AEO 2007 Projectionscapabilities.itron.com/efg/2007/Cymbalsky.pdfAEO 2007 Projections John Cymbalsky...
Transcript of AEO 2007 Projectionscapabilities.itron.com/efg/2007/Cymbalsky.pdfAEO 2007 Projections John Cymbalsky...
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EFG 2007 Meeting 1
AEO 2007 Projections
John CymbalskyPresentation to EFG
May 3, 2007
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EFG 2007 Meeting 2
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
ProjectionsHistory
Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1980-2030billion kilowatthours
Res – 1.3%/yr, Com – 2.0%/yr
Indy – 0.6%/yr
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EFG 2007 Meeting 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
High TechnologyReference
2006 Technology
ProjectionsHistory
Residential Delivered Energy Consumption per Capita, 1990-2030
index, 1990=1
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EFG 2007 Meeting 4
Residential Electricity Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
inde
x 19
80 =
1.0
2006 Technology AEO 2007 Reference High Technology
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EFG 2007 Meeting 5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuels
2005
2015
2030
Residential Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2005, 2015, and 2030
quadrillion Btu
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EFG 2007 Meeting 6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Natural GasFurnaces
Central AirConditioners
Refrigerators New Building ShellEfficiency
2005 Stock
2030 Stock, 2006 Technology Case
2030 Stock, Best Available Technology Case
Efficiency Indicators for Selected Residential Appliances, 2005 and 2030
index, 2005 stock efficiency=1
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EFG 2007 Meeting 7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Reference
High Technology
2006 Technology
ProjectionsHistory
Commercial Delivered Energy Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030
index, 1980=1
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EFG 2007 Meeting 8
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
inde
x 19
80 =
1.0
2006 Technology A E O 2007 Reference High Technology
Commercial Delivered Electricity Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030
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EFG 2007 Meeting 9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuels
2005
2015
2030
Commercial Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel,2005, 2015, and 2030
quadrillion Btu
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EFG 2007 Meeting 10
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Natural Gas Heating Electric Cooling Lighting Refrigeration
2005 Stock
2030 Stock, 2006 Technology Case
2030 Stock, Best Available Technology Case
Efficiency Indicators for Selected Commercial Energy End Users, 2005 and 2030
index, 2005 stock efficiency=1
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EFG 2007 Meeting 11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
1970 2030
Nominal Cents
1.7
13.0
ProjectionsHistory
Average U.S. Retail Electricity Prices, 1970-2030
2005 cents per kilowatthour
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Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
What’s New With Small End Uses
John CymbalskyPresentation to EFG
May 3, 2007
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EFG 2007 Meeting 13
Residential End Use Services
• Heating• Cooling• Water Heating• Refrigeration• Freezers• Cooking• Clothes Drying• Clothes Washing• Coffee Makers• Handheld Rechargeables
• Lighting• Dishwashers• Televisions• PCs• Furnace Fans• Spas• Security Systems• Home Audio• Microwaves• Ceiling Fans
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EFG 2007 Meeting 14
Commercial End Use Services
• Heating• Cooling• Water Heating• Ventilation• Refrigeration• Cooking• Lighting
• Office Equipment (PCs)
• Office Equipment (non-PCs)
• Other
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EFG 2007 Meeting 15
Commercial End Use Services within Other
• Electricity– Coffee Makers– Distribution
Transformers– Non-road Electric
Vehicles– Medical Imaging– Elevators & Escalators– Municipal Water
Services– Miscellaneous Services
– Combined Heat and Power
• Natural Gas– Miscellaneous Services
• Distillate Fuel Oil– Combined Heat and
Power– Miscellaneous Services
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EFG 2007 Meeting 16
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EFG 2007 Meeting 17
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EFG 2007 Meeting 18
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EFG 2007 Meeting 19
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EFG 2007 Meeting 20
Miscellaneous Electricity Uses in the Residential Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (billion kWh)
1,896.51,591.21,364.8Total Residential Sector Electricity Use
655.4514.1384.2Total Miscellaneous432.7325.2232.5Other Miscellaneous Uses
222.7188.9151.7Total, Miscellaneous Uses Studied9.812.015.6DVDs/VCRs10.69.09.8Hand-held Rechargeable Devices92.572.952.1Color TVs32.730.017.1Set-top Boxes12.79.68.3Spas2.41.81.9Security Systems19.016.314.3Microwave Ovens23.520.116.8Ceiling Fans14.012.611.8Home Audio5.54.74.0Coffee Makers
203020152005Electricity Use
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EFG 2007 Meeting 21
