly Look Approaching Bat SupportNo trade suggested at this time

  • EURNZD Weekly Look Approaching Bat SupportSee next page for trade specs

  • EURNZD Daily Look Buy stop entry suggested at 1.58 with initial stops at1.5395 & 1.5275. Target is on the weekly scale of 1.669

  • EURJPYTrade is Live, Sell stop entry triggered 140. Stops are all at 140.00. Measured move target 134. Analysis : Corrective Symmetrical triangle breakout.

  • EURNZDWeekly Bullish GartleyStrong downside momentum underway

  • EURTRYWeekly Bullish Bat

  • EURUSD Weekly Trade is Live. Sell stop entry triggered at 1.367. Stops at 1.387 and 1.414 Potential downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term.

  • GBPJPY Weekly Low Rank Bearish Butterfly

  • NZDJPY weekly TRADE IS LIVELooking to at on a break below 2 4 wave trendline. Very high ranking pattern symmetry. Clearly a 5 wave EW impulse with a Bat-Crab in be-

    tween wave 3 and 5. When we get a high ranking Ew pattern that also has a Harmonic relationship in the 35 wave termination points its a very high conviction trade setup. We recommend 200%

    normal position size for aggressive traders. Sell stop to entry at 86.00, with stops at 89.95 & 92.39 respectively. Minimum expected targets are 78 and 70.

  • NZDJPY weekly TRADE IS LIVEDaily Look

  • USDCAD Trade is Live Stop loss buy entry 1.07, Stops at 1.06 & 1.055, with Targets at 1.11

  • USDSGD Low Ranking Bat Pattern

  • Energy

  • Brent WeeklyTrade is Live Large scale symmetrical triangle.

  • RBOB Gasoline Trade is Live2.99 filled short, Stops at 3.26 and 3.11 with Targets at 2.70 & 2.30

  • RBOB Gasoline Three Drive to a Top & Bearish Gartley. Sell stop entry recommended at 2.99 with stops at 3.15 & 3.10 if filled. Targets are 2.75 & 2.65.

  • Interest Rates

  • US 10 Year Treasury NotePotential Head and Shoulders Bottom

  • US 30 Year Treasury BondWeekly Trade is Live. Buy stop for a long entry was triggered on 5/1/2014. Weekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout. Stops are

    at 133.61& 130.83. Possible target measured move is 143.

  • US 30 Year Treasury BondDaily Trade is Live. Buy stop for a long entry was triggered on 5/1/2014. Weekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout. Stops are at

    133.61& 130.83. Possible target measured move is 143.

  • Indices

  • SP 500 Small Scale Wolfe Wave

  • Nasdaq Futures Bearish ButterflySell stop level 38.20, if filled stops at 4022 & 3969. target is 3600 minimum.

  • Dow 30 Futures Low Rank Bearish Butterfly

  • Jakarta IndexUpdate : Trade is Live. High ranking bearish Gartley pattern on the weekly scale. There is also nice symmetry inside the X and C legs. This indicates there is some well behaved

    wave energy occurring in this market and should be high conviction trade. We recommend %150 bigger position size than normal. Stops at 5300 & 5136. Target is 4000

  • Metals

  • DXY US Dollar Index Daily Trade is LIve Bullish 5-0 Pattern (1/2 normal position size suggested) Buy stop entry suggested 80.55, if filled stops at 79.62 & 79.30 with tar-

    gets at 82 & 84.

  • Gold Weekly Possible bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern off of the Major harmonic support level zone. If neck line is breached at 1400 a small buy stop to

    entry for long trade is recommended with stops at 1196 and 1153 respectively. Minimum measured move target would be 1650.

  • Silver Trade is Live Buy stop entry 20.00 with stops at 1/2 @ 20.75, 1/2 @ 20.33 with Targets at 22 & 24.

  • Silver Weekly Trade is Live Bullish Bat Support, 24.00 Reverse Head and Shoulders reversal confirmation level

  • Copper Daily Possible Bearish Gartley

  • Grains & Softs

  • Soybeans Weekly/daily. Entry Triggered 1440 7/11/2014 1/2 profits taked at 1231.50 .Stops at 1210 for remaining position, Targets 1050 still in play.