Miscellaneous Electricity Uses in the Commercial Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (billion kWh)
2,061.61,548.21,266.7Total Commercial Sector Electricity Use
601.6505.1366.9Total Miscellaneous166.8357.9229.5Other Miscellaneous Uses
27.2147.2137.4Total, Miscellaneous Uses Studied1.325.324.5Wastewater Treatment47.01.21.1Water Supply: Purification1.042.040.0Water Supply: Distribution6.55.55.1Elevators and Escalators (separate in report)12.06.84.0X-ray Machines2.81.80.9Computed Tomography (CT) Scanners4.51.90.6Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)7.15.14.0Non-road Electric Vehicles54.954.654.5Distribution Transformers3.53.02.7Coffee Makers
203020152005Electricity Use
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EFG 2007 Meeting 22
Electricity Use and Market Share for Televisions by Type, 2005 and 2015
40
40
40
Screen Size
(inches)
8 348 19
150234
Digital, Enhanced or High Definition
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Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
Saturation Forecasts
John CymbalskyPresentation to EFG
May 3, 2007
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EFG 2007 Meeting 24
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Electric Space Heating Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 2651 kWh 2030 – 2389 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 3339 kWh 2030 – 2925 kWh
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EFG 2007 Meeting 25
Central AC and Heat Pump Saturation
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
UEC: 2005 – 2982 kWh 2030 – 2321 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 3717 kWh 2030 – 3184 kWh
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EFG 2007 Meeting 26
Room Air Conditioner Saturation
5%
8%
10%
13%
15%
18%
20%
23%
25%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
UEC: 2005 – 1399 kWh 2030 – 1240 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 1026 kWh 2030 – 781 kWh
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EFG 2007 Meeting 27
Ceiling Fans per Household
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
UEC: 2005 – 135 kWh 2030 – 118 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 89 kWh 2030 – 75 kWh
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4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
TVs and Set-Top Boxes per Household
UEC: 2005 – 157 kWh 2030 – 176 kWh
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EFG 2007 Meeting 29
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Electric Cooking Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 470 kWh 2030 – 469 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 448 kWh 2030 – 450 kWh
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Microwave Oven Saturation
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
UEC: 2005 – 132 kWh 2030 – 132 kWh
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0.56
0.58
0.60
0.62
0.64
0.66
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Coffee Maker Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 57 kWh 2030 – 62 kWh
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1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.20
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Refrigerators per Household
UEC: 2005 – 856 kWh 2030 – 659 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 862 kWh 2030 – 657 kWh
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21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Freezer Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 1040 kWh 2030 – 856 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 1012 kWh 2030 – 845 kWh
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50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Dishwasher Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 116 kWh 2030 – 106 kWh
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Clothes Washer Saturation
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
UEC: 2005 – 111 kWh 2030 – 69 kWh
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50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Electric Clothes Dryer Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 1045 kWh 2030 – 928 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 1093 kWh 2030 – 967 kWh
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35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Electric Water Heater Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 2569 kWh 2030 – 2119 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 2531 kWh 2030 – 2113 kWh
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75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Personal Computer Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 253 kWh 2030 – 464 kWh
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40
45
50
55
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Lights per Household
UEC: 2005 – 655 kWh 2030 – 712 kWh
UEC: 2005 – 636 kWh 2030 – 680 kWh
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80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Home Audio Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 120 kWh 2030 – 110 kWh
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20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Home Security System Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 75 kWh 2030 – 44 kWh
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
US AVG So. Atl.
Portable Electric Spa (Hot Tub) Saturation
UEC: 2005 – 2525 kWh 2030 – 2375 kWh
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EFG 2007 Meeting 43
A Change in the Weather –Changing HDD/CDD Normals
John CymbalskyPresentation to EFG
May 3, 2007
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EFG 2007 Meeting 44
AEO 2007 Reference Case
• “Normal” Based on 1977-2006 Average• 2001-2006 NOAA Data Adjusted for State
Population Weights Post-2000 Census• Heating and Cooling Degree-Days
Change Over Projection Period Based on State Population Shifts (2007-2030)– Cooling Degree-Days Increase 8.3 percent– Heating Degree-Days Decrease 4.3 percent
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EFG 2007 Meeting 45
Weather Scenarios
• Scenario 1: 10 Year Rolling Average– Cooling Degree-Days Increase 5% in 2030– Heating Degree-Days Decrease 5% in 2030– Total Energy Consumption Decreases 0.2% in 2030– Carbon Emissions Increase 0.2% in 2030– Natural Gas Consumption Decreases 0.4% in 2030– Natural Gas Prices Decrease by 0.5% in 2030– Cooling Energy Increases 5.2% in 2030– Heating Energy Decreases 3.8% in 2030– Total Energy Expenditures Decrease
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Weather Scenarios - Continued• Scenario 2: 1992-2006 Trendline
– Roughly Similar to ORNL “3 degree increase by 2025 scenario”
– Cooling Degree-Days Increase 30% in 2030– Heating Degree-Days Decrease 21% in 2030– Total Energy Consumption Decreases 0.4% in 2030– Carbon Emissions Unchanged in 2030– Natural Gas Consumption Decreases 0.7% in 2030– Natural Gas Prices Decrease by 1.1% in 2030– Cooling Energy Increases 29.6% in 2030– Heating Energy Decreases 14.2% in 2030– Total Energy Expenditures Increase
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EFG 2007 Meeting 47
Cooling Degree Days
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CDD-30 YEAR (AEO) CDD-10 YEAR ROLL CDD-TREND 1992-2006
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Heating Degree Days
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
HDD-30 YEAR (AEO) HDD-10 YEAR ROLL HDD-TREND 1992-2006
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Change in Energy Consumption, 2030 (quadrillion Btu)Scenario 1: 10-Year Moving Average
0.00
-0.22
0.13
0.00
0.22
0.00
-0.26
0.040.00
-0.23
0.03
-0.03
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
Buildings Electric Generators
Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Total
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EFG 2007 Meeting 50
Change in Energy, 2030 (quadrillion Btu)Scenario 2: 1992-2006 Trendline
-0.82
0.00
-0.26-0.14
-0.03
0.66
0.24
0.00 0.00
0.29
-0.73
0.57
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Buildings Electric Generators
Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Total
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Electricity Sales in Alternative Warming Scenarios(billion kilowatthours)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
reference 30-year rolling 10-year trend 1992-2006
Warming impact on electricity sales through 2030 is small
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EFG 2007 Meeting 52
2030 Load Curve in Alternative Warming Scenarios(gigawatts)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
trend 1992-2006 reference 30 year rolling 10-year
Shift from 30-year to 10-year rolling CDD and HDD averages has little impact on load curves. Only extreme shift to 1992 (near minimum CDDs in last 15 years) to 2006 (near maximum in last 15 years) trend leads to strong growth in peak demand.
Higher Summer
Lower Winter
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EFG 2007 Meeting 53
Summary• Warming Scenarios Decrease Overall Energy
Consumption• Increases in Natural Gas Consumption in the Power
Sector More Than Offset by Decreases in Natural Gas Consumption in the Buildings Sector
• Greater warming leads to higher summer loads, lower winter loads and greater dependence on natural gas simple combustion turbines and combined cycle plants
• Carbon Emissions Not Affected Much• Natural Gas Prices Not Affected Much• Total Energy Expenditures Not Affected Much
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EFG 2007 Meeting 54
2005 Max and Min Load Days, PJM-E
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hours of the Day
Meg
awat
ts
27-Jul 30-May
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