  • Wheat Trade is Live. Last Piece covered at 545.55

  • Cocoa Trade is Live. Sell stop entry filled 2866. 1/2 stopped out at 3075 Stops are at 3201. Bearish Crab Pattern on the weekly scale. Nice structure rating here. This

    is a high probably trade set up. We recommend using 150% larger size on this trade. Targets are 2600 and 2200.

  • Portfolio Tracking

  • Sample Portfolio Tracking In the effort to help our subscribers learn how to effectively manage a forex, futures & Stock portfolio we have build a sample portfolio tracking log that utilizes a

    base $10,000,000.00 NAV starting balance and trades all pips, points and ticks gained or lost. In efforts to simplify this log we will not include commissions or broker

    fees since these will vary from subscriber to subscriber. This is in no way meant to be representative of actual capital being managed but solely for educational pur-

    poses to show the subscriber how we are performing with our trade suggestions and risk management. We will strive to keep the most accurate trading perfor-

    mance statistics possible and also keep our log simplified and transparent.

    - Forex : We will assume a minimum trade lot size of 10 Mini forex lots for all FX trades unless noted otherwise.

    (10,000 units of quote currency)

    Futures: We will assume a minimum trade lot size of 1 standard futures contract for all futures trades unless noted otherwise.

    Equities : %200 NAV of portfolio will be the base multiplier for share size. (rounded up to nearest whole)

    Subscribers are responsible for calculating there own optimal position sizes in accordance to there own individual risk tolerances.

    The information in this report is based upon public sources Aether Analytics LLC (we or us ) believes reliable, but no representation is made by us that such infor-mation is accurate or complete. The views expressed above represent our personal and subject view as of the date of this newsletter, and we do not undertake to

    advise you of any change in the reported information or in opinions expressed herein.

    This report was prepared and issued by us for distribution to sophisticated investors, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, individualized or other-

    wise. Investments involve substantial risk, and the investments referred to herein may not be suitable for each investor. Investors must make their own investment de-

    cisions in consultation with their professional advisors in light or their specific circumstances. The value of investments may fluctuate, and investments that are de-

    nominated in foreign currencies may fluctuate in value as result of exposure to exchange rate movements. Information about past performance of an investment is

    not necessarily a guide to, indicator of, or assurance of, future performance. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any security.

    To the maximum extent permitted by law, Aether Analytics LLC disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, options, advice

    and / or recommendations in the report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

    The publisher shall act with integrity, competence, diligence, respect, and in an ethical manner with the public, clients, prospective clients, colleagues and other

    participants in the global capital markets. You may use the information provided at your own risk.

    No representation is being made that the information will produce trading profits, or limit trading losses. In no event shall Aether Analytics LLC or its employees, repre-

    sentatives, affiliates or contributing authors be held liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages, whatsoever (including without limitation, trading

    losses or any other losses incurred) arising from the use or inability to use the information contained herein.

  • Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L

    EURNZD 4/11/2014 Long 1.605 1.58 1.570 5/6/2014 avg (1.575) - 0.03

    NZDUSD 4/11/2014 Short 0.8635 0.88 0.89 5/6/2014 avg (0.876) -0.125

    AUDJPY 4/15/2014 Short 95.00 95.72 5/14/2014 Avg (95.72) -0.72

    AUDUSD 4/17/2014 Short 0.9325 0.910 0.88 5/3/2014 0.93875 -0.00625

    EURAUD 4/23/2014 Long 1.488 1.45 5/6/2014 1.445 -0.043

    GBPNZD 4/16/2014 Long 1.953 1.93 5/6, 5/15 Avg 1.936 -0.017

    WTI Crude 4/22/2014 Short 102.58 102.58 104 5/1, 5/14 1 @ 99.00

    1@ 102.58

    +3.58, +0.0

    Shanghai 4/22/2014 Short 2185 2171 2146 5/29 1@2144 +28.41

    AUDCAD 4/29/2014 Short 1.01 1.015 1.0123 6/4/2014 Avg 1.0192 -0.0092

    30 Year 5/1/2014 Long 135.16 133.61 130.83

    EURJPY 5/9/2014 Short 140 139.8 138.23

    10 Year 5/9/2014 Long 125.05 125.58 125.37 6/4 1 @ 125.37 0.295 +

    Palladium 5/7/2014 Short 800 844.28 832.54 5/21/2014 830.13/844 -30.13 / - 44

    Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on the previous page

    * Shaded row denotes closed trade

  • Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L

    Wheat 5/12/2014 Short 722.25 568 5/23/2014

    6/13/2014

    655.25 (1/2)

    585.75 (1/4)

    +67.00

    + 136.50

    Cocoa 5/9/2014 Short 2866 3204 6/4 1/2 @ 3074 -208

    NZDJPY 5/29/2014 Short 0.86 89.85 92.39

    Russell 2000 5/28/2014 Long 1140 1/2 @ 1185

    1/2 @ 1700

    +45

    +30

    Platinum 5/28/2014 Short 1466 6/4

    6/24

    1/2 @ 1423

    1/2 @ 1473

    +43

    -7

    Copper 5/30/2014 Short 3.13 6/20

    6/23

    1/2 @ 3.10

    1/2 @ 3.1511

    +.03

    -.0211

    EURUSD 5/15/2014 Short 1.3665 1.385 1.4132

    WTI Crude 6/12/2014 Long 105.23 103.95 104.32 7/2 1/2 @ 104.48

    1/2 @ 103.30

    -0.75

    -1.93

    Brent Crude 6/12/2014 Long 113.07 103.13

    Soybeans 6/12/2014 Short 1440 1210 1/2 @ 1231.50 +208.50

    Soybean Oil 6/13/2014 Long 39.50 39.49 38.80 6/30 1/2 @ 39.48 -0.02

    Jakarta 6/24 Short 4848 5200

    USDCAD 7/11 Long 1.07 1.067 1.063

    Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on the previous page

  • Symbol Entry Date Long/Short Basis Price Current Stop #1 Current Stop #2 Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L

    RBOB 7/10/2014 Short 2.99 3.26 3.11

    Silver 6/19/2014 Long 20.00 20.75 7/15/2014 20.33 (1/2) +.33

    DXY 7/16/2014 Long 80.55 80.15 79.81

    Trade Log *Portfolio position sizing & P/L is based on the 2 sample portfolios tracked on the previous page

  • Sample Portfolio Performance

    Performance Table * Portfolio Performance is calculated only from closed trades

    Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Jan

    2014 0.0% -4.259% 16.16% 0.0%

    2015

    Risk Return Profile

    Starting NAV 10MM

    Performance YTD 11.21%

    Performance since inception 11.21%

    Max Draw Down 19.76%

    Annual RoR 85.16%

    Monthly Annual Compound Return 5.268&

    Sharpe since inception 0.3682

    Profit Factor 1.385

  • Appendix

    Methodology & Strategy

    Harmonic any component of a periodic oscillation whose frequency is and integral multiple of the fundamental frequency.

    The periods of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by the small whole number. - J.M. Hurst

    Our aim with this report is to only focus on identifying the best possible trading patterns that are occurring in any given market. We utilize a variety of algorithms to

    find specific geometric ratio wave patterns that have favorable risk to reward projected movements. Most of our trades are harmonic patterns and ideal symmetry

    elliott waves in the tradition of H.M. Gartley, Larry Pesavento, Ross Beck, Scott Carney, R.N. Elliot, Ian Copsey & Bryce Gilmore. We blend all the best nuances that

    we have studied and thoroughly tested from each of the noted analysts and have also developed some proprietary tools of our own for trade qualification, entry

    and management. In terms of Elliot Wave theory we analyze waves in isolation for our primary trading time periods (daily & weekly). We dont believe in the

    subjective nature of manually counting elliott waves but rather only focusing on 5 and 3 wave patterns that have perfect symmetry in regards to time and price. In

    essence we focus only on waves we recognize to have high probability fractal structures. Meaning only if specific geometric symmetry is identified we then

    investigate for a trade entry point. When the market is creating wave fractals that are not amongst our high probability pattern repertoire no trade is taken or

    forecasted.

    Common Newsletter Nomenclature

    Pattern RankOur proprietary measurement system ranks patterns based on many variables within the internal structure as well as the macro technical environment

    (longer term waves & trend). We will highlight these patterns but if the rank is too low we will not recommend a trade.

    PRZPotential Reversal Zone, is also defined as our clearly defined level that a pattern must reach / test at least once in order to qualify as a harmonic pattern

    Pattern NamesBAT, BUTTERFLY, GARTLEY, GARFLY, CYPHER, SHARK, ALT BAT, CRAB, DEEP CRAB These labels refer to specific harmonic 5 point fractal structures

    that appear in the markets. Please refer to the USER GUIDE here > http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf or full specifics and details

    for each pattern

    Detrended OscillatorOne of the only 2 indicators we will refer to in our charts is the Detrended Oscillator this is a proprietary calculation and is very similar to

    RVALUE indicator laid out by Mark W. Helweg & David C. Stendahl in there book Dynamic Trading Indicators. We have found this to be a great tool in analyzing the

    over extending to the up and downside of a markets normal behavior. It is also very useful for finding divergence point between price and momentum.

  • Appendix

    These standing wave patterns represent the lowest energy vibrational modes of the object or complex system. While there are countless way by which an object

    can vibrate (each associated with a specific frequency), objects favor only a few specific modes or patterns of vibrating. The favored modes (patterns) of vibration

    are those which result in the highest amplitude vibrations with the least input of energy. -AE

    Trade Management

    We primarily recommend trades that have a minimum of 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Initial risk (stop loss) levels we often utilize are (ATR 14, 1.618), (ATR 21, 1.272), (ATR

    14, 2.5) (ATR 21, 3.0) from the entry price. Then a trailing stop from the current price is used with the ATR measures previously outlined. Entry technique is the only

    somewhat subject process in our trading methodology. Users should always be aware that if a trade risk to reward ratio is less than 3:1 then the entry point, risk point

    or minimum targets need to be revised. We always show 2 potential target areas for each trade. Once Target 1 has been reached we recommend at a minimum

    putting the trade stop loss at break even. Typically we take 1/2 the position off at Target 1 and trail stops until target 2 is reached or we get stopped out.

    Position Sizing

    There are many different ways we suggest utilizing position sizing for your portfolio. For the purpose of this newsletter we will simply suggest our confidence rating in

    the context of each trade. When we mention Normal position size this is size that you have determined to be most optimal position size for your specific risk

    tolerance and trade management style. We will suggest 1/2 (50%) normal or 3/4 (75%) normal for trades we have slightly less confidence in & 6/4 (150%) or 8/4

    (200%) for trades we have more confidence in. This is only a suggestion and should only be considered as opinion or commentary from us for each trade. We never

    ever recommend betting the farm or going all in in any trade because it surely leads to ruin. One of our favorite Portfolio position sizing formulas that we

    recommend is the following:

    Percent Volatility Sizing -{ Position Size = (CE * %PE) / SV }- Where CE is the current account equity (NAV of portfolio, %PE is percentage of portfolio equity to

    risk per trade (2%, 3% and 4% are recommended), SV is the stocks 14 day ATR

  • Author Bio

    Alex Bernal, CMT

    Alex Bernal is a Chartered Market Technician with many years of industry experience in the equity, commodity, currency, interest rate and derivatives markets. Alex

    also holds a degree in Economics from the University of Southern California. Alex started his career at the Beverly Hills branch of Bear Stearns & Co. in the wealth

    management division. Then in 2007 he moved over to M&N Trading, LLC. where he joined the prop trading desk where he specialized in statistical arbitrage in areas

    such as global yield curve spreads and STIR futures. Here he was mentored by Veteran Trader, Anthony Lazzara, who was once the largest 5 year treasuries floor

    trader at the Chicago Board of Trade and executed as much as $100 billion in interest rate futures contracts annually. Alex founded Aether Analytics in 2009 with

    the intent on providing premier technical analysis research to his clients with a focus only on the methods that have been proven to produce quantifiable edge

    through he scientific research process. Aether Analytics deploys an approach that emphasizes on the objective not the subjective and aims to reveal the

    repeating market fractal patterns that traders or portfolio manager can utilized to manage risk or speculate for profit.

    Alex has also been featured on many prominent news & financial blog networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CBOE TV, Fxstreet.com, Seeitmarket.com,

    Benzinga.com, MTA.org, Yorba Media Radio & First Business News Network.

    Contact

    aetheranalytics.com

    [email protected]

    +1.805.252.7161

    Skype : alexbernal0